Cliff Lee signs with Phillies

[Rooftop Shots]

On paper, they're clearly the best. But in reality, who knows. I remember ESPN was talking about our 2006 rotation being among the best ever, and we all know how that worked out.

 

I agree!

No doubt that the Phils rotation is beyong the realm of insanity, but how many times has it happened where a team looks indestructable on paper, and then when the year passes by, you say, "WOW" We were supposed to have a "win win" year?

The Phils DO HAVE a very intimidating roation, but........................

In 2005 we had 4 complete game winners back to back to back to back in post season play.

That will also send a strong message of intimidation as well for the following season.

If we remember.........EVERYONE had the "willies" just wondering what we were going to be like.

BUT................IN BASEBALL......YOU JUST NEVER KNOW!

[Paint it Black]

Okay. So who is the 4th starter? Who is the 5th starter until Peavy is back in July? All of this assumes you don't think Gardner didn't have a fluky year last year.

And for the record, I'm all for trading Floyd. Just not for speedy fast guys who are reliant on batting average who who can be found in almost every organization.

[3E8]

It's funny. In 4 years, the Phillies will have the two worst contracts in baseball on one team (Lee and Howard). If you really think a pitcher three years removed from pitching himself back into the big leagues will be worth the money in five years, well then I have ice to sell you in Alaska.

He's a completely different pitcher than he was before 2008. Arguably the best in baseball since that time. With nearly 700 IP, we may be able to call the comeback legit at this point. And since Lee is a finesse pitcher, he skills should be more resilient to age than guys who rely on high velocity for success.

[Leonard Washington]

And for the record, I'm all for trading Floyd. Just not for speedy fast guys who are reliant on batting average who who can be found in almost every organization.

Gardner's OBP is not at all overly reliant on his batting average. He's always had a high BB% as a pro.

[3E8]

Brett Gardner? I'd say Floyd is worth Gardner.

 

Plus, he's getting wasted by the Yankees because of Derek Jeter.

Don't see the Yankees wanting to trade their 5-win OF with 2 years of service time for Gavin Floyd.

[Paint it Black]

He's a completely different pitcher than he was before 2008. Arguably the best in baseball since that time. With nearly 700 IP, we may be able to call the comeback legit at this point. And since Lee is a finesse pitcher, he skills should be more resilient to age than guys who rely on high velocity for success.

Couldn't disagree more. A command pitcher in his early 30's. When he doesn't have the command it's pretty much below average (see World Series Game 1). As Kevin Goldstein of BP put it the other day "The chances of Lee being the pitcher he's been over the last few seasons two years from now are slim, four years from now, tiny, and six years from now? Unfathomable." (obviously written before tonight, but replace "six" with "five" and it's still true.

[chw42]

Don't see the Yankees wanting to trade their 5-win OF with 2 years of service time for Gavin Floyd.

 

2.1 of that WAR was due to UZR. I think Gardner is a very, very good fielder, but I don't know if he's THAT good.

 

DRS had him at +13. FSR had him at +12. I think he's a +12-15 fielder on average. So you can probably shave off a whole win off his WAR.

 

Floyd's also highly affordable for the Yankees for the next 3 years.

[Paint it Black]

Gardner's OBP is not at all overly reliant on his batting average. He's always had a high BB% as a pro.

But don't we already have a "try hard grindy speedy (add bad baseball verb here) basically 4th OF guy starting, named Juan Pierre?

[chw42]

But don't we already have a "try hard grindy speedy (add bad baseball verb here) basically 4th OF guy starting, named Juan Pierre?

 

Pierre's walk rate is about half of Gardner's.

[Paint it Black]

Again, someone explain to me who is starting in place of Floyd? Seriously I can't argue that no starter has been more fluky on this team, but if you do trade him there is not anything in the system people.

[witesoxfan]

Don't see the Yankees wanting to trade their 5-win OF with 2 years of service time for Gavin Floyd.

 

You don't say?

 

I bet they might be willing to move their 4-win right fielder for him, though something tells me the White Sox don't want to deal with Nick Swisher again.

[Paint it Black]

Pierre's walk rate is about half of Gardner's.

I understand this. I'm just not a believer in one year. I saw him as a 4th OF before 2010 and I still do.

[hitlesswonder]

Don't see the Yankees wanting to trade their 5-win OF with 2 years of service time for Gavin Floyd.

 

It's potentially 3 years...there's a club option for 2013 in Floyd's deal. Floyd has been a 4 WAR pitcher the last couple of years and has a pretty friendly contract. I don't think the Yankees will trade gardner, but I don't think the deal is hugely lopsided given that Gardner has had 1 great year so far, pitching is scarce, and the Yankees have to be concerned (Floyd would be more valuable to them than lots of other teams).

 

I could see the Sox trading Danks or Floyd for Joba and a catching prospect (Romine?). Not saying that I think that would be wise, just that it could happen....

[chw42]

I understand this. I'm just not a believer in one year. I saw him as a 4th OF before 2010 and I still do.

 

I don't see how it's bad to have a guy who's put up wOBAs of .338 and .357 purely based off of on base percentage. The guy doesn't have much power, but he's capable of getting on base at a very good clip (probably .360-.370). Add on 50 SB speed and lots of range in the OF and I think you have yourself a hell of a leadoff hitter.

 

Trade Floyd for him, put him in center and move Rios to right. You'll have one of the best defensive outfields in all of baseball. Quentin ends up getting traded, for who? I don't know, that's not my job. But you'll save money in this trade and you can probably grab a fifth starter from somewhere or trade Quentin for a starter.

Edited December 14, 2010 by chw42

[Paint it Black]

The guy doesn't have much power

 

There's the answer to your question.

 

I just don't believe a sold 3 is worth a hitter without any power who is a slappy OBP guy (were talking about a guy who projected a bench guy pretty much his whole minor league career).

 

[3E8]

2.1 of that WAR was due to UZR. I think Gardner is a very, very good fielder, but I don't know if he's THAT good.

 

DRS had him at +13. FSR had him at +12. I think he's a +12-15 fielder on average. So you can probably shave off a whole win off his WAR.

 

Floyd's also highly affordable for the Yankees for the next 3 years.

Fine, call Gardner a 4-win OF. He's still making the league minimum (which in turn means he's club controlled longer) and younger than Floyd while being of equal production. And that was just in his first full season at the major league level. It doesn't make sense for the Yankees to let him go for Floyd.

[Kalapse]

?

 

What two trades? It was all one deal.

 

Anyways, it's all semantics.

It really is semantics.

 

d'Arnaud, Drabek and Taylor for Halladay

 

and

 

Lee for Aumont, Ramirez and Gillies

 

In reality they're 2 separate trades taking place at the same time, there's no crossover with the prospects, the Phillies traded their own prospects for Halladay and the Mariners traded their own prospects for Lee. Aside from finances the trading of Lee did not facilitate the trade for Halladay.

[3E8]

It's potentially 3 years...there's a club option for 2013 in Floyd's deal. Floyd has been a 4 WAR pitcher the last couple of years and has a pretty friendly contract. I don't think the Yankees will trade gardner, but I don't think the deal is hugely lopsided given that Gardner has had 1 great year so far, pitching is scarce, and the Yankees have to be concerned (Floyd would be more valuable to them than lots of other teams).

 

I could see the Sox trading Danks or Floyd for Joba and a catching prospect (Romine?). Not saying that I think that would be wise, just that it could happen....

The 2 years I stated was the amount of service time Gardner has accrued, not the length of Floyd's remaining contract.

[chw42]

Fine, call Gardner a 4-win OF. He's still making the league minimum (which in turn means he's club controlled longer) and younger than Floyd while being of equal production. And that was just in his first full season at the major league level. It doesn't make sense for the Yankees to let him go for Floyd.

 

The Yankees need pitching a lot more than on base percentage in the 9 hole.

[Paint it Black]

Trade Floyd for him, put him in center and move Rios to right. You'll have one of the best defensive outfields in all of baseball. Quentin ends up getting traded, for who? I don't know, that's not my job. But you'll save money in this trade and you can probably grab a fifth starter from somewhere or trade Quentin for a starter.

Man, Rios is also a better center fielder. There's no doubt in my mind about that. I'm okay with trading Quentin, but when you have basically 2 corner OF's (again I'm objecting to Rios moving from CF; instead play Gardner and Pierre in the corners) who have no power. Enjoy that. Or s*** even if you want to move Rios to RF you still have two OF spots with below average power without any different power sources coming from somewhere else.

[3E8]

There's the answer to your question.

 

I just don't believe a sold 3 is worth a hitter without any power who is a slappy OBP guy (were talking about a guy who projected a bench guy pretty much his whole minor league career).

You should read the comparative value between a point of OBP and a point of SLG.

[chw42]

Man, Rios is also a better center fielder. There's no doubt in my mind about that. I'm okay with trading Quentin, but when you have basically 2 corner OF's (again I'm objecting to Rios moving from CF; instead play Gardner and Pierre in the corners) who have no power. Enjoy that. Or s*** even if you want to move Rios to RF you still have two OF spots with below average power without any different power sources coming from somewhere else.

 

So you have two outfielders with little power and one with good power.

 

What's wrong with that? A 3-4-5 of Rios, Dunn, and Konerko will provide more than enough power. Add in Alexei's above average power for a SS and Beckham's decent power for a 2B and you're really not lacking much pop. Whatever power you lose from Quentin should be made up with the defense Gardner provides and then some.

Edited December 14, 2010 by chw42

[Paint it Black]

Fine, call Gardner a 4-win OF. He's still making the league minimum (which in turn means he's club controlled longer) and younger than Floyd while being of equal production. And that was just in his first full season at the major league level. It doesn't make sense for the Yankees to let him go for Floyd.

Wait. So slightly above average OF's are as valuable as established 3rd starters? I don't mean to be an ass, but in what baseball universe is this true?

 

Again, I'm still waiting for someone to tell me who starts in Floyd's sport and gives HALF the value that Floyd is worth.

[3E8]

The Yankees need pitching a lot more than on base percentage in the 9 hole.

They probably need to not trade a piece for another of equal value costing 10x more.

[bigruss]

Wait. So slightly above average OF's are as valuable as established 3rd starters? I don't mean to be an ass, but in what baseball universe is this true?

 

Again, I'm still waiting for someone to tell me who starts in Floyd's sport and gives HALF the value that Floyd is worth.

If you got the Yanks to take on Teahen's contract you could free up enough to go after someone like Pavano (potentially).