Cliff Lee signs with Phillies

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

5yrs/$115M (23M/per) seems to be the deal.

[Paint it Black]

So you have two outfielders with little power and one with good power.

 

What's wrong with that? A 3-4-5 of Rios, Dunn, and Konerko will provide more than enough power. Add in Alexei's above average power for a SS and Beckham's decent power for a 2B and you're really not lacking much pop. Whatever power you lose from Quentin should be made up with the defense Gardner provides and then some.

Because your assuming Konerko isn't due for a drop off in offensive production. Plus you kinda forget the White Sox play 81 games in a hitters park where power really, really matters. Oh and you don't play most of your games in the NL where you can get away with an awful outfield. Further, you assume that Pierre can sustain an OBP that is highly tied to his batting average.

[hitlesswonder]

Wait. So slightly above average OF's are as valuable as established 3rd starters? I don't mean to be an ass, but in what baseball universe is this true?

 

Again, I'm still waiting for someone to tell me who starts in Floyd's sport and gives HALF the value that Floyd is worth.

 

A high-OBP guy with good D that plays everyday will generate more wins than a starter of Floyd's caliber. The question is simply whether you think Gardner will be as good or better than he was last season. For the Yankees, I guess the question also involves how desperate they are for pitching and if they think they could fill Gardner's spot through other means. In any case, I don't think the Yankees would do the deal.

 

In any case I think the Sox will be looking to trade a starting pitcher or position player for middle relief...

[3E8]

Wait. So slightly above average OF's are as valuable as established 3rd starters?

Gardener was worth more than Floyd last season. A full win more (fangraphs or B-R.com).

 

Again, I'm still waiting for someone to tell me who starts in Floyd's sport and gives HALF the value that Floyd is worth.

This is somewhat of the original point I was trying to bring up. Any trade of our pitchers for other major league ready talent is likely to end up as a wash since we are in 'win now' mode and on a budget. Just reshuffling wins, borrowed from the starting rotation.

[Paint it Black]

If you got the Yanks to take on Teahen's contract you could free up enough to go after someone like Pavano (potentially).

Teahen instantly becomes the Yankee's like 29th man. He's untradeable.

[chw42]

I ran the lineup with Quentin hitting 6th back a week ago with Bill James' projected numbers.

 

That lineup came out to 5.15 runs per game.

 

I just ran this lineup through and got 5.14. It's a .01 run difference per game, or 1.62 runs over the course of the entire year.

 

The offense would end up losing less than .2 WAR from the absence of Quentin on offense.

 

However, Gardner in CF is probably a +8-10 fielder. Rios in right is probably a +12-15 fielder. Quentin was a -20 something last year. So right off the bat, you'd be gaining around 3 wins on defense.

 

If your objection to this Gardner idea is mostly about his lack of production, it's simply not true. Unless Carlos goes 2008 ape s*** again, he's not a better overall player than Brett Gardner.

 

[Paint it Black]

A high-OBP guy with good D that plays everyday will generate more wins than a starter of Floyd's caliber. The question is simply whether you think Gardner will be as good or better than he was last season. For the Yankees, I guess the question also involves how desperate they are for pitching and if they think they could fill Gardner's spot through other means. In any case, I don't think the Yankees would do the deal.

 

In any case I think the Sox will be looking to trade a starting pitcher or position player for middle relief...

True, assuming you have a league average pitching to plug in Floyd's spot (which you don't). I just don't see the value/point in having White Juan Pierre.

[bigruss]

Teahen instantly becomes the Yankee's like 29th man. He's untradeable.

They can absorb his contract and would be a decent bench option for them.

[chw42]

True, assuming you have a league average pitching to plug in Floyd's spot (which you don't). I just don't see the value/point in having White Juan Pierre.

 

Juan Pierre was hella good when he was in his mid 20s.

[chw42]

They can absorb his contract and would be a decent bench option for them.

 

It'd be like Swisher trade volume 2. Except this time, the player they get sucks and we're not going to be the losers of the deal.

Edited December 14, 2010 by chw42

[Paint it Black]

Gardener was worth more than Floyd last season. A full win more (fangraphs or B-R.com).

 

 

This is somewhat of the original point I was trying to bring up. Any trade of our pitchers for other major league ready talent is likely to end up as a wash since we are in 'win now' mode and on a budget. Just reshuffling wins, borrowed from the starting rotation.

Last season. But I'd still take Floyd over the life of his career (given position, likeliness to repeat success etc) (and again, I have never ever been a huge Floyd fan).

 

I'm sorry if I came off as an asshole. It's more me thinking about how it's 12:30 am, the Cliff Lee signing intrigues me, yet I have to wake up at 6am so I be at work at 8 am. And I keep drinking beer after beer. Thanks 3E8 for the stimulating disucssion. I don't get to do this much in real life, thus, I get pretty passionate when I get the chance.

Edited December 14, 2010 by Paint it Black

[sircaffey]

Gardener was worth more than Floyd last season. A full win more (fangraphs or B-R.com).

Are we talking WAR here? If so, Gardner was "worth" more than Hamels, Oswalt, Sabathia...I'll stop now.

[Paint it Black]

It'd be like Swisher trade volume 2. Except this time, the player they get sucks and we're not going to be the losers of the deal.

Implying we got good players the first time around.

[kjshoe04]

Are we talking WAR here? If so, Gardner was "worth" more than Hamels, Oswalt, Sabathia...I'll stop now.

Yeah, although a very good stat, people use it as an end all sometimes and it's starting to get old. It has flaws just like any other stat.

[chw42]

Are we talking WAR here? If so, Gardner was "worth" more than Hamels, Oswalt, Sabathia...I'll stop now.

 

One year of WAR doesn't mean he's better than players who had lower WAR, especially for a guy like Gardner, who's still sort of unproven and had about 1/3 of his WAR based on UZR.

 

Andres Torres put up a 6 WAR last year, is he really better than say, Jayson Werth? Probably not, but he probably did provide more value to the Giants in 2010 than Werth did for the Phillies. That 6 WAR figure doesn't really mean too much as to how the two will perform in 2011.

Edited December 14, 2010 by chw42

[sircaffey]

Yeah, although a very good stat, people use it as an end all sometimes and it's starting to get old. It has flaws just like any other stat.

Yeah it's pretty much bulls*** when comparing hitters to pitchers. It holds some relevance between like players. 100% worthless when comparing Brett Gardner to Gavin Floyd.

[chw42]

Yeah it's pretty much bulls*** when comparing hitters to pitchers. It holds some relevance between like players. 100% worthless when comparing Brett Gardner to Gavin Floyd.

 

It is better when comparing position players to position players or pitchers to pitchers, but it's not 100% worthless.

 

Plus, pitching WAR is calculated very differently depending on where you're looking.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

[3E8]

Yeah it's pretty much bulls*** when comparing hitters to pitchers. It holds some relevance between like players. 100% worthless when comparing Brett Gardner to Gavin Floyd.

It's not worthless. Position players produce runs through offense and can prevent runs with defense. Pitchers prevent runs based on how effective they are. All about runs. Measure how much better each is at providing/preventing runs than a replacement player, and you have a gauge for the value of each to a team. One can be more valuable to a team than the other, or worth more.

 

As chw42 said, the defensive WAR component can fluctuate significantly from year-to-year. Hence Gardner's impressive WAR total from 2010. But he has shown to be a plus-defensive player and always maintained an above-average walk rate. I don't see either of those skills going away, and those along with his speed are what make him such a valuable asset.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Took a bunch of meds yesterday because I was sick and clunked out around 9. Just waking up and saw this s***. I have no words, really. Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Hamels. It doesn't even look or sound right. Lee must've really loved it in Philly. Hard to believe that just 5-6 years ago the Phillies were a doormat.

[hogan873]

I'm glad to see the Yankees not landing Lee. Seems that their money did them no good this time around. It's early, but they are looking like losers of the offseason so far. No doubt they will make a move or two shortly and make themselves look better.

 

As far as the Phillies rotation...wow. Thankfully they are in the NL.

[Brian]

One of my friends is a Yankee fan and he kept saying, "don't worry, we always get what we want."

 

This is great from my perspective.

 

They better hope Oswalt stays healthy and hamels does not go back to sucking.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Yankees fans from NYYfans.com have gone into full-blown meltdown mode. They actually think they should go "all-out" for one of Josh Johnson or Felix Hernandez now. I will say that if I'm KW and Cashman offers up Jesus Montero as a starting point for John Danks that I'm definitely listening. Their rotation (Yankees) is a mess right now. They could get really desperate.

[daa84]

One of my friends is a Yankee fan and he kept saying, "don't worry, we always get what we want."

 

This is great from my perspective.

 

They better hope Oswalt stays healthy and hamels does not go back to sucking.

agreed....and its a decent possibility. Oswalt was trending in the wrong direction before his rebound year last year (ERAs of 3.18, 3.54, 4.12).

 

Disclaimer: By no means am I about to say that cliff Lee is bad or anything like that.

I do think cliff lee is overrated though. He's being paid top 5 starter money, for a guy who is 26-22 with roughly a 3.20 ERA over the last two seasons. Still very good numbers, but given the fact that he is on the wrong side of 30, and is just 3 years removed from being a 29 year old with a 6.29 ERA who got sent back to the minors, I think there is considerably more risk in these deal than most people realize.

[Jordan4life_2007]

agreed....and its a decent possibility. Oswalt was trending in the wrong direction before his rebound year last year (ERAs of 3.18, 3.54, 4.12).

 

Disclaimer: By no means am I about to say that cliff Lee is bad or anything like that.

I do think cliff lee is overrated though. He's being paid top 5 starter money, for a guy who is 26-22 with roughly a 3.20 ERA over the last two seasons. Still very good numbers, but given the fact that he is on the wrong side of 30, and is just 3 years removed from being a 29 year old with a 6.29 ERA who got sent back to the minors, I think there is considerably more risk in these deal than most people realize.

 

Lee was going to get paid. There was no way around this fact. All those other factors you mentioned (save the 26-22 record, which IMO means nothing) are legit. But nobody was getting Lee for 3 years and 30 million. Just wasn't happening. The Phillies are now the PROHIBITIVE NL favorite and likely overall favorite save the Red Sox. If they can push out out a title or two in the next 3-4 years then they (the Phillies) win.

Edited December 14, 2010 by Jordan4life