Sox an Expensive 85 win team?

[Marty34]

I believe we'll see big performance drops from Buehrle and Konerko next year. My biggest concern is I don't see the top of the Sox rotation being able to compensate for Buehrle and the 5th spot.

[BigSqwert]

[sayitaintso]

Soxtalk should institute a "like" button, because I'd be all over this.

[Jake]

Soxtalk should institute a "like" button, because I'd be all over this.

 

Like.

[Rowand44]

The only thing you got right in your post is that Konerko is going to regress from last season, that's a 100 percent fact but Adam Dunn will more than make up for that. Also, I'm not sure why everyone thinks Mark is going to fall back, he'll be just fine.

 

I mean, who knows, there's been a ton of Sox teams that have severely disappointed me but barring injury, I just can't see how this is only an 85 win group.

[Dick Allen]

I believe we'll see big performance drops from Buehrle and Konerko next year. My biggest concern is I don't see the top of the Sox rotation being able to compensate for Buehrle and the 5th spot.

Even with that drop off if it happens, the Sox are still sitting pretty. Cleveland and KC suck. Detroit has more holes than Ron Karkovice's face and Minnesota has about 12 spots to fill, and do you really think even if they bring Carl Pavano back he will perform anywhere near how he did in 2010?

[knightni]

They won 88 with no Peavy and Mark f***ing Kotsay.

 

This team will not regress to 85 unless some horrible injuries happen.

[daggins]

Q, Beckham bad - 85-88 wins

Q, Beckham good - 90+ wins

 

SCIENTIFIC LIKE

[Balta1701]

Q, Beckham bad - 85-88 wins

Q, Beckham good - 90+ wins

 

SCIENTIFIC LIKE

I said that last year about Quentin. This year, I think we're a ton deeper.

[Balta1701]

I believe we'll see big performance drops from Buehrle and Konerko next year. My biggest concern is I don't see the top of the Sox rotation being able to compensate for Buehrle and the 5th spot.

I understand the logic on Konerko, but Buehrle, there's no obvious reason to think he's going to go down in his stats. His numbers last year weren't obviously bad, and on top of it, he looked to be somewhat unlucky in his stats. Career high in BABIP, with no obvious increase in things like the Line Drive rate he gave up last year (i.e. he gave up more hits but without giving up more walks or harder hit balls).

[NorthSideSox72]

I believe we'll see big performance drops from Buehrle and Konerko next year. My biggest concern is I don't see the top of the Sox rotation being able to compensate for Buehrle and the 5th spot.

Looking at MB's career, there seems a high likelihood he improves, not drops, let a long a big drop. You are probably right on PK though.

 

And right now, the 5th spot is Edwin Jackson or Chris Sale (if Peavy isn't ready Opening Day).

 

You are saying an 88 win team, who really had only one player put up numbers well above his career averages (PK), and lost their best SP to injury... and has since then replaced Kotsay with Dunn, bolstered the bullpen has this Chris Sale guy now... is going to regress to 85 wins? Anything is possible, but I'd call that very, very unlikely, barring major injury issues.

 

[hogan873]

On paper, this team is better than last year's team. The lineup is much better, and the starting pitching is about the same...better if Peavy comes back healthy. And the bullpen looks fairly solid right now. Konerko will most likely not repeat 2010, but he could still be a .270, 30 HR, 90+ RBI guy. Buehrle may actually be better, as someone pointed out he was a bit unlucky at times. Realistically, this team should be a 90+ win team. A lot will depend on how Alexei, Gordon, and Rios come out of the gate.

[Balta1701]

On paper, this team is better than last year's team. The lineup is much better, and the starting pitching is about the same...better if Peavy comes back healthy. And the bullpen looks fairly solid right now. Konerko will most likely not repeat 2010, but he could still be a .270, 30 HR, 90+ RBI guy. Buehrle may actually be better, as someone pointed out he was a bit unlucky at times. Realistically, this team should be a 90+ win team. A lot will depend on how Alexei, Gordon, and Rios come out of the gate.

There are 2 obvious "Losses" from the lineup in terms of production. First, we've lost Andruw Jones, who was legitimately good for a few wins last year. Second, we've probably gone from the MVPaulie to the regular 30-ish HR paulie, which is a win or two as well. That production on its own solely ought to be made up by having Dunn in the lineup instead of Kotsay.

 

You could add in that Rios might not have the same May that he did last year again and thus have fewer wins, that would hurt as well. Pierre could take another step backwards, but honestly I doubt that as consistent as he's been. Quentin could be even worse, but if that happens he's going to be replaced by De Aza or someone like that mid-season. On top of that, we've removed a negative player from 3b and at least replaced with nonnegative defense (Teahen to Morel).

 

Alexei had a good year last year, but we all know he still has even better in him if he can get past the crappy start. Outside of Konerko and Rios, it's hard to point at anyone in the lineup and say "this guy had a career year last year". Quentin, Beckham, Alexei, Morel, AJ, there's legitimately 5 guys who have a ton of upside on offense.

[jhonnydanks]

162-0 get it get it

 

 

[BigSqwert]

162-0 get it get it

I dunno. Quentin's poor defense could cost us a game or 2.

[thxfrthmmrs]

if KW can pull off a CQ and teahen or viceido for hunter pence then sign another quality reliever, then this team has a legit shot.

[LittleHurt05]

I dunno. Quentin's poor defense could cost us a game or 2.

 

Luckily, that game or 2 will be the days that Dunn hits 5 homers in a game. 162-0 it is.

[elrockinMT]

 

 

THIS!

[3E8]

The difference between the Sox being a 90+ win playoff team and sitting at home in Oct in this current roster are Peavy and Quentin. All players have variation in performance throughout their career, but that range of Peavy/Quentin is large. If you combined their best seasons, the two alone would be worth over 10 wins. But both are injury prone, Quentin's range in RF is detrimental, and both could cause their contribution to be next to nothing. A conservative estimate of their 2011 combined worth is 3 wins considering Peavy has to come back from a serious injury and Quentin's defense remains quite poor. Projecting the rest of the roster out, those 3 wins from Peavy/Quentin leaves us at a high-80s win team currently.

[elrockinMT]

The only thing you got right in your post is that Konerko is going to regress from last season, that's a 100 percent fact but Adam Dunn will more than make up for that. Also, I'm not sure why everyone thinks Mark is going to fall back, he'll be just fine.

 

I mean, who knows, there's been a ton of Sox teams that have severely disappointed me but barring injury, I just can't see how this is only an 85 win group.

 

 

Maybe he will hit 39 homers and drive in 115 runs. This team should be considered the top contender in the AL Central and a legit AL champion contender too

[Balta1701]

The difference between the Sox being a 90+ win playoff team and sitting at home in Oct in this current roster are Peavy and Quentin. All players have variation in performance throughout their career, but that range of Peavy/Quentin is large. If you combined their best seasons, the two alone would be worth over 10 wins. But both are injury prone, Quentin's range in RF is detrimental, and both could cause their contribution to be next to nothing. A conservative estimate of their 2011 combined worth is 3 wins considering Peavy has to come back from a serious injury and Quentin's defense remains quite poor. Projecting the rest of the roster out, those 3 wins from Peavy/Quentin leaves us at a high-80s win team currently.

Last year, I'd have agreed with you, but I'd have done so because I though, with no DH and Jenks in the closer's spot, that we were counting on those 2 for a lot. This year, with Sale as the current 6th starter option and Dunn in that lineup, I don't think we're counting on those guys for nearly as much.

[ptatc]

There are 2 obvious "Losses" from the lineup in terms of production. First, we've lost Andruw Jones, who was legitimately good for a few wins last year. Second, we've probably gone from the MVPaulie to the regular 30-ish HR paulie, which is a win or two as well. That production on its own solely ought to be made up by having Dunn in the lineup instead of Kotsay.

 

You could add in that Rios might not have the same May that he did last year again and thus have fewer wins, that would hurt as well. Pierre could take another step backwards, but honestly I doubt that as consistent as he's been. Quentin could be even worse, but if that happens he's going to be replaced by De Aza or someone like that mid-season. On top of that, we've removed a negative player from 3b and at least replaced with nonnegative defense (Teahen to Morel).

 

Alexei had a good year last year, but we all know he still has even better in him if he can get past the crappy start. Outside of Konerko and Rios, it's hard to point at anyone in the lineup and say "this guy had a career year last year". Quentin, Beckham, Alexei, Morel, AJ, there's legitimately 5 guys who have a ton of upside on offense.

 

one thing that I think will help offset the "losses" is a defensive improvement from Morel. I think one of the most important benefits from the dunn signing is that with that offense improvement, the sox can allow Morel to play consistently and not stress as much if he lacks production early.

 

As much as people are happy about the offense improving, the pitching and defense will still determine if the sox are successful this year.

[3E8]

Last year, I'd have agreed with you, but I'd have done so because I though, with no DH and Jenks in the closer's spot, that we were counting on those 2 for a lot. This year, with Sale as the current 6th starter option and Dunn in that lineup, I don't think we're counting on those guys for nearly as much.

"Counting on" them or not, they will provide a certain level of production that the most difficult to estimate and has potential to variate the most. The rest of the current roster is more consistent and easier to accurately estimate. I'm not saying these two need to have the pressure on their shoulders to carry us to the postseason. Simply, they have both displayed the talent in the past that hopefully reappears in 2011 to help us eclipse 90 wins. Sale as a 6th starter option is not comforting. First, his value to the bullpen is removed for whatever length of time he would start. Then, his value in the rotation would have to be more than that in the pen to be beneficial. Which is very dubious when he suddenly has to throw 6 innings instead of 1. But I don't worry about that because Sale won't be starting for the Sox.

[elrockinMT]

The difference between the Sox being a 90+ win playoff team and sitting at home in Oct in this current roster are Peavy and Quentin. All players have variation in performance throughout their career, but that range of Peavy/Quentin is large. If you combined their best seasons, the two alone would be worth over 10 wins. But both are injury prone, Quentin's range in RF is detrimental, and both could cause their contribution to be next to nothing. A conservative estimate of their 2011 combined worth is 3 wins considering Peavy has to come back from a serious injury and Quentin's defense remains quite poor. Projecting the rest of the roster out, those 3 wins from Peavy/Quentin leaves us at a high-80s win team currently.

 

Carlos Quentin stats for the SEASON 131 453 73 110 217 doubles 25 triples 2 homers 26 RBI's 87 50 3 83 2 2 .243 .342 .479 .821 0.80

 

Me thinks you try and analyze too much and see only the black cloud of despair. CQ has a ton of talent and was coming back around last year after those injuries. harness that drive he has and we will see a 30-40 homer 100 plus RBI man again. Be patient instead of calling for the beheading of every player who has an off year at times.

[dpd9189]

Carlos Quentin stats for the SEASON 131 453 73 110 217 doubles 25 triples 2 homers 26 RBI's 87 50 3 83 2 2 .243 .342 .479 .821 0.80

 

Me thinks you try and analyze too much and see only the black cloud of despair. CQ has a ton of talent and was coming back around last year after those injuries. harness that drive he has and we will see a 30-40 homer 100 plus RBI man again. Be patient instead of calling for the beheading of every player who has an off year at times.

 

I'm holding off on making any predictions until right before the season starts, alot can happen between now and then.