Greinke traded to the Brewers

[Balta1701]

what have these organizations managed to achieve that ours has not?

I'd say..."luck". There might be a big of weighting done by having more picks or something like that, or having the GM in San Diego bail you out, but 10 years ago...the Red Sox weren't exactly a team playing with prospects, while the White Sox had the #1 rated system in baseball while being a winning team.

 

It flips back and forth.

[iamshack]

I actually think it's somewhat different. I think it's like BABIP. When you draft, even if you do all the scouting in the world correctly, you've still got a 15% chance of hitting, or something like that. If you hold onto enough guys and stockpile enough picks, then eventually you're going to hit a hot streak, while another team could do just as well with everything and hit a cold streak, yet the management of the team on the hot streak would be idolized, while people get fired and ridiculed from the unlucky team.

But ultimately the moment of truth with many of these picks is how they translate minor league success, namely double-a success, to the major leagues. Until then, unless you're trading these prospects for proven MLB talent, they get you nothing other than a high rating in some baseball publication.

 

As of today, that's all this Kansas City system has netted them, other than some hope with the fan base.

[Balta1701]

But ultimately the moment of truth with many of these picks is how they translate minor league success, namely double-a success, to the major leagues. Until then, unless you're trading these prospects for proven MLB talent, they get you nothing other than a high rating in some baseball publication.

 

As of today, that's all this Kansas City system has netted them, other than some hope with the fan base.

If I compare KC to others, KC I can't put into the boat with Boston, because even if everything was done right, they'd never be a regular competitor; they need to do like the Rays. Have a bunch of guys who all come up and hit at the same time, along with a veteran or two who is still under their control, and maybe a successful reclamation project or two, then try to make a serious 1-2 year run, then be ready to dismantle before guys hit FA.

[iamshack]

I'd say..."luck". There might be a big of weighting done by having more picks or something like that, or having the GM in San Diego bail you out, but 10 years ago...the Red Sox weren't exactly a team playing with prospects, while the White Sox had the #1 rated system in baseball while being a winning team.

 

It flips back and forth.

The Red Sox have been willing to take advantage of the inefficiencies of the drafting system, namely, paying over slot money to reduce their disadvantage in drafting order. The White Sox, because of JR's relationship to Bud Selig, have really not.

 

What this has resulted in is the Red Sox' ability to build strong farm systems while producing massive amounts of revenue via their MLB success. It's a brilliant process which continues to make them one of the best-run organizations in baseball, while we have to try and maintain an edge through payroll and good decision-making.

 

It's pretty obvious which method produces the more consistent results.

[Balta1701]

The Red Sox have been willing to take advantage of the inefficiencies of the drafting system, namely, paying over slot money to reduce their disadvantage in drafting order. The White Sox, because of JR's relationship to Bud Selig, have really not.

 

What this has resulted in is the Red Sox' ability to build strong farm systems while producing massive amounts of revenue via their MLB success. It's a brilliant process which continues to make them one of the best-run organizations in baseball, while we have to try and maintain an edge through payroll and good decision-making.

 

It's pretty obvious which method produces the more consistent results.

I still disagree on this one. Plenty of other teams do exactly the same sort of overslot game, and then they wind up with a series of busts. The Red Sox just got a couple of lucky hits while doing so. And if we come back in 5 years, it's entirely plausible that the Red Sox's system will be down, just like the Yankees was a few years ago, just like the Sox's is now, etc.

[iamshack]

If I compare KC to others, KC I can't put into the boat with Boston, because even if everything was done right, they'd never be a regular competitor; they need to do like the Rays. Have a bunch of guys who all come up and hit at the same time, along with a veteran or two who is still under their control, and maybe a successful reclamation project or two, then try to make a serious 1-2 year run, then be ready to dismantle before guys hit FA.

The fact that Kansas City cannot compare to Boston does not mean they must take up residence in the bottom 5 organizations in the league every year. All they need look to is down the road to St Louis for inspiration. Or to fellow division opponent Minnesota.

Edited December 18, 2010 by iamshack

[Balta1701]

The fact that Kansas City cannot compare to Boston does not mean they must take up residence in the bottom 5 organizations in the league every year. All they need look to is down the road to St Loyis for inspiration. Or to fellow division opponent Minnesota.

St. Louis has been on top for a decade because they had perhaps the greatest 15th round draft selection in the history of MLB. Take away that one single pick, and St. Louis could well have been a moribund franchise. Their system is regularly talked about as near the bottom of the league, but they occasionally pull a good player out of it, just like the Royals.

[iamshack]

I still disagree on this one. Plenty of other teams do exactly the same sort of overslot game, and then they wind up with a series of busts. The Red Sox just got a couple of lucky hits while doing so. And if we come back in 5 years, it's entirely plausible that the Red Sox's system will be down, just like the Yankees was a few years ago, just like the Sox's is now, etc.

Well, to illustrate your point, just look at Detroit. They pay over-slot and have struggled to build a consistently strong system. But my point is that it gives you the best chance for success.

[iamshack]

St. Louis has been on top for a decade because they had perhaps the greatest 15th round draft selection in the history of MLB. Take away that one single pick, and St. Louis could well have been a moribund franchise. Their system is regularly talked about as near the bottom of the league, but they occasionally pull a good player out of it, just like the Royals.

You're going to argue that the Cardinals are the Royals had they not drafted Albert Pujols?

[Balta1701]

Well, to illustrate your point, just look at Detroit. They pay over-slot and have struggled to build a consistently strong system. But my point is that it gives you the best chance for success.

And my point is...it's like a 21% chance of success on each pick versus a 20% chance of success if you don't go overslot. It's all a numbers game to me.

[iamshack]

And my point is...it's like a 21% chance of success on each pick versus a 20% chance of success if you don't go overslot. It's all a numbers game to me.

I really disagree with those numbers.

 

It's getting the # 4 overall talent with the 29th overall pick. It's getting a first round talent with your fourth round pick.

 

I think it's a huge competitive advantage.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Whoa! I see this thread turned into Balta vs Shack. Anyway, I've never said I wanted a team full of home grown players. But a couple every now and then sure would help. That's it.

[caulfield12]

Comparing St. Louis to KC is like comparing the Cubs/Sox or Giants/A's.

 

St. Louis is a MUCH bigger overall market, significantly bigger population base, much more loyal (the Royals and White Sox both suffered dramatic fanbase drops after the strike compared to other markets), they also had the McGwire years to hold them over...just look at the playoff appearances for the last 20 years.

 

The Twins have done a great job but come up to their limits in the playoffs, and obviously PART of that is about payroll. When you start spending $140 million and up, you have the cushion of having 2-3 more star players on your roster, and also the cushion to go out and get talent every year at mid-season, to correct your mistakes. By and large, even at $90-110 million, a lot of those teams have to have almost everything go right in terms of performance and health. Obviously, that happened in 2005 with a $65 million dollar roster.

 

So you have the Twins, the A's to a lesser extent, the Rays recently and we can throw the Marlins out there because they were able to use their minor league systems and/or cash and KW-like player procurement (in 1997) to win. Of course, both those models were quickly dismantled when they became prohibitively expensive, as we're seeing right now with the Rays.

 

I would really love to see what Epstein/James would do with a team like the Brewers or Reds or Mariners (who ten years ago would have been placed on the list of model organizations, although their payroll spending was like a major market team). Weren't the Brewers #1 in terms of their minor league system not so long ago, too? Then there's the health and "luck" issue, if you go back to our 1999-2000 prospects, a majority of them were pitchers who were injured or would be injured shortly, although some simply didn't perform. Borchard/Crede/Rowand were the only real position player prospects around that time.

[iamshack]

Whoa! I see this thread turned into Balta vs Shack. Anyway, I've never said I wanted a team full of home grown players. But a couple every now and then sure would help. That's it.

I think we all can agree with that!

[Balta1701]

Whoa! I see this thread turned into Balta vs Shack. Anyway, I've never said I wanted a team full of home grown players. But a couple every now and then sure would help. That's it.

Brent Morel

Gordon Beckham

Sergio Santos

Chris Sale

Gregory Infante

[caulfield12]

The funny thing though is that it's difficult to really argue we developed Sale or Beckham...their maturation has occured more at the major league level.

 

Santos was a lot like the Jenks situation...where we identified talent, but it's hard to say we "incubated" it from start to finish.

 

With the regressions of Flowers, Jordan Danks, Retherford, injuries to the likes of Mitchell, Phegley and Omogrosso, the record is spotty, at best.

 

However, if you start adding names like Viciedo (and Ramirez), Hudson, Chris Young, Brandon Allen, Chris Carter, etc., it's not quite so terrible at all. I remember reading back about five years that the White Sox were actually something like 10-12th in terms of developing players who actually ended up playing in the major leagues, it's just that very few of them have been high impact players or superstars. Unfortunately, they're usually players like Chris Getz or Josh Fields or Brian Anderson or various other first round flameouts like Royce Ring who have little to no impact.

 

But, as someone pointed out, Mitchell/Danks not ready=Pierre, Flowers not ready, forced to re-sign AJ, no adequate bullpen pitchers have been developed, we're forced to sign the likes of Dotel, Linebrink and Crain.

 

The glaring area that's hurt us a bit, though, was giving Teahen that money...Morel really came on last year and opened some eyes. I think, of all the moves (Swisher and Javy) that have been dissected over the last 2-3 years, the Teahen move is the one that must really keep Williams up at night.

 

 

 

But I'm not going to recommend any of those names until we're sure they're in line for consistent save opportunities. Instead, the player I'll push is Sergio Santos(notes), a reliever who (like Thornton) can help you regardless of his real-life responsibilities. In Chicago, Santos isn't really considered a "dark horse" closer candidate, as he's often described in the fantasy community. He appears to simply be the future closer … but we don't know if that era begins tomorrow, or in 2011.

 

Like a few other successful closers (Rafael Soriano(notes) and Carlos Marmol(notes), for example), Santos is a converted position player with a mid to high-90s fastball. He gets serious movement on his pitches, he's struck out 16 hitters in 12.1 innings, and he's held opposing batters to one of the lowest contact-percentages in baseball. (Link to sortable leader board. The only names ahead of Santos on the list are Marmol, Jose Contreras(notes) and Carlos Villanueva(notes)). His stuff is of the highest quality; his current ratios are ridiculous (0.73 ERA, 0.81 WHIP). Santos may not inherit the ninth inning this week, but the 26-year-old right-hander fits the profile and he can assist a fantasy rotation whether he's saving games or not. The Sox haven't used him in many high-leverage situations, which means he'd have to leapfrog several vets in the bullpen hierarchy to get the closing gig. yahoo.com/sports (roto)

Edited December 19, 2010 by caulfield12

[Heads22]

Brent Morel

Gordon Beckham

Sergio Santos

Chris Sale

Gregory Infante

 

That seems to show the less time in the system, the better.

[bigruss]

I really don't believe it's just a numbers game, it's the philosophy of how the team drafts that makes the biggest impact. Of course every team will encounter flameouts, but when you draft high risk, high reward (which is what Boston and other top drafters do) than that is expected. The Sox don't do this (they are starting to more but still take many "safe" picks that turn out to be jsut as risky), and they do get a few good prospects coming up and making contributions but they haven't produced a superstar in years. They have some guys who could be continual All-stars (Beckham, Sale) but really the impact of these guys haven't been enough. It's not just getting players to the majors, but what they do at the majors or what you can acquire for them.

 

Look at the Phillies, their best bats were through their system, and you're talking about perennial MVP candidates. It is so hard to trade for those caliber players or get them on decent FA contracts so developing them from within is basically a necessity when running a franchise.

[TomPickle]

Reported deal of Greinke and Betancourt to the Brewers for Escobar, Cain, and Jeffress.

 

 

Seems like sort of a b.s. made up deal to me though.

 

[chw42]

lol, if I'm the Brewers, I would ask Moore to take Betancourt back.

[caulfield12]

I really don't believe it's just a numbers game, it's the philosophy of how the team drafts that makes the biggest impact. Of course every team will encounter flameouts, but when you draft high risk, high reward (which is what Boston and other top drafters do) than that is expected. The Sox don't do this (they are starting to more but still take many "safe" picks that turn out to be jsut as risky), and they do get a few good prospects coming up and making contributions but they haven't produced a superstar in years. They have some guys who could be continual All-stars (Beckham, Sale) but really the impact of these guys haven't been enough. It's not just getting players to the majors, but what they do at the majors or what you can acquire for them.

 

Look at the Phillies, their best bats were through their system, and you're talking about perennial MVP candidates. It is so hard to trade for those caliber players or get them on decent FA contracts so developing them from within is basically a necessity when running a franchise.

 

 

At his best, Beckham could be Chase Utley-Lite or Dustin Pedroia. Not an MVP, but definitely a high impact player.

 

Trayce Thompson is one of those rare athletes that could flame out like 90% of them, but he could also be our next superstar, you never know...the more darts you throw at the wall (with $100,000+ price tags), the higher your chances some of them will work out.

 

Ramirez and Viciedo, Takatsu and Iguchi proved we can tap other markets....but we've been handicapped in the DR and amazingly, Venezuela, which makes absolutely no sense to me. We'll see how long it takes before Jerry Krause's efforts bear some fruit.

 

It's definitely too early to determine Sale's potential until we see him in the starting rotation (where his raw stuff only is behind A. Chapman in the majors for lefties). If Santos becomes our next closer, there's a good chance that will provide the impetus to send him back to the rotation.

 

I also think Dayan can still become a huge impact player, the name that comes to mind the more I think about it is Bobby Bonilla.

 

 

 

 

[bigruss]

At his best, Beckham could be Chase Utley-Lite or Dustin Pedroia. Not an MVP, but definitely a high impact player.

 

Trayce Thompson is one of those rare athletes that could flame out like 90% of them, but he could also be our next superstar, you never know...the more darts you throw at the wall (with $100,000+ price tags), the higher your chances some of them will work out.

 

Ramirez and Viciedo, Takatsu and Iguchi proved we can tap other markets....but we've been handicapped in the DR and amazingly, Venezuela, which makes absolutely no sense to me. We'll see how long it takes before Jerry Krause's efforts bear some fruit.

 

It's definitely too early to determine Sale's potential until we see him in the starting rotation (where his raw stuff only is behind A. Chapman in the majors for lefties). If Santos becomes our next closer, there's a good chance that will provide the impetus to send him back to the rotation.

 

I also think Dayan can still become a huge impact player, the name that comes to mind the more I think about it is Bobby Bonilla.

One could argue on raw stuff, Kershaw is right up there for top young lefties with awesome stuff.

 

And the whole "numbers" game I guess is intertwined with my argument that the Sox don't go for high reward guys enough, if they only draft half hihg reward than they are missing out on those other guys, meaning they have less of a chance to get a big hit.

[gatnom]

Brent Morel

Gordon Beckham

Sergio Santos

Chris Sale

Gregory Infante

 

Morel and Infante have done nothing at the major league level, so to include them in this list is kind of cheating. Sale has spent half a season on the major league roster, and by keeping him in the bullpen we are doing him a disservice in the long run due to how few innings he is used to pitching. If all he amounts to is a bullpen arm, he's pretty much of a failure of development anyways. You don't draft relief prospects in the first round. I'll give you Beckham and Santos, though I'm not as high on Sergio as everybody else.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Reported deal of Greinke and Betancourt to the Brewers for Escobar, Cain, and Jeffress.

 

 

Seems like sort of a b.s. made up deal to me though.

 

I saw that. Skeptical due to no one else picking up on this rumor. I'll wait until Heyman or Olney say something....

[Jordan4life_2007]

I saw that. Skeptical due to no one else picking up on this rumor. I'll wait until Heyman or Olney say something....

 

Yeah, I'll wait to see something else. I'd be shocked if they dealt Escobar. He's basically their Elvis Andrus.

Edited December 19, 2010 by Jordan4life