Census results are in

[NorthSideSox72]

Not a lot of details yet on which states gain and lose exactly how many seats, but here is the ticker article from CNN.

 

Discuss and add updates.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Some overview points:

 

–A shift of 12 seats affecting 18 different states, including Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas, Utah and Washington.

 

–Those losing seats include, Iowa, Louisiana, Missouri, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvana.

 

So the states losing seats include 4 swings (Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania), 2 typically red (Louisiana, Missouri) and 2 typically blue (New Jersey, New York).

 

A bulletin from Crain's also says that IL is going to lose a seat.

 

[bmags]

okay but where is the list of the people going to death camps.

[Texsox]

Texas gaining seats can only help the Union.

[Rex Kickass]

okay but where is the list of the people going to death camps.

Those are FEMA camps, not death camps.

[StrangeSox]

some of the crazy census rhetoric would be pretty funny right now.

 

silver's early estimates and commentary:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2...-redistricting/

[HuskyCaucasian]

The New Representative Apportionment Table

[NorthSideSox72]

The New Representative Apportionment Table

So...

 

Gained 4 seats: TX (red)

Gained 2 seats: FL (swing)

Gained 1 seat: AZ (red), GA (red), NV (blue/swing), SC (red), UT (red), WA (blue/swing)

 

Lost 1 seat: IL (blue), IA (swing), LA (red), MA (blue), MI (red/swing), MO (red/swing), NJ (blue), PA (swing)

Lost 2 seats: NY (blue), OH (swing)

 

I count the broken down change generally as:

 

Red states: +7

Red/swing states: -2

Swing states: -2

Blue/swing states: +2

Blue states: -5

 

In other words, probably a 7-ish seat swing to the GOP.

 

However, I think some of the deep red states like TX and AZ, are trending towards a more swing designation.

 

[Heads22]

If only this could somehow end in Steve King no longer representing Iowa....

[Y2HH]

If only this could somehow end in Steve King no longer representing Iowa....

 

Or Alan Grayson in Flo...oh, wait.

[Texsox]

News reports are predicting those seats will probably create two new GOP districts in the suburbs of Houston and Dallas and at least one Hispanic (Dem) district down here.

[kapkomet]

News reports are predicting those seats will probably create two new GOP districts in the suburbs of Houston and Dallas and at least one Hispanic (Dem) district down here.

 

 

Actually they were talking about splitting Pete Stark's district into a hispanic district in western Dallas County, which would go Democrat.

 

I'm also almost positive they're going to break up the district I live in too - because it goes from Gainesville down to the loop around Ft. Worth. It covers a lot of real estate, not that is unusual in Texas but the population shift in my district has gone clear crazy in 10 years.

[Balta1701]

Actually they were talking about splitting Pete Stark's district into a hispanic district in western Dallas County, which would go Democrat.

 

I'm also almost positive they're going to break up the district I live in too - because it goes from Gainesville down to the loop around Ft. Worth. It covers a lot of real estate, not that is unusual in Texas but the population shift in my district has gone clear crazy in 10 years.

One thing that having a big Republican win at the state level this year does is ensure that the Republicans are the ones drawing redistricting lines. Not that the Dems would do anything different if they had the power to do so, just sayin', districts will be drawn to provide the most benefit to Republican incumbents as possible.

[kapkomet]

One thing that having a big Republican win at the state level this year does is ensure that the Republicans are the ones drawing redistricting lines. Not that the Dems would do anything different if they had the power to do so, just sayin', districts will be drawn to provide the most benefit to Republican incumbents as possible.

 

 

And here, they actually can conduct business without one single Democrat present. Remember that whole debacle in 2004 when the Democrats left the state, and they couldn't conduct business? That was so that they couldn't have a quorum... but under the Texas constitution you only have to have 100 of 150 members present... and the Republicans hold 100 seats exactly.

 

With that said, they know that they're going to have to give hispanics a chunk of their own districts to even have a prayer 10-15-20 years down the road since they will be the majority race in this state in 3 years from now.

[Balta1701]

With that said, they know that they're going to have to give hispanics a chunk of their own districts to even have a prayer 10-15-20 years down the road since they will be the majority race in this state in 3 years from now.

After watching what happened in Arizona, after having similar bills introduced in multiple states (I vaguely recall Texas being on that list), after all the Spanish-speaking TV stations cut into their programming to watch the Republicans vote en masse against the DREAM act...you really think the long-term hispanic vote is going to seriously influence policy this year?

[Texsox]

Actually they were talking about splitting Pete Stark's district into a hispanic district in western Dallas County, which would go Democrat.

 

I'm also almost positive they're going to break up the district I live in too - because it goes from Gainesville down to the loop around Ft. Worth. It covers a lot of real estate, not that is unusual in Texas but the population shift in my district has gone clear crazy in 10 years.

 

I knew there was a second "Dem" district they were discussing. It seems almost certain the Rio Grande Valley or border area between Laredo and Eagle Pass will see a new District since that is where the population is growing the fastest. I guess the GOP in Texas won;t turn down the extra seats that immigration brings

[kapkomet]

After watching what happened in Arizona, after having similar bills introduced in multiple states (I vaguely recall Texas being on that list), after all the Spanish-speaking TV stations cut into their programming to watch the Republicans vote en masse against the DREAM act...you really think the long-term hispanic vote is going to seriously influence policy this year?

 

 

Yes, because a lot of hispanics are not illegals... but the "free citizenship" path is certainly appealable to a lot of "new" voters, isn't it?

[NorthSideSox72]

IL still has a solid majority in both houses and hold the governor's chair, so the loss of seat there will almost surely hit the GOP, not the Dems.

 

[jasonxctf]

yeah, illinois gop is going to lose either the 8th, 14th or 17th, being merged into others.

[Chet Lemon]

A lot of speculation that it will be Schock's district (Peoria, Jacksonville). The northwestern part will get merged with Schilling's, the southern and part of the west will go to Shimkus, and the eastern part will get merged with Johnson's.

[Texsox]

does that happen to have any bearing on where the state is losing population?

[NorthSideSox72]

does that happen to have any bearing on where the state is losing population?

Should it? Yes. Does it? Sort of - there are federal laws as to how redistricting can be handled. But the bulk of the decisions, within those federal parameters, fall to the states and their laws (in Illinois, its the legislature's call).