Minor League talent rankings

[gatnom]

Brent Morel is pretty much worthless to them. They have that "Ryan Zimmerman" guy at 3b. And trading for a prospect who is already blocked is silly because everyone knows you can't keep both.

 

Bah, beat me to it.

[iamshack]

Well, they do have that Zimmerman guy...

 

As far as the draft, the players they pick up are just as likely to succeed or fail as Morel and Hudson are, and they would most likely have higher ceilings. They would obviously have to pay and develop them a little more, but it all kind of depends on how soon they plan on competing. You also have to take into account that trading Dunn for Hudson and Morel is kind of a fail.

Why is that a fail?

 

And I disagree with you in terms of the draft picks being as likely to succeed as Hudson and Morel. Players that are MLB ready have already beaten big odds in terms of draft picks. Obviously the biggest step is producing in the Major Leagues, but success at AA and AAA for draft picks, even high draft picks, is by no means guaranteed.

[gatnom]

Why is that a fail?

 

And I disagree with you in terms of the draft picks being as likely to succeed as Hudson and Morel. Players that are MLB ready have already beaten big odds in terms of draft picks. Obviously the biggest step is producing in the Major Leagues, but success at AA and AAA for draft picks, even high draft picks, is by no means guaranteed.

 

A middle of the rotation starter and a league average third baseman isn't a whole lot of trade value. I think it's also worth noting that Hudson had taken a slight step back from his previous season while in AAA.

 

And, I'll concede the point about being more proven than any old draft pick. I personally think that until you show something in the majors you haven't really shown anything, though.

[iamshack]

A middle of the rotation starter and a league average third baseman isn't a whole lot of trade value. I think it's also worth noting that Hudson had taken a slight step back from his previous season while in AAA.

 

And, I'll concede the point about being more proven than any old draft pick. I personally think that until you show something in the majors you haven't really shown anything, though.

For 70 games of Adam Dunn? I disagree.

A middle of the rotation starter with almost no service time is incredibly valuable, especially to a young team like Washington. And I'm not going to concede that Hudson's ceiling is "middle of the rotation," although my guess is that will probably be what he amounts to ultimately. But he's already pitched at a higher level than that in his short time, and yes, I know it was a short time, with Arizona. But it's just hard for me to limit the guy's potential to middle of the rotation when he's already shown glimpses of being better than that in his very short time in the majors.

[Balta1701]

. But he's already pitched at a higher level than that in his short time, and yes, I know it was a short time, with Arizona. But it's just hard for me to limit the guy's potential to middle of the rotation when he's already shown glimpses of being better than that in his very short time in the majors.

And after our legendary debate over the Jackson deal? Sir, you disappoint me.

[gatnom]

For 70 games of Adam Dunn? I disagree.

A middle of the rotation starter with almost no service time is incredibly valuable, especially to a young team like Washington. And I'm not going to concede that Hudson's ceiling is "middle of the rotation," although my guess is that will probably be what he amounts to ultimately. But he's already pitched at a higher level than that in his short time, and yes, I know it was a short time, with Arizona. But it's just hard for me to limit the guy's potential to middle of the rotation when he's already shown glimpses of being better than that in his very short time in the majors.

 

I just said "middle of the rotation" because that seems to be more of the consensus around the league in terms of scouts, rankings, and the like. I don't doubt he could be a #2 type pitcher (which really is roughly middle of the rotation anyways). A cost controlled starter is incredibly valuable, but not so much in the trade market. Hell, all he got us in a trade was a struggling starting pitcher with an ERA over 5 who was due $8 million the next season.

[iamshack]

And after our legendary debate over the Jackson deal? Sir, you disappoint me.

Why?

 

I still stand behind the trade for Edwin. And notice I said Hudson will probably ultimately be a middle of the rotation starter.

 

These two debates are not really related, Balta.

[iamshack]

I just said "middle of the rotation" because that seems to be more of the consensus around the league in terms of scouts, rankings, and the like. I don't doubt he could be a #2 type pitcher (which really is roughly middle of the rotation anyways). A cost controlled starter is incredibly valuable, but not so much in the trade market. Hell, all he got us in a trade was a struggling starting pitcher with an ERA over 5 who was due $8 million the next season.

Are you honestly going to argue that a #2 starter in this league with almost no service time is not worth much on the trade market? I couldn't disagree more.

 

Secondly, let's not sell Edwin short here. He's not just a struggling starter with an ERA over 5. That doesn't really tell the whole story there, and you know it.

[gatnom]

Are you honestly going to argue that a #2 starter in this league with almost no service time is not worth much on the trade market? I couldn't disagree more.

 

Secondly, let's not sell Edwin short here. He's not just a struggling starter with an ERA over 5. That doesn't really tell the whole story there, and you know it.

 

I'm not saying he can't be the ace he was with us. At the time of acquisition, he was not good. It's plain fact. If all we could get for Dan Hudson was pre-deadline Edwin Jackson, then clearly he is not worth a whole lot in the market.

[iamshack]

I'm not saying he can't be the ace he was with us. At the time of acquisition, he was not good. It's plain fact. If all we could get for Dan Hudson was pre-deadline Edwin Jackson, then clearly he is not worth a whole lot in the market.

Well, I think we probably could have gotten more if we really cared about maximizing the value of Dan Hudson. But KW doesn't care about that stuff. He targets a player we like, he makes the deal if he feels the offer is reasonable.

 

Personally, and this is evident in the debate Balta referenced, I feel like Edwin is a hell of an arm to bring back for Hudson. But I don't really care to have that debate again.

 

If what you're arguing is that a middle of the rotation starter isn't going to bring you back much in the trade market, than this entire discussion is fairly moot, because it's not worth trading these kids if you're not getting good value back, especially for a rental player.

[sircaffey]

The lack of pitching depth in the Sox system is going to severely hamper their ability to trade for anyone of any impact.

[iamshack]

The lack of pitching depth in the Sox system is going to severely hamper their ability to trade for anyone of any impact.

Odds are the payroll being maxed-out will serve the same function.

[gatnom]

Well, I think we probably could have gotten more if we really cared about maximizing the value of Dan Hudson. But KW doesn't care about that stuff. He targets a player we like, he makes the deal if he feels the offer is reasonable.

 

Personally, and this is evident in the debate Balta referenced, I feel like Edwin is a hell of an arm to bring back for Hudson. But I don't really care to have that debate again.

 

If what you're arguing is that a middle of the rotation starter isn't going to bring you back much in the trade market, than this entire discussion is fairly moot, because it's not worth trading these kids if you're not getting good value back, especially for a rental player.

 

Sure he has a hell of an arm. He had one hell of an ERA too. There's a pretty big disconnect in your argument here shack. Either Dan Hudson is worth a lot, and KW overpaid considerably (Holmberg is a decent prospect, as well), or Dan Hudson isn't worth even a struggling back of the rotation starter.

[iamshack]

Sure he has a hell of an arm. He had one hell of an ERA too. There's a pretty big disconnect in your argument here shack. Either Dan Hudson is worth a lot, and KW overpaid considerably (Holmberg is a decent prospect, as well), or Dan Hudson isn't worth even a struggling back of the rotation starter.

That's bs Gatnom, and you know it. It's not like they went out and acquired Rodrigo Lopez or something. Do you expect Jackson to post an ERA of 5 this season? He proved he was capable of much more than that in his stint with us and I expect him to be even better this coming season. He's a guy that has struggled but has the potential to be a very solid #2, as he was in Detroit in 2009. You also have to consider the situation we were in. We were trying to reach the postseason and could not risk Hudson having growing pains, and so our hand was forced a bit.

 

Regardless, I really don't want to have this debate again. If you believe a kid like Hudson doesn't have the ability to get you a good acquisition at the deadline, then we simply have a difference of opinion.

 

 

[gatnom]

That's bs Gatnom, and you know it. It's not like they went out and acquired Rodrigo Lopez or something. Do you expect Jackson to post an ERA of 5 this season? He proved he was capable of much more than that in his stint with us and I expect him to be even better this coming season. He's a guy that has struggled but has the potential to be a very solid #2, as he was in Detroit in 2009. You also have to consider the situation we were in. We were trying to reach the postseason and could not risk Hudson having growing pains, and so our hand was forced a bit.

 

Regardless, I really don't want to have this debate again. If you believe a kid like Hudson doesn't have the ability to get you a good acquisition at the deadline, then we simply have a difference of opinion.

 

I don't expect him to put up an ERA over 5, and I don't expect him to be as good as he was down the stretch for us. I have absolutely no idea what Edwin Jackson will pitch for us next year. He could be anywhere between our best starter and our worst starter, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see it happen. At the time we acquired him, he was a pitcher who had been pitching with greater than a 5 ERA with one year left on his contract for way more than he was worth at the time. He also has little history of success with a career ERA of 4.62.

 

I think Hudson could get you pieces, even pieces like Adam Dunn, you would need to surround him with more than just Brent Morel.

[caulfield12]

I agree to a degree, but what else was he supposed to ask for beyond Viciedo? Perhaps I don't remember the rumors properly, but I think the final rumor was Jackson + Viciedo for Dunn? I know I wouldn't agree to any deal centered around Tyler Flowers.

 

I think my overall point with our farm system is that it should be a lot better than what it is based upon our payroll. You could get a LOT of impact talent for the money you blow on players like Mark Teahen and Scott Linebrink.

 

 

This is true, but I'll take any other team in the majors and comb through their payroll for the last 5-7 years and find MANY more players with horrible contracts than KW has been saddled with...just look at the Cubs.

 

Basically, we have/had Teahen, Pierre (arguable), Linebrink (he still was a major part of 2008 team, so you can't say that money was a complete bust like A. Jones in LA with the Dodgers), MacDougal and then Contreras and Konerko at different points over the last half-decade.

 

Now, you might argue Peavy as well, although we really don't know 100% of the behind-the-scenes insurance implications with that contract.

 

You can take the Royals, Cubs, Indians, Tigers (just these last two seasons) and we'll find some atrocious deals that eclipse what KW has done.

 

 

Livan Hernandez, Adam Everett, Mike Lamb, Brett Boone, Jeff Cirillo, Tony Batista, Phil Nevin, Ruben Sierra, RonDL White, Craig Monroe...just to name a few of the Twins' bonehead moves. They've had more than their share of stinkers. No GM is perfect. You can make the argument that if the Twins would have gone "all in" one of those seasons (2002-2004/2006/2009/2010) and taken all the money going to veteran "stopgaps" and invested that money in a superstar player to put them over the top or traded some of their quality minor league depth (like they finally did for Capps at mid-season), they'd have a lot more to show for themselves in the post-season.

 

 

 

 

[iamshack]

I don't expect him to put up an ERA over 5, and I don't expect him to be as good as he was down the stretch for us. I have absolutely no idea what Edwin Jackson will pitch for us next year. He could be anywhere between our best starter and our worst starter, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see it happen. At the time we acquired him, he was a pitcher who had been pitching with greater than a 5 ERA with one year left on his contract for way more than he was worth at the time. He also has little history of success with a career ERA of 4.62.

 

I think Hudson could get you pieces, even pieces like Adam Dunn, you would need to surround him with more than just Brent Morel.

First of all, if you think a guy like Jackson is viewed in the same light as others that put up a 5 ERA, then I think you're mistaken.

 

Secondly, I think you're ignoring the fact that you were only getting Dunn for 70 games or so. It's not like you were getting him for 1.5 seasons or more.

[gatnom]

First of all, if you think a guy like Jackson is viewed in the same light as others that put up a 5 ERA, then I think you're mistaken.

 

Secondly, I think you're ignoring the fact that you were only getting Dunn for 70 games or so. It's not like you were getting him for 1.5 seasons or more.

 

I guess this is where we agree to disagree. He had only pitched one good half season prior to Coop "fixing" him.

[iamshack]

I guess this is where we agree to disagree. He had only pitched one good half season prior to Coop "fixing" him.

Whether the talent manifests itself is another thing altogether. The potential will always lure in a few GM's to give up players that exceed a return of a pitcher with his statistical body of work. It's why you see AJ Burnett and Javy Vazquez continue to get big contracts and move from team to team.

[Dick Allen]

From what I have been told, they absolutely love Morel. I think they're going to give him every opportunity to lock down the job unless some obvious and clear upgrade becomes available.

It could be the next big KW/Ozzie showdown. KW loves Viciedo. Ozzie loves Morel. If Viciedo shows he can play a solid 3B, there's a reason Cora is working daily with him this offseason, there's going to be more conflict.

[Balta1701]

It could be the next big KW/Ozzie showdown. KW loves Viciedo. Ozzie loves Morel. If Viciedo shows he can play a solid 3B, there's a reason Cora is working daily with him this offseason, there's going to be more conflict.

What makes you think that KW doesn't also love Morel? There's plenty of reason to think that he does.

[Jordan4life_2007]

What makes you think that KW doesn't also love Morel? There's plenty of reason to think that he does.

 

Dayan wasn't signed to a 4-year, 10 million dollar contract without ever taking a swing in America to rot in the minors. Not saying KW doesn't like Morel. But if Viciedo can just be competent at 3B the job is his. Because 1B/DH is obviously locked up for quite a while. And the OF is full.

Edited December 26, 2010 by Jordan4life

[Balta1701]

Dayan wasn't signed to a 4-year, 10 million dollar contract without ever taking a swing in America to rot in the minors. Not saying KW doesn't like Morel. But if Viciedo can just be competent at 3B the job is his. Because 1B/DH is obviously locked up for quite a while. And the OF is full.

If Kenny Williams loved Viciedo that much, he wouldn't have signed a 1b and a DH to 3 year deals this offseason, he'd have Viciedo DHing. Or at worst, signed a guy like Lee or Pena to a 1 year deal.

[sircaffey]

If Kenny Williams loved Viciedo that much, he wouldn't have signed a 1b and a DH to 3 year deals this offseason, he'd have Viciedo DHing. Or at worst, signed a guy like Lee or Pena to a 1 year deal.

Or he believes he can play 3B.

[Balta1701]

Or he believes he can play 3B.

Which is why the org tried moving Viciedo to 1b to start last season, traded for Mark Teahen, and spent $15 million extending Teahen.

 

Morel has been a nice surprise, and Viciedo was moved back there last year because of Teahen's implosion, but really, they went out and traded for Teahen because they didn't want Viciedo at 3b and they thought Teahen would be a defensive upgrade there. Viciedo's going to need years in the minors to become an adequate 3b, and his bat doesn't belong there.