Is 2011 make or break for Ozzie?

[Jordan4life_2007]

Doesn't Tommy John surgery take two years to recover from? Plus, Nathan is in his mid-30's.

 

I think the days of Joe Nathan striking fear into the AL are long over.

 

Plus, Capps wasn't that solid last year for them, so its not like they have a good BP right now.

 

While the Twins core of Mauer-Morneau-Young-Liriano-Duensing is still intact, it's a big question mark after those 6.

 

The rotation is suspect after Liriano-Duensing, the lineup still has Mauer-Morenau-Young, but Cuddyer-Kubel-Span all had down years last year from 2009 and who knows about Valencia-Nishioka-Casilla.

 

It sure will be interesting to watch.

 

The Twins have lost Morneau for a possible total of 111 games the last two years, the second best closer in baseball the last 5 years all of last year and saw Liriano sport a 5.80 ERA in 2009 and still won the division both years. It's like how many times are you got to dangle raw meat in front of a hungry pitbull before you get your f***ing hand bitten off?

Edited January 4, 2011 by Jordan4life

[NorthSideSox72]

I truly wish Phil Rogers would just go away, the man is a f***ing braindead clown.

 

He's actually a decent writer, that's not the problem. The problem is that he's baseball-stupid. There is a difference.

 

Doesn't Tommy John surgery take two years to recover from? Plus, Nathan is in his mid-30's.

I don't know of any real study on this, but in my memory, it seems like pitchers having TJ or other majorly invasive arm surgeries typically miss a year of play (or close to it), then pitch a year badly while adjusting, then get back to form (if they reach the last part at all).

 

[Balta1701]

If someone could tell me that Nathan was 100%, I'd take there pen over ours to be honest (or at least consider it). I really am scared about our pen and the back end of our rotation. But I like the potential of our club and I like what Kenny has done. That said, we have holes that could end up being critical (no 5th starter if Sale is in the pen and I have a hard time expecting anything out of Peavy as of this point). I hope he puts everything together but given the injury and the fact that he hasn't pitched in a long time for a full season, it is hard to expect him to regain his ace form and foolish for the Sox to count on it. Luckily Buehrle/Floyd/Danks/Jackson is still a solid 1 through 4 (in no particular order). It has the potential to be well above average too.

 

Our pen could end up working out brilliantly too, but we lost Jenks/Putz/Liney (not that Liney matters) and added Crain. I guess someone could make a case that we added Sale to the pen too. Thorty is rock solid and the big X-Factor is health (like it is for every team) and Santos (if he can grow upon last year, than I'm a lot more confident) but Crain is our only righty which we can really count on as of now in that 7th/8th inning. Pena hasn't proven much in that role since joining the Sox, although he could very well kick total ass cause he has the stuff.

Actually, I'm really not that worried about the back end of our pen...there's 3-4 guys I think could handle the job, and it's just going to be a question of which one gets it. Sale, Thornton, Santos, Crain, I could live with any of them in the Closer's role.

 

The thing that worries me is the 5-6-7 guys. I think Infante's likely to come out and rock, that's just what guys who throw hard in the pen tend to do until the league figures out what their fastballs look like.

 

I really have no confidence in Tony Pena right now, and if Anthony Carter takes that 7 spot, which is how its set up right now...that leaves us a bit weak on lefties and I don't feel confident in Carter just yet.

 

I'm hoping we get 1 more bullpen signing to clear things up.

[southsider2k5]

Doesn't Tommy John surgery take two years to recover from? Plus, Nathan is in his mid-30's.

 

I think the days of Joe Nathan striking fear into the AL are long over.

 

Plus, Capps wasn't that solid last year for them, so its not like they have a good BP right now.

 

While the Twins core of Mauer-Morneau-Young-Liriano-Duensing is still intact, it's a big question mark after those 6.

 

The rotation is suspect after Liriano-Duensing, the lineup still has Mauer-Morenau-Young, but Cuddyer-Kubel-Span all had down years last year from 2009 and who knows about Valencia-Nishioka-Casilla.

 

It sure will be interesting to watch.

 

Its usually a year to heal, and then a year of getting back strength and accuracy it seems.

[ptatc]

Its usually a year to heal, and then a year of getting back strength and accuracy it seems.

 

the rehab is usually 8-9 months. But you're right, it takes many pitchers a while to regain the "feel" for pitches with the new tightened elbow. From my experience the more experienced pitchers take less time to regain this. I would guess that Nathan would get it back through spring training depending on how much they let him throw.

[greg775]

This post makes my head hurt.

 

For every negative you post, the exact opposite could happen.

 

And everyone needs to take into account the source of this article.

 

 

I honestly couldn't believe you posted this. (which is actually a pretty good post) It's like someone else did it for you or something...

 

Two points.

I agree the opposite could happen; I'm just trying to say our team is no lock to win squat. Once we take the field are you confident we're going to win any given game just because we added Dunn/Crain? Our team was utterly dysfunctional last year.

 

The second post from Reed ... What are you talking about? I guess you think most of my posts are simplistic pieces of crap. I think I know the Sox as well as anybody on here since I've been a fan forever. Though I don't get to see as many games as I'd like. Yes I go by the eye test more than the sabes people.

Edited January 4, 2011 by greg775

[chisoxfan09]

A lot of good posts on this thread, I personally think Ozzie is on the bubble to at least bring home the division but I don't know that it will be enough for a new contract next year. Just my 2 cents.

[Wanne]

like Balta and many said...you bet your butt he is. Whether that's good or bad remains to be seen...hopefully it doesn't make him go into psycho-mode because of it. Having said that...it seemed to work for Lovie Smith this year but Lovie and Ozzie about as far apart on the spectrum as you could possibly be.

[Balta1701]

A lot of good posts on this thread, I personally think Ozzie is on the bubble to at least bring home the division but I don't know that it will be enough for a new contract next year. Just my 2 cents.

If Ozzie wins the division, I'd be content with something like a 3 year contract extension. Not sure how I'd feel about the WC.

[ptatc]

like Balta and many said...you bet your butt he is. Whether that's good or bad remains to be seen...hopefully it doesn't make him go into psycho-mode because of it. Having said that...it seemed to work for Lovie Smith this year but Lovie and Ozzie about as far apart on the spectrum as you could possibly be.

 

the part that scares me is that you know the Sox will hire a person who has not managed before or who has little MLB mangerial experience. That has always been the MO. I'm not sure who is out there that I would prefer over OZZie. Maybe this is what Joey is waiting for ala Rick Hahn and KW's jub.

[Balta1701]

the part that scares me is that you know the Sox will hire a person who has not managed before or who has little MLB mangerial experience. That has always been the MO. I'm not sure who is out there that I would prefer over OZZie. Maybe this is what Joey is waiting for ala Rick Hahn and KW's jub.

Really? Then why was option #2 in 2004 Cito Gaston?

[southsider2k5]

If Ozzie wins the division, I'd be content with something like a 3 year contract extension. Not sure how I'd feel about the WC.

 

Odds are you will need more wins to get the wild card than you would the division. I would bet the AL East runner up has more wins than the AL Central champion.

[LittleHurt05]

If Ozzie wins the division, I'd be content with something like a 3 year contract extension. Not sure how I'd feel about the WC.

 

That would require more wins than the Yankees or Red Sox, so I'd think I'd be OK with the job he did. It would probably be mean the Tigers or Twins won close to 100 games anyway.

[Real]

Yankees won't win more than 90 games in 2011, IMO. Pitching will be a big problem for them, starting and in the pen

[Ranger]

The players? Or the Twins or Tigers? I just don't think that a manager has that big of an effect in baseball in a positive or negative way. The person that brings in the players and the players are the people who control whether a team wins or not. Ozzie's decision to go with Kotsay instead of THome had a much bigger effect on the team than anything he did in seasons.

 

Yes and no. Players, and the health of those players (keeping in mind that just because a guy stays off the DL it doesn't mean he's "healthy"), is about 90% of it. There really isn't much a manager can do if the players aren't any good, and really, I don't believe he can make them much better than what they are. Either they're going to be or they're not. It's not as if baseball is such a sport (like basketball/football) where you can put a guy in a "system" in which he can succeed. They're going to hit, pitch, and catch it like they're capable, or they're not. Nobody can make them do that better.

 

The truth is that most professional players that fail have internal issues (health, confidence problems, personal issues, etc.). In regard to mental issues, the best that can be done for those players is to tell them you believe in them, continue to give them opportunities, and hope they snap out of it. But that stuff isn't as easy to explain away and it sure isn't as easy to "treat". Meaning, the way of the world is people want answers and they demand restitution and the satisfaction of feeling like something is being done about the problem. From being around it and talking with a lot of these guys off the record, it seems pretty evident that, unless a manager is totally incompetent (i.e. goes to make a pitching change but has nobody warming up), there isn't much a manager can do for them to make them play better over 162 games except to believe in them.

 

As for the Kotsay thing, it really isn't why they lost the division. They started the season slow on offense (April and May weren't good), but a single hitter wouldn't have changed their fortunes, unless it was Pujols. Plus, there's no guarantee Thome would've even hit during those months either. By June, they were a decent offense and got even better in July and August. Where the Sox really failed last year was pitching issues in August. Too many games and leads blown. They gave away far too many games in the late innings last year, which was not the fault of the offense. Couple that with losing the closer and both setup men to injury at various points, and then the team had real problems.

[fathom]

As for the Kotsay thing, it really isn't why they lost the division. They started the season slow on offense (April and May weren't good), but a single hitter wouldn't have changed their fortunes, unless it was Pujols. Plus, there's no guarantee Thome would've even hit during those months either. By June, they were a decent offense and got even better in July and August. Where the Sox really failed last year was pitching issues in August. Too many games and leads blown. They gave away far too many games in the late innings last year, which was not the fault of the offense. Couple that with losing the closer and both setup men to injury at various points, and then the team had real problems.

 

The slow start is what prevented them from running away from the competition and getting a double digit lead when they went 26-5. Kotsay's ineffectiveness during that early part of the season, especially with men on base, had a negative impact on the team.

Edited January 5, 2011 by fathom

[Ranger]

Doesn't Tommy John surgery take two years to recover from? Plus, Nathan is in his mid-30's.

 

I think the days of Joe Nathan striking fear into the AL are long over.

 

Plus, Capps wasn't that solid last year for them, so its not like they have a good BP right now.

 

While the Twins core of Mauer-Morneau-Young-Liriano-Duensing is still intact, it's a big question mark after those 6.

 

The rotation is suspect after Liriano-Duensing, the lineup still has Mauer-Morenau-Young, but Cuddyer-Kubel-Span all had down years last year from 2009 and who knows about Valencia-Nishioka-Casilla.

 

It sure will be interesting to watch.

 

the rehab is usually 8-9 months. But you're right, it takes many pitchers a while to regain the "feel" for pitches with the new tightened elbow. From my experience the more experienced pitchers take less time to regain this. I would guess that Nathan would get it back through spring training depending on how much they let him throw.

 

I think an even greater issue with Nathan is that he's not 26. He's 36, and will be 37 a month or so after the season ends. I would think recovering from a surgery and getting back that "feel" would be tougher in the mid-to-late 30s. But who knows? He might come back incredibly strong.

 

 

Two points.

I agree the opposite could happen; I'm just trying to say our team is no lock to win squat. Once we take the field are you confident we're going to win any given game just because we added Dunn/Crain? Our team was utterly dysfunctional last year.

 

There isn't a lock in the division. And I'm not sure what you mean by "utterly dysfunctional".

[Ranger]

The slow start is what prevented them from running away from the competition and getting a double digit lead when they went 26-5. Kotsay's ineffectiveness during that early part of the season, especially with men on base, had a negative impact on the team.

 

Right, but is it why they lost? Nobody was hitting except for Konerko and Rios. A team can't win games when 2 guys are hitting. A team can't win games when 3 guys are hitting, either.

 

The 2010 White Sox did not lose the division because of Mark Kotsay.

[Ranger]

By the way, Kotsay only played in 34 of the 50 games played in April/May. And he only started in 29 of them. I'm sorry, but subtracting Kotsay and adding Thome wouldn't have prevented the slow start. Unless, again, the addition was somebody like Albert Pujols. In that case, you can probably add a handful of wins right there.

 

Although, if the rest of the offense was as bad as the 8 other regulars were to start last year, Pujols wouldn't see any pitches to hit anyway. The bottom line is that no team can afford to have 7 or 8 regulars batting around .200 or worse to start the season. Even if Mark Kotsay isn't one of them.

Edited January 5, 2011 by Ranger

[Dick Allen]

Right, but is it why they lost? Nobody was hitting except for Konerko and Rios. A team can't win games when 2 guys are hitting. A team can't win games when 3 guys are hitting, either.

 

The 2010 White Sox did not lose the division because of Mark Kotsay.

Their overall DH production was horrid, and was something that even casual baseball fans could see coming from miles away. It was one big reason they didn't win, If you don't think a real DH would have mattered, fine, but then you probably can't think much of the Dunn signing. Apparently KW and JR thought the DH spot was a big problem.

[Ranger]

Their overall DH production was horrid, and was something that even casual baseball fans could see coming from miles away. It was one big reason they didn't win, If you don't think a real DH would have mattered, fine, but then you probably can't think much of the Dunn signing. Apparently KW and JR thought the DH spot was a big problem.

 

I look at the overall offense and what it produced over the season, I don't focus on one spot in the order. The Sox were a Top 7 offense in June, Top 5 in July, and the best offense in baseball in August. They lost games they should have won because of the pitching and the failure to hold leads.

 

Of course having Dunn's ability in the lineup makes them a better offense, but that doesn't mean that Kotsay's presence cost them the playoffs last year. If they have Dunn last season, I still don't believe they make the playoffs, because I don't think he alone makes up the 6 games they would've needed.

 

But, I do want people to keep in mind that Konerko benefited greatly by getting days off from the field and the team benefit by him being in the lineup on those days. The idea of being able to rotate somebody into his spot play is a very good idea. I just hope that he stays as healthy this year as he was last year. Just keep an eye out for that in 2011.

[Dick Allen]

I look at the overall offense and what it produced over the season, I don't focus on one spot in the order. The Sox were a Top 7 offense in June, Top 5 in July, and the best offense in baseball in August. They lost games they should have won because of the pitching and the failure to hold leads.

 

Of course having Dunn's ability in the lineup makes them a better offense, but that doesn't mean that Kotsay's presence cost them the playoffs last year. If they have Dunn last season, I still don't believe they make the playoffs, because I don't think he alone makes up the 6 games they would've needed.

 

But, I do want people to keep in mind that Konerko benefited greatly by getting days off from the field and the team benefit by him being in the lineup on those days. The idea of being able to rotate somebody into his spot play is a very good idea. I just hope that he stays as healthy this year as he was last year. Just keep an eye out for that in 2011.

While its nice to say Konerko benefitted from the extra days off and that was the reason for his big year, its really unlikely. He DH'd 6 more times in 2010 than he did in 2009. Was the reason he hit 11 April homers in 2010 vs. 3 in 2009 because he was anticipating being a DH? The reason for his big year was more likely he was able to keep his injured thumb in check. I doubt the 6 extra games DHing did much for that.The DH experiment was a total failure. $56 million proves even the White Sox think so.

Edited January 6, 2011 by Dick Allen

[Ranger]

While its nice to say Konerko benefitted from the extra days off and that was the reason for his big year, its really unlikely. He DH'd 6 more times in 2010 than he did in 2009. Was the reason he hit 11 April homers in 2010 vs. 3 in 2009 because he was anticipating being a DH? The reason for his big year was more likely he was able to keep his injured thumb in check. I doubt the 6 extra games DHing did much for that.The DH experiment was a total failure. $56 million proves even the White Sox think so.

 

Konerko doesn't agree with you. He thinks it absolutely helped him stay healthy and productive. And if he thinks it helped him, then it helped him.

 

[justBLAZE]

Konerko doesn't agree with you. He thinks it absolutely helped him stay healthy and productive. And if he thinks it helped him, then it helped him.

 

He must be ecstatic about the Dunn signing, not only it brings another 1B, a bag of doughnuts, protection in the lineup, but an ON-BASE plus SLUGGING north of .900.

[Balta1701]

He must be ecstatic about the Dunn signing, not only it brings another 1B, a bag of doughnuts, protection in the lineup, but an ON-BASE plus SLUGGING north of .900.

 

They put doughnuts in bags now?