Rafael Soriano signs with Yankees

[That funky motion]

The Edwin Jackson trade possibility

By Joe Pawlikowski in Hot Stove League. Tags: Edwin Jackson · Comments (37)·

(Paul Beaty/AP)

 

As we weather the final three months before Opening Day, we’ll spend most of our time talking about pitching. Everywhere else the Yankees are decently set, and where they’re not set they have options. With the pitching staff the options aren’t immediately clear. What is clear is that no one is satisfied with Sergio Mitre. I imagine, then, that until the Yankees clear up the back end of the rotation that it will dominate our conversation.

 

In early December MLB Trade Rumors ran a poll asking where Rafael Soriano would land. Of the teams listed, the Angels got the most votes, but that doesn’t appear to be a strong possibility at all. They already signed Scott Downs and generally have a decent bullpen. Their needs lie elsewhere. The next top vote-getter: The Chicago White Sox. They just lost their closer, Bobby Jenks, and while Matt Thornton had a great 2010, he’s probably best used as an elite setup man. We saw that idea gain some merit on Saturday when Jon Heyman reported that “there seems to be some interest” on the part of the Sox.

 

The problem, as Heyman noted, was that the White Sox have little money left in the 2011 budget. After signing Adam Dunn and re-signing Paul Konerko the team has $110.575 million in committed salaries. Baseball Reference pegs their total after arbitration and reserve clause obligations to just under $120 million. The Sox have hit that total only once in team history, in 2007 when they finished 72-90. If they do intend to sign Soriano, it appears as though they’d have to shed at least one contract. Since they do have a number of quality pitchers, the Yankees will likely take a look if they make one available.

 

Last month Mike took a look at Mark Buehrle, who is owed $14 million this season before he becomes a free agent. There also was a clause in his contract that gave him a $1 million raise, plus a guaranteed $15 million in 2012. From the way it looks on the White Sox Cot’s page, that clause expired when Buehrle gained 10 and 5 rights on July 16, 2010. That means he can reject any trade for whatever reason. The White Sox, then, might look to another pricey starter who hits free agency next season if they want to free up some payroll.

 

Yankees fans should be familiar with Edwin Jackson. In 2008 he faced the Yankees six times and allowed one or fewer runs in half of those starts. Thankfully, in the other three he allowed five or more. The next year he moved to Detroit, where he’d face the Yankees less, but in his two starts he pitched 13 innings and allowed just two runs. That was by far his best year, and it was even better until he flopped in September (and helped the downfall of the then-playoff-bound Tigers). When the Tigers traded him last off-season the Yankees were involved. Could his next trade involve the Yankees again?

 

Jackson has certainly experienced his ups and downs throughout his big league career. He made his major league debut in 2003 at age 19, and after the season was named Baseball America’s No. 4 overall prospect. Yet he never found consistent success with the Dodgers. They eventually gave up on him, sending him to Tampa Bay in exchange for Danys Baez in the winter before the 2006 season. It took Jackson a couple of years, but by 2008 he appeared to be a decent pitcher. In 2009 and 2010 he gained notoriety, first for his spectacular first half in 2009, and then for pitching a no-hitter in 2010. He ended the 2010 season in Chicago, where he pitched exceptionally well, striking out more than a batter per inning in his 11 starts.

 

The problem with Jackson is that even though he has pitched in the majors for parts of eight seasons, we still don’t have a decent grasp of what to expect from him. For instance, in 2008 and 2009 he posted identical 39.1 percent ground ball rates. But in 2010 that jumped all the way to 49.4 percent. His strikeout rate has jumped around, too. In 2008 he struck out just 5.30 per nine, but in 2009 that went up by more than a batter per nine to 6.77. In 2010 he appeared to be at a similar pace, 6.97 per nine with the Diamondbacks, before he exploded at the end of the season and ended up with a K/ of 7.78.

 

There are two aspects of Jackson’s game that I’m comfortable in forecasting. He’s probably going to walk three per nine, which is completely acceptable for any pitcher, and actually a very good mark for a back-end guy. Also, his HR/FB ratio has hovered right around 10 percent for the past few years, which is about league average. This is excellent news if he’s the 50 percent ground ball from 2010, but less good news if he’s closer to 40 percent. Again, it’s hard to get a solid reason on the exact type of pitcher he can be for the Yankees.

 

The biggest obstacle in any potential Jackson trade is Chicago’s demands for a return. This will not be another Nick Swisher trade. Jackson is coming off a solid year that got substantially better at the end, when he moved back to the AL. Chicago is clearly all-in this season, so they’re not going to let one of their starters go for cheap — especially because of the uncertainty surrounding Jake Peavy. The White Sox need a third baseman, and the Yankees don’t have one to spare. Or, at least, they don’t have one who represents a substantial upgrade over what the Sox already have in-house. That means finding another match, or involving another team. That complicates the issues, and complications often kill potential trades.

 

If the White Sox do intent to acquire Rafael Soriano and shore up their bullpen, I would like to see the Yankees engage them regarding Jackson. He’s not a perfect fit, as his numbers have been all over the plate in the last three seasons. But he does represent an upgrade over Sergio Mitre and Ivan Nova, which is something the Yankees should be seeking right now. The Sox and the Yanks might not match up on a trade, so I don’t expect anything to come from this. But if he’s available, I’d like to see the Yankees make a decent run for his services.

 

[SoxFan1]

Take this for what it's worth but recently I was out at the mall here in socal and ran into the halos GM Tony Regans and had a chance to talk to him for a bit...he showed luv to sox fans and saw my sox tattoo on my leg and be for he left I asked for anyinside info on rumblings for the offseason. Instantly he a huge smile and said that we were guna be getting someone else good soon...??? What do u guys think could it be soriano? Let's hope another AL gm knows something in the works haha...

While I'd love to think that this means we're signing Soriano, I would think it was more in terms of the attitude and aggressiveness of Kenny Williams and he didn't know anything specifically.

[maggsmaggs]

It just so surprising to me that he hasn't signed with the Yankees. It actually seems too perfect for the marriage. Yankees have the money. Deal with Boras all the time. Have a gaping hole in their bullpen right after Mariano. Could use some insurance in case Mo becomes injured. I still think he will be a Yankee come opening day.

 

[Balta1701]

Colonel Sanders, when you excerpt a large amount of text that you didn't write, can you please include a direct link to the source? Thanks.

[Jack Parkman]

In response to the Jackson to Yankees article, Given what the Sox gave up to get him, and the fact that the Yankees are desperate for starting pitching, I think a Jackson for Nova/Joba/low level pitching prospect w/upside would be fair for both sides. It would make up for KW's payroll blunder of trading Hudson for Jackson, and provide salary relief for the Sox, so they can sign Soriano. I think that the Yankees have soured on Joba, which would lead them to trade him in this package. I'd actually be okay with a 2 for 1 deal of Jackson for Nova/Joba, but KW should see if he could get that prospect thrown in.

This would lead our team being:

Lineup:

1. Pierre

2. Ramirez

3. Rios

4. Dunn

5. Konerko

6. Quentin

7. Pierzynski

8. Beckham

9. Morel/Viciedo

 

Rotation:

BP(Before Peavy)

1. Danks

2. Floyd

3. Buehrle

4. Nova

5. Sale/Joba

 

AP(after Peavy returns)

1.Danks

2.Floyd

3.Buehrle

4.Peavy

5.Nova

 

Bullpen:

LR Pena

MR Sale/Infante(while Peavy is still injured)

MR Santos

MR Joba/Infante

SU Thornton

SU Crain

CL Soriano

 

If Peavy comes back and pitches like a typical AL #4 9-12 wins,4.25-4.50 ERA, the Sox are still okay, and if Nova pitches poorly, you can slide Sale in that slot and give him a try, but you better have a LOOGY in the minors if you do that.

I'll take my chances with the combination of Nova's stuff and Coop's tutelage along with Sale/Joba in the 5th spot until Peavy returns, and we have to cross our fingers that Peavy stays healthy once he returns.

Edited January 5, 2011 by Elgin Slim

[Balta1701]

The biggest flaw in any deal that sends Jackson out and brings 2 pitchers back is that it's a "2 warm bodies for 1 warm body" deal.

 

The Yankees already don't have enough warm bodies to fill their bullpen and rotation. Losing 1 warm body makes that situation worse.

[Jack Parkman]

The biggest flaw in any deal that sends Jackson out and brings 2 pitchers back is that it's a "2 warm bodies for 1 warm body" deal.

 

The Yankees already don't have enough warm bodies to fill their bullpen and rotation. Losing 1 warm body makes that situation worse.

If it meant that, then who would you rather have, Infante or Joba Chamberlain, because IIRC Infante is out of options, and under this scenario when Peavy returns, there is no room for him on the big club

Edited January 5, 2011 by Elgin Slim

[Balta1701]

If it meant that, then who would you rather have, Infante or Joba Chamberlain?

Given that Joba is a first year arb-eligible player this year, honestly, I'll gamble on Infante and the couple million in savings per year for the next 3 years.

 

If Chamberlain struggles, he becomes a DFA candidate next year or especially the year after.

[LittleHurt05]

It just so surprising to me that he hasn't signed with the Yankees. It actually seems too perfect for the marriage. Yankees have the money. Deal with Boras all the time. Have a gaping hole in their bullpen right after Mariano. Could use some insurance in case Mo becomes injured. I still think he will be a Yankee come opening day.

 

I've heard many experts say that they expect Soriano to the Yankees, especially if Pettite doesnt come back. They figure if their rotation will be a mess might as well have 2 of the top 5 relievers in the game at the back end of the bullpen. I assume Soriano wants to be a closer, but I'm sure the right amount of $$$ will change his mind.

[Jack Parkman]

Given that Joba is a first year arb-eligible player this year, honestly, I'll gamble on Infante and the couple million in savings per year for the next 3 years.

 

If Chamberlain struggles, he becomes a DFA candidate next year or especially the year after.

If this is the case, then why wouldn't the Yankees trade him to us in my proposed Jackson deal, and go with a high upside arm, such as Betances/Brackman in the bullpen in his place to break them in to the bigs?

Edited January 5, 2011 by Elgin Slim

[Balta1701]

If this is the case, then why wouldn't the Yankees trade him to us in my proposed Jackson deal, and go with a high upside arm, such as Betances/Brackman in the bullpen in his place to break them in to the bigs?

Because they probably need those guys in their staff already?

 

Rivera

Feleciano

Boone Logan

Damaso Marte (out until July after Shoulder surgery)

Joba Chamberlain

David Robertson

 

Pick your last 2 spots out of their minor leagues (and given the back of their rotation, there's plenty of reason to keep 7 guys in the bullpen to cover innings that the rotation doesn't get).

[Jack Parkman]

A hypothetical question for the board: If we hadn't traded for Jackson, and had Hudson penciled in his place, and he pitched at about a 4.50 ERA for the season for us, would you still be okay with Hudson and Sale as the 4-5 until Peavy returns, or would you want a reclamation pitcher with a bit of a track record to be picked up for insurance?

Another Hypothetical Question:

Would you trade Jackson to the Yankees for Ivan Nova straight up, or would you want more, and do you think a deal such as Jackson for Nova/Romine/low level pitching prospect w/upside would actually happen, if such a deal was on the table?

Edited January 5, 2011 by Elgin Slim

[Balta1701]

A hypothetical question for the board: If we hadn't traded for Jackson, and had Hudson penciled in his place, and he pitched at about a 4.50 ERA for the season for us, would you still be okay with Hudson and Sale as the 4-5 until Peavy returns, or would you want a reclamation pitcher with a bit of a track record to be picked up for insurance?

What happens to the other $9 million?

 

(My answer to your question, btw, is actually yes, I'd have just about as much confidence in Hudson and Sale at the back end as I would in Jackson and Sale, I just want you to note the financials).

[Jack Parkman]

What happens to the other $9 million?

 

(My answer to your question, btw, is actually yes, I'd have just about as much confidence in Hudson and Sale at the back end as I would in Jackson and Sale, I just want you to note the financials).

Since this is the Soriano thread, isn't it obvious? I thought it was.

[Balta1701]

Since this is the Soriano thread, isn't it obvious? I thought it was.

So...Soriano as closer, a rotation to start the year of Buehrle, Floyd, Danks, Hudson, Sale?

 

Yeah, I'd take that option.

[Jack Parkman]

Next Question: Did KW vastly overpay for Jackson, given that he got screwed by Rizzo who backed out of trading him Dunn? If so, what would the market bear for Jackson if we traded him today? Would his price be the same as the Sox paid because that he is still just 27, has wicked stuff, and if some pitching coach could unlock him he could still be an ace? Or would his price be a couple of low level prospects? Do you think that Jackson is what his career has suggested(a #4-5 pitcher) or could he still be better?

The reason why I ask is that if the Sox could trade Jackson to the Yankees for a trade deadline Hudson equivalent(such as a guy like Nova) and use that money to sign Soriano, What are they waiting for? My guess is that KW vastly overpaid.

Edited January 5, 2011 by Elgin Slim

[southsider2k5]

Next Question: Did KW vastly overpay for Jackson, given that he got screwed by Rizzo who backed out of trading him Dunn? If so, what would the market bear for Jackson if we traded him today? Would his price be the same as the Sox paid because that he is still just 27, has wicked stuff, and if some pitching coach could unlock him he could still be an ace? Or would his price be a couple of low level prospects? Do you think that Jackson is what his career has suggested(a #4-5 pitcher) or could he still be better?

The reason why I ask is that if the Sox could trade Jackson to the Yankees for a trade deadline Hudson equivalent(such as a guy like Nova) and use that money to sign Soriano, What are they waiting for? My guess is that KW vastly overpaid.

 

Except this didn't actually happen.

[Harry Chappas]

I think Jackson will be a Type A free agent and I think Hudson comes back down to earth ala John Ely.

 

In the end Jackson will mean more for last season and next than Hudson would have and the Sox will get some nice picks in the draft following Jackson's 20 win year and WS ring.

 

 

[Jordan4life_2007]

Next Question: Did KW vastly overpay for Jackson, given that he got screwed by Rizzo who backed out of trading him Dunn? If so, what would the market bear for Jackson if we traded him today? Would his price be the same as the Sox paid because that he is still just 27, has wicked stuff, and if some pitching coach could unlock him he could still be an ace? Or would his price be a couple of low level prospects? Do you think that Jackson is what his career has suggested(a #4-5 pitcher) or could he still be better?

The reason why I ask is that if the Sox could trade Jackson to the Yankees for a trade deadline Hudson equivalent(such as a guy like Nova) and use that money to sign Soriano, What are they waiting for? My guess is that KW vastly overpaid.

 

That's a resounding YES.

[Jack Parkman]

Except this didn't actually happen.

I thought that someone either posted a link to an article or said that they read an article in the Washington newspaper within the past week that said that there was a handshake agreement between Rizzo and KW, but ownership of the Nationals nixed it because they wanted to re-sign Dunn to a long term deal.

Edited January 5, 2011 by Elgin Slim

[southsider2k5]

I thought that someone either posted a link to an article or said that they read an article in the Washington newspaper within the past week that said that there was a handshake agreement between Rizzo and KW, but ownership of the Nationals nixed it because they wanted to re-sign Dunn to a long term deal.

 

I sure haven't seen it.

[bighurt574]

Next Question: Did KW vastly overpay for Jackson, given that he got screwed by Rizzo who backed out of trading him Dunn? If so, what would the market bear for Jackson if we traded him today? Would his price be the same as the Sox paid because that he is still just 27, has wicked stuff, and if some pitching coach could unlock him he could still be an ace? Or would his price be a couple of low level prospects? Do you think that Jackson is what his career has suggested(a #4-5 pitcher) or could he still be better?

The reason why I ask is that if the Sox could trade Jackson to the Yankees for a trade deadline Hudson equivalent(such as a guy like Nova) and use that money to sign Soriano, What are they waiting for? My guess is that KW vastly overpaid.

 

Well, Jackson has already lost some value because he's only under contract for another year, as opposed to the year and a half when we traded for him. We got the benefit of having him for last year's stretch run. We also paid a fair amount for that.

[Jack Parkman]

I sure haven't seen it.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...ST2010121507078

Here it is. I knew I saw it somewhere, it was on WSI where I saw the article link.

It is on the second page, the article is from 12/15/2010

Edited January 5, 2011 by Elgin Slim

[southsider2k5]

I thought that someone either posted a link to an article or said that they read an article in the Washington newspaper within the past week that said that there was a handshake agreement between Rizzo and KW, but ownership of the Nationals nixed it because they wanted to re-sign Dunn to a long term deal.

 

I did some googling and you are indeed correct. I am going to post the story.

[jenksycat]

That's a resounding YES.

 

No it's not...not until Hudson proves he can pitch (and no, 2 months last year doesn't prove anything).