Realistic Adam Dunn expectations

[chw42]

I might have agreed with you 5 years ago, but reliable 40 HR guys don't grow on trees anymore.

 

 

Offense is taking a dip like crazy right now. League average wOBA dropped all the way down from .328 to .321 last year. OPS dropped even more.

 

It could be that last year was an outlier, but the fact of the matter is that offense is declining sharply in baseball.

[Milkman delivers]

Offense is taking a dip like crazy right now. League average wOBA dropped all the way down from .328 to .321 last year. OPS dropped even more.

 

It could be that last year was an outlier, but the fact of the matter is that offense is declining sharply in baseball.

 

Alright, what exactly is happening in your avatar? I see Beltre overreacting to Martinez touching his hair, but what is going on with Pedroia?

[chw42]

Alright, what exactly is happening in your avatar? I see Beltre overreacting to Martinez touching his hair, but what is going on with Pedroia?

 

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/01/...touch-his-head/

 

That's Scutaro, not Pedroia.

Edited January 11, 2011 by chw42

[ChiSox_Sonix]

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/01/...touch-his-head/

 

That's Scutaro, not Pedroia.

 

That's hilarious.

[WHITESOXRANDY]

What exactly is one of the best power hitters and run producers in the game worth then?

 

Run producer? I guess that you and I are talking about two different players. I'm talking Adam Dunn.

 

I'm talking about a guy that HAS to hit 40 home runs to barely knock in 100 runs. That's what happens when he can't touch the ball 1 out of 3 trips to the plate and have a .250 average. You can't hardly drive in a run unless you hit it out of the park. And, 38 -40 homers is a lot but it isn't 45-55.

 

For comparison's sake in the NL last year- Juan Uribe knocked in 85 and SS Troy Tulowittzki missed 30 games and knocked in 95. I guess that's why Dunn has never finished in the top 20 in the NL MVP voting even once in his career. I guess others don't think he's very valuable either.

 

Maybe, that's why he's never been in a playoff game or even played on a team with a winning record. However, the Reds somehow got better as soon as he left. Hey, I'm not saying the guy is worthless but he's hardly a star or a great player and that's a big contract.

 

Especially, when there are much better hitters still out there that the Sox could have saved a lot of money on the DH spot. Let's see Vlad Guerrero, a HOF hitter that just knocked in 115 last year(much more than Dunn ever did) and batted .300 again for about $ 5-6 mil. or the 200 K king for $ 56 mil ?

 

 

[chw42]

Run producer? I guess that you and I are talking about two different players. I'm talking Adam Dunn.

 

I'm talking about a guy that HAS to hit 40 home runs to barely knock in 100 runs. That's what happens when he can't touch the ball 1 out of 3 trips to the plate and have a .250 average. You can't hardly drive in a run unless you hit it out of the park. And, 38 -40 homers is a lot but it isn't 45-55.

 

For comparison's sake in the NL last year- Juan Uribe knocked in 85 and SS Troy Tulowittzki missed 30 games and knocked in 95. I guess that's why Dunn has never finished in the top 20 in the NL MVP voting even once in his career. I guess others don't think he's very valuable either.

 

Maybe, that's why he's never been in a playoff game or even played on a team with a winning record. However, the Reds somehow got better as soon as he left. Hey, I'm not saying the guy is worthless but he's hardly a star or a great player and that's a big contract.

 

Especially, when there are much better hitters still out there that the Sox could have saved a lot of money on the DH spot. Let's see Vlad Guerrero, a HOF hitter that just knocked in 115 last year(much more than Dunn ever did) and batted .300 again for about $ 5-6 mil. or the 200 K king for $ 56 mil ?

 

You do realize Adam Dunn played for a team that scored a total of 655 runs last year right? That was good for 25th in all of baseball. The Nationals were also 22nd in OBP. It's not a mystery as to why he only knocked in 100 runs. If there's nobody to get on base in front of him, who does he have to knock in besides himself?

 

RBI is one of the worst ways to measure a player's offensive ability. When most people on here say "run producer" they mean how many runs this guy bring with his OPS, his wOBA, or his wRC. Nobody's really talking about RBI.

Edited January 12, 2011 by chw42

[bighurt574]

And, 38 -40 homers is a lot but it isn't 45-55.

 

I think you need to recalibrate your expectations for the PED-testing era -- not many breaking the 35 HR mark.

 

Last year's HR leaders:

 

Bautista - 54

Pujols - 42

Konerko - 39

Dunn - 38

Cabrera - 38

Votto - 37

 

And Vlad is 5 years older with an injury history, btw.

Edited January 12, 2011 by bighurt574

[WHITESOXRANDY]

Find me the players that have averaged 35 homers a year for the past 10 years. That will answer your question.

 

Is he gonna knock in 35 homers a year for the last 10 years for the Sox this year? What does that have to do with anything?

 

The point is the guy is NOT a big run producer. He's only a DH and there are clearly better hitters out there for less money - Jim Thome for one.

 

Is there any doubt at all that the White Sox would win more games this year with Vlad in the DH spot than Dunn? Vlad is a professional HOF hitter. There will be no such thing as situational hitting with Dunn. I would like to know how many runs he drove in last year when the ball didn't leave the ballpark?

 

I think that many Sox fans are going to be dissapointed after seeing how little Dunn really contributes to the team after watching him everyday.

[bighurt574]

Is he gonna knock in 35 homers a year for the last 10 years for the Sox this year? What does that have to do with anything?

 

Are you seriously suggesting that it's unreasonable to expect 35+ HR's from Dunn this year?

 

Vlad will be 36 this year. He's the bigger risk, let alone over the next 4 years that we'll have Dunn still in his prime.

[chw42]

Is he gonna knock in 35 homers a year for the last 10 years for the Sox this year? What does that have to do with anything?

 

The point is the guy is NOT a big run producer. He's only a DH and there are clearly better hitters out there for less money - Jim Thome for one.

 

Is there any doubt at all that the White Sox would win more games this year with Vlad in the DH spot than Dunn? Vlad is a professional HOF hitter. There will be no such thing as situational hitting with Dunn. I would like to know how many runs he drove in last year when the ball didn't leave the ballpark?

 

I think that many Sox fans are going to be dissapointed after seeing how little Dunn really contributes to the team after watching him everyday.

 

Jim Thome can't stay healthy. Vlad really can't either. Go look at his second half splits last year.

 

Dunn is at least 4 years younger than both of those guys. He's been more consistent and healthier. There's a reason why Dunn's projected market value was $12 million per year when the other guys haven't even signed yet.

[bigruss]

Is he gonna knock in 35 homers a year for the last 10 years for the Sox this year? What does that have to do with anything?

 

The point is the guy is NOT a big run producer. He's only a DH and there are clearly better hitters out there for less money - Jim Thome for one.

 

Is there any doubt at all that the White Sox would win more games this year with Vlad in the DH spot than Dunn? Vlad is a professional HOF hitter. There will be no such thing as situational hitting with Dunn. I would like to know how many runs he drove in last year when the ball didn't leave the ballpark?

 

I think that many Sox fans are going to be dissapointed after seeing how little Dunn really contributes to the team after watching him everyday.

Wait, you say that Dunn isn't good becaue he can only DH and strikes out a ton, and then you say Thome is better!?! I should be surprised by fans like this but really Im not, they jump on a bandwagon focused on hating a player because although they are good their team doesn't go anywhere. That's not the player's fault, it's the team's fault.

 

Dunn is one of the most consistent power hitters in the game. He won't hit .300, but the Sox don't need him to. He'll put up a .900ish OPS and help out the Sox aplenty.

[WHITESOXRANDY]

Are you seriously suggesting that it's unreasonable to expect 35+ HR's from Dunn this year?

 

Vlad will be 36 this year. He's the bigger risk, let alone over the next 4 years that we'll have Dunn still in his prime.

 

I think that some of you are confused about the sport. It's called "baseball " not " home run". In fact, a team can aactually lose a game 2-1 while still outhomering the opposition. Adam Dunn does so little on a baseball field. Any player that can play any defensive poistion adequately and provide respectable offense is worth far more than a DH.

 

Incidentally, last year Dunn finished 23rd in runs created - right behind Kelly Johnson. Konerko finished 7th, Jayson Werth 11th, 2b Richie Weeks 12th, 2b Dan Uggla 16th (signed for less than Dunn) and Shin-Soo Choo was 18th.

 

Dunn is okay for a DH. He just isn't much of a ballplayer at all and certainly won't be worth $ 56 mil. The only thing I've heard anyone say in his defense is "he can hit 35-40 homers". Well, I guess in that world Dave Kingman is the greatest player that ever lived.

[Milkman delivers]

Run producer? I guess that you and I are talking about two different players. I'm talking Adam Dunn.

 

I'm talking about a guy that HAS to hit 40 home runs to barely knock in 100 runs. That's what happens when he can't touch the ball 1 out of 3 trips to the plate and have a .250 average. You can't hardly drive in a run unless you hit it out of the park. And, 38 -40 homers is a lot but it isn't 45-55.

 

For comparison's sake in the NL last year- Juan Uribe knocked in 85 and SS Troy Tulowittzki missed 30 games and knocked in 95. I guess that's why Dunn has never finished in the top 20 in the NL MVP voting even once in his career. I guess others don't think he's very valuable either.

 

Maybe, that's why he's never been in a playoff game or even played on a team with a winning record. However, the Reds somehow got better as soon as he left. Hey, I'm not saying the guy is worthless but he's hardly a star or a great player and that's a big contract.

 

Especially, when there are much better hitters still out there that the Sox could have saved a lot of money on the DH spot. Let's see Vlad Guerrero, a HOF hitter that just knocked in 115 last year(much more than Dunn ever did) and batted .300 again for about $ 5-6 mil. or the 200 K king for $ 56 mil ?

 

Hilarious.

[chw42]

I think that some of you are confused about the sport. It's called "baseball " not " home run". In fact, a team can aactually lose a game 2-1 while still outhomering the opposition. Adam Dunn does so little on a baseball field. Any player that can play any defensive poistion adequately and provide respectable offense is worth far more than a DH.

 

Incidentally, last year Dunn finished 23rd in runs created - right behind Kelly Johnson. Konerko finished 7th, Jayson Werth 11th, 2b Richie Weeks 12th, 2b Dan Uggla 16th (signed for less than Dunn) and Shin-Soo Choo was 18th.

 

Dunn is okay for a DH. He just isn't much of a ballplayer at all and certainly won't be worth $ 56 mil. The only thing I've heard anyone say in his defense is "he can hit 35-40 homers". Well, I guess in that world Dave Kingman is the greatest player that ever lived.

 

There's nothing wrong with being 22nd in wRC. In fact, his wRC+ would have been the highest of all DHs last season. You're paying fair market money for the best DH in the American League. There's nothing wrong with that.

 

[WHITESOXRANDY]

Hilarious.

 

Go ahead and explain why Adam Dunn has never managed to finish in the 20 in NL MVP voting in his entire 10 year career ? How is it that the guy is so valuable but never happens to be even one the 20 best in the National League? Let's hear your excuses for that. In fact, you couldn't even find 1 star player that never did that. Go ahead - find one.

[chw42]

Go ahead and explain why Adam Dunn has never managed to finish in the 20 in NL MVP voting in his entire 10 year career ? How is it that the guy is so valuable but never happens to be even one the 20 best in the National League? Let's hear your excuses for that. In fact, you couldn't even find 1 star player that never did that. Go ahead - find one.

 

A.J. Pierzynski once finished in the top 25 in MVP voting. Joe Cowley put him in as a joke vote. He had his voting rights revoked after that I think.

 

Shouldn't that tell you how much of a joke the voting for the MVP is after maybe the first 5 candidates? It brings no relevance that he's never finished in the top 25 in MVP voting. He sucked at fielding, I wouldn't have put him in the top 20 either. But since he doesn't have to field now, most of his problems go away.

Edited January 12, 2011 by chw42

[Milkman delivers]

Hey J4L, I think someone is about to pass you over as the resident whipping boy

 

Go ahead and explain why Adam Dunn has never managed to finish in the 20 in NL MVP voting in his entire 10 year career ? How is it that the guy is so valuable but never happens to be even one the 20 best in the National League? Let's hear your excuses for that. In fact, you couldn't even find 1 star player that never did that. Go ahead - find one.

 

There's no point in arguing with you. Your arguments are fraught with terrible logic.

[WHITESOXRANDY]

There's nothing wrong with being 22nd in wRC. In fact, his wRC+ would have been the highest of all DHs last season. You're paying fair market money for the best DH in the American League. There's nothing wrong with that.

 

 

Except that he'smaking more money than almost every player that created more runs than he did and they actually play a DEFENSIVE position! They play the whole game and help win games on defense and some can actually run and help their teams on the bases. They can bunt, hit and run etc.

 

Way way overpaid for Dunn. But, I guess that's why Kenny got him. Didn't see other teams tripping over themselves to give him that money.

Edited January 12, 2011 by WHITESOXRANDY

[chw42]

Hey J4L, I think someone is about to pass you over as the resident whipping boy

 

 

 

There's no point in arguing with you. Your arguments are fraught with terrible logic.

 

At least J4L had logical reasons to look at things the way he did.

[Balta1701]

Go ahead and explain why Adam Dunn has never managed to finish in the 20 in NL MVP voting in his entire 10 year career ? How is it that the guy is so valuable but never happens to be even one the 20 best in the National League? Let's hear your excuses for that. In fact, you couldn't even find 1 star player that never did that. Go ahead - find one.

Because voters correctly take "incredibly bad on defense" into account when voting for an MVP, and also indirectly take into account "Quality of a team's pitching staff and other players" in that they rarely vote highly for guys on teams with terrible pitching staffs?

[Milkman delivers]

At least J4L had logical reasons to look at things the way he did.

 

Agreed.

[bigruss]

Except that he'smaking more money than almost every player that created more runs than he did and they actually play a DEFENSIVE position! They play the whole game and help win games on defense and some can actually run and help their teams on the bases. They can bunt, hit and run etc.

 

Way way overpaid for Dunn. But, I guess that's why Kenny got him. Didn't see other teams tripping over themselves to give him that money.

It's baseball, many players like Kelly Johnson will pop up as bargains every year, and then fall back into mediocrity.

 

Luckily for the Sox and Dunn, the DH doesn't have to play defense, yet is a position needed to be filled. Kotsay was a decent defender but when he DH'ed he had no impact whatsoever from his defensive abilities.

 

Yes, Dunn hits a lot of HRs (don't know how that is really abad thing) and won't get a lot of singles, and will strike out quite a bit, but he produces quite a bit and will be one of the best, if not the best, at the DH position and that warrants a lot of value. And it's baseball, to sign a FA you'll have to pay for that value.

[chw42]

Except that he'smaking more money than almost every player that created more runs than he did and they actually play a DEFENSIVE position! They play the whole game and help win games on defense and some can actually run and help their teams on the bases. They can bunt, hit and run etc.

 

Way way overpaid for Dunn.

 

You want Adam Dunn to bunt and hit and run? Seriously?

 

Just for the sake of ending this horrible debate, let's look at the 2011 salaries of players ahead of Dunn in wRC+ from last season. And in order to make this fair, the player must be no longer arbitration eligible (6 or more years of service). Arbitration and pre-arb players don't count. This way, we can determine the value of a player better or like Dunn in the free agent market.

 

Miguel Cabrera - $20 million

Paul Konerko - $12 million

Matt Holliday - $17 million (That's until 2016, then he gets deferred payments)

Jayson Werth - $10 million (but he's getting $116 million the other 6 years of his deal)

Aubrey Huff - $10 million

Adrian Beltre - $14 million (then at least $76 million for the other 4 years)

Carl Crawford - $14 million (and then $126 million for the other 6 years)

 

The only guy who is much cheaper than Dunn is Huff. And that's understandable since he's older and he probably took a discount from the Giants. Everybody else is either at similar value or they're paid way more. That's also understandable, but you have to realize the market's value before you go rambling about how so and so isn't worth he's being paid.

Edited January 12, 2011 by chw42

[DirtySox]

This thread has quickly turned hilarious.

 

[witesoxfan]

Wow. So Vladimir Guerrero is better than Adam Dunn? Sure, if you are giving value to players who swing at anything and use loads of pine tar. And Thome is better than Dunn? That one is the most comical of all, considering Dunn is pretty much the same hitter that Thome was 7 years ago.

 

Suffice to say, there's a reason you are the only one arguing what you're arguing. It's like arguing that you'd rather have a Ford Pinto instead of a Mustang because it's cheaper, only to find out that your choice blew up on you the second something hit it wrong.

Edited January 12, 2011 by witesoxfan