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Realistic Adam Dunn expectations


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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 12, 2011 -> 06:43 PM)
Wow. So Vladimir Guerrero is better than Adam Dunn? Sure, if you are giving value to players who swing at anything and use loads of pine tar. And Thome is better than Dunn? That one is the most comical of all, considering Dunn is pretty much the same hitter that Thome was 7 years ago.

Ok, I've defended Dunn and you're right...but I gotta step up for Big Jim here.

 

7 years ago, Big Jim put up a 154 OPS+ in Philly. Dunn is very consistent; he'll give uo a 130-ish OPS+ every year, but he's only topped 140 once in his career, back in 2004. From 1993 to 2007, Jimmy put up a .985 OPS and a 152 OPS+. Dunn has never gotten those numbers in a single season.

 

Big Jim wouldn't be better than Dunn at 600 at bats right now...but let's not sell Jim short. He was absolutely f***ing ridiculous.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 12, 2011 -> 05:43 PM)
Wow. So Vladimir Guerrero is better than Adam Dunn? Sure, if you are giving value to players who swing at anything and use loads of pine tar. And Thome is better than Dunn? That one is the most comical of all, considering Dunn is pretty much the same hitter that Thome was 7 years ago.

 

Suffice to say, there's a reason you are the only one arguing what you're arguing. It's like arguing that you'd rather have a Ford Pinto instead of a Mustang because it's cheaper, only to find out that your choice blew up on you the second something hit it wrong.

 

Unless this is OOTP 6.5...

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 12, 2011 -> 05:47 PM)
Ok, I've defended Dunn and you're right...but I gotta step up for Big Jim here.

 

7 years ago, Big Jim put up a 154 OPS+ in Philly. Dunn is very consistent; he'll give uo a 130-ish OPS+ every year, but he's only topped 140 once in his career, back in 2004. From 1993 to 2007, Jimmy put up a .985 OPS and a 152 OPS+. Dunn has never gotten those numbers in a single season.

 

Big Jim wouldn't be better than Dunn at 600 at bats right now...but let's not sell Jim short. He was absolutely f***ing ridiculous.

 

Kind of a ticky tack point, isn't it? Thome was better, but Thome and Dunn are pretty similar hitters, and Dunn is a far better hitter over the course of a season than Thome is right now.

 

More importantly, give that analogy some love!

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 13, 2011 -> 03:43 AM)
Kind of a ticky tack point, isn't it? Thome was better, but Thome and Dunn are pretty similar hitters, and Dunn is a far better hitter over the course of a season than Thome is right now.

 

More importantly, give that analogy some love!

I'm not giving that analogy love. Jimmy was that good.

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  • 4 months later...

I think Dunn is a total bust. A cheaper version of Alfonso Soriano. He's fat, he's lazy, his bat speed sucks and his batter's eye is too poor to play in a league with increasingly terrific young pitching. Greg Walker will only make him worse, which is saying something.

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How is Adam Dunn working out so far?? Dont mean to say I told you so.. But..

 

I wonder if the Nationals will take him back if we eat some salary? One can hope.

 

** HOLY CRAP!!! ** I just looked Adam LaRoche is hitting .172 with only 3 HR's and has K'd 39 times. Maybe we have some hope of trading Dunn back!!

Edited by SpainSOXfan09
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QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ May 23, 2011 -> 11:34 PM)
I think Dunn is a total bust. A cheaper version of Alfonso Soriano. He's fat, he's lazy, his bat speed sucks and his batter's eye is too poor to play in a league with increasingly terrific young pitching. Greg Walker will only make him worse, which is saying something.

 

The bold is what bothers me the most. I don't remember him ever looking so out of shape.

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QUOTE (Jordan4life @ May 24, 2011 -> 05:44 AM)
The bold is what bothers me the most. I don't remember him ever looking so out of shape.

 

It's called being fat and happy with a nice contract.

Problem is some ballplayers live the good life (eat, drink in offseason) when they get such contracts.

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Considering what Dunn's expected BA was, there's plenty of time for him to improve. But there's no doubt he's struggling mightily. He will have to turn it around quickly in order to hit even 30 HRs.

 

If he ends up with 650 plate appearances and continues on this pace he'll end up with 105 hits, 37 2Bs 15 HRs, and 78 RBIs. The hits and HRs would be career lows when he has at least 600 PAs. Oddly enough though it would be a career high for 2Bs.

 

I certainly don't see Dunn ending with stats that poor, but I'd think his HR total will be closer to 28-30 instead of 40+ as we had expected/hoped.

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QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ May 24, 2011 -> 06:23 AM)
Considering what Dunn's expected BA was, there's plenty of time for him to improve. But there's no doubt he's struggling mightily. He will have to turn it around quickly in order to hit even 30 HRs.

 

If he ends up with 650 plate appearances and continues on this pace he'll end up with 105 hits, 37 2Bs 15 HRs, and 78 RBIs. The hits and HRs would be career lows when he has at least 600 PAs. Oddly enough though it would be a career high for 2Bs.

 

I certainly don't see Dunn ending with stats that poor, but I'd think his HR total will be closer to 28-30 instead of 40+ as we had expected/hoped.

We really don't care what he ends up with at the end of the season. What we want to see is him produce to his career norms from here on out. If he were to do that, I think we'd be in pretty good shape.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 24, 2011 -> 07:46 AM)
Anyways, Dunn will hit homers. He has always hit homers.

I keep telling myself this and waiting for games where he strikes out fewer than 3 times... That appendectomy really threw him off his game, he was swinging the bat really well to start the season, then poof, gonezo.

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QUOTE (Steve9347 @ May 24, 2011 -> 08:29 AM)
I keep telling myself this and waiting for games where he strikes out fewer than 3 times... That appendectomy really threw him off his game, he was swinging the bat really well to start the season, then poof, gonezo.

I was thinking this same thing yesterday but then I remembered Matt Holliday who was rushed in for an emergency appendectomy- and he seems to be hitting just fine.

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QUOTE (The Baconator @ May 24, 2011 -> 09:13 AM)
I was thinking this same thing yesterday but then I remembered Matt Holliday who was rushed in for an emergency appendectomy- and he seems to be hitting just fine.

 

He also took a lot longer off to be fair.

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QUOTE (iamshack @ May 24, 2011 -> 06:27 AM)
We really don't care what he ends up with at the end of the season. What we want to see is him produce to his career norms from here on out. If he were to do that, I think we'd be in pretty good shape.

 

Um, I care. We're paying the guy a lot of money. I expect him to put up his career numbers, not his worst season by far.

 

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 24, 2011 -> 07:46 AM)
Anyways, Dunn will hit homers. He has always hit homers.

 

I envy the optimism, but when is this supposed to start?

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QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ May 24, 2011 -> 09:21 AM)
Um, I care. We're paying the guy a lot of money. I expect him to put up his career numbers, not his worst season by far.

 

 

 

I envy the optimism, but when is this supposed to start?

To me he is the opposite of Jose Bautista who re-invented his swing and is a god now (maybe there are other factors, too, but whatever). Meanwhile Dunn has a horrible swing mechanically that is prevented him from making consistent contract. He just doesn't even look like he has a chance when he goes to the plate.

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I posted a while ago that Dunn's biggest adjustment is getting used to seeing the ball over the extra chin he now has. I was kidding about that, but he's fatter than he's ever been. I know he's a big guy but he's too big right now and has been all year. He's listed at 6'6 285. I'll bet you he's closer to 315 than 285.

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He also took a lot longer off to be fair.

 

Well I guess a fair way to look at this (And one theme that has been common on this board) is to see where the team is and headed around the 1st week of June. Since Dunn's success is intrinsically tied to the team and vice versa we will know for sure what kind of stats he is on course to achieve (Not to mention where the team is in the standings and how much ground they have gained/lost) by this time frame. Sure hope the Sox and Dunn have a monster road trip.

Edited by SpainSOXfan09
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