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Realistic Adam Dunn expectations


DOWNTOWN PANTHER

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QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ May 24, 2011 -> 09:31 AM)
To me he is the opposite of Jose Bautista who re-invented his swing and is a god now (maybe there are other factors, too, but whatever). Meanwhile Dunn has a horrible swing mechanically that is prevented him from making consistent contract. He just doesn't even look like he has a chance when he goes to the plate.

 

That never, ever happens on the Sox.

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QUOTE (Steve9347 @ May 24, 2011 -> 10:54 AM)
Yeah, we should definitely never fire Greg Walker or anyone.

 

But you forget, he doesn't have any effect on established veterans because they are already set in their ways/swings. He only helps the young guys. You know, all of those young stud hitters we routinely produce.

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QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ May 24, 2011 -> 11:00 AM)
Remember all of the talk about how we'll automatically be better just by replacing Kotsay with Dunn? Who would have ever thought that that wouldn't be true?

Yeah no kidding. At least move him down to the 5 or 6 hole.

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QUOTE (BigSqwert @ May 24, 2011 -> 11:02 AM)
Yeah no kidding. At least move him down to the 5 or 6 hole.

 

I just want to clarify to people that I wasn't being sarcastic. Who would have ever thought that Kotsay would be a better option almost two full months into the season?

 

Is Ozzie Guillen a genius?

 

(That part was sarcasm)

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QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ May 24, 2011 -> 11:03 AM)
I just want to clarify to people that I wasn't being sarcastic. Who would have ever thought that Kotsay would be a better option almost two full months into the season?

Satan

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My expectations for Dunn were large, but essentally consistent with his career numbers. I agree he looks to have added some pounds, but I am not ready to attribute his suckitude to being "fat and happy" with his contract. If anything, I suspect it might be the opposite, with him putting too much pressure on himself to justifty the contract, something the missed time due to injury may have only compounded.

 

I keep thinking back to Albert Belle, who was the last huge bat the Sox acquired in free agency. He sucked relentlessly in his first half-season here, although so far Dunn has been even worse. Of course, Belle turned it around in the second half, and he went on to have one of the best offensive seasons in franchise history the next year.

 

Dunn will hit here. I don't know whether he will hit enough or turn it around in time to help this team do anything this year, but I'm pretty confident that he will come close to his career averages once he finally relaxes and adjusts to a new team, new league, new position, etc. Granted, he's shown absolutely nothing to warrant this faith and I don't really know how his bat speed compares to before, but I have a hard time believing that his physical skills substantially deteriorated over the winter, or because of a few added pounds.

Edited by PlaySumFnJurny
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QUOTE (PlaySumFnJurny @ May 24, 2011 -> 11:07 AM)
My expectations for Dunn were large, but essentally consistent with his career numbers. I agree he looks to have added some pounds, but I am not ready to attribute his suckitude to being "fat and happy" with his contract. If anything, I suspect it might be the opposite, with him putting too much pressure on himself to justifty the contract, something the missed time due to injury may have only compounded.

 

I keep thinking back to Albert Belle, who was the last huge bat the Sox acquired in free agency. He sucked relentlessly in his first half-season here, although so far Dunn has been even worse. Of course, Belle turned it around in the second half, and he went on to have one of the best offensive seasons in franchise history the next year.

 

Dunn will hit here. I don't know whether he will hit enough or turn it around in time to help this team do anything this year, but I'm pretty confident that he will come close to his career averages once he finally relaxes and adjusts to a new team, new league, new position, etc. Granted, he's shown absolutely nothing to warrant this faith and I don't really know how his bat speed compares to before, but I have a hard time believing that his physical skills substantially deteriorated over the winter, or because of a few added pounds.

 

Perhaps, like Belle, he'll have a huge year in his second season with the Sox. Unfortunately for us, that huge offensive year might come during a season where the Sox aren't even competing.

 

Maybe Adam Dunn is an offensive version of Javier Vazquez. He could be just a born loser, a guy who can't cut it on a competitive team or with any expectations on his shoulders.

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I dont think he looks any different than any other season. He just isnt making good contact. He is lunging out over the plate and jamming himself on inside pitches. And its clearly gotten to him, when he hit that RBI a few games ago he was joking about blacking out in the dugout.

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QUOTE (BigSqwert @ May 24, 2011 -> 04:02 PM)
But actually has the ability to make contact with a pitch.

Batting averages in May:

Quentin: .190

Dunn: .214

 

OBP in May:

Quentin: .278

Dunn: .330

 

OPS in May:

Quentin: .659

Dunn: .741

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If we went entirely on what are you doing in May, and assumed that Pierre was stuck in the 1 spot, you'd put Vizquel or Beckham in teh #3 spot, since they're at least hitting some. The next candidates based on OPS would be Adam Dunn and Brent Morel (who is hitting .300 in May).

 

I only type that of course to once again illustrate here the absurdity of the fact that Brent Morel has 12 at bats in the team's last 12 games.

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I'm not expecting anything from Dunn. I'm expecting Viciedo to be called up so we can have a damn bat in the lineup who can smash lefties and play some left field. I am not expecting my expectations to be met however.

 

CQ has sure made a great contribution tonight.

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