So... is Kenny done?

[justBLAZE]

How about Sale needs to be in the bullpen because it makes the 2011 White Sox better.

 

This isn't project prospect, we're trying to win the World Series.

[3E8]

Its possible, but its also possible he's hit a wall. He lost a little velocity as the season went along

Santos fastball velocity by month per http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/index.php

 

April: 95.5

May: 95.5

June: 96.0

July: 95.4

Aug: 95.5

Sept: 95.3

 

Looks pretty consistent to me.

[Dick Allen]

Santos fastball velocity by month per http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/index.php

 

April: 95.5

May: 95.5

June: 96.0

July: 95.4

Aug: 95.5

Sept: 95.3

 

Looks pretty consistent to me.

Yes it does. I just go by the games. It seemed to me he was hitting 98 a lot more the beginning of the season. Maybe he wasn't, but the second half of 2010, Sergio Santos wasn't very good. And if the argument is his arm needed strength after throwing 30 innings, considering he'd been pitching for a year and preparing to be a pitcher last offseason, I don't see how anyone could possibly assume he would be go to go for 50-70 solid innings in 2011.

Edited January 9, 2011 by Dick Allen

[Dick Allen]

This logic is just silly. Not only are they not even close to the same type of pitcher, but their backgrounds are also totally different. The only reason why you'd compare those two is that they're left-handed. It makes as much sense for me to say "Sale needs to be in the rotation, they put McCarthy in the bullpen in 2006 and it did hurt him".

What's it about Sale, who is accustumed to being a starter, but did quite well in a limited time in the bullpen, that is going to kill him if he spends 2011 in the bullpen? It what makes the 2011 White Sox best IMO. And even if he ultimately became a lockdown bullpen guy instead of a #4 or #5 starter, because I doubt ace type guys are ruined spending one year in the bullpen, I don't see where that ultimately kills the Sox first round "value" for him, another argument a lot of people make around here for why he has to be a starter. Considering their history of first round picks, anyone who actually contributes to winning, is better than most.

Edited January 9, 2011 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

What's it about Sale, who is accustumed to being a starter, but did quite well in a limited time in the bullpen, that is going to kill him if he spends 2011 in the bullpen? It what makes the 2011 White Sox best IMO. And even if he ultimately became a lockdown bullpen guy instead of a #4 or #5 starter, because I doubt ace type guys are ruined spending one year in the bullpen, I don't see where that ultimately kills the Sox first round "value" for him, another argument a lot of people make around here for why he has to be a starter. Considering their history of first round picks, anyone who actually contributes to winning, is better than most.

Well...I certainly can give reasons...having a guy like Sale warm up and pitch 60-70 times in short bursts, where he's coming out and throwing all fastballs every time, could easily be harder on his arm than long innings. It just works differently for some people. Moving them to the bullpen isn't necessarily "protection".

 

The one thing I just don't want to do, long-term, is sacrifice the fact that his arm is already accustomed to throwing a good number of innings per year, because then if you try to move his innings back up, you need to re-adjust his arm. Bouncing around like that can be another bad thing for an arm.

[Dick Allen]

How about Sale needs to be in the bullpen because it makes the 2011 White Sox better.

 

This isn't project prospect, we're trying to win the World Series.

Exactly, and the logic is, if Sale has the ingredients to be a top of the rotation starter, a year in the bullpen isn't going to ruin that. If he's in the bullpen in 2011 and is a failed starter in 2012 and beyond, blaming it on a year in the bullpen would be ridiculous.

[Dick Allen]

Well...I certainly can give reasons...having a guy like Sale warm up and pitch 60-70 times in short bursts, where he's coming out and throwing all fastballs every time, could easily be harder on his arm than long innings. It just works differently for some people. Moving them to the bullpen isn't necessarily "protection".

 

The one thing I just don't want to do, long-term, is sacrifice the fact that his arm is already accustomed to throwing a good number of innings per year, because then if you try to move his innings back up, you need to re-adjust his arm. Bouncing around like that can be another bad thing for an arm.

Smoltz was able to do it. Its not always for protection, but one thing Ozzie is pretty good at is not overusing his bullpen. Pitchers get hurt and sit out seasons and come back and throw a lot of innings all the time. A year in the bullpen isn't going to ruin him. If he fails, he would have failed anyway.

[Balta1701]

Smoltz was able to do it. Its not always for protection, but one thing Ozzie is pretty good at is not overusing his bullpen. Pitchers get hurt and sit out seasons and come back and throw a lot of innings all the time. A year in the bullpen isn't going to ruin him. If he fails, he would have failed anyway.

You know why Smoltz was able to do it? Because right after his first surgery, his doctor told him that it would be less tough on his arm to limit his innings, so they moved him to the bullpen. But then, a couple years later, they told him that things had reversed, and with the condition of his arm, warming up 60+ times a year would be more likely to re-injure it, so that's when he reverted back to starting.

 

Smoltz did it because he had to in order to follow doctor's advice.

[Dick Allen]

You know why Smoltz was able to do it? Because right after his first surgery, his doctor told him that it would be less tough on his arm to limit his innings, so they moved him to the bullpen. But then, a couple years later, they told him that things had reversed, and with the condition of his arm, warming up 60+ times a year would be more likely to re-injure it, so that's when he reverted back to starting.

 

Smoltz did it because he had to in order to follow doctor's advice.

My point wasn't necessarily protecting Sale. My point was Sale in the bullpen makes the Sox a better team. Smoltz relieved 4 or 5 years, and he came back into the rotation and was fine. 1 year in the bullpen won't kill Sale.

 

 

[Balta1701]

My point wasn't necessarily protecting Sale. My point was Sale in the bullpen makes the Sox a better team. Smoltz relieved 4 or 5 years, and he came back into the rotation and was fine. 1 year in the bullpen won't kill Sale.

If the Braves had had the choice of where to put Smoltz, they'd have put him in the rotation.

 

And you don't know that 1 year in the bullpen won't be a major setback, just like I don't know that it will be. I just feel like you're absolutely refusing to acknowledge that there is any risk inherent to his career by using him this way

[Dick Allen]

If the Braves had had the choice of where to put Smoltz, they'd have put him in the rotation.

 

And you don't know that 1 year in the bullpen won't be a major setback, just like I don't know that it will be. I just feel like you're absolutely refusing to acknowledge that there is any risk inherent to his career by using him this way

You're refusing to acknowledge that putting him in the bullpen can be anything but bad. You're so concerned with first round draft pick "value." Please give me examples of pitchers who would have been stars, but were ruined because teams decided to put them in the bullpen. You would have a hard time proving that was the reason.

[Balta1701]

You're refusing to acknowledge that putting him in the bullpen can be anything but bad. You're so concerned with first round draft pick "value." Please give me examples of pitchers who would have been stars, but were ruined because teams decided to put them in the bullpen. You would have a hard time proving that was the reason.

Oh come on man, that's an impossible task, because you're asking me to prove a hypothetical. I can say people like Joba Chamberlain, Brandon McCarthy, Jonathan Papelbon, all of whom started out in the pen and never caught on as starters, but I can't prove that putting them in the bullpen was the single thing that hurt them.

 

Putting him in the bullpen this season might win us a division this season, and it might not. Putting him in the bullpen this season might harm his career or it might not. I think the safest bet is to try to get him as many innings as possible.

[Dick Allen]

Oh come on man, that's an impossible task, because you're asking me to prove a hypothetical. I can say people like Joba Chamberlain, Brandon McCarthy, Jonathan Papelbon, all of whom started out in the pen and never caught on as starters, but I can't prove that putting them in the bullpen was the single thing that hurt them.

Exactly, which is why you cannot say that putting Sale in the bullpen will hurt him in the future as a starter. There is zero conclusive evidence its ever hurt anyone. He excelled in the bullpen last season. It was a small sample size and most of the games didn't matter, but the object is to win in 2011. It behoves the Sox to put Sale in the spot they think makes them the better team, not worry about his draft value, because pitching is pitching. It makes no sense that one year in the bullpen is going to cause anyone to fail as a starter. Most top of the line relievers were failed starters at some point. Another guy who went starter (although more of a spot starter), reliever, starter was Derek Lowe. He made a lot of money.

Edited January 9, 2011 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

Exactly, which is why you cannot say that putting Sale in the bullpen will hurt him in the future as a starter. He excelled in the bullpen last season. It was a small sample size and most of the games didn't matter, but the object is to win in 2011. It behoves the Sox to put Sale in the spot they think makes them the better team, not worry about his draft value, because pitching is pitching. It makes no sense that one year in the bullpen is going to cause anyone to fail as a starter. Most top of the line relievers were failed starters at some point. Another guy who went starter, reliever, starter was Derek Lowe. He made a lot of money.

It's not about his draft value as much as it is about his value to the Sox. His pitching value to the Sox is greatest if he can have 6+ seasons with the Sox with the maximum amount of successful innings. If you're cutting back on the number of innings...you have to get something back in return. This could be improved performance in the shorter number of innings, improved health, or perhaps a playoff run.

 

The equation is complicated though, especially if there is a chance that pitching fewer innings could also increase his chance of injury or reduce his chance of long-term success as a starter.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I echo j4l... the lack of power off the bench is bothersome... as is the pen. The pen more so than the lack of power of the bench. Too many question marks for my liking when sale is not in the pen, and even when he is, don't color me impressed. The pen shall be the weak link for the sox this season... but will they be bad enough to keep them out of the playoffs? Entirely possible scenario i believe.

 

For some time now the sox pitch their relievers just about as little as any team in the league. Quite simply we have had some sort of a nice luxury. During that time... we have generally had a pretty potent 1-2-3 at the back end... with talented arms sprinkled in to round out the pen. Now? The best arm the sox have is transitioning to closer. Will is matter to thornton mentally? Maybe... maybe not. Thornton got the ball to jenks in situations i am pretty certain the vast majority can't dream of doing on a consistent basis. Another luxury... one of which is assuredly gone. But then again i would take a stud set-up man over a stud closer any day... remember... the game would never get to the closer otherwise. What i mean by this is i would take an elite set-up man and have a slightly worse closer closing out my games... rather than vice versa. I have always believed the best arm in the pen, which is generally the closer, though not always, is utilized incorrectly. I'm not the only one which thinks this way, it's a way more common thought process than you would think.

 

Thornton... i'm pretty confident in... but you just never know how someone will react moving into the closers role.

Sale... he will be far and away will be the biggest asset in the pen... once he gets there that is. Without sale... the pen is downright bleak.

Santos... unless if something changes control wise... i think he is closer to the pitcher he was the last two months... rather than the first four. People undervalue just how valuable it is when a player has a limited, or in the case of santos, nearly no scouting report at all against.

Crain... no problem here... crain should do just about what he has always done.

Pena... which pena are we gonna get? If i were to make a wager, i wouldn't say he lives up to what he is capable of, though i just hope he sniffs it.

Ohman... he is what he is... a left handed specialist. If they can try and limit ohman to as few right handed hitters as possible.... we will have finally found someone other than thornton that can get lefties out on a consistent basis.

Infante... walking batters at the rate he does is not gonna cut it on a team that is contending... maybe on a bottom feeder sort of team they could throw him out there... but i want nothing to do with him. Infante does still have age on his side to get things figured out.

Carter... not major league caliber.

Spring training invites? Ick (many more times than not).

 

So currently i think we have a total of about three arms we potentially can rely on, and only two until sale gets in there, with a ton of crap shoot mixed in. Btw, i know people don't want to think about it/believe it... but sale will also go through rough patches... it all comes with time.

 

On the jones front... if jones had hit consistently, even a consistent .230, rather than disappear for months at a time, i think many more here would be looking to bring him back. Hopefully throughout the year someone with a little pop is brought in to help in that regard.

 

As far as a grade goes for the off-season... a b- seems fair enough (j4l)... though i would personally give them a b. If they would have brought someone in with power off the bench i would have bumped them to a b+. If they would have added the bench player, and another plus reliever, i would have then rated the off-season an a.

 

No reason to have low standards.. shoot for the stars... and be disappointed with any less.

 

I thought a B- was a solid grade myself. But anything less than an A+ around these parts and you're the Grinch that stole White Sox Christmas or something. I agree with everything you said in your post except the part about Crain. We need him to do what he did last year. Not what he's always done. Because what he's always done hasn't been real good.

 

[Balta1701]

I thought a B- was a solid grade myself. But anything less than an A+ around these parts and you're the Grinch that stole White Sox Christmas or something. I agree with everything you said in your post except the part about Crain. We need him to do what he did last year. Not what he's always done. Because what he's always done hasn't been real good.

Actually, what he's always done has been pretty good. Not very good...everyone has to note that 2009 season. It's been pretty good... every year that he's been healthy other than 2009 he's been very good.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Actually, what he's always done has been pretty good. Not very good...everyone has to note that 2009 season. It's been pretty good... every year that he's been healthy other than 2009 he's been very good.

 

He's had two really good years in his career in which he pitched a legitimate amount of innings. 2005 and last year. Now I didn't realize he pitched only 16.1 innings in 2007. So that's my bad. How bad was he hurt in 2009? He still appeared in 56 games. Either way he's been sporadic at best and is exactly the type of reliever you don't hand out 3-year deals to.

[Balta1701]

He's had two really good years in his career in which he pitched a legitimate amount of innings. 2005 and last year. Now I didn't realize he pitched only 16.1 innings in 2007. So that's my bad. How bad was he hurt in 2009? He still appeared in 56 games. Either way he's been sporadic at best and is exactly the type of reliever you don't hand out 3-year deals to.

His splits in 2009 are ridiculous. He had 3 months, June July and August, where he gave up OPS's of 1.084, 1.035, and .935, bracketed by april with an OPS of .458 against him, August and Sept. of .642 adn .462 against him.

 

Basically, he had a stretch where he was abjectly awful, bracketed by stretches where he was great. And that stretch in May where he was bad began with him missing time at the end of april/beginning of May with a shoulder injury of some sort. They sent him down to AAA in July, and he came back up and was right back to being lights-out.

[southsider2k5]

You know why Smoltz was able to do it? Because right after his first surgery, his doctor told him that it would be less tough on his arm to limit his innings, so they moved him to the bullpen. But then, a couple years later, they told him that things had reversed, and with the condition of his arm, warming up 60+ times a year would be more likely to re-injure it, so that's when he reverted back to starting.

 

Smoltz did it because he had to in order to follow doctor's advice.

 

Smoltz also had a couple thousand innings worth of conditioning on his arm at that time. Sale doesn't.

[Balta1701]

Smoltz also had a couple thousand innings worth of conditioning on his arm at that time. Sale doesn't.

Meh, I consider him to basically have had his arm "reset" after the surgery to some extent. No matter how many miles he had on his arm, he had to re-condition it almost from square one.

[Dick Allen]

His splits in 2009 are ridiculous. He had 3 months, June July and August, where he gave up OPS's of 1.084, 1.035, and .935, bracketed by april with an OPS of .458 against him, August and Sept. of .642 adn .462 against him.

 

Basically, he had a stretch where he was abjectly awful, bracketed by stretches where he was great. And that stretch in May where he was bad began with him missing time at the end of april/beginning of May with a shoulder injury of some sort. They sent him down to AAA in July, and he came back up and was right back to being lights-out.

His splits in 2010 are pretty similar, except June, July and August is when he shined, although June he sported a nice ERA but his WHIP was horrid. A lot of walks but they easily could be intentional. July and August, he made himself millions. Obviously, going month to month with relievers isn't an exact science as its only about 11 or 12 innings a month.

 

I was in Minneapolis in July and can tell you Twins fans held Crain in the exact same regard Linebrink was held around here. They expected bad things to happen when he entered the game. Maybe he's turned it around, or maybe he put together a pretty sweet salary drive.

Edited January 9, 2011 by Dick Allen

[Jordan4life_2007]

His splits in 2010 are pretty similar, except June, July and August is when he shined, although June he sported a nice ERA but his WHIP was horrid. A lot of walks but they easily could be intentional. July and August, he made himself millions. Obviously, going month to month with relievers isn't an exact science as its only about 11 or 12 innings a month.

 

I was in Minneapolis in July and can tell you Twins fans held Crain in the exact same regard Linebrink was held around here. They expected bad things to happen when he entered the game. Maybe he's turned it around, or maybe he put together a pretty sweet salary drive.

 

Bobby Jenks has been better than Jesse Crain by every conceivable measure for most of the last 4 years and we couldn't wait to get rid of him. I know there's the money aspect but still.

[qwerty]

If a 22 year old, which sale will be by the time the season starts, can't handle a little bouncing around between the rotation and the bullpen, well then i just don't think he is suited for the major leagues. Think about it, sale has very limited mileage on his arm. If anyone were able to do it, it seems like he would be capable. It's not the most uncommon thing to ease someone into the league this way. A perfect example (though in another league talent wise) would be johan santana. Seems like he did just fine to me. He is not the first, last, or only one to go this route. Also, it would be an entirely different scenario if people were suggesting to start him in the pen, and then flip him to the rotation. Going from starting to relieving... would likely be a welcomed relief (haiamsofunny) to sale... rather than the other way around. Going from the pen to the rotation on the drop of a hat... that's when things get worrisome more so.

 

If sale were to get injured, it would be because of how he throws the baseball, rather than the role he is throwing it in.

 

In regards to santos, regression to the norm is to be expected, and since i consider myself to be a realist, i'll go with logic on this one. Do i want that? Doubtful. I want him to do even better than last season. What you want in life, and what you get, are two different things entirely.

 

 

[Jordan4life_2007]

If a 22 year old, which sale will be by the time the season starts, can't handle a little bouncing around between the rotation and the bullpen, well then i just don't think he is suited for the major leagues. Think about it, sale has very limited mileage on his arm. If anyone were able to do it, it seems like he would be capable. It's not the most uncommon thing to ease someone into the league this way. A perfect example (though in another league talent wise) would be johan santana. Seems like he did just fine to me. He is not the first, last, or only one to go this route. Also, it would be an entirely different scenario if people were suggesting to start him in the pen, and then flip him to the rotation. Going from starting to relieving... would likely be a welcomed relief (haiamsofunny) to sale... rather than the other way around. Going from the pen to the rotation on the drop of a hat... that's when things get worrisome more so.

 

If sale were to get injured, it would be because of how he throws the baseball, rather than the role he is throwing it in.

 

In regards to santos, regression to the norm is to be expected, and since i consider myself to be a realist, i'll go with logic on this one. Do i want that? Doubtful. I want him to do even better than last season. What you want in life, and what you get, are two different things entirely.

 

I've said this about 4747634734 times in the last year or so, POST MORE! I need to learn to be like you or something. Now I could've typed everything you said word for word and I'm Osama Bin Laden [yes, slight exaggeration]. But let me stop whining now.

[southsider2k5]

If a 22 year old, which sale will be by the time the season starts, can't handle a little bouncing around between the rotation and the bullpen, well then i just don't think he is suited for the major leagues. Think about it, sale has very limited mileage on his arm. If anyone were able to do it, it seems like he would be capable. It's not the most uncommon thing to ease someone into the league this way. A perfect example (though in another league talent wise) would be johan santana. Seems like he did just fine to me. He is not the first, last, or only one to go this route. Also, it would be an entirely different scenario if people were suggesting to start him in the pen, and then flip him to the rotation. Going from starting to relieving... would likely be a welcomed relief (haiamsofunny) to sale... rather than the other way around. Going from the pen to the rotation on the drop of a hat... that's when things get worrisome more so.

 

If sale were to get injured, it would be because of how he throws the baseball, rather than the role he is throwing it in.

 

In regards to santos, regression to the norm is to be expected, and since i consider myself to be a realist, i'll go with logic on this one. Do i want that? Doubtful. I want him to do even better than last season. What you want in life, and what you get, are two different things entirely.

 

Santana might not be a bad comp for Sale. It took him years to get up to starting.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santajo02.shtml