Princess Dye Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 (edited) http://projectprospect.com/article/2010/05...scouting-report Maybe it's been posted before, but this article goes into detail (with video clips) about Sale's throwing motion. It closes with the statement that physically he may be best suited for relief due to what his mechanics flaw might do to him over a huge workload Anyone have thoughts on this? Edited January 9, 2011 by Princess Dye Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah, this has been discussed before. ptatc said it might not be as big of an issue as some of us think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elrockinMT Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What doth Don - the miracle man- Cooper think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sircaffey Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It's more concerning to me that he's 6-6, 175 lbs. He needs to get stronger. It'd be encouraging to see him at 190 before the season starts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 QUOTE (sircaffey @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 01:40 PM) It's more concerning to me that he's 6-6, 175 lbs. He needs to get stronger. It'd be encouraging to see him at 190 before the season starts. it's worth noting that he had a bout of food poisioning in the spring last year that cost him about 10 lbs at the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeynach Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Im fine with him as a long term reliever, if he turns out to be the next Matt Thornton that would still be one hell of a draft pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 QUOTE (joeynach @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 02:16 PM) Im fine with him as a long term reliever, if he turns out to be the next Matt Thornton that would still be one hell of a draft pick. Honestly...for a pick in the first half of the first round...that'd be at best an adequate pick, and somewhat disappointing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 01:18 PM) Honestly...for a pick in the first half of the first round...that'd be at best an adequate pick, and somewhat disappointing. quite disappointing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 All pitchers are ticking time bombs. JR used to have a rule, no more than 3 years for any pitcher. He was going to make an exception for Alex Fernandez, because of his near perfect mechanics. Alex signed a 5 year contract with Florida when he was 26. He pitched one full season with the Marlins, 2 partials and 2 years he was DL'd the entire season. The point is Sale's mechanics aren't ideal. Several teams passed on drafting him, and it probably had everything to do with his mechanics. Eventually, like most pitchers, he's probably going to hurt his arm somehow. The Sox should just put him in the situation they feel helps the team win the most games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowand44 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Who knows? I've been one worried about Sale just because I think the kid is so damn talented and I don't want him to have a career threatening injury real early in his career, so I'm just paranoid about it. That being said, people thought Lincecum was a sure thing to get injured right away as a starter as well and so far obviously nothing has come of that, you just never know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JorgeFabregas Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Have studies ever determined whether starters develop more injuries than relievers? I would think the strain of back-to-back days might be greater than the higher inning load/pitch count. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 QUOTE (JorgeFabregas @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 02:36 PM) Have studies ever determined whether starters develop more injuries than relievers? I would think the strain of back-to-back days might be greater than the higher inning load/pitch count. The problem is...how do you ask the question? If you ask...do starters get injured more per outing than relievers...the answer is yes...because starters have fewer outings. If you ask...do starters get injured more per inning than relievers, the answer is no, because starters pitch more innings. Beyond that...there's no real good answer. Some guys handle 1 type, some guys handle the other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3E8 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 (edited) QUOTE (joeynach @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 02:16 PM) Im fine with him as a long term reliever, if he turns out to be the next Matt Thornton that would still be one hell of a draft pick. QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 02:18 PM) Honestly...for a pick in the first half of the first round...that'd be at best an adequate pick, and somewhat disappointing. QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 02:20 PM) quite disappointing. Average career WAR for 13th pick in amateur draft from 1965-2000: 6. Percent of picks in that time frame which have had career WAR of 1 or less: 72%. Basically, 3 out of 4 times, the 13th pick has been worthless. I'm not saying Sale shouldn't attempt to convert to starter with the White Sox. But if he turned out to be Matt Thornton, one of the best LH relievers in baseball, for six years with us, the pick of Sale would be nothing but a great success. Edit: forgot link. http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?o...ype=junreg& Edited January 9, 2011 by 3E8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 (edited) Sale projects to be a 1.5 WAR reliever with how he pitched last year. It wouldn't be the end of the world if he ends up being that for most of his career. After all, how many first round picks in our team's history have actually panned out? I think that question can go for almost every team. Having Sale start does boost his value, but you're also risking injury at the same time. I don't think it hurts to have him take a smaller load early in his career until he gains some weight. Edited January 9, 2011 by chw42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 QUOTE (3E8 @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 01:42 PM) Average career WAR for 13th pick in amateur draft from 1965-2000: 6. Percent of picks in that time frame which have had career WAR of 1 or less: 72%. Basically, 3 out of 4 times, the 13th pick has been worthless. I'm not saying Sale shouldn't attempt to convert to starter with the White Sox. But if he turned out to be Matt Thornton, one of the best LH relievers in baseball, for six years with us, the pick of Sale would be nothing but a great success. Edit: forgot link. http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?o...ype=junreg& Exactly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Weren't Randy Johnson's mechanics supposed to be terrible? Didn't Prior have flawless mechanics? It's all a crapshoot really, I trust ptatc though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 01:43 PM) Weren't Randy Johnson's mechanics supposed to be terrible? Didn't Prior have flawless mechanics? It's all a crapshoot really, I trust ptatc though. Randy Johnson didn't really have bad mechanics. Prior's always had bad mechanics. ESPN and everybody else just listened to Prior's USC pitching coach, who is more or less wrong. Just look at what happened with Anthony Reyes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 QUOTE (chw42 @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 01:43 PM) Sale projects to be a 1.5 WAR reliever with how he pitched last year. It wouldn't be the end of the world if he ends up being that for most of his career. After all, how many first round picks in our team's history have actually panned out? I think that question can go for almost every team. Having Sale start does boost his value, but you're also risking injury at the same time. I don't think it hurts to have him take a smaller load early in his career until he gains some weight. What kinda excuse is that? Because most of our first round picks have sucked that it would be OK if Sale turned into a great set-up man or closer? We may as well just forfeit all of our first-round picks from here on out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 02:03 PM) What kinda excuse is that? Because most of our first round picks have sucked that it would be OK if Sale turned into a great set-up man or closer? We may as well just forfeit all of our first-round picks from here on out. Look at what 3E8 posted. It's not just us, but it's been more of the case with this team since Kenny took over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 (edited) QUOTE (chw42 @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 02:19 PM) Look at what 3E8 posted. It's not just us, but it's been more of the case with this team since Kenny took over. That's just a loser attitude [not saying you or 3E8 is a loser, obviously]. I don't care about the stats or the history of other teams' first round picks in this case. I'll never except the notion that because just about all of our first round picks have sucked the last decade that it would be acceptable if Sale turned into nothing more than a dominant reliever. Look all around baseball. There's a lot more efficient ways to acquire dominant relievers or closers than to invest pre-mid first round picks on them. I'd rather take a high upside guy at 13 that totally flops than a guy who's destined to be a reliever. Edited January 9, 2011 by Jordan4life Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 (edited) QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 02:27 PM) That's just a loser attitude [not saying you're a loser, obviously]. I'll never except the notion that because just about all of our first round picks have sucked the last decade that it would be acceptable if Sale turned into nothing more than a dominant reliever. Look all around baseball. There's a lot more efficient ways to acquire dominant relievers or closers than to invest pre-mid first round picks on them. You've seen how all these lengthy contracts are given out to relievers this year. A good reliever usually ends up producing less value than what he is paid on the open market. It wouldn't be the worst idea to groom relievers from the draft. Now granted, they probably shouldn't be the 14th pick in any draft, but it's not the end of the world if you get 1.5 WAR a year from that pick for 6 years and pay him somewhere around $25 million throughout those years. Now of course, I would want Sale to be a starter since that maximizes his value and that is the ultimate point. However, you also have to consider his physical condition. I think the case with Sale is a little different than with other guys like Papelbon or Chamberlain. Those guys were physically ready to handle 200 innings. Chris Sale looks like he has anorexia. It wouldn't hurt to ease him into the Majors. He pitched 23 innings last year. I bet those 23 innings took more of a toll on him than any other 23 innings he's pitched in his career. ML innings put extra stress on the arm, just look at what happened to Strasburg. He pitched for years without arm problems, but couldn't handle 75 innings in the Majors before getting hurt. I'm kind of in between. I wouldn't mind it if he started and I wouldn't mind it if he relieved. However, I think the latter option is the safer route in the long run and it also does stabilize the bullpen a lot more in the short term. Edited January 9, 2011 by chw42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 QUOTE (chw42 @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 02:36 PM) You've seen how all these lengthy contracts are given out to relievers this year. A good reliever usually ends up producing less value than what he is paid on the open market. It wouldn't be the worst idea to groom relievers from the draft. Now granted, they probably shouldn't be the 14th pick in any draft, but it's not the end of the world if you get 1.5 WAR a year from that pick for 6 years and pay him somewhere around $25 million throughout those years. Now of course, I would want Sale to be a starter since that maximizes his value and that is the ultimate point. However, you also have to consider his physical condition. I think the case with Sale is a little different than with other guys like Papelbon or Chamberlain. Those guys were physically ready to handle 200 innings. Chris Sale looks like he has anorexia. It wouldn't hurt to ease him into the Majors. He pitched 23 innings last year. I bet those 23 innings took more of a toll on him than any other 23 innings he's pitched in his career. ML innings put extra stress on the arm, just look at what happened to Strasburg. He pitched for years without arm problems, but couldn't handle 75 innings in the Majors before getting hurt. I'm kind of in between. I wouldn't mind it if he started and I wouldn't mind it if he relieved. However, I think the latter option is the safer route in the long run and it also does stabilize the bullpen a lot more in the short term. I'm not questioning the value of a good or dominant reliever. You obviously need them to win. But for any organization, especially a talent-starved organization such as ours, you don't invest pre-mid first round picks on them. There were questions about Sale's frame, durability and violent delivery well before the draft. I would've passed if I wasn't 100 percent or close to 100 percent sure he could cut it as a starter. It's funny. The one year we should've probably played it safe after years of failures of playing it safe is the year we actually appear to be going high upside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 QUOTE (JorgeFabregas @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 01:36 PM) Have studies ever determined whether starters develop more injuries than relievers? I would think the strain of back-to-back days might be greater than the higher inning load/pitch count. There haven't been any that I know of. Injuries can be loosely grouped into two categories, static tissues such as ligaments and cartilage and active tissues such as muscles and the rotator cuff. From my experience starters have more trouble with the static structures and being generally loose. This is due to the increased in pitches thrown. Relievers have more difficulties with muscle type injuries because they aren't in a routine for coming into the game. They may warm up 3-4 times and not get in the game. Freddy Garcia is an example of a pitcher who really can't come out of the pen due to the difficulty with getting warm. In Sale's case his mechanics aren't ideal from my perspective. But they aren't as bad as some. His mechanics are similar to Randy Johnson's. He brings his elbow up first in the early cocking phase so his arm is pointing down for a long time due to the length of the arm. He brings his hand up late so he cannot get his hand up over his head. Thus he throws from a lower arm slot. Like Johnson this will improve movement on the slider but could lead to elbow problems. Some pitchers can handle the mechanics without difficult other can't. No one really knows why. I imagine the Sox will just let him go, watch him closely and see if he starts to have problems. The only pitchers you really try to alter their mechanics before they have injuries are the ones with inconsistent mechanics or ones who ones who walk alot of hitters due to poor mechanics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranger Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 02:27 PM) That's just a loser attitude [not saying you or 3E8 is a loser, obviously]. I don't care about the stats or the history of other teams' first round picks in this case. I'll never except the notion that because just about all of our first round picks have sucked the last decade that it would be acceptable if Sale turned into nothing more than a dominant reliever. Look all around baseball. There's a lot more efficient ways to acquire dominant relievers or closers than to invest pre-mid first round picks on them. I'd rather take a high upside guy at 13 that totally flops than a guy who's destined to be a reliever. Not if he turns out to be a really, really good reliever or closer. Good relievers aren't as easy to come by as you're making it sound. They're actually quite the opposite. 3E8's post is not a "loser attitude", it's a realistic attitude. No team goes into the draft throwing darts because they're conceding that they're first pick will probably stink. But that doesn't mean they are unaware of the fact that it's probable the player won't pan out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranger Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 12:09 PM) http://projectprospect.com/article/2010/05...scouting-report Maybe it's been posted before, but this article goes into detail (with video clips) about Sale's throwing motion. It closes with the statement that physically he may be best suited for relief due to what his mechanics flaw might do to him over a huge workload Anyone have thoughts on this? This, too, concerns me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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