Congrats Sox Management

[Balta1701]

Right. And moving to the AL and becoming a DH, he'll get the automatic negative positional adjustment which will not allow him the chance to benefit from a very questionable UZR.

 

Dunn's bat has been worth 4 wins exactly once. Two out of the past four years, his bat has not been worth three wins.

How often does fangraphs adjust their positional adjustments? I ask because I wonder if they're not still calibrated to the steroids era DH.

 

Last year, the average AL DH had a .757 OPS (and the NL was obviously lower). Last year, the average NL 1b had an .812 OPS. The AL's was lower (no Pujols), but still 30 points higher than the average AL DH.

[3E8]

How often does fangraphs adjust their positional adjustments? I ask because I wonder if they're not still calibrated to the steroids era DH.

 

Last year, the average AL DH had a .757 OPS (and the NL was obviously lower). Last year, the average NL 1b had an .812 OPS. The AL's was lower (no Pujols), but still 30 points higher than the average AL DH.

Positional adjustments do not take offense statistics into account, only defense. The adjustments were arrived at after the SABR community analyzed loads of stats on players who had played multiple positions. This gave them an idea on exactly how difficult each position was to play in relation to another. Example, because catcher is such a difficult position to play, guys who can fit there have an inherent value which other players do not provide. So they get over a 10 run bump (for a full season) in positional adjustment. Because DH requires zero defensive ability, the positional adjustment takes nearly 20 runs away from them.

[chw42]

Positional adjustments do not take offense statistics into account, only defense. The adjustments were arrived at after the SABR community analyzed loads of stats on players who had played multiple positions. This gave them an idea on exactly how difficult each position was to play in relation to another. Example, because catcher is such a difficult position to play, guys who can fit there have an inherent value which other players do not provide. So they get over a 10 run bump (for a full season) in positional adjustment. Because DH requires zero defensive ability, the positional adjustment takes nearly 20 runs away from them.

 

I think 3.5 WAR is a good estimate for Dunn.

 

Say Dunn gets 660 PAs at DH and puts up a .385 wOBA, both are near his career average.

 

Here's how that breaks down for the components of WAR using a league average wOBA of .325 and assuming the league average runs/game is 4.5.

Batting - 27.8

Fielding - 0

Replacement - 22

Positional - (-16.6)

RAR - 33.2

Runs/Win - (4.5 + 2) * 1.5 = 9.75

WAR - 3.41

[3E8]

I'm okay with the wOBA of .385. But I think if you're using a figure higher than James' prediction, it might be considered optimistic.

 

And the batting runs in your calculation seem low considering your assumptions. What is your wOBA scale?

[chw42]

I'm okay with the wOBA of .385. But I think if you're using a figure higher than James' prediction, it might be considered optimistic.

 

And the batting runs in your calculation seem low considering your assumptions. What is your wOBA scale?

 

1.21. That's the 5 year average with more being weighted towards the recent years. The 3 year average is 1.23, but the average wOBA is .324 and wOBA has much, much more impact on the batting runs than the scale does.

 

.385 is his career average. He is 32 and he might be in some decline, but he's moving from a mediocre hitter's park to a great hitter's park.

 

What's interesting is that if you take his wOBA down to .380, his WAR is around 3.1-3.2.

Edited January 12, 2011 by chw42

[3E8]

Then batting runs = ((.385-.325)/1.21)*660 = 32.7. But you have 5 less runs.

[greg775]

One of the goals of the off season is getting people excited about the team. Mission accomplished

 

/awaits the rain on the parade folks

 

I agree with you 100 percent. Nice observation. The Sox should be able to sell a lot of tickets cause of what you astutely pointed out.

 

To make this offseason perfect for me, personally, however, it would be replacing Juan Pierre with anybody else.

But I do admit I like the way Juan approaches the game. I just don't like what he brings to the table, much at all.

[spiderman]

One of the goals of the off season is getting people excited about the team. Mission accomplished

 

/awaits the rain on the parade folks

 

Do we know how season tickets packages are going?

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Do we know how season tickets packages are going?

Not sure, but the Crain and Ohman signings can't be a bad sign at all. We seem to keep finding more change under the couch cushions.

[chw42]

Then batting runs = ((.385-.325)/1.21)*660 = 32.7. But you have 5 less runs.

 

Park adjustment. I'm using an adjusted wOBA.

 

Adjusted wOBA = .385 * sqrt(100/((105 + 100)/2)) = .380

 

Where 105 is the Cell's park factor. I added 100 and divided by 2 so that it would have the Cell's effect halved on the actual numbers.

 

I'm not exactly sure how FanGraphs does park adjustments, but I imagine it's close to what I have up there.

 

Edit: I see what I missed. I forgot to square root part in the application I wrote. Now that I put that back in there, it has Dunn at around 30 runs.

 

So he's definitely worth 3.5 wins.

Edited January 12, 2011 by chw42