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Big Jim back with Twinx


Steve9347

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 14, 2011 -> 11:37 AM)
Confirmed? By whom?

 

And what does that have to do with this thread?

 

I think he's trying to say Sale will be useful against all the Twins left handed batters late in games in the bullpen.

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As of yesterday, before the Thome signing, the combined projections I calculated (CAIRO, Bill James, Fan Projections) had the Twins at 90.1 wins. They had the Sox at 90.7.

 

I think this move probably puts the Twins ahead in terms of projected wins based on WAR.

 

Thome was worth 3.6 wins last year. I really doubt he does that again, but still, I think he'll be good for at least 1.5.

Edited by chw42
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QUOTE (chw42 @ Jan 14, 2011 -> 12:41 PM)
As for yesterday, before the Thome signing, the combined projections I calculated (CAIRO, Bill James, Fan Projections) had the Twins at 90.1 wins. They had the Sox at 90.7.

 

I think this move probably puts the Twins ahead in terms of projected wins based on WAR.

 

Thome was worth 3.6 wins last year. I really doubt he does that again, but still, I think he'll be good for at least 1.5.

Jeesh. Part of the reason I am not super in love with Dunn is because I know we could still have Thome for not just a fraction of the price, but a freaking sliver of the price.

 

Obviously at this age, the odds of Thome staying healthy decrease with every PA, but still, it frightens me a bit that everyone is so excited about the Dunn signing, but many of those same people were so unsatisfied by Thome's last few years here.

 

Imagining what we could be doing with this payroll had we not traded for Peavy and just kept Thome on board two years ago makes me slightly queasy.

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QUOTE (chw42 @ Jan 14, 2011 -> 12:41 PM)
As of yesterday, before the Thome signing, the combined projections I calculated (CAIRO, Bill James, Fan Projections) had the Twins at 90.1 wins. They had the Sox at 90.7.

 

I think this move probably puts the Twins ahead in terms of projected wins based on WAR.

 

Thome was worth 3.6 wins last year. I really doubt he does that again, but still, I think he'll be good for at least 1.5.

Out of curiosity, how many wins did you calculate between Mauer/Morneau?

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 14, 2011 -> 11:35 AM)
Eh, its really hard to believe he'd have another year like last year. Possible, but unlikely at his age.

 

Nobody saw it last year. If used correctly, I can definitely see it. Some guys are just born to hit. Julio Franco was sporting .800ish OPS's at age 44/45. If they can keep Jim's PAs around 350-375, I can see him having a fine year.

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 14, 2011 -> 11:44 AM)
Jeesh. Part of the reason I am not super in love with Dunn is because I know we could still have Thome for not just a fraction of the price, but a freaking sliver of the price.

 

Obviously at this age, the odds of Thome staying healthy decrease with every PA, but still, it frightens me a bit that everyone is so excited about the Dunn signing, but many of those same people were so unsatisfied by Thome's last few years here.

 

Imagining what we could be doing with this payroll had we not traded for Peavy and just kept Thome on board two years ago makes me slightly queasy.

I find it hard to believe, that at age 40/41 this season and with his back issues, that he will be both healthy all season playing full time AND be able to put up similar numbers to typical Dunn, in 2011. Possible, yes, but highly unlikely.

 

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QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 14, 2011 -> 11:56 AM)
Nobody saw it last year. If used correctly, I can definitely see it. Some guys are just born to hit. Julio Franco was sporting .800ish OPS's at age 44/45. If they can keep Jim's PAs around 350-375, I can see him having a fine year.

The 300 PA is key here - Thome would then be a part time player. Dunn was not signed as a part time player, which is why you really can't compare the two this way.

 

And Franco was an absolute freak of nature. How many hitters in the modern era have been able to put up better than average offensive numbers playing full time from age 40 up?

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 14, 2011 -> 12:59 PM)
And Franco was an absolute freak of nature. How many hitters in the modern era have been able to put up better than average offensive numbers playing full time from age 40 up?

Well...do you add the "Clean" player caveat?

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 14, 2011 -> 11:44 AM)
Jeesh. Part of the reason I am not super in love with Dunn is because I know we could still have Thome for not just a fraction of the price, but a freaking sliver of the price.

 

Obviously at this age, the odds of Thome staying healthy decrease with every PA, but still, it frightens me a bit that everyone is so excited about the Dunn signing, but many of those same people were so unsatisfied by Thome's last few years here.

 

Imagining what we could be doing with this payroll had we not traded for Peavy and just kept Thome on board two years ago makes me slightly queasy.

 

What the hell? You said the other day I was going 'overkill' or whatever because of me criticizing the Crain/Ohman signings yet you don't love the Dunn signing? The guy has averaged 40 HR/101 RBI the last 7 years with a slash line of .253/.381/.533/.914 over that same period. He's only 30 and you'd rather have Thome?

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QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 14, 2011 -> 11:56 AM)
Nobody saw it last year. If used correctly, I can definitely see it. Some guys are just born to hit. Julio Franco was sporting .800ish OPS's at age 44/45. If they can keep Jim's PAs around 350-375, I can see him having a fine year.

I know I have been saying it and so have a few others too. Thome's skill set is not one that decreases rapidly with age. He's not going to lose sight of what is a strike and what is a ball as he gets older. He's not going to lose all that strength until he is well past any age where he could continue playing baseball. The only skill that he could lose would be his bat speed, but has and will continue to learn how to compensate for that by cheating on pitches. That will cause his strikeouts to increase marginally, and his BA to decrease marginally, but he's still going to hit a lot of home runs and post a very, very solid OBP.

 

The true risk with him is and always will be his health, but if you limit his PAs, like you mentioned, you can help him stay healthy. He also is known to have a tremendous work ethic, so you know he is going to work his ass off to stay in game shape.

 

I'm certainly not going to argue that he is going to be the player Adam Dunn will be over the next 1 or 2 years, but he can certainly be 75% of the player for about 20% of the price.

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 14, 2011 -> 11:59 AM)
The 300 PA is key here - Thome would then be a part time player. Dunn was not signed as a part time player, which is why you really can't compare the two this way.

 

And Franco was an absolute freak of nature. How many hitters in the modern era have been able to put up better than average offensive numbers playing full time from age 40 up?

 

I wasn't comparing Thome and Dunn at all. See my last response to Shack.

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QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 14, 2011 -> 12:01 PM)
What the hell? You said the other day I was going 'overkill' or whatever because of me criticizing the Crain/Ohman signings yet you don't love the Dunn signing? The guy has averaged 40 HR/101 RBI the last 7 years with a slash line of .253/.381/.533/.914 over that same period. He's only 30 and you'd rather have Thome?

Now come on, that's not what I just posted, J4L.

 

And secondly, go back and read the threads from the Dunn signing and the Konerko signing. At no point did I express any jubilation with either of those acquisitions.

 

I've maintained that this has been a solid offseason for us, but I have certainly not been one of the people who has been absolutely stoked about it or anything. I have even been questioned a few times because I have not been particularly overjoyed by their offseason, including by yourself.

 

That doesn't mean I hate the offseason they've had either. It just means I would have liked to see them go about things a different way. Of all the players they have signed this offseason, I think Crain is the only one I would have chosen to go after had the choice been mine.

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QUOTE (3E8 @ Jan 14, 2011 -> 11:56 AM)
Out of curiosity, how many wins did you calculate between Mauer/Morneau?

 

6.2 for Mauer, 4.4 for Morneau.

 

I just ran Thome through. The projections like him for a lot of PAs. Thing is, I don't think he's gonna get more PAs than he did last year.

 

So I have him at 328 PAs, 87 games with a .369 wOBA. The wOBA number I did not come up with, that's the average between the three projection systems I have at my disposal.

 

So the combined projection systems have Thome at 1.5 wins. That puts the Twins' position players at 26.8 WAR. Pitchers at 16.4. They're at 43.1 right now, the Sox are at 42.7. I haven't ran the Tigers through yet, but I doubt it's higher than the Sox and Twins.

Edited by chw42
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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 14, 2011 -> 12:04 PM)
Yeah, that was more shack I was responding too about comparing the two, which you then responded to.

It's a matter of the law of diminishing returns though. I think signing Thome would have been a great calculated risk, given his history, especially in the DH role.

 

I then would have gone after Derrick Lee instead of PK, and Adrian Beltre.

 

Basically, Beltre/Lee/Thome rather than Dunn/Konerko.

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 14, 2011 -> 12:08 PM)
It's a matter of the law of diminishing returns though. I think signing Thome would have been a great calculated risk, given his history, especially in the DH role.

 

I then would have gone after Derrick Lee instead of PK, and Adrian Beltre.

 

Basically, Beltre/Lee/Thome rather than Dunn/Konerko.

 

I'm a huge Beltre fan and not even I would want to commit those kinda years/dollars. I can agree with you about Lee over PK. But there is just NO downside/risk, IMO, to the Dunn signing. Without him our off-season is a D minus instead of a B minus, IMO.

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QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 14, 2011 -> 12:16 PM)
I'm a huge Beltre fan and not even I would want to commit those kinda years/dollars. I can agree with you about Lee over PK. But there is just NO downside/risk, IMO, to the Dunn signing. Without him our off-season is a D minus instead of a B minus, IMO.

Well, without being privy to what the true situation is regarding any attempt to sign a Boras client long-term, I can concede that I am not sure what the possibilities might have been. But I think had we offered 5/$78 or so two months ago, it might have gotten done.

 

I agree the signing of Dunn will probably not hurt us in terms of production versus pay, but that doesn't mean it was the best signing to make with our money.

 

The way I see it, you're not looking to make signings that simply don't harm you financially, but you're looking to maximize your dollars committed versus the production you receive based on what is available on the marketplace.

 

I guess if it were my money, I would be willing to take the risk of allocating a total of $27ish million per year this season to Beltre/Lee/Thome, with the the remaining commitment in years and dollars to Beltre over the next 4 years after that, given the current makeup of our roster, especially considering ages and contract commitments, than the $27 million per year over the next two years we have committed to Konerko and Dunn, and the remaining dollars committed in the years following that to Dunn and Konerko.

Edited by iamshack
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