Big Jim back with Twinx

[joeynach]

As of yesterday, before the Thome signing, the combined projections I calculated (CAIRO, Bill James, Fan Projections) had the Twins at 90.1 wins. They had the Sox at 90.7.

 

I think this move probably puts the Twins ahead in terms of projected wins based on WAR.

 

Thome was worth 3.6 wins last year. I really doubt he does that again, but still, I think he'll be good for at least 1.5.

 

How will he get anything close to that in terms of playing time. Thome really took off in the 2nd half last year when Morneau went down with that concussion. That opened up a spot for Thome to play everyday. He even said it himself that the ability to go from a bench player in the first half to an everyday player in the second half really helped him fresh and at the top of his game. That wont happen this year unless someone else goes down for the entire 2nd half again. Look at what Thome did last year in the same at-bats when he went from a fill in role to more consistent role.

 

Pre All Star: (145 AB) .255/.377/.552/.929 10HR/39RBI

Post All Star: (131 AB) .313/.448/.710/1.158 15HR/30RBI

Edited January 14, 2011 by joeynach

[Rooftop Shots]

Kind of thought that they would sign him again. Not only because he possibly could be another left handed bat threat in th lineup,

but you also have to wonder how much revenue will get pulled in when he hits # 600. Of course, not even a smidgen of his salary, but enough to jam more in the stands (even standing room only)and sell a ton of memorabilia. baseballs, posters, framed/autographed prints of "the shot!"

They might even have something to sell with pictures of him and Killebrew together....who knows?? "The Past" and "The Blast"!

Either way, it's going to help the Twins in some aspects of his salary.

[iamshack]

How will he get anything close to that in terms of playing time. Thome really took off in the 2nd half last year when Morneau went down with that concussion. That opened up a spot for Thome to play everyday. He even said it himself that the ability to go from a bench player in the first half to an everyday player in the second half really helped him fresh and at the top of his game. That wont happen this year unless someone else goes down for the entire 2nd half again. Look at what Thome did last year in the same at-bats when he went from a fill in role to more consistent role.

 

Pre All Star: (145 AB) .255/.377/.552/.929 10HR/39RBI

Post All Star: (131 AB) .313/.448/.710/1.158 15HR/30RBI

Oh, that terrible .929 OPS!

 

Anything beyond .860 or so I would be very happy with.

[MexSoxFan#1]

Naw, he really meant 'magic' as in 'Magic' Johnson.

 

 

lol

[bobryansson]

As a human being, Jim's a great guy and I wish him the best. As a Twin, every one of their wins is bad for the Sox. I hope he fails completely. I was horrified when he launched that rocket off of Thornton. To be even remotely pleased with it... Well, I just don't get it.

[Balta1701]

How will he get anything close to that in terms of playing time. Thome really took off in the 2nd half last year when Morneau went down with that concussion. That opened up a spot for Thome to play everyday. He even said it himself that the ability to go from a bench player in the first half to an everyday player in the second half really helped him fresh and at the top of his game. That wont happen this year unless someone else goes down for the entire 2nd half again. Look at what Thome did last year in the same at-bats when he went from a fill in role to more consistent role.

 

Pre All Star: (145 AB) .255/.377/.552/.929 10HR/39RBI

Post All Star: (131 AB) .313/.448/.710/1.158 15HR/30RBI

Here's the thing though...there's what, 5 different guys that Thome can sub for, since they can move Cuddyer around? Delmon Young, Cuddyer, Kubel, Mauer, Morneau?

[witesoxfan]

It wouldn't be $3M though - it would be $3M plus whatever you paid for the other side of the platoon. Who could you get for similar money for the other side that you think would produce similarly?

 

Andruw Jones would have been fantastic. He's still on the market and as a RH platoon mate and a great backup outfielder, he would have easily been worth $4 mill which is approximately what it would have cost had they signed him initially that early.

 

Shack's argument doesn't go without merit. There were a lot of ways the Sox could have gone - frankly, bringing in Thome, Jones, and (Derrek) Lee would have been cheaper, less of a commitment, and could yield similar or better results - but I think for the long-term, this was the move they needed to make. If you don't sign Dunn this offseason, he could have easily ended up in Texas for a similar length (and price too), and then come next offseason when the Sox are faced with this situation again, can you really depend on a 41 year old DH to fill that same void? You can surely count on a 32 year old Adam Dunn to produce that.

 

Konerko I'm not as keen on after the honeymoon effect of the signing has worn off, but I think he will be worth the $30.5 mill the Sox are paying him during his time here. The additional $7 mill is a big fat "meh" but it is what it is.

[iamshack]

Andruw Jones would have been fantastic. He's still on the market and as a RH platoon mate and a great backup outfielder, he would have easily been worth $4 mill which is approximately what it would have cost had they signed him initially that early.

 

Shack's argument doesn't go without merit. There were a lot of ways the Sox could have gone - frankly, bringing in Thome, Jones, and (Derrek) Lee would have been cheaper, less of a commitment, and could yield similar or better results - but I think for the long-term, this was the move they needed to make. If you don't sign Dunn this offseason, he could have easily ended up in Texas for a similar length (and price too), and then come next offseason when the Sox are faced with this situation again, can you really depend on a 41 year old DH to fill that same void? You can surely count on a 32 year old Adam Dunn to produce that.

 

Konerko I'm not as keen on after the honeymoon effect of the signing has worn off, but I think he will be worth the $30.5 mill the Sox are paying him during his time here. The additional $7 mill is a big fat "meh" but it is what it is.

I just think considering the age of the roster and the contract situations of some of our pitching staff, should we not win this year or next year, we could reach a point wherein it is most prudent to rebuild and take the route they considered this offseason, but ultimately decided not to take. And at that point, having Adam Dunn around really isn't going to help us.

 

I would, however, have been willing to take the risk in committing to Beltre because I feel adding him, as well as Lee and Thome would have given us a better team on the field for the next two years than the Dunn/Konerko combo will.

[Balta1701]

I just think considering the age of the roster and the contract situations of some of our pitching staff, should we not win this year or next year, we could reach a point wherein it is most prudent to rebuild and take the route they considered this offseason, but ultimately decided not to take. And at that point, having Adam Dunn around really isn't going to help us.

 

I would, however, have been willing to take the risk in committing to Beltre because I feel adding him, as well as Lee and Thome would have given us a better team on the field for the next two years than the Dunn/Konerko combo will.

Given the total money commitments, and the fact that 3b is the one position on the diamond where we're actually kind of deep with youth, I gotta disagree. I think both this year and for the next 2, we're better off with Dunn/Konerko/Morel than we would be with Lee/Thome/Beltre.

 

Lee/Thome/Beltre is sort of the worst of the scenarios that you just outlined. It might work well for one season, but the odds of it continuing to work for 2 are pretty poor given Lee and Thome's health status and ages. Topping that off...to get Beltre, you're committing to him with long-term money, so that whole "mandatory rebuilding" part you're talking about would need to take place but it would happen with a much longer deal on the books.

[Chicago White Sox]

I just think considering the age of the roster and the contract situations of some of our pitching staff, should we not win this year or next year, we could reach a point wherein it is most prudent to rebuild and take the route they considered this offseason, but ultimately decided not to take. And at that point, having Adam Dunn around really isn't going to help us.

 

I would, however, have been willing to take the risk in committing to Beltre because I feel adding him, as well as Lee and Thome would have given us a better team on the field for the next two years than the Dunn/Konerko combo will.

If we fail to win in the next year or two, why can't we trade Dunn at that point? Wouldn't that only help the rebuilding process?

[iamshack]

Given the total money commitments, and the fact that 3b is the one position on the diamond where we're actually kind of deep with youth, I gotta disagree. I think both this year and for the next 2, we're better off with Dunn/Konerko/Morel than we would be with Lee/Thome/Beltre.

 

Lee/Thome/Beltre is sort of the worst of the scenarios that you just outlined. It might work well for one season, but the odds of it continuing to work for 2 are pretty poor given Lee and Thome's health status and ages. Topping that off...to get Beltre, you're committing to him with long-term money, so that whole "mandatory rebuilding" part you're talking about would need to take place but it would happen with a much longer deal on the books.

Ok, I'm not certain when I said there was a mandatory rebuilding.

 

Secondly, I explained why I would accept committing long-term to Beltre versus Dunn.

 

Thirdly, in the example of the signing I described, his deal would be one year longer than Dunn's and $22 million over the course of 5 years more than Dunn's. While that certainly is more money, it isn't some backbreaking figure that is going to prevent the team from being able to change organizational directions. Worst case, you're going to be trading Beltre in the middle of the contract just as you would be trading Dunn.

 

Fourth, we don't know that we are deep at third base at all. We have Omar Vizquel who is older than Thome and some young kids who we think can play in the Big Leagues. It's not like we are blocking Mike Schmidt to sign Beltre.

 

Fifth, I dislike this continued theory of "Thome" is old, he can't possibly do this again argument. Show me something, other than the fact that he gets older every year, that points to this huge dropoff in his production, assuming that fact that he is a player who you won't give everyday PA's to. And Derrick Lee is 35, the same age PK will be when the season begins.

[Balta1701]

Fifth, I dislike this continued theory of "Thome" is old, he can't possibly do this again argument. Show me something, other than the fact that he gets older every year, that points to this huge dropoff in his production, assuming that fact that he is a player who you won't give everyday PA's to. And Derrick Lee is 35, the same age PK will be when the season begins.

The best argument I can give is that no one has ever done waht he did last year.

Through the mysterious powers of Baseball-Reference.com, I made a list of all the players since World War II who were 38, 39, or 40 and finished their seasons with between 300 and 400 plate appearances.

 

There are 76 player-seasons on the list. A few players -- notably, Moises Alou -- shows up more than once. There are two problems with using the list as some sort of forecasting tool. The biggest problem, I'll tell you about in a moment. The second-biggest problem is that most of the players on the list weren't big-time sluggers.

 

So I winnowed down the list a little. Actually, I winnowed down the list a lot. Thome's isolated power -- slugging percentage minus batting average -- last season was .344.

 

That's a lot.

 

I cut the list down to just the players with isolated powers of .200 or better.

 

That left only nine hitters, including Thome.

 

The most interesting thing about the list is the high quality of the players on it: Thome, Cal Ripken, Ron Cey, Moises Alou, Larry Walker, Hank Aaron, Stan Musial, Ruben Sierra, and Andre Dawson (granted, Sierra and Dawson didn't actually have good seasons).

 

But the second most interesting thing about this list -- and the biggest problem with using any of this stuff to guess what Thome will do in 2012 -- is that our subject simply blows everyone else away. After his .344 isolated power, No. 2 is Cal Ripken's .244. After Thome's 178 OPS+, No. is also Ripken, at 143.

 

Essentially, Thome last season had the best hitting season for any part-time player since World War II. And by a lot, so comparing him to his peers really doesn't seem all that useful because he doesn't really have any peers.

 

All I'm willing to say is that Thome won't be anywhere near as good this year as he was last year, but that he will be good, and well worth whatever the Twins are paying him.

[iamshack]

The best argument I can give is that no one has ever done waht he did last year.

Again, I'm not arguing that he will put up those same numbers and I'm not arguing that he will be Adam Dunn.

 

I'm saying it's a calculated risk I would take, given his worth ethic, his past history, and the money required to sign him versus Dunn.

 

And he is a HoF player. Doing things that no one has ever done before is what makes them HoF players.

[Chicago White Sox]

Again, I'm not arguing that he will put up those same numbers and I'm not arguing that he will be Adam Dunn.

 

I'm saying it's a calculated risk I would take, given his worth ethic, his past history, and the money required to sign him versus Dunn.

 

And he is a HoF player. Doing things that no one has ever done before is what makes them HoF players.

But Balta brought up a good point. Even if Thome does a great job next year, you'll still have a hole at DH and huge need for left-handed pop the following season. That's a need we can't fill from within anytime soon, which means back to free agency or the trade market. Are you really going to find a better short-term and long-term option than Dunn next year? I don't think so, at least not at the years and salary we signed him at.

[Balta1701]

But Balta brought up a good point. Even if Thome does a great job next year, you'll still have a hole at DH and huge need for left-handed pop the following season. That's a need we can't fill from within anytime soon, which means back to free agency or the trade market. Are you really going to find a better short-term and long-term option than Dunn next year? I don't think so, at least not at the years and salary we signed him at.

At least to me, that's why I said that it translates to a rapid rebuilding period.

 

Shack's whole idea there is based on the premise that both Lee and Thome will be 1 year bargains and Beltre will not under-perform. If all of those are true, then yes, for next year, Lee/Thome/Beltre would outperform Dunn/Konerko/Morel.

 

However, as you note here, even if that happens...in 2012, we're still paying Beltre $18 million a season, but we're back to having 2 other holes. Viciedo could possibly be ready to fill a 1b hole there, but the reality is that the team would have itself locked into a long-term contract at 3b while being right back where it was this offseason on the other 2 positions. THat's why I called it another plausible rebuilding process starting next offseason.

[iamshack]

At least to me, that's why I said that it translates to a rapid rebuilding period.

 

Shack's whole idea there is based on the premise that both Lee and Thome will be 1 year bargains and Beltre will not under-perform. If all of those are true, then yes, for next year, Lee/Thome/Beltre would outperform Dunn/Konerko/Morel.

 

However, as you note here, even if that happens...in 2012, we're still paying Beltre $18 million a season, but we're back to having 2 other holes. Viciedo could possibly be ready to fill a 1b hole there, but the reality is that the team would have itself locked into a long-term contract at 3b while being right back where it was this offseason on the other 2 positions. THat's why I called it another plausible rebuilding process starting next offseason.

If Lee has a solid season, I don't know why you couldn't just re-up with him. It not like once you sign a player to a 1-year deal you can't bring him back.

 

The way I see it is this particular roster probably has 1-2 years left as currently constructed to win. We have Danks coming to FA, Jackson with 1 year left on his deal, Peavy with 2 years left and an option for a third, Mark with 1 year left on his deal, Alexei with 2 years left (?), etc, etc. So if I am "all-in" this year and possibly the next, I want to do everything possible to maximize my possible performance, with some acceptable quantity of risk, for the next 1-2 years.

 

In my opinion, with a guy like Thome available and a guy like Lee available for a combination of $11-12 million, two players who have the history of consistent production and will most likely produce at a reasonably high level this season, you take the risk that they can fill your DH and 1b positions, which, by the way, are the easiest in baseball to fill should you need to replace one or both of them in a year or two, in lieu of signing Dunn and Konerko.

 

You then use the remaining money on Adrian Beltre, who throughout his career has been more valuable than Dunn because of his defensive ability. I think the difference in money and years is worth it considering the position scarcity involved and the increase in value Beltre has the potential to provide over Dunn. And just as with Dunn, you can trade him mid-contract if it becomes clear that the organization needs to change direction.

 

I just think it gives us a better chance to win in 2011 and 2012, which is kind of how the stars are aligned here when you consider the whole picture.

Edited January 15, 2011 by iamshack

[Balta1701]

If Lee has a solid season, I don't know why you couldn't just re-up with him. It not like once you sign a player to a 1-year deal you can't bring him back.

Because then you lose your big advantage...the fact that it's cheap. You're then on to paying more for Lee + Beltre in 2012 than you are for Konerko + Dunn + Morel in 2012, and if DLee has a good season to the point that you'd want him back, he may well be looking for a 2-3 year deal.

[Balta1701]

Even if he's not extended, Alexei Ramirez is under the Sox's control for 3 more seasons also.

[iamshack]

Because then you lose your big advantage...the fact that it's cheap. You're then on to paying more for Lee + Beltre in 2012 than you are for Konerko + Dunn + Morel in 2012, and if DLee has a good season to the point that you'd want him back, he may well be looking for a 2-3 year deal.

You really don't know that he's going to be able to get more than $8 million per year, especially considering the market for veterans over the past several seasons. In fact, I highly doubt that he would get more than $8 million per year in his age 36 season, and if there was an increase, it would probably be very negligible. Additionally, if he did have a season in which he was that marketable, it probably means that the plan works, the team made the playoffs, and you have more revenue available to you. It's also very possible that you could simply sign another player that is undervalued on the marketplace. The Sox have been very good at doing so ini their recent history.

[Balta1701]

And just as with Dunn, you can trade him mid-contract if it becomes clear that the organization needs to change direction.

I know the new defensive metrics are all the rage...but really, we've seen this story before on this exact player. Seattle wanted to trade Beltre basically from the first month of the first season of his last big contract, and they never could, despite him only making $12 mil a season on that deal.

[iamshack]

I know the new defensive metrics are all the rage...but really, we've seen this story before on this exact player. Seattle wanted to trade Beltre basically from the first month of the first season of his last big contract, and they never could, despite him only making $12 mil a season on that deal.

How could you possibly be in a position to know what they could and could not do with Adrian Beltre throughout the entire length of his contract with Seattle? And secondly, if he's playing in our ballpark, chances are his offensive numbers are going to be much stronger than they were in Seattle, just as they were in Boston last season.

[Balta1701]

How could you possibly be in a position to know what they could and could not do with Adrian Beltre throughout the entire length of his contract with Seattle? And secondly, if he's playing in our ballpark, chances are his offensive numbers are going to be much stronger than they were in Seattle, just as they were in Boston last season.

They made absolutely no secret about the fact that they absolutely hated that deal in Seattle. They tried to trade him for anything if someone else would take the contract. He'd have been a Twin in 2008 if he hadn't been making so much money.

 

Frankly, when the Mitchell Report came out and Beltre's name wasn't on the list, we were shocked. But enough already with nefarious suspicion -- let's get down to brass tacks: Beltre's tenure to date at the plate with the M's hasn't nearly been worth the money we're paying him. He needs to step it up, just like Big Sexy and the rest of the whipping boys.

Mariners fans hated his game.

 

Beltre on brink of being a bust

[iamshack]

They made absolutely no secret about the fact that they absolutely hated that deal in Seattle. They tried to trade him for anything if someone else would take the contract. He'd have been a Twin in 2008 if he hadn't been making so much money.

 

Mariners fans hated his game.

That doesn't substantiate your claims one bit. Secondly, what does this have to do with anything?

 

Dunn and Konerko have seen their values rise and fall as well. If anything, Konerko's pattern is almost the same as Beltre's. I'm not sure what this point proves? Are you saying that because Seattle had a difficult time trading Beltre in the past, in a different home ballpark, in a different market, with different data being used to set a player's value, and that, therefore, must mean that he will be untradeable in the future with his new contract, well, you just know better than that.

 

I would love to sit here and argue about things neither of us can prove, but I have to run. I'll be happy to pick it up at another time though.

Edited January 15, 2011 by iamshack

[Balta1701]

Here's one of the many articles on how the Twins were looking at Beltre.

[Balta1701]

You really don't know that he's going to be able to get more than $8 million per year, especially considering the market for veterans over the past several seasons. In fact, I highly doubt that he would get more than $8 million per year in his age 36 season, and if there was an increase, it would probably be very negligible. Additionally, if he did have a season in which he was that marketable, it probably means that the plan works, the team made the playoffs, and you have more revenue available to you. It's also very possible that you could simply sign another player that is undervalued on the marketplace. The Sox have been very good at doing so ini their recent history.

Lee signed a 1 year, $7.25 million deal this season, which can go up to $10 million in incentives. That's off a season where he struggled with back problems the whole first half. You can't expect me to believe that he'll have a good enough season that we'd want him back and then simultaneously he'll have to take less than $8 million for a 1 year deal next offseason.