Big Jim back with Twinx

[nitetrain8601]

Guess that takes them out of the Manny race.

[Milkman delivers]

That doesn't substantiate your claims one bit. Secondly, what does this have to do with anything?

 

Dunn and Konerko have seen their values rise and fall as well. If anything, Konerko's pattern is almost the same as Beltre's. I'm not sure what this point proves? Are you saying that because Seattle had a difficult time trading Beltre in the past, in a different home ballpark, in a different market, with different data being used to set a player's value, and that, therefore, must mean that he will be untradeable in the future with his new contract, well, you just know better than that.

 

I would love to sit here and argue about things neither of us can prove, but I have to run. I'll be happy to pick it up at another time though.

 

Beltre is like the poster boy for the player who shows up in his contract year and takes the rest of the time off.

[Balta1701]

Beltre is like the poster boy for the player who shows up in his contract year and takes the rest of the time off.

I know what you're saying and I 1/2 feel the same way...but he also is a poster-boy for the modern stats...which love him, especially on defense.

 

I feel like if he has a season like last year, he's a legitimate, $15 million a year player, but he's had 2 of those seasons in his career. In all the other years, he's been sorta an .800-ish OPS bat with solid defense. In a ballpark like the Cell, maybe that translates to .825-.850ish OPS, so we're talking good, but not the kind of bat that can carry a team, which is what I'm hoping for if I'm spending $18 million a year.

 

For a team that has a lot of resources and also has other major threats in their lineup where they don't need him to be their biggest bat, they'd be in good shape with him. For a team like us though...I just don't think it's a good use of our dollars.

[Leonard Zelig]

Beltre is like the poster boy for the player who shows up in his contract year and takes the rest of the time off.

Why didn't he show up in 2009?

[Balta1701]

Why didn't he show up in 2009?

Because he didn't wear protection.

[Leonard Zelig]

Because he didn't wear protection.

Gotta wrap that rascal!

[iamshack]

I know what you're saying and I 1/2 feel the same way...but he also is a poster-boy for the modern stats...which love him, especially on defense.

 

I feel like if he has a season like last year, he's a legitimate, $15 million a year player, but he's had 2 of those seasons in his career. In all the other years, he's been sorta an .800-ish OPS bat with solid defense. In a ballpark like the Cell, maybe that translates to .825-.850ish OPS, so we're talking good, but not the kind of bat that can carry a team, which is what I'm hoping for if I'm spending $18 million a year.

 

For a team that has a lot of resources and also has other major threats in their lineup where they don't need him to be their biggest bat, they'd be in good shape with him. For a team like us though...I just don't think it's a good use of our dollars.

He has been an elite defender his entire career. What you're doing is completely ignoring that fact. It's not just "modern stats" that favor his play, but finally the realization, after the steroids era, that defense is half of the game as well.

[iamshack]

Beltre is like the poster boy for the player who shows up in his contract year and takes the rest of the time off.

Can I not say basically the same thing about Paul Konerko?

Edited January 15, 2011 by iamshack

[Balta1701]

He has been an elite defender his entire career. What you're doing is completely ignoring that fact. It's not just "modern stats" that favor his play, but finally the realization, after the steroids era, that defense is half of the game as well.

There's a couple different currents underlying the whole "Moneyball" movement. Part of it has been the idea that advanced stats can provide new information that can help build winning teams...but the other part of it is using these stats to find hidden value.

 

Adrian Beltre is being paid like an MVP because he's an elite defender and an average bat, and he's getting that money entirely because that's what the advanced stats say about him. That's that half of the moneyball story, but it's not the other half. When everyone is using the same stats and paying huge contracts based on them, then trying to sign players based on those stats is a losing game, because you're not finding value.

[iamshack]

There's a couple different currents underlying the whole "Moneyball" movement. Part of it has been the idea that advanced stats can provide new information that can help build winning teams...but the other part of it is using these stats to find hidden value.

 

Adrian Beltre is being paid like an MVP because he's an elite defender and an average bat, and he's getting that money entirely because that's what the advanced stats say about him. That's that half of the moneyball story, but it's not the other half. When everyone is using the same stats and paying huge contracts based on them, then trying to sign players based on those stats is a losing game, because you're not finding value.

I didn't say a damn thing about Moneyball.

 

 

[Balta1701]

I didn't say a damn thing about Moneyball.

You missed the point of my post.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Can I not say basically the same thing about Paul Konerko?

 

No, you can't. Unless you want to ignore Paul's '01, '02, '04 and '06 seasons. Even in what could be considered 'off' years he was still an .840 plus OPS guy in '07 and '09. Outside of '03, where PK for some reason was mind-f***ed, and '08 when he was battling nagging injuries, he's been pretty damn consistent.

Edited January 15, 2011 by Jordan4life

[Milkman delivers]

Why didn't he show up in 2009?

 

I didn't say every contract year. That's why he had to make up for it with last year.

[Balta1701]

No, you can't. Unless you want to ignore Paul's '01, '02, '04 and '06 seasons. Even in what could be considered 'off' years he was still an .840 plus OPS guy in '07 and '09. Outside of '03, where PK for some reason was mind-f***ed, and '08 when he was battling nagging injuries, he's been pretty damn consistent.

PK14 was recovering from a broken foot throughout most of the first half of 2003. He broke it down the stretch in 2002 and played through it, and after the 03 season was over he casually told people that it was never really healthy. No I can't find a link for this, the story is just too old.

[Jordan4life_2007]

There's a couple different currents underlying the whole "Moneyball" movement. Part of it has been the idea that advanced stats can provide new information that can help build winning teams...but the other part of it is using these stats to find hidden value.

 

Adrian Beltre is being paid like an MVP because he's an elite defender and an average bat, and he's getting that money entirely because that's what the advanced stats say about him. That's that half of the moneyball story, but it's not the other half. When everyone is using the same stats and paying huge contracts based on them, then trying to sign players based on those stats is a losing game, because you're not finding value.

 

I totally understand what you're saying. Defense has become the fad, much like OPS in the early 2000's, post steroids. This is fact. Unless you really believe the Mariners gave Franklin Gutierrez 4 years and over 20 million because of his bat.

[Jordan4life_2007]

PK14 was recovering from a broken foot throughout most of the first half of 2003. He broke it down the stretch in 2002 and played through it, and after the 03 season was over he casually told people that it was never really healthy. No I can't find a link for this, the story is just too old.

 

Honestly, I don't remember him ever being hurt. I do remember that he seemed completely void of any confidence at the plate for most of that season. It wasn't until that clutch two-run HR against the Twins in July that he even resembled a major leaguer.

[Balta1701]

I totally understand what you're saying. Defense has become the fad, much like OPS in the early 2000's, post steroids. This is fact. Unless you really believe the Mariners gave Franklin Gutierrez 4 years and over 20 million because of his bat.

I don't have a problem with paying a lot more than $4 years and $20 million for a defense first guy if he puts up the kind of offense he did in 2009 (.764 OPS), but this is a guy who put up a .666 OPS last year. Fangraphs thinks that Franklin Gutierrez was a $28 million player in 2009 and a $9 million player last year. You can win with guys like that, but if you're going to put them out there, you need offense somewhere else.

[Balta1701]

Honestly, I don't remember him ever being hurt.

The SOB kept his mouth shut and took the abuse the whole first half of the season. He didn't complain publicly at all. By 2005 he was saying "Yeah, I felt like crap" the whole 03 season, but he never used that as a public excuse in 2003.

[iamshack]

I totally understand what you're saying. Defense has become the fad, much like OPS in the early 2000's, post steroids. This is fact. Unless you really believe the Mariners gave Franklin Gutierrez 4 years and over 20 million because of his bat.

This coming from the guy who praised Gutierrez repeatedly the entire offseason last year.

 

Defense is not a fad. Defense is an integral part of the game. The fact that it is recognized monetarily or not may be a fad at certain times, but that does not make the player less valuable on the field. It means at times, more valuable players are rewarded less monetarily for their defensive skills. Don't confuse the two.

 

This whole Moneyball angle you two are trying to advocate means nothing. No one is saying that there is something wrong with trying to sign undervalued players. What you guys are advocating is ignoring value because it has been ignored at certain times in the past, especially those times when offense was artificially inflated by performance enhancing drugs.

 

The reason defense is even MORE important now is because most of the drugs are out of the game, and so there are more balls in play than there were when the drugs were in the game.

[Jordan4life_2007]

This coming from the guy who praised Gutierrez repeatedly the entire offseason last year.

Defense is not a fad. Defense is an integral part of the game. The fact that it is recognized monetarily or not may be a fad at certain times, but that does not make the player less valuable on the field. It means at times, more valuable players are rewarded less monetarily for their defensive skills. Don't confuse the two.

 

This whole Moneyball angle you two are trying to advocate means nothing. No one is saying that there is something wrong with trying to sign undervalued players. What you guys are advocating is ignoring value because it has been ignored at certain times in the past, especially those times when offense was artificially inflated by performance enhancing drugs.

 

The reason defense is even MORE important now is because most of the drugs are out of the game, and so there are more balls in play than there were when the drugs were in the game.

 

I praise him because of his defense and pretty much only his defense. Beltre, other than 2004 and last year, has been nothing to write home about offensively. But he's being paid like a top-10 player in baseball because of the fact, like Balta stated multiple times, that he's a premier defender. That still doesn't really justify the years/money spent on him by the Rangers. I think that was Balta's point. Now I get what you're saying as far as Safeco depressing Beltre's offensive numbers. But look at Agon. He had still been a beast despite playing half his game in a park that favored pitchers. 5-6 years and all that coin, way too risky for me for a guy [beltre] that's only had two great years. And you pretty much made my point for me. I'm not saying defense was completely ignored before the 'roid era hit. But it certainly wasn't valued like it was when it seemed like even average to bad offensive teams were averaging 5 plus runs.

Edited January 15, 2011 by Jordan4life

[Balta1701]

The reason defense is even MORE important now is because most of the drugs are out of the game, and so there are more balls in play than there were when the drugs were in the game.

Really? I just did the math on this and I don't believe so. In 2002, Bonds's year, the average team had 7 more at bats than in 2010. The average team had 24 more hits, but 15 of those were HR. However, in 2010 there were on average 100 more strikeouts per team than in 2002. So, there were about 90 fewer balls in play per team last year than at the peak of the steroid era.

 

And furthermore, that's 90 balls in play out of 5500 at bats, so the difference you're talking about there is very small.

[iamshack]

I praise him because of his defense and pretty much only his defense. Beltre, other than 2004 and last year, has been nothing to write home about offensively. But he's being paid like a top-10 player in baseball because of the fact, like Balta stated multiple times, that he's a premier defender. That still doesn't really justify the years/money spent on him by the Rangers. I think that was Balta's point. Now I get what you're saying as far as Safeco depressing Beltre's offensive numbers. But at 5-6 years and all that coin, way too risky for me for a guy that's only had two great years. And you pretty much made my point for me. I'm not saying defense was completely ignored before the 'roid era hit. But it's certainly not valued like it was when it seemed like even average to bad offensive teams were averaging 5 plus runs.

He's played the majority of his career in not only Safeco, but Dodger stadium as well.

 

He's hit 20 or more homers in 8 seasons, and 19 in another, so let's not pretend like he's some garbage player offensively.

 

He's going to produce quite a bit in Texas in that lineup, so I don't think you're going to think he's some schlep at the plate after the next few years.

 

I understand you guys may want to discount the value Fangraphs assign to players, and maybe it isn't completely accurate all the time, but it's still a hell of a lot better than some random opinion you guys are pulling out of thin air.

[iamshack]

Really? I just did the math on this and I don't believe so. In 2002, Bonds's year, the average team had 7 more at bats than in 2010. The average team had 24 more hits, but 15 of those were HR. However, in 2010 there were on average 100 more strikeouts per team than in 2002. So, there were about 90 fewer balls in play per team last year than at the peak of the steroid era.

 

And furthermore, that's 90 balls in play out of 5500 at bats, so the difference you're talking about there is very small.

Leave it to you to do this.

 

Fine. Runs are far more valuable now that offensive production is down, and therefore, defense is at more of a premium.

 

Happy?

[Jordan4life_2007]

He's played the majority of his career in not only Safeco, but Dodger stadium as well.

 

He's hit 20 or more homers in 8 seasons, and 19 in another, so let's not pretend like he's some garbage player offensively.

 

He's going to produce quite a bit in Texas in that lineup, so I don't think you're going to think he's some schlep at the plate after the next few years.

 

I understand you guys may want to discount the value Fangraphs assign to players, and maybe it isn't completely accurate all the time, but it's still a hell of a lot better than some random opinion you guys are pulling out of thin air.

 

I edited my post and added some stuff. Not sure you saw it. But Agon was still able to put up monster seasons playing half his game at Petco. The messiah for pitchers' parks. All I'm saying is that by year 3, or maybe even earlier, the Rangers could be regretting that deal. But I get what you're saying as far as just 2011 or even 2012 goes. I'm not that kinda fan. I think more like a GM. Well a GM not named Kenny Williams. I look at 3-5 years down the road as much as I do the current year. That's why I value draft picks and a strong farm more than the average fan does.

Edited January 15, 2011 by Jordan4life

[iamshack]

I edited my post and added some stuff. Not sure you saw it. But Agon was still able to put up monster seasons playing half his game at Petco. The messiah for pitchers' parks. All I'm saying is that by year 3, or maybe even earlier, the Rangers could be regretting that deal. But I get what you're saying as far as just 2011 or even 2012 goes. I'm not that kinda fan. I think more like a GM. Well a GM not named Kenny Williams. I look at 3-5 years down the road as much as I do the current year. That's why I value draft picks and a strong farm more than the average fan does.

I'm not saying the guy is Adrian Gonzalez. I'm saying he's Adrian Beltre.

 

And I'm not saying I would have been comfortable offering what the Rangers offered, I said I think if we would have offered 5/$78 2 months ago maybe we would have been able to get it done.

 

I think Beltre will probably slow down in year 4 and 5, but I think his production in years 1-3 will help offset that.