Albert Pujols' extension - Cards fail to extend by deadline

[Leonard Zelig]

Do you really think there's a team out there that's going to gut their farm for a couple months of Pujols? In other words, would you trade Sale, Viciedo, maybe, you know what, nevermind. I can't even use the White Sox in this hypothetical because the farm is so bad. I can't even come up with a fantasy trade that could net us Pujols.

Well, what kind of precedent is there? I'm trying to recall recent similar scenarios and the closest I can come up with is when the Cardinals traded for Holliday in 2009. They gave up Shane Peterson, Clayton Mortenson and Brett Wallace. Mortenson & Wallace were first round picks in 2007 & 2008 and Peterson was a second round pick in 2008. I don't know much about them, but I think Wallace was considered St. Louis' top prospect at the time.

[chisoxfan09]

Well, what kind of precedent is there? I'm trying to recall recent similar scenarios and the closest I can come up with is when the Cardinals traded for Holliday in 2009. They gave up Shane Peterson, Clayton Mortenson and Brett Wallace. Mortenson & Wallace were first round picks in 2007 & 2008 and Peterson was a second round pick in 2008. I don't know much about them, but I think Wallace was considered St. Louis' top prospect at the time.

 

I really don't see the Cards trading away Pujols but hey stranger things have happened. It really boils down to what happens in the next 4 weeks and how much pressure the card's FO will feel to turn a potentially negative fan experience into something positive. And then that will probably take its twists and turns until the trade deadline if it indeed goes that way.

[bighurt574]

I doubt the Cards trade Pujols at the deadline. They'd have to be both (1) out of contention for the season, and (2) convinced that they won't be able to re-sign him (a trade would seem to hurt their chances at re-signing him, it's pretty rare to see an impending free agent traded only to re-sign with his old team). I don't see both of those happening.

[Leonard Zelig]

I doubt the Cards trade Pujols at the deadline. They'd have to be both (1) out of contention for the season, and (2) convinced that they won't be able to re-sign him (a trade would seem to hurt their chances at re-signing him, it's pretty rare to see an impending free agent traded only to re-sign with his old team). I don't see both of those happening.

 

The Cardinals have known this was coming for the past 6 years, they must have been thinking about for at least the past 3. If they haven't resigned him when they are the only team who can even talk to him, what are the chances of resigning him when every team can throw money at him? If they don't extend him before spring training, then I believe they have either really shot themselves in the foot or have known all along they weren't going to.

Edited January 18, 2011 by Leonard Zelig

[Balta1701]

The Cardinals have known this was coming for the past 6 years, they must have been thinking about for at least the past 3. If they haven't resigned him when they are the only team who can even talk to him, what are the chances of resigning him when every team can throw money at him? If they don't extend him before spring training, then I believe they have either really shot themselves in the foot or have known all along they weren't going to.

I don't think they've shot themselves in the foot here...what else could they have done? Tear up Albert's previous contract and offer him 10/$350? That might have gotten him signed already, but it'd probably be an overpay.

 

There really is no comparison for an Albert Pujols hitting the market right now. Other, worse 1b are getting $25 million a year in their 37 year old seasons.

 

There's a reasonable chance that they'll still sign him if he hits the FA market and actually wants to return. He's worth more to them than to other franchises, so if he goes out on the market and the Yankees offer 10/$300, if he came back to the Cardinals and asked them to beat it, they probably should, and that benefits Pujols as well.

[Leonard Zelig]

I don't think they've shot themselves in the foot here...what else could they have done? Tear up Albert's previous contract and offer him 10/$350? That might have gotten him signed already, but it'd probably be an overpay.

 

There really is no comparison for an Albert Pujols hitting the market right now. Other, worse 1b are getting $25 million a year in their 37 year old seasons.

 

There's a reasonable chance that they'll still sign him if he hits the FA market and actually wants to return. He's worth more to them than to other franchises, so if he goes out on the market and the Yankees offer 10/$300, if he came back to the Cardinals and asked them to beat it, they probably should, and that benefits Pujols as well.

 

They let their 6 year window of opportunity dwindle to 30 days, what would you call that? Of course that would have been an overpay, anybody who signs him is going to overpay. Do you reasonably expect STL to win a bidding war for him?

[Milkman delivers]

Yikes, talking about contracts in the $300 million range. I wonder how long it will be before someone signs a billion dollar contract.

[Balta1701]

Do you reasonably expect STL to win a bidding war for him?

Yes. Albert Pujols is worth more in revenue to the Cardinals than to any other team, Yankees included.

[WCSox]

Well my point is that if they trade him at the deadline, they can get a good collection of young players, and then make a bid to sign him in the offseason still. But if they attempt to sign him in the offseason and lose him, they just get the 2 draft picks.

 

Handful of prospects + resign Albert Pujols

or

2 draft picks OR resign Albert Pujols

 

I'd take the first option, but again, this is if they aren't leading the divison/wild card, or are like 3-4 games back. Otherwise, I'd sacrifice a few months of Pujols to protect yourself incase he doesn't resign.

 

And my point is that trading Pujols in the middle of the season will likely piss him off and make him not want to re-sign with the Cardinals. Especially if the stories about him being on the touchy side are true.

 

So, yeah, you could probably get some good prospects by dealing Pujols. But you *only* do that when you've given up on re-signing him.

 

[Balta1701]

And my point is that trading Pujols in the middle of the season will likely piss him off and make him not want to re-sign with the Cardinals. Especially if the stories about him being on the touchy side are true.

 

So, yeah, you could probably get some good prospects by dealing Pujols. But you *only* do that when you've given up on re-signing him.

And if you've fallen completely out of the race (Which shouldn't happen).

[Leonard Zelig]

Yes. Albert Pujols is worth more in revenue to the Cardinals than to any other team, Yankees included.

 

He's made it pretty clear that he wants to play for a team that is competitive. I don't know what the difference is between what he would sign for now compared to what he would make in FA, and I don't think anybody does. I'm not sure how long the Cardinals can field a competitive team with either contract, but it will become harder if it goes into a bidding war.

[Rowand44]

Yes. Albert Pujols is worth more in revenue to the Cardinals than to any other team, Yankees included.

Is he though? This argument obviously makes sense for a lot of players but I don't think Pujols is one of them.

[southsider2k5]

Yes. Albert Pujols is worth more in revenue to the Cardinals than to any other team, Yankees included.

 

Here is my question, even pre-Poo Holes, when has the stadium in St Louis ever been empty? That is a faithful bunch there. They are almost Cubs-esque in their Cardinal love.

[LittleHurt05]

Here is my question, even pre-Poo Holes, when has the stadium in St Louis ever been empty? That is a faithful bunch there. They are almost Cubs-esque in their Cardinal love.

 

That very true. I do know that they love their Pujols now. If they lose to him to another team, partly because they didnt offer him as much money as he asked for, could you see some of them revolting by avoiding games for a while? I know they are faithful, but losing the icon that is Albert Pujols could upset some of the fan base.

[southsider2k5]

That very true. I do know that they love their Pujols now. If they lose to him to another team, partly because they didnt offer him as much money as he asked for, could you see some of them revolting by avoiding games for a while? I know they are faithful, but losing the icon that is Albert Pujols could upset some of the fan base.

 

The question is would it upset them $30 million or so in total revenue per season for somewhere around 10 years? Otherwise there is the distinct chance that the Cards would lose money by resigning Albert.

[Balta1701]

Here is my question, even pre-Poo Holes, when has the stadium in St Louis ever been empty? That is a faithful bunch there. They are almost Cubs-esque in their Cardinal love.

BUUUUUT...right before Pujols, their 1b was this combination of chemistry and biology named McGwire. That thing put butts in the seats as well.

 

This is a regularly successful franchise. They've had 1 losing season since 1999, and 7 playoff appearances in that stretch. The Cell wouldn't be empty if we'd had 7 playoff appearances, 1 WS win, and 2 WS appearances in the last 10 years.

 

That said...they've made the playoffs only 1 of the last 4 years, and in that time, they've seen their attendance dip by 250,000 people per year.

 

The Cardinals have been successful enough that they haven't had to concern themselves with a period of losing and rebuilding. I can't see any way they'd avoid doing exactly that if they lost or traded Pujols.

[Leonard Zelig]

Are you saying their attendance has dropped by 1 million over the past 4 years? That is not true.

[Balta1701]

Are you saying their attendance has dropped by 1 million over the past 4 years? That is not true.

You're right, I phrased that wrong. Their attendance has dropped by 250k from their peak attendance a couple years ago.

 

If that's a $50 a ticket drop, then that's ~$10 million less revenue.

 

Can anyone tell me that if the Cardinals lost Pujols and dropped into last place, they couldn't see another 500k drop in their attendance?

[southsider2k5]

BUUUUUT...right before Pujols, their 1b was this combination of chemistry and biology named McGwire. That thing put butts in the seats as well.

 

This is a regularly successful franchise. They've had 1 losing season since 1999, and 7 playoff appearances in that stretch. The Cell wouldn't be empty if we'd had 7 playoff appearances, 1 WS win, and 2 WS appearances in the last 10 years.

 

That said...they've made the playoffs only 1 of the last 4 years, and in that time, they've seen their attendance dip by 250,000 people per year.

 

The Cardinals have been successful enough that they haven't had to concern themselves with a period of losing and rebuilding. I can't see any way they'd avoid doing exactly that if they lost or traded Pujols.

 

The Cardinals attendance is amazing. Going back 25 seasons, they have been under 30k per game only once if you throw out the post strike 1995, and hey were still over 2 million total that year (1992). That is an exceptional run. For reference even throwing out the strike marred years, the Cubs have been under 30k a night 7 times in the last 25 years.

[WCSox]

The Cardinals are basically the Yankees of the Midwest: Second in WS championships, second in HOF players, and an extremely dedicated fan base. (But unlike Yankees fans, Cards fans are extremely hospitable and polite.) They could suck for a few years and you'd still see the massive sea of red making its way from the parking lot to the turnstile.

 

That said, I don't see them using that as an excuse to let Pujols walk. They're very aware of their place in baseball history and Pujols is basically the 21st Century incarnation of Stan Musial.

 

[chisoxfan09]

No one really knows how this will play out but I could see either the Cards (or other teams if he hits FA) offering initial contracts/extension of like 6/180 or 6/190 with some or a lot of money deferred. That would give Pujols a paycheck for quite a few years and really give him a chance to chip away at bond's home run record if he stays healthy. Still think his elbow is a cause for concern.

[Balta1701]

No one really knows how this will play out but I could see either the Cards (or other teams if he hits FA) offering initial contracts/extension of like 6/180 or 6/190 with some or a lot of money deferred. That would give Pujols a paycheck for quite a few years and really give him a chance to chip away at bond's home run record if he stays healthy. Still think his elbow is a cause for concern.

I think they'll laugh at that.

 

They might well take less money per year for more years. He is already 31. If he signs for 6 years, that means he hits FA again at 37, and that's just not a good time to hit FA based on recent standards; even if he's on fire, he'll be getting 1-2 year deals, not 5 years.

 

You give him 10 years, you might get him under $30 million a year.

[southsider2k5]

No one really knows how this will play out but I could see either the Cards (or other teams if he hits FA) offering initial contracts/extension of like 6/180 or 6/190 with some or a lot of money deferred. That would give Pujols a paycheck for quite a few years and really give him a chance to chip away at bond's home run record if he stays healthy. Still think his elbow is a cause for concern.

 

Here is the hard part for the Cardinals. If they are going to try to resign him, it has to be a legitimate offer. If it is a fraction of what could be gotten else where, it makes it easy for him to leave, and it makes the organization look bad. If they offer 6/180, while someone else is willing to go 10/300, The Cardinals will have to answer to their fans. If the difference is something like 9/250 versus 10/300, the Cardinals can legitmately look like they gave an honest effort, and keep the fanbase as happy as can be expected.

[Balta1701]

Here is the hard part for the Cardinals. If they are going to try to resign him, it has to be a legitimate offer. If it is a fraction of what could be gotten else where, it makes it easy for him to leave, and it makes the organization look bad. If they offer 6/180, while someone else is willing to go 10/300, The Cardinals will have to answer to their fans. If the difference is something like 9/250 versus 10/300, the Cardinals can legitmately look like they gave an honest effort, and keep the fanbase as happy as can be expected.

But the problem there is..."You lost Albert over a measly $5 million a season"?

[chisoxfan09]

Link: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/st-loui...rces-say-020511

 

 

Quick update - Ken Rosenthal reports talks are not going well and Cards ownership balking at supposed asking price of 10/300 million. He could be a FA after the season but the clubs with money already have 1B locked up. The Cubs will have cleared a lot of payroll and if they unload Zambrano to the Yankees as some speculate well then even more money to spend... Time will tell.