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Brent Morel projection


joeynach

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QUOTE (3E8 @ Jan 20, 2011 -> 11:08 AM)
Which last year would've been the 10th best wOBA for 3B in all of baseball. This projection is nutty.

 

I definitely agree.

 

I think he should be good for something around .315-.320. And that's pretty optimistic IMO.

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QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Jan 20, 2011 -> 01:05 PM)
Before we get too optimistic, remember that our manager is Ozzie Guillien.

 

Ozzie on whether Morel is his starter at 3B: "That would be a slap in the face of Teahen." - Doug Padilla

 

I think Ozzie really meant Vizquel.

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QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Jan 20, 2011 -> 02:05 PM)
Before we get too optimistic, remember that our manager is Ozzie Guillien.

 

Ozzie on whether Morel is his starter at 3B: "That would be a slap in the face of Teahen." - Doug Padilla

 

I, for one, would be tremendously dissapointed if Teahen starts over Morel. Even if Morel only hits ~230 or so.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 20, 2011 -> 10:00 AM)
I agree. I'll be happy with .250/.300/450

Same here. I'm thinking more like .235-.250/.290-.310/.390+ and as a strong defensive player with some pop and good speed making the league minimum, that's good enough.

 

He's also backed so deeply at 3B (Dayan, Omar, Brent, Teahen) that we shouldn't be hurt if he really struggles out of the gate and needs to be demoted. I wouldn't even call 3B a position of weakness actually because we've got so much D and flexibility there.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jan 20, 2011 -> 11:28 AM)
There is a decent population of minor league guys that hit in the minors at high clips and don't hit immediately in the majors and we can't pretend that Morel is a top 10 prospect in baseball or something. He's a guy that misses out on the typical prospect rankings because his upside isn't that high, but what he does, he does very well and really has the ability to be that propsect that no one got excited about but that just does his thing and does everything average offensively for his position and hopefully will be above average defensively.

 

I think Morel will be able to handle his own but I'm not going to pretend there won't be a learning curve. I think at his best he could be a .280 to .310 hitter with 10-15 hr's, quite a few doubles, all while playing above average defense. But that won't happen overnight. However, he could also be a guy that once you get to the big leagues his lack of true athletism gets in the way and prevents him from being able to hit for as high of an average. Fundementally he is very sound though and I think he has enough talent to be productive.

I agree with all this, except I see Morel with a lower BA and more power. But he's the kind of player (like Crede) that could really help a team greatly. Because he probably will never be a star, but may very well become a solid regular, he's the kind of guy we could have cheaply for 6 years and then actually extend without breaking the bank. He could end up a nice complimentary piece good enough to keep us from looking for an upgrade while at the same time saving us lots of money. I admit I hated the Brent Morel pick when the Sox made it but each year that goes by he looks better and better, and last season he really impressed me. He's really looking like a great value pick.

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QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jan 20, 2011 -> 02:18 PM)
I agree with all this, except I see Morel with a lower BA and more power. But he's the kind of player (like Crede) that could really help a team greatly. Because he probably will never be a star, but may very well become a solid regular, he's the kind of guy we could have cheaply for 6 years and then actually extend without breaking the bank. He could end up a nice complimentary piece good enough to keep us from looking for an upgrade while at the same time saving us lots of money. I admit I hated the Brent Morel pick when the Sox made it but each year that goes by he looks better and better, and last season he really impressed me. He's really looking like a great value pick.

 

Kinda like Joe Randa.

 

If everything pans out, that's probably what he's gonna be.

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QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jan 20, 2011 -> 09:12 PM)
Same here. I'm thinking more like .235-.250/.290-.310/.390+ and as a strong defensive player with some pop and good speed making the league minimum, that's good enough.

 

He's also backed so deeply at 3B (Dayan, Omar, Brent, Teahen) that we shouldn't be hurt if he really struggles out of the gate and needs to be demoted. I wouldn't even call 3B a position of weakness actually because we've got so much D and flexibility there.

 

I think he can hit .250. My slugging was high though, likely.

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QUOTE (chw42 @ Jan 20, 2011 -> 02:53 PM)
Kinda like Joe Randa.

 

If everything pans out, that's probably what he's gonna be.

As far as I know, the Joe Randa comps (at least over the internet) started right here at SoxTalk in the FutureSox section, and I made them too. Just seemed to fit so well. But after seeing him I think the Randa comps are selling his pop short. Randa looks like he averaged 10-13 HR or so per season, with his high being 17 and his low being 7 during a full season of ABs. And he just doesn't look like a high average hitter to me at all. Someone on here threw out a Crede comp right after seeing him and I agree with that a lot, except obviously Morel will be more effective on the basepaths.

 

Edit: Randa over his career averaged .284/.339/.426/.765 while Crede averaged 254/.304/.444/.748. I think Morel would be closer to Crede's numbers, only I'd adjust them higher simply because presumably Morel won't have to deal with the back issues that has cut Crede's numbers down. Maybe Morel is Corey Koskie (.275/.367/.458) minus 30 points or so in OBP.

Edited by Kenny Hates Prospects
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QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jan 20, 2011 -> 03:36 PM)
As far as I know, the Joe Randa comps (at least over the internet) started right here at SoxTalk in the FutureSox section, and I made them too. Just seemed to fit so well. But after seeing him I think the Randa comps are selling his pop short. Randa looks like he averaged 10-13 HR or so per season, with his high being 17 and his low being 7 during a full season of ABs. And he just doesn't look like a high average hitter to me at all. Someone on here threw out a Crede comp right after seeing him and I agree with that a lot, except obviously Morel will be more effective on the basepaths.

 

Edit: Randa over his career averaged .284/.339/.426/.765 while Crede averaged 254/.304/.444/.748. I think Morel would be closer to Crede's numbers, only I'd adjust them higher simply because presumably Morel won't have to deal with the back issues that has cut Crede's numbers down. Maybe Morel is Corey Koskie (.275/.367/.458) minus 30 points or so in OBP.

 

I think Morel's contact ability is better than Crede's. I think a compromise in between would be nice.

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QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Jan 20, 2011 -> 03:41 PM)
Does anybody know how Brent pronounces his last name? At first it was MORel, like morl, but then Hawk changed it to moREL, emphasis on the last syllable. I thought it was the first way forever.

 

I think it's MoREL. Although I like morl.

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QUOTE (chw42 @ Jan 20, 2011 -> 04:05 PM)
I think Morel's contact ability is better than Crede's. I think a compromise in between would be nice.

I'd agree with this, and also on the pronunciation. I think it's as you say, as in the mushroom or as "More Elle (MacPherson)" which BTW is weird because More Elle MacPherson is actually part of our Spring Training 3B depth chart.

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QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jan 20, 2011 -> 05:27 PM)
I'd agree with this, and also on the pronunciation. I think it's as you say, as in the mushroom or as "More Elle (MacPherson)" which BTW is weird because More Elle MacPherson is actually part of our Spring Training 3B depth chart.

 

"Hey, so what's the 3B platoon for today's spring training game?"

"Morel-McPherson"

"More Elle MacPherson? I agree, she is sexy, I'd love to see more of her"

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 20, 2011 -> 10:57 AM)
How many rookies come up after hitting around .330 at every level they've played at?

 

That's the real question regarding these projections...how much does the batting average drop going from AA and AAA to the bigs?

 

Here is an interesting comp

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/joe-crede.shtml

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/Brent-Morel.shtml

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 20, 2011 -> 05:45 PM)
I know I'd be thrilled. It would be rough to wait out the time for him to grow up if he took Joe's path though.

I think much of the fan growing pains with Crede stems from our overall s***tiness as a ballclub though. Joe's gradually improving defense would have been a lot more noticeable had Frank and Maggs not gotten hurt in 2004 as one example.

 

I just hope Morel in 2011 doesn't become Brian Anderson in 2006, ie we put a young guy out there for defensive purposes and then throw him under the bus for a lack of offense when the actual problem is another area, in that case the bullpen. Knowing Morel's defensive abilities I don't see how he could hurt us being out there.

Edited by Kenny Hates Prospects
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