MLB.COM'S top 50 prospects rankings

[Jordan4life_2007]

1. Mike Trout, Angels

2. Jeremy Hellickson, Rays

3. Bryce Harper, Nationals

4. Domonic Brown, Phillies

5. Dustin Ackley, Mariners

6. Aroldis Chapman, Reds

7. Mike Moustakas, Royals

8. Eric Hosmer, Royals

9. Jesus Montero, Yankees

10. Julio Teheran, Braves

11. Desmond Jennings, Rays

12. Kyle Drabek, Blue Jays

13. Michael Pineda, Mariners

14. Mike Montgomery, Royals

15. Jacob Turner, Tigers

16. Wil Myers, Royals

17. Freddie Freeman, Braves

18. Jameson Taillon, Pirates

19. Zach Britton, Orioles

20. Shelby Miller, Cardinals

21. Mike Minor, Braves

22. Casey Kelly, Padres

23. Martin Perez, Rangers

24. Manny Machado, Orioles

25. Chris Sale, White Sox

26. Brandon Belt, Giants

27. Matt Moore, Rays

28. Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays

29. Jarrod Parker, D-backs

30. Jonathan Singleton, Phillies

31. Jordan Lyles, Astros

32. Gary Sanchez, Yankees

33. Tyler Matzek, Rockies

34. John Lamb, Royals

35. Manny Banuelos, Yankees

36. Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians

37. Jake Odorizzi, Royals

38. Nick Franklin, Mariners

39. Aaron Hicks, Twins

40. Kyle Gibson, Twins

41. Wilin Rosario, Rockies

42. Jose Iglesias, Red Sox

43. Tanner Scheppers, Rangers

44. Dee Gordon, Dodgers

45. Devin Mesoraco, Reds

46. Brett Jackson, Cubs

47. Chris Archer, Rays

48. J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays

49. Yonder Alonso, Reds

50. Christian Friedrich, Rockies

 

Sale our lone representative. Royals with a whopping 6. Was surprised to see Trout at #1. Just assumed it'd be Harper. I'm pretty sure there were a few people here that wanted Trout at #23 if he was still available. Ended up taking Mitchell, obviously, with Trout going two picks later to the Angels. I know, I know. Hindsight. Whatever. Just hope Mitchell bounces back big time this year.

[chetkincaid]

I wonder where Jared Mitchell would be on this list had he not gotten hurt...

[witesoxfan]

I wonder where Jared Mitchell would be on this list had he not gotten hurt...

 

I guess a lot of that depends on how well he would have played.

 

Really not a bad looking list for an MLB.com list. Not sure I like Ackley so high, but overall it's pretty fair. The Sox system is awful, and has been for a while, so it's not surprising that they only have one in the top 50.

[Rowand44]

I guess a lot of that depends on how well he would have played.

 

Really not a bad looking list for an MLB.com list. Not sure I like Ackley so high, but overall it's pretty fair. The Sox system is awful, and has been for a while, so it's not surprising that they only have one in the top 50.

That's definitely all we deserve. At least he's a blue chipper though(gotta look for a positive somewhere).

[Balta1701]

That's definitely all we deserve. At least he's a blue chipper though(gotta look for a positive somewhere).

If you want to look for a different type of Positive...Morel isn't on any of those lists, and he's got a good shot at, in the long term, out-producing most of the guys on that list. Yeah, some of them will be stars, but even in the top 10 there's a 40-50% bust rate.

[maggsmaggs]

If you want to look for a different type of Positive...Morel isn't on any of those lists, and he's got a good shot at, in the long term, out-producing most of the guys on that list. Yeah, some of them will be stars, but even in the top 10 there's a 40-50% bust rate.

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992...p-mlb-prospects

 

Great study done by some random fan. One of his conclusions:

 

About 70% of Baseball America top 100 prospects fail.

 

So there ya go, those lists are very poor indicators outside the the top 20.

Edited February 14, 2011 by maggsmaggs

[Balta1701]

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992...p-mlb-prospects

 

Great study done by some random fan. One his conclusions:

 

About 70% of Baseball America top 100 prospects fail.

 

So there ya go, those lists are very poor indicators outside the the top 20.

To say it another way...Fangraphs gives Sergio Santos 1 WAR already. That's more than ~40% of that list will produce.

 

I also found it interesting that over the time period studied, the White Sox are #4 on the list of successful prospect percentage.

[maggsmaggs]

To say it another way...Fangraphs gives Sergio Santos 1 WAR already. That's more than ~40% of that list will produce.

 

I also found it interesting that over the time period studied, the White Sox are #4 on the list of successful prospect percentage.

Yeah that was crazy to me. But real interesting insights on there.

[southsider2k5]

To say it another way...Fangraphs gives Sergio Santos 1 WAR already. That's more than ~40% of that list will produce.

 

I also found it interesting that over the time period studied, the White Sox are #4 on the list of successful prospect percentage.

 

Or to say it another way, Kenny isn't as dumb as many people think.

[Balta1701]

Or to say it another way, Kenny isn't as dumb as many people think.

No one made him give Mark Kotsay a contract last year....

[Jordan4life_2007]

To say it another way...Fangraphs gives Sergio Santos 1 WAR already. That's more than ~40% of that list will produce.

 

I also found it interesting that over the time period studied, the White Sox are #4 on the list of successful prospect percentage.

 

It's not that interesting to me. Most of the "prospects" we've "developed" were drafted by other organizations. Not saying there's anything wrong with that. That's the one thing we've been good at. Raiding other systems. But this still doesn't mask the fact that our drafting/developing has been putrid for the last decade.

[Balta1701]

It's not that interesting to me. Most of the "prospects" we've "developed" were drafted by other organizations. Not saying there's anything wrong with that. That's the one thing we've been good at. Raiding other systems. But this still doesn't mask the fact that our drafting/developing has been putrid for the last decade.

It's also worth noting that they give the total number of prospects each team has had appear on that list. The White Sox are tied for 12th, above average (the Braves of course run away with it). The Sox have had more than the average number of players appear on those lists and have had one of the highest success rates.

[Jordan4life_2007]

It's also worth noting that they give the total number of prospects each team has had appear on that list. The White Sox are tied for 12th, above average (the Braves of course run away with it). The Sox have had more than the average number of players appear on those lists and have had one of the highest success rates.

 

To be fair, I didn't read that entire article. I just kinda skimmed through it. But the criteria this guy uses is flawed to me. The Sox are flat bad at drafting. There's no way to mask that fact. That's all I'm saying. This article doesn't make KW and Co. look smarter.

[witesoxfan]

To be fair, I didn't read that entire article. I just kinda skimmed through it. But the criteria this guy uses is flawed to me. The Sox are flat bad at drafting. There's no way to mask that fact. That's all I'm saying. This article doesn't make KW and Co. look smarter.

 

This is going to be the standard line that we've been using for a while, but really, if you are good enough at drafting that you can develop that talent into trade bait, then you are doing well enough. I agree that they need to draft and develop better, but it has improved monumentally over the past 3-5 years. Off the top of my head, I can think of Clayton Richard, Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Sweeney, Chris Carter, Gordon Beckham, Brent Morel, and Chris Sale that have all been drafted and developed by the White Sox, and I'm sure there are a couple others in there too. The only two of the four in the group that I would want back - meaning I would want the trade to be done over again - are Gio and Sweeney, and that's more due to their value on the trade market than it is my fascination for them. Personally, I think quite a bit more highly of both Carter and Richard, but I'm not going to redo the Quentin and Peavy trades.

[Jordan4life_2007]

This is going to be the standard line that we've been using for a while, but really, if you are good enough at drafting that you can develop that talent into trade bait, then you are doing well enough. I agree that they need to draft and develop better, but it has improved monumentally over the past 3-5 years. Off the top of my head, I can think of Clayton Richard, Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Sweeney, Chris Carter, Gordon Beckham, Brent Morel, and Chris Sale that have all been drafted and developed by the White Sox, and I'm sure there are a couple others in there too. The only two of the four in the group that I would want back - meaning I would want the trade to be done over again - are Gio and Sweeney, and that's more due to their value on the trade market than it is my fascination for them. Personally, I think quite a bit more highly of both Carter and Richard, but I'm not going to redo the Quentin and Peavy trades.

 

I agree with most of this. The thing is, the mlb draft is 50 rounds. This isn't the nba or even the nfl. I don't look at just the first round as the basis of a successful draft. Yes, we've gotten better. But we were so bad for so long that there was nowhere to go but up. I look at the Braves and I get, I don't know, jealous? They're a player developmental machine. I have higher standards than most. I believe a good farm should yield both trade bait AND top-tier prospects or even competent major league contributors.

[witesoxfan]

I agree with most of this. The thing is, the mlb draft is 50 rounds. This isn't the nba or even the nfl. I don't look at just the first round as the basis of a successful draft. Yes, we've gotten better. But we were so bad for so long that there was nowhere to go but up. I look at the Braves and I get, I don't know, jealous? They're a player developmental machine. I have higher standards than most. I believe a good farm should yield both trade bait AND top-tier prospects or even competent major league contributors.

 

In other words, the Philadelphia Phillies, under both Gillick and Amaro Jr.

 

I think a point that gets overlooked all together is that the Phillies traded Gio Gonzalez and Gavin Floyd for Freddy Garcia. Freddy Garcia made like 11 starts for them, and he was terrible. And they still had the talent and eventually money to be able to put together the rotation they have now.

 

[bigruss]

That's the goal IMO, to be able to make mistakes like that and still have not only the depth, but players with the ability to have a high impact. Every team will make mistakes, it's baseball, but the best teams have the depth to overcome mistakes, and the ability to continuously replenish that depth.

 

The Sox chose this path this offseason because they didn't have the depth to refill the roster with young players, and didn't have enough tools on the MLB roster to trade to help replenish and position themselves to succeed in a year or two. They really were forced to spend this offseason, and unless they get more talent in the minors and win this year they are looking at a very bleak future, they have very little room for error right now.

[Jordan4life_2007]

In other words, the Philadelphia Phillies, under both Gillick and Amaro Jr.

 

I think a point that gets overlooked all together is that the Phillies traded Gio Gonzalez and Gavin Floyd for Freddy Garcia. Freddy Garcia made like 11 starts for them, and he was terrible. And they still had the talent and eventually money to be able to put together the rotation they have now.

 

Exactly.

 

 

That's the goal IMO, to be able to make mistakes like that and still have not only the depth, but players with the ability to have a high impact. Every team will make mistakes, it's baseball, but the best teams have the depth to overcome mistakes, and the ability to continuously replenish that depth.

 

The Sox chose this path this offseason because they didn't have the depth to refill the roster with young players, and didn't have enough tools on the MLB roster to trade to help replenish and position themselves to succeed in a year or two. They really were forced to spend this offseason, and unless they get more talent in the minors and win this year they are looking at a very bleak future, they have very little room for error right now.

 

Yeah, I get a kick out of KW and Jerry wanting a cookie because they decided to "go for it" this year. We've been going for it every year at the expense of the future. If they had decided to go with the kids, what exactly would we be throwing out there? Jordan Danks and his Rob Deer-like K-rate with Juan Pierre's power?

 

[witesoxfan]

It's awesome that they're going for it this year, yet it was also the first winter where they didn't make a significant trade whatsoever (I know, Linebrink, whatever). Usually Williams is adding someone through a trade, or multiple people, but this year it was all free agent signings. I don't think it's an indication of how much they like the prospects in the system nor the lack of value of the prospects in the system (though I think both are true) but instead just that their needs lined up really well with the strengths of the free agent market this year. I do think it's a sign of progress that Morel is still in the organization, and quite frankly it's good that Viciedo is as well. Both of those two hold trade value and Williams could almost certainly have made the team better by trading them at some point, yet did not. I think there is a bit of a focus on building from within a bit more, but going outside the organization when you need something.

[Jordan4life_2007]

It's awesome that they're going for it this year, yet it was also the first winter where they didn't make a significant trade whatsoever (I know, Linebrink, whatever). Usually Williams is adding someone through a trade, or multiple people, but this year it was all free agent signings. I don't think it's an indication of how much they like the prospects in the system nor the lack of value of the prospects in the system (though I think both are true) but instead just that their needs lined up really well with the strengths of the free agent market this year. I do think it's a sign of progress that Morel is still in the organization, and quite frankly it's good that Viciedo is as well. Both of those two hold trade value and Williams could almost certainly have made the team better by trading them at some point, yet did not. I think there is a bit of a focus on building from within a bit more, but going outside the organization when you need something.

 

I don't even think Kenny would trade Morel and leave us with a 44-year old and the hot garbage that is Teahen as our only 3B. I will say the organization appears to be totally committed to Viciedo. Which is a good thing. Still, the lack of organizational depth is very troubling. I know you can say this about a lot of teams. But any injury to anyone from the big league roster and we're f***ed.

Edited February 15, 2011 by Jordan4life

[witesoxfan]

I don't even think Kenny would trade Morel and leave us with a 44-year old and the hot garbage that is Teahen as our only 3B. I will say the organization appears to be totally committed to Viciedo. Which is a good thing. Still, the lack of organizational depth is very troubling. I know you can say this about a lot of teams. But any injury to anyone from the big league roster and we're f***ed.

 

I know it's with a caveat, but really, I think the main two spots where the Sox would be screwed if they suffered an injury are SS and CF. In both LF and RF, you going to get slightly less production via WAR, but you lose defense and speed with Pierre and a huge amount of power with Quentin. At 3B, Viciedo is not good defensively (but from what I saw, better than Teahen, which is like saying Blake Lively is hotter than Roseanne Barr) but is a better hitter than Morel, so I would say you probably lose a bit overall but, again, nothing significant. And, over a short time period, I think Viciedo can atleast help soften the blow of losing Konerko or Dunn. The backup situation for CF is very ugly (Danks or Milledge or De Aza? ugh) and it's even worse at SS (either hope Escobar can sling the leather like we've heard or hope Vizquel is solid). I'm on the fence regarding the catcher's position, as I think Flowers can be adequate offensively (meaning .220/.300/.380, though his power may be a bit better than that) but I have no idea what effect he would have on the pitching staff.

 

If the Sox lose a starting pitcher, it gets pretty ugly too, so all you can do is hope someone in the minors steps up and pitches well enough that they can be decent in a fill-in appearance. I also fear losing a late inning reliever, but I honestly have enough faith in Crain/Thornton/Santos/Sale that I don't worry too much.