Twins could be looking to deal Liriano

[WCSox]

I don't know about Mauer. Those knees are a disaster waiting to happen.

 

Agreed. He should be transitioning over to 1B at this point in his career, to take the stress off of his knees.

 

[witesoxfan]

Agreed. He should be transitioning over to 1B at this point in his career, to take the stress off of his knees.

 

Perhaps in 2014, but there have been plenty of catchers who have played throughout their age 35-37 season behind the plate and been just fine. I don't think you move him until you have to, even if it is "too late" at that point.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I'm not sure it's a great move to trade Liriano right now (that all depends on the return) but it would be hard to put up a strong argument against it. Trading him is definitely the safe move. It would keep them from potentially paying big money to a hurt starter, and while it would hurt their chances of contention in 2011, it may not hurt them in the long term, and it may neither hurt them much in terms of attendance in 2011. The new ballpark gives them a window to work with where they may be able to make an unpopular move or two if they have to and still count on people showing up. And if things work out where the Sox are rebuilding in 2012 or 2013, then they could conceivably hope to get a few guys who are ready now and would be ready to contribute at a time when the Sox are much weaker, making their path to the division title that much easier (probably just Detroit).

Edited February 11, 2011 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[joeynach]

Because Joe Mauer hit .327/.402/.469 and it was generally considered by the greater baseball community as a down year.

 

Down year, thats exactly what his 162 game average is!!!

[Jerksticks]

 

Man this is great news. This can't help morale at all. What a message to the younger Twins players: play your ass off and we'll probably trade you since you're just a commodity after all, not a member of the family. This is the first chink in the armor, IMO, simply because players are gonna be thinking about their own stats more instead of winning. Just a hunch, but i don't see this being anything but bad news for them.

 

And Kyle Gibson, Shmyle Gibson. If they trade Liriano they still have to trot out the Mustache, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Duensing, Perkins...blah blah...I think we smoke the Twins this year.

Edited February 12, 2011 by Jerksticks

[WCSox]

Perhaps in 2014, but there have been plenty of catchers who have played throughout their age 35-37 season behind the plate and been just fine. I don't think you move him until you have to, even if it is "too late" at that point.

 

Except that most catchers tend to not be productive hitters in their mid-30s. Look at Piazza, Johnny Bench, and I-Rod. Thurman Munson's numbers began to drop in his early 30s, a season and a half before his death. Fisk is the notable exception.

 

If you have a decent defensive catcher who calls a good game and his "meh" with the bat (A.J.), then I'm cool with running him out there behind the plate until his knees crumble. Because that's where the vast majority of his value lies. But when you have a hitting talent like Mauer AND owe him $100M+ of guaranteed money, you make his health and longevity a priority.

Edited February 12, 2011 by WCSox

[Dick Allen]

Man this is great news. This can't help morale at all. What a message to the younger Twins players: play your ass off and we'll probably trade you since you're just a commodity after all, not a member of the family. This is the first chink in the armor, IMO, simply because players are gonna be thinking about their own stats more instead of winning. Just a hunch, but i don't see this being anything but bad news for them.

 

And Kyle Gibson, Shmyle Gibson. If they trade Liriano they still have to trot out the Mustache, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Duensing, Perkins...blah blah...I think we smoke the Twins this year.

There was a mass exodus with Minnesota's bullpen. I believe if the White Sox can get over the mental block they have had with the Twins, and no one will ever convince me this has been nothing but a mental block, which may be easier due to the losses the Twins have suffered, and counting on a guy like Pavano to produce again, the Sox could have a cakewalk in the division. Detroit picked up a couple of nice players, but Maggs is a year older and going to be slower.........they just seem to be missing something to me.

[witesoxfan]

Down year, thats exactly what his 162 game average is!!!

 

And that 162 game average includes his .783 OPS from his first full year of starting.

 

He put up a 1.000+ OPS in 09, which is too much, but I think he's about a .925 true OPS talent. His home runs were a bit down last year and I think that could certainly improve.

 

Point blank, cut away all the bulls***, Joe Mauer is a career .327 hitter, he gets on base better than 40% of the time, he has a bit of power too, he plays good defense, calls a good game, and can move a little bit. I can safely say that there is only one hitter in the entire game that I would take over him, and that is Albert Pujols. If you disagree, that's fine; it's a simple difference of opinion.

 

Except that most catchers tend to not be productive hitters in their mid-30s. Look at Piazza, Johnny Bench, and I-Rod. Thurman Munson's numbers began to drop in his early 30s, a season and a half before his death. Fisk is the notable exception.

 

If you have a decent defensive catcher who calls a good game and his "meh" with the bat (A.J.), then I'm cool with running him out there behind the plate until his knees crumble. Because that's where the vast majority of his value lies. But when you have a hitting talent like Mauer AND owe him $100M+ of guaranteed money, you make his health and longevity a priority.

 

Ivan Rodriguez really fell off in 2005, and I seem to recall him going from pretty bulky to a toothpick over the course of an offseason. He also didn't have good on-base skills, so once his bat started to slow down, his other batting skills were exposed further and his game deteriorated quickly. Piazza remained a really good hitter his entire career. His knees were a problem, but the two injuries that sidelined him the longest were a torn groin and a sprained shoulder.

 

I think at some point they consider moving him, but until it actually shows an effect on his game - whether through injuries, or his game falling off, or another catcher plowing through the minors, or whatever - he should remain at catcher.

 

[joeynach]

And that 162 game average includes his .783 OPS from his first full year of starting.

 

He put up a 1.000+ OPS in 09, which is too much, but I think he's about a .925 true OPS talent. His home runs were a bit down last year and I think that could certainly improve.

 

No bull man but I like to let the numbers speak for themselves. According to baseball-reference, in 3092 career at bats Mauer owns a career 162 game average of .327/.407/.481/.888 with 16HR and 81 RBI. Those are the facts. In fact aside from a slight difference in batting average its almost the same as Chipper Jones career 162 game average of .306/.405/.536/.941 with 21 HR and 107 RBI. And if you are a saber guy right off the bat you say Chipper Jones is a much more valuable player becuase batting average is hogwash and OPS is everything, Jones OPS is 52 points higher than Mauer's. Chipper Jones has had a fine paying career, but the highest he was ever payed was $16M annually in 2005 as part of a 6 year 90M contract he signed in 2001. Since then he has had average salary of about $12M. And after all that Mauer gets an 8 year $184M contract becuase of what, hes a catcher, becuase he went to HS and grew up in St. Paul, becuase Twins fans wanted the local favorite around forever. Thats awful becuase he is NOT EVEN AS GOOD OF A HITTER AS CHIPPER JONES!

[Jordan4life_2007]

No bull man but I like to let the numbers speak for themselves. According to baseball-reference, in 3092 career at bats Mauer owns a career 162 game average of .327/.407/.481/.888 with 16HR and 81 RBI. Those are the facts. In fact aside from a slight difference in batting average its almost the same as Chipper Jones career 162 game average of .306/.405/.536/.941 with 21 HR and 107 RBI. And if you are a saber guy right off the bat you say Chipper Jones is a much more valuable player becuase batting average is hogwash and OPS is everything, Jones OPS is 52 points higher than Mauer's. Chipper Jones has had a fine paying career, but the highest he was ever payed was $16M annually in 2005 as part of a 6 year 90M contract he signed in 2001. Since then he has had average salary of about $12M. And after all that Mauer gets an 8 year $184M contract becuase of what, hes a catcher, becuase he went to HS and grew up in St. Paul, becuase Twins fans wanted the local favorite around forever. Thats awful becuase he is NOT EVEN AS GOOD OF A HITTER AS CHIPPER JONES!

 

Yes, a sizable portion of his overall value comes from being a catcher. Catchers just don't do what this guy does for the most part. And he's a + defender. So we're not talking Piazza here, who was all bat and horrible defensively. Mauer's line the last five years (since his first battle title): .334/.416/.491/.906. That would be a premium slash line for any position outside of 1B. But to get those kinda numbers from the most forgiving offensive position on the field? Unheard of in recent memory. And I don't think it's a stretch to say he could even expand on those numbers if he was free from the daily grind that is catching. Mauer is a special, special talent. The Twins did what they had to do.

[Eminor3rd]

So do the Twins have anything on the way up in terms of minor league starting pitching? It seems like they've had the same batch of 5-6 guys as their starters since at least 2008.

 

I think Kyle Gibson is about ready.

[Eminor3rd]

Except that most catchers tend to not be productive hitters in their mid-30s. Look at Piazza, Johnny Bench, and I-Rod. Thurman Munson's numbers began to drop in his early 30s, a season and a half before his death. Fisk is the notable exception.

 

If you have a decent defensive catcher who calls a good game and his "meh" with the bat (A.J.), then I'm cool with running him out there behind the plate until his knees crumble. Because that's where the vast majority of his value lies. But when you have a hitting talent like Mauer AND owe him $100M+ of guaranteed money, you make his health and longevity a priority.

 

The problem is that a .330 avg with 12 homers and no speed isn't worth anywhere close to $23m in any other position on the diamond, especially not 1B or DH.

[Jerksticks]

No bull man but I like to let the numbers speak for themselves. According to baseball-reference, in 3092 career at bats Mauer owns a career 162 game average of .327/.407/.481/.888 with 16HR and 81 RBI. Those are the facts. In fact aside from a slight difference in batting average its almost the same as Chipper Jones career 162 game average of .306/.405/.536/.941 with 21 HR and 107 RBI. And if you are a saber guy right off the bat you say Chipper Jones is a much more valuable player becuase batting average is hogwash and OPS is everything, Jones OPS is 52 points higher than Mauer's. Chipper Jones has had a fine paying career, but the highest he was ever payed was $16M annually in 2005 as part of a 6 year 90M contract he signed in 2001. Since then he has had average salary of about $12M. And after all that Mauer gets an 8 year $184M contract becuase of what, hes a catcher, becuase he went to HS and grew up in St. Paul, becuase Twins fans wanted the local favorite around forever. Thats awful becuase he is NOT EVEN AS GOOD OF A HITTER AS CHIPPER JONES!

 

IF you are a saber guy! I think Mauer is light years better than Jones at being able to hit what the pitcher gives him. Most guys need their pitch or a mistake to get a hit. The way Mauer just effortlessly flips balls everywhere is a once in a generation kinda thing. Jones is uber-valuable because he's deadly from both sides, but in no way do I think he makes the game look as easy as Mauer. Both studs obviously- I dunno who I'd rather build a franchise around. I might pick Jones even though I think Mauer plays the game at his own level. Mauer owns the batter's box.

[witesoxfan]

The problem is that a .330 avg with 12 homers and no speed isn't worth anywhere close to $23m in any other position on the diamond, especially not 1B or DH.

 

As J4L pointed out, Mauer's put up a .900 OPS over the last 3-4 years, so he's a little more than some s***ty singles hitter. On top of that, he's actually 35 for 46 in his career stealing bases, and that was 34 for 42 before this season. On top of that, he also has 16 career triples too. He's not Paul Konerko.

 

If the White Sox had Joe Mauer, and let him go rather than signing him to an extension, I imagine people would be quite upset. This isn't like losing Danks to free agency - Danks isn't destined to be one of the best starting pitchers of all time.

 

Put it this way - Joe Mauer has been worth 28 WAR over the past 5 seasons, which is good for 6th best in baseball during that timeframe. The 5 in front of him are Pujols, Utley, Holliday, Hanley, and Wright. Over the past 3 years, he's put up 18.8, which is good for 5th. The 4 above him are Pujols, Utley, Longoria, and Hanley. Also over that same 3 year period, his wOBA is .396 - 7th best in the majors.

 

I would say that .330/.410/.490/.900 with 12 homers is worth $23 million at several other positions. Hell, the Red Sox just gave $20 mill a year to Crawford, and his numbers are nowhere close to Mauer's.

 

If he continues hitting .330 and playing solid defense, his numbers will justify the contract.

 

 

[joeynach]

I would say that .330/.410/.490/.900 with 12 homers is worth $23 million at several other positions. Hell, the Red Sox just gave $20 mill a year to Crawford, and his numbers are nowhere close to Mauer's.

 

See this is where I have the problem, though I agree I would much rather have $23M for Mauer in comparison to $20M for Crawford. Mauer like you just posted above is more valuable, but the problem is I believe your comparing big overpay vs. big overpay. I dont think either guy is worth the sum they received. I think the free agent market vastly inflated Crawford thats for sure. The guys you compared Mauer to, Utley and Hanley, make $15M annually, the guy I compared him to, Chipper Jones, made $15M annually in his hay day. Crawford is not in those categories for sure and is vastly overpaid. Mauer didnt hit the FA market, just like Hanley and Utley, and they received $15M, but Mauer received $23M.........seems like on overpay either way you look at it.

[witesoxfan]

See this is where I have the problem, though I agree I would much rather have $23M for Mauer in comparison to $20M for Crawford. Mauer like you just posted above is more valuable, but the problem is I believe your comparing big overpay vs. big overpay. I dont think either guy is worth the sum they received. I think the free agent market vastly inflated Crawford thats for sure. The guys you compared Mauer to, Utley and Hanley, make $15M annually, the guy I compared him to, Chipper Jones, made $15M annually in his hay day. Crawford is not in those categories for sure and is vastly overpaid. Mauer didnt hit the FA market, just like Hanley and Utley, and they received $15M, but Mauer received $23M.........seems like on overpay either way you look at it.

 

Chipper Jones was also bad defensively wherever he played, compared to mediocre to good defensively for Mauer, and did not play a premium position. He was also making that money anywhere from 5-10 years ago, so inflation does come into play. Hanley Ramirez signed that contract in his final year before arbitration, so that contract guaranteed him financial security at a slightly discounted rate. If he were to hit the open market, he'd get $20 million pretty easily (though he is also bad defensively). Utley did a pretty similar thing too, though he's great defensively. On top of that, they also signed those contracts 3 and 4 years ago respectively, so again, some inflation comes into play as well. They are underpaid relative to the market.

 

By the end of Mauer's career, there could be arguments made that he was the greatest catcher of all time (or injuries could derail his career, forever making people wonder "what if?"). If the Twins overpaid - I don't think they did but instead paid market value - they overpaid for the right player. I would assume you can agree with that.

[caulfield12]

And let's not forget the "hometown hero/Paul Bunyan" side of this...

 

They really had little choice but to give him that contract. Now, with the Cardinals and Pujols, that's a somewhat different story...because they would be giving Pujols contract dollars far into what could be the downside of his career in his 30's.

 

I can't remember what website does the "true financial value" analysis which incorporates souvenir sales/marketing "Q" ratings, etc., but the Mariners until recent years have always felt they were getting a good ROI on the Ichiro contract and this is definitely one of those situations.

 

Now a Morneau that's not healthy/productive or a Nathan that requires at least a year to work back to prior levels as the closer, that's going to hurt them a lot more than a down season for Mauer.

[Balta1701]

Now a Morneau that's not healthy/productive or a Nathan that requires at least a year to work back to prior levels as the closer, that's going to hurt them a lot more than a down season for Mauer.

Unless they have insurance on some of those contracts.

[thehugeunit]

Well that would be wise to sell high on him, but I can't see the Twins doing this at all... Why would they haha. Their problem has always been they don't have pitching, so unless they trade Liriano + for an ace why would they?

[Jack Parkman]

There was a mass exodus with Minnesota's bullpen. I believe if the White Sox can get over the mental block they have had with the Twins, and no one will ever convince me this has been nothing but a mental block, which may be easier due to the losses the Twins have suffered, and counting on a guy like Pavano to produce again, the Sox could have a cakewalk in the division. Detroit picked up a couple of nice players, but Maggs is a year older and going to be slower.........they just seem to be missing something to me.

I don't believe the Twins will miss a beat in their bullpen, they have this "magic twinkie dust" that they sprinkle over their players that causes them to do better than the guys they let go. A bunch of people thought the Twins were f***ed when they had to trade Santana, but they trot out these pitchers that most deem to be average like Blackburn, Slowey, and Baker and they still have and ERA between 3.70-4.20. While not great, good enough. Then you have guys like Duensing who pitch unbelievable for stretches when they really only have average stuff, but yet they pitch like an ace. I refuse to believe that the Twins will be anywhere but first or second place in this division until they finish third or worse for at least three consecutive years. They just have this magic about that team......during the regular season at least.

Edited February 12, 2011 by Elgin Slim

[WCSox]

I think at some point they consider moving him, but until it actually shows an effect on his game - whether through injuries, or his game falling off, or another catcher plowing through the minors, or whatever - he should remain at catcher.

 

By the time the years of wear and tear from playing catcher begin to affect his game, it'll be too late.

 

[witesoxfan]

By the time the years of wear and tear from playing catcher begin to affect his game, it'll be too late.

 

I strongly doubt that.

[Jordan4life_2007]

By the time the years of wear and tear from playing catcher begin to affect his game, it'll be too late.

 

I hope you're right. I just don't see it. Mauer is a fantastic athlete. As long as he doesn't have some debilitating injury, he'll be a force for quite some time.

[southsider2k5]

By the time the years of wear and tear from playing catcher begin to affect his game, it'll be too late.

 

Mauer has a history of knee problems. It is the reason that they have been talking about moving him away from catching since he got to the majors.

[caulfield12]

Let's see, the Twins have traded Johan Santana, Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza when they were important parts of the rotation.

 

They were looking to deal Slowey or Blackburn at different points last year as well because of the logjam in their rotation...and for salary/non-performance/injury reasons.

 

Off the top of my head, I can't remember if Carlos Silva left as a free agent or was traded. He was another of those classic guys who "overachieved" when pitching for the Twins.

 

Of course, in the middle of all that, you have Brad Radke bulldogging his way through a decade of pitching for them.