2011 AL Central Catch-All Thread

[LittleHurt05]

In the fangraphs world, he was worth $2.4 million last year and has already topped $10 million this year.

 

Those numbers are all relative to other players, not to actual real-life contracts.

 

Francoeur historically plays well his first season or so with a club, then gets comfortable and goes downhill.

[bigruss]

When you should get mad is if he's obviously blocking one of their up and coming young guys in the next year (a-la our OF with Viciedo). If that's not happening, then a few million won't hurt.

 

They had a $4 million option on him for 2012 which was almost certain to be picked up after the year he's had anyway.

We'll agree to disagree then, because I think it's a wasted resource unless they truly think he is in their future plans (which would be pretty scary).

[southsider2k5]

If it was for anything over $5 mill total in the extension then it was a bad move.

 

How about annually?

 

Royals_Report Bob Dutton

by mlbtraderumors

#Royals two-year deal with OF Jeff Francoeur is for $13.5 million. More at kcstar.com.

 

[Balta1701]

IF he performs like this then it's a good deal. But his record of performing like this is somewhat limited.

[LittleHurt05]

How about annually?

 

Royals_Report Bob Dutton

by mlbtraderumors

#Royals two-year deal with OF Jeff Francoeur is for $13.5 million. More at kcstar.com.

 

[High Mileage]

Good move by the Royals' FO. He's played well this year. He's not really blocking anybody in our system, so why not? He's a high character guy, his teammates love him, the fans love him, and it's not a ridiculous amount of money. Plus the guy is only still 27.

[Balta1701]

When you look at his numbers, there's nothing a priori unsustainable about them, .310 BABIP, for example. And he was always viewed to be a very talented guy. But there's still the Atlanta years to contend with, it just took a drop to a .275 BABIP to make him a non-tendered guy.

[High Mileage]

When you look at his numbers, there's nothing a priori unsustainable about them, .310 BABIP, for example. And he was always viewed to be a very talented guy. But there's still the Atlanta years to contend with, it just took a drop to a .275 BABIP to make him a non-tendered guy.

An argument could be made that he's having a career number. Obviously he hasn't come close to the 29 HR he hit in '06, but nearly everything else looks good. Don't even get me started on his arm, anybody that runs on him is an idiot. Period.

[Balta1701]

An argument could be made that he's having a career number. Obviously he hasn't come close to the 29 HR he hit in '06, but nearly everything else looks good. Don't even get me started on his arm, anybody that runs on him is an idiot. Period.

He doesn't seem to have much range out there, according to the advanced stats though, and both sites i've checked agree.

[LittleHurt05]

It wouldn't be a Royals signing without a column by Joe Posnanski:

 

Well, of course, I can’t help but jump in on the Royals signing Jeff Francoeur to a two-year, $13.5 million deal. I can’t help but jump in because Jeff Francoeur continues to be one of the most compelling players in baseball to me — a great guy, a flawed player, a clubhouse presence, a free-swinger, a guy who can’t help but attract people’s best hopes and deepest frustrations.

 

Ever since 2007 or so, even if you were only half paying attention, you could have predicted Jeff Francoeur’s future like so:

 

1. He would eventually be signed by the Dayton Moore’s Kansas City Royals.

2. He would probably have a decent year in his new surroundings … or at least a decent start.

3. The Royals, buoyed by that decent year/start, would then offer Francoeur too much money to stay.

 

All these have come to pass, though everyone involved has insisted that this was not a fait accompli. It has just worked out this way. The Royals just happened to have an outfield spot. He just happened to have a pretty good season. The Royals just happened to decide he was worth signing to a fairly sizable contract.

 

 

 

From 2007 to 2010, Jeff Francoeur was a negative-WAR player. That means — assuming you buy into this statistic — that over three big league seasons, he offered somewhat less value than some outfielders drinking away their sorrows in Class AAA. Even if you don’t buy into the statistic, you certainly can’t help but buy into the numbers: He hit .256 with a .301 on-base percentage and a .389 slugging percentage. For a corner outfielder, that’s beyond unacceptable. This is why he played for three different teams in those three years. The Royals, I suspect, didn’t have much competition when they signed Francoeur for $2.5 to $3 million this year.

 

But there was some reason to hope that Francoeur could have a decent season. For one thing, Francoeur has shown a knack for good starts with new teams. He was so good when he was called up to Atlanta in the first place that he made the cover of SI. He was so good when he went to the Mets that they brought him back. He was so good when he went to Texas, that they put him on their postseason roster. If precedent held, he would come to Kansas City and get off to a good start, and sure enough 30 games into the season he was hitting above .300 and, if memory serves, leading the American League in total bases.

 

He then went into death-defying slump, as he can do. From the middle of May until the end of June he didn’t hit at all. His average tumbled. His slugging percentage tumbled. Everything tumbled. But there was STILL some reason to hope Francoeur could finish with a decent season. Three reasons, actually:

 

1. The Royals were going to keep playing him no matter what.

2. Kansas City can be a very supportive market for likable players like Francoeur.

3. Kauffman Stadium is a good place to hit.

 

The playing every day part helps for obvious reasons. The supportive market part, well, that’s speculation and I’m not sure it helps a lot, but Francoeur has talked a lot about it. The third part is big: People tend not to think of Kauffman Stadium as a good hitters park because so few home runs are hit there. And that’s true: It’s not a good HOME RUN park. But it’s a good hitters park with its comfortable hitters background, it’s big outfield gaps and so on. You can certainly see hints of it in Francoeur’s 2011 numbers:

 

Home: .293/.341/.483

Road: ..259/.317/.441

 

In any case, you look up now in mid-August, and Francoeur is having a nice year. He’s actually slugging higher that at any point since his rookie season. He’s 2.2 wins on the good side of WAR. His 35 doubles places him fifth in the league. He has played pretty solid defense, I think, and it’s fun to watch him throw. He has a great arm. On top of that, everyone continues to like him — or so it seems to an outsider. With all that happening, the question wasn’t if the Royals would sign him, and the question wasn’t when either. The question was: How much? Two years at $13.5 million is a bit higher than I expected. But, hey, the Royals have money to spend. I’d rather Francoeur have it than it just go back into the pockets of ownership.

 

So, it had to happen, and it did happen, and now the question is: How will it turn out? I don’t think there’s a simple answer here. The one indisputably sad part here is that this seems an admission by the Royals that, even with their golden farm system, they don’t have a single outfield prospect who is almost major league ready. Francoeur’s having a nice year, but Melky Cabrera is having an even better one, which tells you that he will be coming back. And left fielder Alex Gordon is actually having a sensational year, maybe the best year nobody is noticing in the American League.*

 

*How good a year is Gordon having? Well, there are people trying now to inject Michael Young into the MVP race. As I Tweeted the other day: That would set back sabermetrics 25 years. Anyway …

 

Baseball Reference WAR

Alex Gordon: 4.0

Michael Young: 2.5

 

Fangraphs WAR

Alex Gordon: 4.6

Michael Young: 3.6

 

 

That means there will probably be no outfield opening in Kansas City in 2012. The Royals got outfielder Lorenzo Cain in the Zack Greinke deal, and he has played well in Class AAA, but the Royals apparently are not buying in. Many people I talked with thought that Wil Myers was the best prospect in the Royals system — better even than Eric Hosmer — but he’s struggled this year with injuries and strikeouts and changing positions and apparently is now on a slower track. Other promising outfield prospects — including mega-hyped first round pick and local product Bubba Starling — are years away.

 

So, with no prospect pushing the Royals, they felt comfortable giving right field to Francoeur for the next two years. I understand it. I don’t think this is a terrible move by the Royals. It’s more like a “Why not?” move.

 

But I have to admit: I don’t think it will work out very well. Two reasons:

 

One, I suspect that Francoeur’s numbers will dip. I hope I’m wrong, but there’s just a lot of evidence there that Francoeur is not a guy you can play every day in the big leagues. Over his career, he’s hit lefties and not hit righties. Even this year, he’s basically built his season off hitting lefties. But with a pretty hefty two year contract, the Royals will play him every day, and I just think that over the long haul he will probably get back to being around replacement level. I have a feeling that in 2013 especially, that contract will feel uncomfortable. Like I say, I hope I’m wrong.

 

Two, this is precisely the sort of uninspiring move the Royals have made for 15 years. They stick a Scott Podsednik … Jason Kendall … Rick Ankiel … Jose Guillen … Mike Jacobs … Ross Gload … Mark Grudzielanek … Reggie Sanders … Doug Mientkiewicz … Terrence Long … Matt Stairs … Tony Graffanino … Michael Tucker … I can keep going … they stick one of these veteran types out there and they hope for the best. They hope for:

 

A. A comeback year.

B. Another good year.

C. Veteran leadership

D. Professionalism

E. A winning attitude

F. Grittiness

G. All of the above.

 

Francoeur may be different. He’s not old. He won’t mail it in now that he’s got his contract. He does seem to make the players around him happier. But, it just seems to me that the Royals are supposed to be this young, exciting, vibrant team on the move. And when you sign Jeff Francoeur to a two-year deal, you are just kind of standing still.

 

 

 

[LittleHurt05]

Your right fielder for the Twins tonight: Joseph Patrick Mauer

[flavum]

So who wins the division, Tigers or Indians?

 

Tigers 65-58:

Chi 3-3-6

Cle 6-3-9

KC 4-2-6

Min 3-3-6

Bal 4-0-4

TB 0-4-4

Oak 0-4-4

20-19-39

 

Indians 62-58:

Chi 4-4-8

Det 3-6-9

KC 3-3-6

Min 4-3-7

Oak 4-0-4

Sea 5-0-5

Tex 0-3-3

23-19-42

 

[DirtySox]

So who wins the division, Tigers or Indians?

 

Tigers 65-58:

Chi 3-3-6

Cle 6-3-9

KC 4-2-6

Min 3-3-6

Bal 4-0-4

TB 0-4-4

Oak 0-4-4

20-19-39

 

Indians 62-58:

Chi 4-4-8

Det 3-6-9

KC 3-3-6

Min 4-3-7

Oak 4-0-4

Sea 5-0-5

Tex 0-3-3

23-19-42

 

 

Tigers.

 

Though I'd prefer the Indians. A much more likable and entertaining team in my eyes.

 

[LittleHurt05]

So who wins the division, Tigers or Indians?

 

Tigers 65-58:

Chi 3-3-6

Cle 6-3-9

KC 4-2-6

Min 3-3-6

Bal 4-0-4

TB 0-4-4

Oak 0-4-4

20-19-39

 

Indians 62-58:

Chi 4-4-8

Det 3-6-9

KC 3-3-6

Min 4-3-7

Oak 4-0-4

Sea 5-0-5

Tex 0-3-3

23-19-42

 

White Sox

[Balta1701]

That Indians schedule remains brutal.

[southsider2k5]

tribeinsider Cleveland Indians

Indians today release OF Austin Kearns after clearing waivers. Hit .200 with 2HR & 7RBI in 52 games.

 

 

[Harry Chappas]

If the Sox can take two this weekend they are in good shape as the Tigers 4 gamer in Tampa is a tough lookign series.

 

This thing never stops going round and round.

 

 

[flavum]

5-0 Tigers. Lookin' like a sweep.

 

I said it weeks ago...the Tigers will clinch with at least a week left in the season and win 87-89 games.

[Balta1701]

5-0 Tigers. Lookin' like a sweep.

 

I said it weeks ago...the Tigers will clinch with at least a week left in the season and win 87-89 games.

Assuming Porcello doesn't fall apart, the Tigers will be the 2nd team in the bigs with 3 12+ game winners (after, of course, Philly).

 

[fathom]

I said it weeks ago...the Tigers will clinch with at least a week left in the season and win 87-89 games.

 

Yep, I agree...easily the most talented team in the AL Central. I still think they'll be a lot more dangerous in the postseason than people give them credit for.

[Balta1701]

Yep, I agree...easily the most talented team in the AL Central. I still think they'll be a lot more dangerous in the postseason than people give them credit for.

And Rick Porcello would like to remind you about where their weakness is.

[fathom]

And Rick Porcello would like to remind you about where their weakness is.

 

And he won't be pitching in the postseason

[Balta1701]

And he won't be pitching in the postseason

Because the Tigers will pitch Verlander on 2 days rest?

[fathom]

Because the Tigers will pitch Verlander on 2 days rest?

 

Verlander, Scherzer, Fister would be their top 3, and I bet they'd go with Penny over Porcello if needed.

[witesoxfan]

Verlander, Scherzer, Fister would be their top 3, and I bet they'd go with Penny over Porcello if needed.

 

Doug Fister is not a good pitcher. Brad Penny isn't either. I don't think they'd stand a chance in hell getting past Boston.