Heads22 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Last year was not a strong year for the DH position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leonard Zelig Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Feb 20, 2011 -> 08:15 PM) You say this all the time. Just because the supposed strength of the team underachieved doesn't mean you can't compensate in other areas. Kotsay was a joke. Everybody knew it before the season. He reinforced that with his pathetic performance. Thing is I'm not mad at him. That was all Ozzie and KW. What available player could have been acquired in place of Kotsay that would have made up the 6 game difference? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Feb 21, 2011 -> 09:02 AM) What available player could have been acquired in place of Kotsay that would have made up the 6 game difference? This JimThome guy was out there and wanted to come back to Chicago. Vlad was out there. Hell, a year of Johnny Damon would've sufficed. To make a guy your primary DH when he was 10 seconds away from being DFAd before scooping him up from superstar Brian Anderson is indefensible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Feb 21, 2011 -> 09:10 AM) This JimThome guy was out there and wanted to come back to Chicago. Vlad was out there. Hell, a year of Johnny Damon would've sufficed. To make a guy your primary DH when he was 10 seconds away from being DFAd before scooping him up from superstar Brian Anderson is indefensible. You deserve another round of these... :notworthy :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 QUOTE (Ranger @ Feb 20, 2011 -> 04:46 PM) No doubt they're better, but it isn't why they lost. Pitching (especially the bullpen in the last couple of months) screwed them last year more than anything else, and this year the outcome will again rest mostly on pitching. The 2010 outcome really had very little to do with Kotsay. I don't disagree with this at all. I don't know if the rotating DH was the biggest problem for the team last year, but it certainly was a decision that drew harsh criticism from about this time last year until Dunn was signed. Take away that glaring "oh my god how can they think this will ever work?!" and it requires a little more thought and analysis to criticize problems, failures and weak points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 21, 2011 -> 09:07 AM) There are actually 3 significant drop-offs, with Kansas City to Chicago being by far the smallest. The drop-off from Texas to New York is 59 points, the aforementioned "small" 27 point drop-off from KC to Chicago, and then a monstrosity of an 81 point drop-off from LAA to Seattle. I don't think these drop-offs are exactly coincidental in nature either. In the case of the first 4 teams, they all had mostly full-time DHs - Ortiz, Scott, Thome, and Guerrero. The next set - New York, Cleveland, and Kansas City - each had better players DHing, but lost some time for whatever reason, and also used it to give other players games off. The next 6 teams shuffled the DH position to give players days off and try to work matchups, and it would appear as though that concept simply does not work. And then the final group in Seattle just shows total offensive ineptitude. In summation, I think the Sox are very, very smart in going with a full-time DH. It will add to the overall effectiveness of the lineup and gives them an advantage over quite a few teams (and hopefully the Twins too...Thome has to fall off at some point, doesn't he?) Great post wite Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leonard Zelig Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Feb 21, 2011 -> 09:10 AM) This JimThome guy was out there and wanted to come back to Chicago. Vlad was out there. Hell, a year of Johnny Damon would've sufficed. To make a guy your primary DH when he was 10 seconds away from being DFAd before scooping him up from superstar Brian Anderson is indefensible. I know you like saber stats, ans none of those players WAR would have offset Kotsay's enough to make up 6 games in the standings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Feb 21, 2011 -> 10:52 AM) I know you like saber stats, ans none of those players WAR would have offset Kotsay's enough to make up 6 games in the standings. Yeah but you can't just replace player A with player B in a vacuum. What about the impact of teammates if you have a certain player, say Kotsay, in your lineup? Are guys pressing more and popping out or grounding into double plays because they know Kotsay is on deck? Having a huge hole like that in your lineup ultimately affects other players as well and conversely should have a positive impact when you sub him for a player of Dunn's caliber. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Feb 21, 2011 -> 11:56 AM) Yeah but you can't just replace player A with player B in a vacuum. What about the impact of teammates if you have a certain player, say Kotsay, in your lineup? Are guys pressing more and popping out or grounding into double plays because they know Kotsay is on deck? Having a huge hole like that in your lineup ultimately affects other players as well and conversely should have a positive impact when you sub him for a player of Dunn's caliber. If nothing else, it would have made the last month of the season more interesting, because we wouldn't have been out of the race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Feb 21, 2011 -> 10:52 AM) I know you like saber stats, ans none of those players WAR would have offset Kotsay's enough to make up 6 games in the standings. Swap Thome and Kotsay with the Twins--what's their record, what's the Sox? It's an unanswerable question, but it still highlights how bad of an idea the rotating DH with Kotsay was. Whether it cost the division is immaterial, and I'm very happy that KW corrected this problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 QUOTE (Heads22 @ Feb 21, 2011 -> 08:22 AM) Last year was not a strong year for the DH position. It wasn't a strong year for any position offensively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 (edited) QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Feb 21, 2011 -> 11:12 AM) Swap Thome and Kotsay with the Twins--what's their record, what's the Sox? It's an unanswerable question, but it still highlights how bad of an idea the rotating DH with Kotsay was. Whether it cost the division is immaterial, and I'm very happy that KW corrected this problem. It is answerable. Thome was worth 3.5 wins to the Twins, he would have gotten even more PA for the Sox. So he's at least worth 3 wins. Kotsay was worth none, hell, he could have had a negative effect. So that's a 3 win swing alone. Take Thome's 300 PAs away from the Twins and replace that with Kubel or whoever they had to have at DH (who had a bad year last season) and that's at least 2 fewer wins for the Twins. So 3 more wins for the Sox, two less for the Twins and the difference between the two teams is now 1 game. Or you can say that the swing between Thome and Kotsay was 4 wins, which would then put the Sox in a dead tie with Minnesota. Edited February 21, 2011 by chw42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3E8 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 By both FanGraphs' and B-R's value systems, the '10 difference between Kotsay and Thome was over 4 wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 That only works if you take WAR as an absolute number with no margin of error and able to apply to different players moving to different teams, which has a whole host of variables in play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Feb 21, 2011 -> 01:17 PM) That only works if you take WAR as an absolute number with no margin of error and able to apply to different players moving to different teams, which has a whole host of variables in play. That's why I didn't use exact figures - like half wins. I think it ought to be kinda clear that Thome's impact on the Twins was at least 3 wins and that Kotsay didn't help the Sox at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yeah, I phrased it that way to include those uncertainties, not to toss out WAR/VORP etc. When I said it was unanswerable, I meant with any good amount of certainty or precision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Feb 20, 2011 -> 08:15 PM) You say this all the time. Just because the supposed strength of the team underachieved doesn't mean you can't compensate in other areas. Kotsay was a joke. Everybody knew it before the season. He reinforced that with his pathetic performance. Thing is I'm not mad at him. That was all Ozzie and KW. The team that won the World Series was in the lower half of MLB in OPS and most other offensive stats. They were in 1-4 places in most pitching and fielding stats. Pitching is always more important than offense. A better DH would not have made up the dfference in the 2nd half pitching especially the bullpen. With an unproven pen, it's performance will likely determine the success of this season as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 21, 2011 -> 02:30 PM) The team that won the World Series was in the lower half of MLB in OPS and most other offensive stats. They were in 1-4 places in most pitching and fielding stats. Pitching is always more important than offense. A better DH would not have made up the dfference in the 2nd half pitching especially the bullpen. With an unproven pen, it's performance will likely determine the success of this season as well. Here's a scary number that both agrees and disagrees with you. Team ERA as reliever, American League, 2010. 1. Tampa Bay, 3.33 2. Texas, 3.38 3. NY Yankees, 3.47 4. Minnesota Twins, 3.49 5. Chicago Sox, 3.73. The Sox actually had a bullpen that was *almost* good enough to hang with the rest of the league. But not quite. The 4 bullpens better than us made the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justBLAZE Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 QUOTE (chw42 @ Feb 21, 2011 -> 01:07 PM) It wasn't a strong year for any position offensively. Our 1st baseman Paul Konerko scoffs at your post! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Feb 21, 2011 -> 02:59 PM) Our 1st baseman Paul Konerko scoffs at your post! I was talking about the league, not individuals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 21, 2011 -> 01:57 PM) Here's a scary number that both agrees and disagrees with you. Team ERA as reliever, American League, 2010. 1. Tampa Bay, 3.33 2. Texas, 3.38 3. NY Yankees, 3.47 4. Minnesota Twins, 3.49 5. Chicago Sox, 3.73. The Sox actually had a bullpen that was *almost* good enough to hang with the rest of the league. But not quite. The 4 bullpens better than us made the playoffs. I think the bullpen has been improved overall, though I think the 7th and 8th will be a little more interesting this year. I hate these, but a quick comparison shows... Thornton/Sale > Jenks Crain Thornton/Sale Santos >= Santos Pena >= Pena Infante > Linebrink Ohman >>>>> RAAAANDY (and Threets) (only half joking about that last one, but Ohman is a superior option) Basically, I like the depth that this bullpen presents more than last years, and I think the 9th inning should be a little less stressful, but innings 7 and 8 should be a bit scarier. I'm OK with that, because atleast if you blow a lead in the 7th or 8th, you have the ability to come back. If the game gets blown open in the 5th, you have no chance to come back, and if the game gets blown in the 9th, you have a much lesser chance (or no chance if on the road) to come back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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