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2011 MLB Catch-All Thread


Balta1701

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QUOTE (chw42 @ May 17, 2011 -> 12:19 AM)
He has 4 WAR already? Holy s***.

When I declared Bautista would be worth his new $65M contract, I must admit even I did not think he would provide that value in ONE SEASON (currently on pace for 15.4 wins, over $70M).

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QUOTE (3E8 @ May 17, 2011 -> 09:20 AM)
When I declared Bautista would be worth his new $65M contract, I must admit even I did not think he would provide that value in ONE SEASON (currently on pace for 15.4 wins, over $70M).

 

LOL at any stat that puts a player's worth at $70M for one season.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ May 17, 2011 -> 09:43 AM)
LOL at any stat that puts a player's worth at $70M for one season.

 

Barry Bonds had a couple of seasons where he was worth a good $40-$50 million and deservedly so. He was the best offense you can buy.

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QUOTE (Jordan4life @ May 17, 2011 -> 08:06 AM)
Which kinda reinforces why RBI is a garbage stat.

 

I remember when Bautista had 7 HR and 10 RBI earlier this year. Nobody gets on in front of him.

 

Bonds also had a couple of years where he failed to get above 100 RBI or was just around that despite hitting 40+ HR. I think he only had 130 the year he hit 73.

Edited by chw42
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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ May 17, 2011 -> 09:43 AM)
LOL at any stat that puts a player's worth at $70M for one season.

Why is it funny. Year after year, teams pay about four and a half million on the free agent market per win. If I had said a guy on pace for a 1 WAR season and subsequently a $4.5M value, you wouldn't have batted an eye. A player producing 15 times that (not that Bautista will be there at the end of the season, it's just his current pace) would be worth 15 times as much.

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QUOTE (3E8 @ May 17, 2011 -> 11:35 AM)
Why is it funny. Year after year, teams pay about four and a half million on the free agent market per win. If I had said a guy on pace for a 1 WAR season and subsequently a $4.5M value, you wouldn't have batted an eye. A player producing 15 times that (not that Bautista will be there at the end of the season, it's just his current pace) would be worth 15 times as much.

 

Because the highest paid player in baseball makes $32 million, which is less than half of Bautista's "value". No one would even pay Bautista $30 million right now if he was a FA, how could he be worth over double that?

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QUOTE (chw42 @ May 17, 2011 -> 11:25 AM)
Barry Bonds had a couple of seasons where he was worth a good $40-$50 million and deservedly so. He was the best offense you can buy.

 

Then why was his highest salary less than half of that? How can you be worth a contract that nobody in the history of baseball has ever earned?

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ May 17, 2011 -> 11:44 AM)
Because the highest paid player in baseball makes $32 million, which is less than half of Bautista's "value". No one would even pay Bautista $30 million right now if he was a FA, how could he be worth over double that?

 

They would be silly not to pay him $30 million. The numbers he is putting up are comparable to Bonds and Pujols. He is really f'ing good.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ May 17, 2011 -> 11:57 AM)
They would be silly not to pay him $30 million. The numbers he is putting up are comparable to Bonds and Pujols. He is really f'ing good.

 

Considering how few teams seem willing to pay Pujols $30 million, I don't see how Bautista would definitely get that much.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ May 17, 2011 -> 11:53 AM)
Then why was his highest salary less than half of that? How can you be worth a contract that nobody in the history of baseball has ever earned?

You're right. Baseball teams are always paying their players exactly in accordance with their true value. Just ask Zito, Soriano, or Wells.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ May 17, 2011 -> 12:11 PM)
Considering how few teams seem willing to pay Pujols $30 million, I don't see how Bautista would definitely get that much.

 

I'm pretty sure teams are and will be willing to give Pujols $30 million. They will just think twice about giving it to him over 10 years.

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QUOTE (3E8 @ May 17, 2011 -> 12:20 PM)
You're right. Baseball teams are always paying their players exactly in accordance with their true value. Just ask Zito, Soriano, or Wells.

 

Well yeah, some players are overpaid, some are underpaid. Bautista is definitely more than earning his contract, I'm not doubting that.

 

I understand how the statistic works. I just think it's ridiculous if it just projects numbers that are incredibly unrealistic. He was so good this year, he should have made $65 million in one year. Then why doesn't his agent hold out next season and ask for that much? He's worth that much, right?

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ May 17, 2011 -> 01:36 PM)
Well yeah, some players are overpaid, some are underpaid. Bautista is definitely more than earning his contract, I'm not doubting that.

 

I understand how the statistic works. I just think it's ridiculous if it just projects numbers that are incredibly unrealistic. He was so good this year, he should have made $65 million in one year. Then why doesn't his agent hold out next season and ask for that much? He's worth that much, right?

Problem is...there's a risk inherent in every contract that the player won't repeat that ridiculous season the next year, and that risk gets priced into the deal.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 17, 2011 -> 01:11 PM)
Problem is...there's a risk inherent in every contract that the player won't repeat that ridiculous season the next year, and that risk gets priced into the deal.

 

I understand that and I guess that's part of my issue. This perceived value doesn't take any of that risk in to account or any other real financial issues into account. Money in baseball is very real, as are payroll limitations and everything else. Something's worth is what someone is willing to pay for it, and no baseball team is willing to pay a player $65 million for one season.

 

Put it this way: Say that he does continue this torrid pace and finishes this season worth the value of his entire contract. Then the next 4 years, he falls apart, and is nothing more than an average player. Do you think the Blue Jays will be happy with the deal? "He was worth the whole value in the first season, so never mind his average performance over the next four seasons when we still paid him $56 million" I doubt it.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ May 17, 2011 -> 01:40 PM)
Something's worth is what someone is willing to pay for it

 

I learned that lesson a long time ago and it applies to pretty much everything.

 

I can claim that my house is worth $1 million but there's no way anyone would pay that much for it.

 

 

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Don't get caught up in what he's actually making or debate what he should be making. It's more about what he's producing. From the amount of runs Bautista is creating, we can estimate how many wins are generated. And from there, put a monetary value on how much that many wins typically costs a team via free agency. That is how his value to a baseball team is determined. Not by his salary. And the win value in dollars wasn't created to suggest that is exactly how a player should be compensated.

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I get the premise and am not trying to turn this into some huge deal. I still just think it's funny to say a player is worth financially almost double the largest contract given ever in baseball. Money is such a big deal in constructing teams, so I think it should be kept in such realistic terms. The base stat WAR makes much more sense, it's not exactly wins in the standings, but it's close enough.

 

That being said, I can agree Bautista has turned himself into a Pujols/Bonds type hitter, clean or not.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ May 17, 2011 -> 02:08 PM)
I get the premise and am not trying to turn this into some huge deal. I still just think it's funny to say a player is worth financially almost double the largest contract given ever in baseball. Money is such a big deal in constructing teams, so I think it should be kept in such realistic terms.

It is funny to say that, because you are comparing apples and oranges. Most contracts given to good players are multi-year, and as Balta said earlier, take the possibilities of injury and performance decline into account. It would be foolish for a team to pay a player multiple years assuming no injury will occur, and the player will outperform his career averages every season. You cannot compare a one-year WAR dollar value to one salary year of a long term contract as you continue to do.

 

And Bautista is on pace to have the highest single-season OPS+ in the history of baseball. That is why if you extrapolate based on his current pace, you end up with unprecedented figures. The money in these WAR value equations is kept in the most realistic of terms. It is based on extensive research and data analysis. Just because you get a high dollar value for one season, does not mean a play can command that amount on a per year basis in a long-term contract.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ May 17, 2011 -> 12:36 PM)
Well yeah, some players are overpaid, some are underpaid. Bautista is definitely more than earning his contract, I'm not doubting that.

 

I understand how the statistic works. I just think it's ridiculous if it just projects numbers that are incredibly unrealistic. He was so good this year, he should have made $65 million in one year. Then why doesn't his agent hold out next season and ask for that much? He's worth that much, right?

 

Cause he's already under contract, lol.

 

And I doubt anybody uses WAR dollar values to negotiate contracts. It's just there to see whether or not a team got a good amount from their dollar in the longterm.

Edited by chw42
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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ May 17, 2011 -> 03:50 PM)
I guess I am just taking all the numbers a little too literally, but when you say that a player is worth his 5 year, $65M contract in one season, I can't help but question how off base that sounds IMO.

 

It's more of a statistical anomaly through small sample size. He may end up having an OPS+ of 200, but there's no way he ends up with 1.300+ OPS this year. He's not quite that good.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ May 17, 2011 -> 05:35 PM)
It's more of a statistical anomaly through small sample size. He may end up having an OPS+ of 200, but there's no way he ends up with 1.300+ OPS this year. He's not quite that good.

Ya but what if he is?

 

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