Dunn to hit third in White Sox spring opener

[witesoxfan]

All good for conversation... Might I suggest however that Dunn is even slower than Konerko and can eat a bag of raw meat before getting home vs. Rios, who has speed. Doesnt matter if he has a higher OBP if he can't score from 1B. Just saying, think he is a true clean-up guy and you protect him with TCQ until Ginger Kid's prophesy comes true and then you put Rios or Beckham in the 6-hole

 

Dunn is actually not that slow. He's not fast, but he's stolen 59 bases in his career. They were all early in his career because he hasn't successfully stolen a base since 2008, so he has slowed down, but it's not like Konerko is getting faster.

 

So, yeah, you can suggest that Dunn is slower than Konerko, but you'd be wrong.

 

(you also don't have to be moving quickly when the ball goes over the fence)

 

/obligatory

[sircaffey]

In all of MLB, only Bengie Molina and Herm Schneider are slower than leadfooted Konerko.

[shago]

Dunn is actually not that slow. He's not fast, but he's stolen 59 bases in his career. They were all early in his career because he hasn't successfully stolen a base since 2008, so he has slowed down, but it's not like Konerko is getting faster.

 

So, yeah, you can suggest that Dunn is slower than Konerko, but you'd be wrong.

 

(you also don't have to be moving quickly when the ball goes over the fence)

 

/obligatory

First of all, challenge ... Dunn is the guy in Major League running the 40 who gets beat by Willy Mays Hayes coming from behind in his PJs

 

Secondly, again not saying you're wrong, but I thought you usually wanted your 'best hitter' / best production guy in the 3-hole, and think that regardless of his walks (especially given his speed), you don't want a mid .200 hitter, who is slow, and strikes out 150+ times per year hitting in the 3 hole, especially when you can hit him 4th/5th given the talent in this line-up

[witesoxfan]

First of all, challenge ... Dunn is the guy in Major League running the 40 who gets beat by Willy Mays Hayes coming from behind in his PJs

 

Secondly, again not saying you're wrong, but I thought you usually wanted your 'best hitter' / best production guy in the 3-hole, and think that regardless of his walks (especially given his speed), you don't want a mid .200 hitter, who is slow, and strikes out 150+ times per year hitting in the 3 hole, especially when you can hit him 4th/5th given the talent in this line-up

 

Dunn has played the outfield (terribly) in his career. Just try and imagine Konerko at any point attempting that, and your head will explode. Dunn is faster than Konerko. Being big doesn't take away from that.

 

And besides, Willie Mays Hayes was ridiculously fast. Like 5.00 60 yard dash fast. No one can touch Willie.

 

With regard to your second point, according to ideal lineup construction, I would imagine the lineup is something along the lines of

 

Beckham - 2B

Konerko - 1B

Quentin - RF

Dunn - DH

Rios - CF

Ramirez - SS

Pierzynski - C

Morel - 3B

Pierre - LF

 

You want your highest OBP at the top of the order, but that would be relative waste of Dunn's power. Having him hit 2nd is an option as well, but due to that total power, hitting 4th would be preferred. The second best OBP guy is Konerko, but having him hit leadoff would again be a relative waste of his power, so having him hit 2nd atleast allows him to utilize that power a bit better. I was torn between Beckham and Quentin hitting leadoff, as Quentin is likely to have the better OBP but is also far more likely to hit for more power too, and so I have him hitting 3rd. Beckham should get on base more than Rios, so he's the leadoff hitter by default. Rios then hits 5th as the worst of the best (which is not a bad thing), and then the rest of the lineup is just filled out in sequential order of what I figure to be their offensive values (Ramireez > Pierzynski > Morel > Pierre).

 

It is actually been proven statistically that you should not want your best hitter hitting 3rd but instead 1st, 2nd, or 4th, depending upon the skills of the other players within your lineups. Instead, you want your 4th or 5th best hitter hitting 3rd (preferably 4th because they will get approximately 40 more plate appearances per year than the player hitting 5th). Hitting 3rd will, approximately 30-35% of the time, leave him with no one on base and 2 outs in the first inning. If he gets out, which is certainly possible, you then have your 1st/2nd/3rd best hitter leading off the top of the 2nd. This also works out because your #4 hitter is still going to get quite a few ABs, and because 3 of the top 4 hitters on your team will be hitting in front of him getting on base quite a bit.

 

So, basically, I agree and disagree with your general train of thought. I don't want Dunn hitting 5th because that is taking very valuable plate appearances away from him. At the same time, I would prefer that he hit 4th in the lineup with someone else hitting 3rd, but I don't see that happening. In the end, I would prefer Dunn hitting 3rd to 5th because he is going to get those extra 40 plate appearances a year hitting in that spot, and he should be getting on base enough that he will give Konerko plenty of opportunities to drive him in (whether that be slowly trotting around the bases following a Konerko home run or scoring from 1st on a double).

Edited March 1, 2011 by witesoxfan

[greg775]

I'd comment, but I don't even understand Oz's quote.

Are the Sox going Rios third, Dunn fourth and Paulie fifth?

I think I'd prefer Dunn third, Paulie fourth and Rios fifth.

Actually my preferred lineup would be Rios, Beckham, Dunn, Paulie, Quentin, AJ, Alexei, Morel/Teahen and Pierre.

If not Rios/Beckham, then Beckham/Rios.

Juan Pierre is a No. 9 hitter. He is not good.

Edited March 1, 2011 by greg775

[WCSox]

Secondly, again not saying you're wrong, but I thought you usually wanted your 'best hitter' / best production guy in the 3-hole, and think that regardless of his walks (especially given his speed), you don't want a mid .200 hitter, who is slow, and strikes out 150+ times per year hitting in the 3 hole, especially when you can hit him 4th/5th given the talent in this line-up

 

It doesn't matter if he hits .250 and strikes out a lot when his OBP is .380 and his OPS is .900. If that doesn't make him the "best hitter" on the team, he comes in a very close second.

 

Dunn is basically a younger (and maybe slightly inferior) Jim Thome. I'm not sure that the 3-hole would've been the best place for Thome in his prime, but it's far from unreasonable to bat him there.

 

[whitesoxfan99]

It doesn't matter if he hits .250 and strikes out a lot when his OBP is .380 and his OPS is .900. If that doesn't make him the "best hitter" on the team, he comes in a very close second.

 

Dunn is basically a younger (and maybe slightly inferior) Jim Thome. I'm not sure that the 3-hole would've been the best place for Thome in his prime, but it's far from unreasonable to bat him there.

 

Dunn is a good player and I am happy he is on the White Sox but he is vastly inferior to Thome in his prime. Dunn's career OPS is .902 and his career high is .956. Thome's career OPS is .963 and between 1995 and 2007 he only twice posted an OPS lower than Dunn's career high of .956 and one of those seasons was his injury plagued 2005.

[WCSox]

Dunn is a good player and I am happy he is on the White Sox but he is vastly inferior to Thome in his prime. Dunn's career OPS is .902 and his career high is .956. Thome's career OPS is .963 and between 1995 and 2007 he only twice posted an OPS lower than Dunn's career high of .956 and one of those seasons was his injury plagued 2005.

 

While nobody's claiming that Dunn is a HOF candidate or anything, a drop-off from .956 to .902 in career OPS is far from "vastly inferior."

 

[YASNY]

Dunn to play 1B today.

[TheBigHurt]

Dunn to play 1B today.

 

Ozzie didn't pull a Toby Hall again, did he?

 

 

Also... I was under the impression from the start that Dunn was going to be our #3 all along, as a given. Don't see why not. I like Paulie but I like him as cleanup better (although I can see the idea), and I simply LOL at the idea of Rios being the 3 hitter right now.

[Balta1701]

Ozzie didn't pull a Toby Hall again, did he?

I'd imagine we'll see Dunn at 1b once or twice a week this season.

[Leonard Zelig]

Ozzie didn't pull a Toby Hall again, did he?

 

Dunn's started over 300 games at 1B, Toby Hall had played 2.

[TheBigHurt]

Dunn's started over 300 games at 1B, Toby Hall had played 2.

 

I know, I know... just kidding. I'd think we'd at least wait until the regular season starts before we try that. I have to assume Dunn's only gonna play 1B when Paulie needs a rest.

[Balta1701]

I know, I know... just kidding. I'd think we'd at least wait until the regular season starts before we try that. I have to assume Dunn's only gonna play 1B when Paulie needs a rest.

They seemed to convince themselves (including PK14) that having PK14 DH once a week and having Kotsay play 1b was key to the season Paulie had last year.

 

If they signed a guy like Dunn who can play 1b and then didn't do that, if for no other reason than because PK14 felt liked it helped, they'd be nuts.