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3rd Base....NO....not Teahen!


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Notes from spring training

6 hours ago by KenRosenthal

 

*The White Sox are open to trading Mark Teahen rather than making him a high-priced utility man at the four corner positions and DH. Still, Teahen represents insurance for rookie third baseman Brent Morel, an outstanding defender who might not hit right away.

 

Manager Ozzie Guillen likes Teahen’s left-handed bat and estimates that he could find 350 at-bats for the veteran if Morel wins the starting job at third. The problem: Teahen, who is guaranteed $4.75 million this season and $5.5 million in 2012, would be overpaid as a reserve.

 

:pray

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 14, 2011 -> 08:20 PM)
I think Morel will become Brandon Inge

Do you mean like defense heavy, light bat 3B? Because Inge and Morel are quite different types of hitters. Morel is much more balanced in power and contact than inge, who is more of a power guy basically because he doesnt hit for much average at all.

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QUOTE (Paint it Black @ Mar 15, 2011 -> 06:51 AM)
Inge is an above average 3B when all things are considered. If Morell ends up having years at the plate like Inge I'll be both shocked and thrilled.

 

Really? Because this would suggest that he's been one of the worst 3Bman in the league over the past 3 years. And no, I hadn't seen that upon making my comment.

 

Brandon Inge is not a very good hitter. He's hit for quite a bit of power at times, but it's been at the expense of his average and plate discipline. From everything I've seen, he's always been a phenomenal defender at 3B too, though the numbers feel he's only good. I would have no problem if Morel did that. But if he seriously is putting up OPS's ranging anywhere from .675-.725 2-3 years from now from 3B with no signs of any real improvement, he will be doing it for another organization because the White Sox won't allow it.

 

On top of that, as was mentioned previously, Morel and Inge are completely different hitters. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see both players put up an OPS of .700 this season. It would surprise me much more if Morel did it with a surprising amount of power or if Inge did it with an increase in his average. Their games' are not very similar.

Edited by witesoxfan
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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 15, 2011 -> 11:43 AM)
I would have no problem if Morel did that. But if he seriously is putting up OPS's ranging anywhere from .675-.725 2-3 years from now from 3B with no signs of any real improvement, he will be doing it for another organization because the White Sox won't allow it.

In his first 3 full seasons, Joe Crede put up OPS of .741, .717, and .756, in a bigger offense era.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 15, 2011 -> 12:18 PM)
In his first 3 full seasons, Joe Crede put up OPS of .741, .717, and .756, in a bigger offense era.

 

And he also showed signs of improvement throughout that, which was a qualifier I included for Morel. Upon initially receiving the starting job, Crede put up an .826 OPS over the final two months of the 2002 season. His defense, which was only OK upon coming up, was continually getting better and better. And he actually had a pretty good offensive year in 2005, but he two severe slumps in it, and you can actually just see it by looking at his monthly statistics. In April, June, July, and September, his OPS was .800+ (and like 1.100+ in September). In May and August, his OPS's were .496 and .320. Thus, there are signs of improvement in that season as well.

 

If Brent Morel is putting up OPS's of .800+ for 4 of the 6 months of the year come next year or two years from now, that's perfectly acceptable. If you want to adjust and say he's only putting up .775+ OPS's during those months, that's fine too. But if he hasn't done anything to show that he's improved as a hitter in 2-3 years, he is not going to be with the White Sox organization (assuming that they are still spending and trying to compete of course).

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 15, 2011 -> 09:19 AM)
I'm guessing a deal for Teahen would look something like the Milton Bradley for Carlos Silva deal did last year...

Why would we do that? You do that for clubhouse cancers or trading bad contracts at positions you don't need for contracts at positions you do need. Besides, he's not getting anywhere NEAR those guy's numbers; his contract isn't THAT bad

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QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Mar 15, 2011 -> 04:05 PM)
Why would we do that? You do that for clubhouse cancers or trading bad contracts at positions you don't need for contracts at positions you do need. Besides, he's not getting anywhere NEAR those guy's numbers; his contract isn't THAT bad

 

His contract is pretty bad. $10+ mill over the next two years for a bad offensive and defensive player. He has value as a left handed bat off the bench. At least Carlos Silva can (generally) give you 180 innings of better than replacement level pitching and Milton Bradley has been a monster offensively before. There really is no upside with Teahen at all.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 15, 2011 -> 06:09 PM)
His contract is pretty bad. $10+ mill over the next two years for a bad offensive and defensive player. He has value as a left handed bat off the bench. At least Carlos Silva can (generally) give you 180 innings of better than replacement level pitching and Milton Bradley has been a monster offensively before. There really is no upside with Teahen at all.

I do believe the Cubs are paying for >$11M for Silva this year and there's a decent chance he doesn't even make the team. If he could pitch out of the bullpen, he would be. He would be getting lights-out closer money for mop-up innings. There are other bench guys getting 4.5M. It's not a good contract, but it's a zit compared to the full-blown MRSA infection of Silva and Bradley.

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QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Mar 15, 2011 -> 04:05 PM)
Why would we do that? You do that for clubhouse cancers or trading bad contracts at positions you don't need for contracts at positions you do need. Besides, he's not getting anywhere NEAR those guy's numbers; his contract isn't THAT bad

 

That is my point really. No one is going to trade for Teahen, unless they get to give something as crappy back in return.

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QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Mar 15, 2011 -> 04:14 PM)
I do believe the Cubs are paying for >$11M for Silva this year and there's a decent chance he doesn't even make the team. If he could pitch out of the bullpen, he would be. He would be getting lights-out closer money for mop-up innings. There are other bench guys getting 4.5M. It's not a good contract, but it's a zit compared to the full-blown MRSA infection of Silva and Bradley.

 

Carlos Silva was worth ~2 WAR last year (1.8 bWAR, 2.1 fWAR). That's got a market value of approximately $9 mill if you assume that teams pay $4.5 mill per win share. So, at $11 mill, he was worth $2 mill less and fulfilled approximately 82% of that value (simply using 9/11 here). Compare that to Teahen, who was essentially worthless last year ( -0.4 bWAR and -0.1 fWAR). That gives him a negative worth and means he didn't do anything to justify his salary. He was absolutely awful.

 

That's why teams are actually scouting Carlos Silva. There is value there - he is a league average starter who can give you a few innings. If he doesn't make the Cubs, it's either because he is out of shape and not throwing the ball well at all or because the Cubs front office is incompetent. Mark Teahen can't be counted on to start anywhere because his bat isn't strong enough to overcome mediocre defense in LF or RF, and he is atrocious defensively at 3B and 2B, and nobody wants to TRADE for a $5 mill a year bench player.

 

I will argue all day and everyday that Teahen's contract is worse than Silva, and I'd probably argue it over Bradley too (although Bradley is CRAZY). The best thing the Sox can do is to put Teahen into positions where he can be successful or, at the very least, appear to be successful so as to improve his value so that you can either dump him on someone at some point during the year or the offseason without kicking in any cash. Or, similar to the Linebrink move, take on $2-3 million and take back a no one prospect, because retaining some value from a failed investment is better than retaining no value, and at $2-3 mill for the year, some team who lacks depth will surely take on Teahen, because there are moments where he appears to be a solid major league hitter.

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Carlos Silva was worth ~2 WAR last year (1.8 bWAR, 2.1 fWAR). That's got a market value of approximately $9 mill if you assume that teams pay $4.5 mill per win share. So, at $11 mill, he was worth $2 mill less and fulfilled approximately 82% of that value (simply using 9/11 here). Compare that to Teahen, who was essentially worthless last year ( -0.4 bWAR and -0.1 fWAR). That gives him a negative worth and means he didn't do anything to justify his salary. He was absolutely awful.

 

That's why teams are actually scouting Carlos Silva. There is value there - he is a league average starter who can give you a few innings. If he doesn't make the Cubs, it's either because he is out of shape and not throwing the ball well at all or because the Cubs front office is incompetent. Mark Teahen can't be counted on to start anywhere because his bat isn't strong enough to overcome mediocre defense in LF or RF, and he is atrocious defensively at 3B and 2B, and nobody wants to TRADE for a $5 mill a year bench player.

 

I will argue all day and everyday that Teahen's contract is worse than Silva, and I'd probably argue it over Bradley too (although Bradley is CRAZY). The best thing the Sox can do is to put Teahen into positions where he can be successful or, at the very least, appear to be successful so as to improve his value so that you can either dump him on someone at some point during the year or the offseason without kicking in any cash. Or, similar to the Linebrink move, take on $2-3 million and take back a no one prospect, because retaining some value from a failed investment is better than retaining no value, and at $2-3 mill for the year, some team who lacks depth will surely take on Teahen, because there are moments where he appears to be a solid major league hitter.

 

This. If we take back a no name prospect with a little bit if upside at least negates the money we would have to take back on a similar bad contract. If the trade could involve a prospect who needs a change of scenery then we just eat salary at the MILB level which is way less that an inflated MLB contract. Can anyone think of any prospects out there that fit this bill?

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QUOTE (SpainSOXfan09 @ Mar 16, 2011 -> 02:56 PM)
This. If we take back a no name prospect with a little bit if upside at least negates the money we would have to take back on a similar bad contract. If the trade could involve a prospect who needs a change of scenery then we just eat salary at the MILB level which is way less that an inflated MLB contract. Can anyone think of any prospects out there that fit this bill?

 

Any 23-26 year old pitcher who can throw it in the lower to mid 90s with some semblance of control would be worth Mark Teahen plus $2.5 mill next offseason (as of this moment). If you want an example, I would absolutely take a Philip Humber or Shane Lindsay for Mark Teahen so long as they don't have to take up a spot on the 40-man roster in 2012.

 

 

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Any 23-26 year old pitcher who can throw it in the lower to mid 90s with some semblance of control would be worth Mark Teahen plus $2.5 mill next offseason (as of this moment). If you want an example, I would absolutely take a Philip Humber or Shane Lindsay for Mark Teahen so long as they don't have to take up a spot on the 40-man roster in 2012.

 

Kewl, I'm gonna see if I can find some AAA projects who fit this bill too.

 

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 15, 2011 -> 10:43 AM)
Really? Because this would suggest that he's been one of the worst 3Bman in the league over the past 3 years. And no, I hadn't seen that upon making my comment.

 

Brandon Inge is not a very good hitter. He's hit for quite a bit of power at times, but it's been at the expense of his average and plate discipline. From everything I've seen, he's always been a phenomenal defender at 3B too, though the numbers feel he's only good. I would have no problem if Morel did that. But if he seriously is putting up OPS's ranging anywhere from .675-.725 2-3 years from now from 3B with no signs of any real improvement, he will be doing it for another organization because the White Sox won't allow it.

 

On top of that, as was mentioned previously, Morel and Inge are completely different hitters. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see both players put up an OPS of .700 this season. It would surprise me much more if Morel did it with a surprising amount of power or if Inge did it with an increase in his average. Their games' are not very similar.

I agree with everything you said about Inge. I wasn't really trying to compare their games, rather just what they are compared to the rest of the league. i.e. middle of the road third baseman. Even with Inge having 2 bad years the last couple of seasons, there were a few seasons mixed in where his defense and bat were above average. All things considered, there are not that many elite level third baseman in the game, and there is a lot of awful throughout the league at the position. My point was just that if Morel is a middle of the road 3B, .260ish hitter (I'm thinking of what Crede was, with obviously less power and glove) then you have yourself a sold regular. Not a bad thing to have at all.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 16, 2011 -> 09:42 PM)
Any 23-26 year old pitcher who can throw it in the lower to mid 90s with some semblance of control would be worth Mark Teahen plus $2.5 mill next offseason (as of this moment). If you want an example, I would absolutely take a Philip Humber or Shane Lindsay for Mark Teahen so long as they don't have to take up a spot on the 40-man roster in 2012.

 

I can't see Mark Teahen getting dealt for less than half of his contract, unless the Sox get a bad contract back. If it were possible to deal him without that, they would have done it already.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 17, 2011 -> 08:28 AM)
Stone was on the other day saying Morel is a lock at 3B because A. Even if he doesn't hit, the Sox have plenty of offense and B. Danks and Buehrle throw cutters and Peavy is a sinkerballer. It is more important to have some defense at 3B.

The Hawk was selling the same point yesterday during the game.

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