Mark Buehrle

[Y2HH]

He once started the All Star game. I don't think we will see that again. He has been declining for several years now even if the stats don't show it. Maybe he belongs in the bullpen soon.

 

...and we replace his yearly 220+ innings and decent ERA with whom, exactly?

[bigruss]

...and we replace his yearly 220+ innings and decent ERA with whom, exactly?

That my friend, is the big question.

 

It is why people kept bringing up the same trades over and over again, because they saw a huge weakness approaching with no legit answers coming from the farm system. Thus, FA will have to save this team, as the rotation will have many potential openings coming up soon.

[Y2HH]

That my friend, is the big question.

 

It is why people kept bringing up the same trades over and over again, because they saw a huge weakness approaching with no legit answers coming from the farm system. Thus, FA will have to save this team, as the rotation will have many potential openings coming up soon.

 

I have zero love for "farm systems", and don't care whether we ever have a good "farm" or not. In the free agency era of baseball, free agency > farm systems. How many "can't miss" prospects did I have to witness fall on their face for the Sox in the last decade and amount to nothing? 50? Meanwhile, 2 of them ever became something? Meh.

 

For many years, the Cubs had one of the best farm systems in baseball...and what did it produce? A bunch of hurt players and failures? I hear about these insane farms all the time, and they produce MAYBE 1-2 good players in a DECADE. Big deal. And then, by the time these farm players mature to the point where you're team is well rounded enough to win a title, most of them leave via free agency. You could use free agency to get 1-2 good players in a decade without even trying. The Twins supposedly have an awesome farm...and they've won ZERO titles throughout the era they've had this farm.

 

For every "farm grown team" that wins a world series, 9 world series are won by teams that stacked free agents. I'd rather go this route than rely on a bunch of kids that may or may not turn into anything. Besides, with stupid farm rebuilds, you have to go through 3-5 years of crap baseball before they get good and you end up paying them what you would have paid free agents anyway...in the mean time, if you just reload with free agents, you don't have to go through years of bad in order to get good.

 

That ends my rant on stupid farms.

[bigruss]

I have zero love for "farm systems", and don't care whether we ever have a good "farm" or not. In the free agency era of baseball, free agency > farm systems. How many "can't miss" prospects did I have to witness fall on their face for the Sox in the last decade and amount to nothing? 50? Meanwhile, 2 of them ever became something? Meh.

 

For many years, the Cubs had one of the best farm systems in baseball...and what did it produce? A bunch of hurt players and failures? I hear about these insane farms all the time, and they produce MAYBE 1-2 good players in a DECADE. Big deal. And then, by the time these farm players mature to the point where you're team is well rounded enough to win a title, most of them leave via free agency. You could use free agency to get 1-2 good players in a decade without even trying. The Twins supposedly have an awesome farm...and they've won ZERO titles throughout the era they've had this farm.

 

For every "farm grown team" that wins a world series, 9 world series are won by teams that stacked free agents. I'd rather go this route than rely on a bunch of kids that may or may not turn into anything. Besides, with stupid farm rebuilds, you have to go through 3-5 years of crap baseball before they get good and you end up paying them what you would have paid free agents anyway...in the mean time, if you just reload with free agents, you don't have to go through years of bad in order to get good.

 

That ends my rant on stupid farms.

 

Although you bring up some valid points, the fact is a strong farm system has two deliverables: depth for you MLB team and trade pieces. It´s not about depending only on homegrown players, but trading pieces you drafted for established players. You can´t do that if other teams don´t think you have enough to offer to deal with.

 

The best organizations have a balance between homegrown, international, trade acquired, and FA signed players. Right now, the future of the Sox is showing too much dependent on FA´s to build a contender within budget.

 

[Steve9347]

Mark Buehrle is the least of any team's worries. His results are always the same, and luck defines whether he has a "good", "average", or "bad" season to his standards. The law of averages says he's due for a "good" season, so I'm going to predict 17 wins with a 3.64 era.

Edited March 29, 2011 by Steve9347

[Kyyle23]

i never worry about Buehrle, he is in the Jamie Moyer mold IMO. Soft tossing lefties just seem to be able to keep going

[Balta1701]

Although you bring up some valid points, the fact is a strong farm system has two deliverables: depth for you MLB team and trade pieces. It´s not about depending only on homegrown players, but trading pieces you drafted for established players. You can´t do that if other teams don´t think you have enough to offer to deal with.

 

The best organizations have a balance between homegrown, international, trade acquired, and FA signed players. Right now, the future of the Sox is showing too much dependent on FA´s to build a contender within budget.

And although you're 100% right that you can't trade talent to other teams if you don't have it...let's look at the actual case study of the Chicago White Sox.

 

The White Sox have had, by all accounts, a bottom of baseball farm system for the last half-decade at least. You could have written this post in 2005-2006 and been just as accurate.

 

Despite that, the Sox's minor league system has produced a fairly regular supply of players for the major league system. Although it hasn't outproduced Boston, it has been still producing big leaguers. Furthermore, it has given Kenny Williams ample ammunition to be the most aggressive GM in baseball in the trade market. Yeah, we're going to regret having dealt Gio. But otherwise, we complain on and on about how the weak farm system has prevented trades, yet KW still manages to pull more of them off than any other GM.

[chw42]

Mark's been having on-off seasons for a while now and xFIP really hasn't done much to project him correctly (since xFIP neutralizes luck on home runs, it is best used to look a year or two ahead).

 

Just look at how his FIP and xFIP have been in the past 5 years.

 

06: 5.27/4.78

07: 4.26/4.41

08: 3.94/3.98

09: 4.46/4.37

10: 3.90/4.49

 

His xFIP is constantly hovering around 4.5, yet his FIP is more or less around 4-4.2. So he's outperforming xFIP by half a run just about every season.

 

Even with the batted ball abnormalities last season, all the projection systems have Buehrle's FIP at 4.1 this upcoming season.

 

He'll be fine. His fastball velocity's been around the same these past 5 years (around 86), so I don't think he's due for a huge decline.

Edited March 29, 2011 by chw42

[Jordan4life_2007]

I have zero love for "farm systems", and don't care whether we ever have a good "farm" or not. In the free agency era of baseball, free agency > farm systems. How many "can't miss" prospects did I have to witness fall on their face for the Sox in the last decade and amount to nothing? 50? Meanwhile, 2 of them ever became something? Meh.

 

You don't have to love them. But to act as if a strong farm has no relevance whatsoever due to FA is ridiculous. Yeah, the Sox have pretty much sucked in the drafting department, amateur and international wise, for the last decade. And that's partly why we continuously come up short to the same team year after year.

 

For many years, the Cubs had one of the best farm systems in baseball...and what did it produce? A bunch of hurt players and failures? I hear about these insane farms all the time, and they produce MAYBE 1-2 good players in a DECADE. Big deal. And then, by the time these farm players mature to the point where you're team is well rounded enough to win a title, most of them leave via free agency. You could use free agency to get 1-2 good players in a decade without even trying. The Twins supposedly have an awesome farm...and they've won ZERO titles throughout the era they've had this farm.

 

lol@using the Cubs as some sort of staple as to why farm systems are of no importance. And if you want to get technical, their farm had them 5 outs, or a Bartman, away from getting to the World Series and probably winning it. Not FA. The Twins have been to the postseason 6 times in 9 years. f*** World Series titles. Everybody knows it's basically a toss-up once you get to October.

 

 

For every "farm grown team" that wins a world series, 9 world series are won by teams that stacked free agents. I'd rather go this route than rely on a bunch of kids that may or may not turn into anything. Besides, with stupid farm rebuilds, you have to go through 3-5 years of crap baseball before they get good and you end up paying them what you would have paid free agents anyway...in the mean time, if you just reload with free agents, you don't have to go through years of bad in order to get good.

 

That ends my rant on stupid farms.

 

Like Who? The '09 Yankees? And how many years did it take for them to actually net the right FAs before their money finally bought them a title? Look at the core of the current Red Sox. How were they able to acquire Adrian Gonzalez? We wouldn't have had a chance unless we were to trade away key pieces from the major league team. How about the Phillies? They have what's looking like the greatest rotation of the last 25-years due to the farm (Hamels), pieces to trade (Halladay, Oswalt), and they had enough to acquire Lee in '09. Not to mention guys like Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley were all drafted and developed by Philly. How about the Braves? Hanson, McCann, Heyward, Kimbrel and Venters all came through the system. And they've got another bevy of premium 'spects on the way. When the trade deadline rolls around and contenders are looking to upgrade, it's the ones with the deepest systems that are always the major players. We tried to get Dunn last year and failed because we couldn't afford to part with Viciedo. Overpaying for free agents every year is no more of a proven formula than drafting/developing. It's the combination that makes for for a successful franchise.

Edited March 29, 2011 by Jordan4life

[Balta1701]

How were they able to acquire Adrian Gonzalez

The new GM of the Padres really, really liked some of the guys in the Red Sox system, or else just decided to help out the Red Sox.

We tried to get Dunn last year and failed because we couldn't afford to part with Viciedo.

No, because we weren't going to part with Viciedo for a 2 month rental. Big difference. The Braves might be deep enough to part with Jason Heyward for a 2 month rental, but that doesn't mean its' a smart decision.

[Jordan4life_2007]

The new GM of the Padres really, really liked some of the guys in the Red Sox system, or else just decided to help out the Red Sox.

 

That's myth. Why the hell would Hoyer want to "help out" the Red Sox? Where's the monetary gain?

 

No, because we weren't going to part with Viciedo for a 2 month rental. Big difference. The Braves might be deep enough to part with Jason Heyward for a 2 month rental, but that doesn't mean its' a smart decision.

 

Well you were going to have to give up something for a two month rental. That's the position the Sox put themselves in when they decided that Kotsay was a feasible option. The Nats weren't going to give him away.

Edited March 29, 2011 by Jordan4life

[Balta1701]

Well you were going to have to give up something for a two month rental. That's the position the Sox put themselves in when they decided that Kotsay was a feasible option. The Nats weren't going to give him away.

There's a reason he wasn't traded. The Nats can ask for Buster Posey, but they're not likely to get him.

[Jordan4life_2007]

There's a reason he wasn't traded. The Nats can ask for Buster Posey, but they're not likely to get him.

 

I still don't see your point? So because the Nats weren't going to settle for our garbage that's somehow a win for the White Sox?

 

And why are you bringing up names like Heyward and Posey? As if Viciedo is in the same stratosphere.

Edited March 29, 2011 by Jordan4life

[witesoxfan]

I still don't see your point? So because the Nats weren't going to settle for our garbage that's somehow a win for the White Sox?

 

And why are you bringing up names like Heyward and Posey? As if Viciedo is in the same stratosphere.

 

I think ceiling wise Viciedo is absolutely on par with those two. The problem is that his floor is a AAAA player, where those two have already established themselves as above average starters. If he becomes just a little more patient at the plate, he is going to be a force.

 

Just because...

 

Carlos Gonzalez @ 21 years - .288/.336/.478/.814, 130 games (120 at AA), 19.9% K, 6.9% BB, 547 PAs

Dayan Viciedo @ 21 years - .274/.308/.493/.801, 86 games (all at AAA), 21.5% K, 3% BB, 363 PAs

 

We are also well aware that Viciedo can atleast hang at the major league level, though he wouldn't have been able to maintain his .308 MLB batting average with a .365 BABIP.

 

I'm obviously not trying to say that Viciedo IS Carlos Gonzalez, just that they have pretty similar minor league numbers and progressions and games overall. Gonzalez is a superior athlete (and thus, also a superior defender), but Viciedo has a lot going for him as well. He still has a lot to work on, but there is no question that he could turn into an incredibly special player within the next 2-3 years.

 

So yes, while it's frustrating that the Sox didn't have the depth required to deal for Adam Dunn at the deadline last year, they did the right thing in keeping Viciedo around.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I think ceiling wise Viciedo is absolutely on par with those two. The problem is that his floor is a AAAA player, where those two have already established themselves as above average starters. If he becomes just a little more patient at the plate, he is going to be a force.

 

Just because...

 

Carlos Gonzalez @ 21 years - .288/.336/.478/.814, 130 games (120 at AA), 19.9% K, 6.9% BB, 547 PAs

Dayan Viciedo @ 21 years - .274/.308/.493/.801, 86 games (all at AAA), 21.5% K, 3% BB, 363 PAs

 

We are also well aware that Viciedo can atleast hang at the major league level, though he wouldn't have been able to maintain his .308 MLB batting average with a .365 BABIP.

 

I'm obviously not trying to say that Viciedo IS Carlos Gonzalez, just that they have pretty similar minor league numbers and progressions and games overall. Gonzalez is a superior athlete (and thus, also a superior defender), but Viciedo has a lot going for him as well. He still has a lot to work on, but there is no question that he could turn into an incredibly special player within the next 2-3 years.

 

So yes, while it's frustrating that the Sox didn't have the depth required to deal for Adam Dunn at the deadline last year, they did the right thing in keeping Viciedo around.

 

You obviously think more of Viciedo than I do. I'll be content with early 2000's Jose Guillen as his ceiling. Heyward and Posey are generational type talents. And you know how I feel about Cargo.

[kjshoe04]

You obviously think more of Viciedo than I do. I'll be content with early 2000's Jose Guillen as his ceiling. Heyward and Posey are generational type talents. And you know how I feel about Cargo.

Thats he's extremely underwhelming away from coors?

[Jordan4life_2007]

Thats he's extremely underwhelming away from coors?

 

I'm still in denial about that. But touche. I'm leaving it up to Cargo to prove once and for all he's not primarily a product of Coors.

 

[witesoxfan]

You obviously think more of Viciedo than I do. I'll be content with early 2000's Jose Guillen as his ceiling. Heyward and Posey are generational type talents. And you know how I feel about Cargo.

 

I do absolutely love Viciedo. It's hard for me to even think of someone with a bat that quick with so much strength behind it. The first thought that pops into my head is Cecil Fielder but I don't foresee Viciedo adding that much weight.

 

Jose Guillen actually isn't a terrible comparison, but I think Viciedo is going to hit for a higher average and a bit more power than that too.

 

If I had to give a range, I'd say anywhere between an .850-.950 OPS during his peak years - anywhere from .300/.350/.500 to .325/.375/.575 (with some wiggle room in-between). If Quentin wants to start for the White Sox next year, he really needs to bring his A-game because Viciedo is going to be knocking on the door. And for your personal sake, he better have a good year because I could easily see the Sox resigning Pierre on a 1-year deal to bridge the gap to Mitchell or whomever with Viciedo taking over in RF in 2012 if he does not.

[bigruss]

And although you're 100% right that you can't trade talent to other teams if you don't have it...let's look at the actual case study of the Chicago White Sox.

 

The White Sox have had, by all accounts, a bottom of baseball farm system for the last half-decade at least. You could have written this post in 2005-2006 and been just as accurate.

 

Despite that, the Sox's minor league system has produced a fairly regular supply of players for the major league system. Although it hasn't outproduced Boston, it has been still producing big leaguers. Furthermore, it has given Kenny Williams ample ammunition to be the most aggressive GM in baseball in the trade market. Yeah, we're going to regret having dealt Gio. But otherwise, we complain on and on about how the weak farm system has prevented trades, yet KW still manages to pull more of them off than any other GM.

Since 2005 and through 2009, KW has acquired these players through trade:

Jim Thome and cash

Rob Mackowiak

Javier Vazquez

Alex Cintron

Matt Thornton

David Riske

Sandy Alomar, Jr.

Mike MacDougal

David Aardsma and Carlos Vazquez

Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez

Andy Sisco

Nick Masset, John Danks and Jacob Rasner

John Lujan

Tomas Perez

Danny Richar

Michael Dubee

Jon link

Orlando Cabrera

Carlos Quentin

Nick Swisher

Willy Mota and Miguel Socolovich

Jim Brower

Ken Griffey Jr.

Horacio Ramirez

Franklyn German

Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez

Brent Lillibridge, Tyler Flowers, Jon Gilmore and Santos Rodriguez

Future Considerations

Ramon Castro and cash

Norris Hopper

Tony Pena

Mark Kotsay

Jake Peavy

Cash

Andy Cannizaro

Justin Fuller

Brandon Hynick

Mark Teahen and cash

Juan Pierre

 

Not exactly a stellar list of acquisitions considering KW pretty much has lived through trades to supply the team with new talent. You have a couple big name players, but with them came huge contracts and were either old and/or injury prone. He found some diamond in the roughs like Thornton, but for the most part he hasn't had enough produce. Now, with a better farm system, one could say that he could have gotten a Roy Halladay, Adrian Gonzalez, etc. Of course this will all be stipulation because a fan can't say exactly what the asking price was and how prospects are viewed by different GMs, but the fact is a stronger farm system delivers better trade targets and more depth.

 

And the draft has supplied the Sox with Beckham, Morel, Sale. So 3 players in the last 5 years has supplied 3 players to your MLB team?? That's ridiculous, especially considering that many of the trades recently for KW have not been great (Peavy, Vazquez, Teahen, Swisher, those are the most important trades and have failed at multiple levels).

 

And then you look at the recent seasons that the Sox have had since the WS:

2006 102,750,667 90-72 3rd

2007 108,671,833 72-90 4th

2008 121,189,332 89-74 1st

2009 96,068,500 79-83 3rd

2010 107,000,000 88-74 2nd

 

He's only had one playoff appearance, and only one second place finish to show, even with the payroll where it was (numbers taken from MLBtraderumors, and Baseball-reference, I think some a high since they don't account for cash back). They can't make consecutive playoffs because they can't seem to fill holes in the team via trade, FA, or homegrown players. To me, this tells me that a stronger farm system is what is the difference between the Sox competing for the playoffs (not in it) every three years or so to them actually making it almost every year.

[bigruss]

I guess my point is, that even though the Sox have had moderate success, and one fantastic year, they still have a very big weakness in the draft, and this has kept them from achieving more.

 

The most troubling part of this is that it's something that can be fixed if they only stopped restricting themselves. It's their own damn fault that they don't have more prospects.

[soxrwhite]

...and we replace his yearly 220+ innings and decent ERA with whom, exactly?

 

 

Clayton Richard or Gio Gonzales

[ScottyDo]

Since 2005 and through 2009, KW has acquired these players through trade:

Jim Thome and cash

Rob Mackowiak

Javier Vazquez

Alex Cintron

Matt Thornton

David Riske

Sandy Alomar, Jr.

Mike MacDougal

David Aardsma and Carlos Vazquez

Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez

Andy Sisco

Nick Masset, John Danks and Jacob Rasner

John Lujan

Tomas Perez

Danny Richar

Michael Dubee

Jon link

Orlando Cabrera

Carlos Quentin

Nick Swisher

Willy Mota and Miguel Socolovich

Jim Brower

Ken Griffey Jr.

Horacio Ramirez

Franklyn German

Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez

Brent Lillibridge, Tyler Flowers, Jon Gilmore and Santos Rodriguez

Future Considerations

Ramon Castro and cash

Norris Hopper

Tony Pena

Mark Kotsay

Jake Peavy

Cash

Andy Cannizaro

Justin Fuller

Brandon Hynick

Mark Teahen and cash

Juan Pierre

 

Not exactly a stellar list of acquisitions considering KW pretty much has lived through trades to supply the team with new talent. You have a couple big name players, but with them came huge contracts and were either old and/or injury prone. He found some diamond in the roughs like Thornton, but for the most part he hasn't had enough produce. Now, with a better farm system, one could say that he could have gotten a Roy Halladay, Adrian Gonzalez, etc. Of course this will all be stipulation because a fan can't say exactly what the asking price was and how prospects are viewed by different GMs, but the fact is a stronger farm system delivers better trade targets and more depth.

 

And the draft has supplied the Sox with Beckham, Morel, Sale. So 3 players in the last 5 years has supplied 3 players to your MLB team?? That's ridiculous, especially considering that many of the trades recently for KW have not been great (Peavy, Vazquez, Teahen, Swisher, those are the most important trades and have failed at multiple levels).

 

And then you look at the recent seasons that the Sox have had since the WS:

2006 102,750,667 90-72 3rd

2007 108,671,833 72-90 4th

2008 121,189,332 89-74 1st

2009 96,068,500 79-83 3rd

2010 107,000,000 88-74 2nd

 

He's only had one playoff appearance, and only one second place finish to show, even with the payroll where it was (numbers taken from MLBtraderumors, and Baseball-reference, I think some a high since they don't account for cash back). They can't make consecutive playoffs because they can't seem to fill holes in the team via trade, FA, or homegrown players. To me, this tells me that a stronger farm system is what is the difference between the Sox competing for the playoffs (not in it) every three years or so to them actually making it almost every year.

Three players in the last 2 years...coinciding exactly with an overhaul of the talent evaluation staff...two of which are potential superstars in the offing...seems like you answered your own criticism.

 

People always say "2005 is over, stop talking about it", yet, for some reason, we're roundly criticizing the talent evaluation measures of 3-5 years ago? Guess what, THOSE years are over now. We're obviously much better at drafting now, and I see no reason why that trend can't continue.

[Jerksticks]

Even if Buehrle declines a bit more he's still the best #4-5 out there, or at least WAY above average. It's just that moving forward the current cost would be too much. Another 3 years of Buehrle at 10-11M is a good deal to me. Plus he's our boy and does amazing things. How cool would it be if he pitched on the Sox for 20 years? Legendary.

[Y2HH]

Clayton Richard or Gio Gonzales

 

In other words, you have no actual or valid response to my question...because you named players we don't have.

 

If you're going to name players we don't have, you'd be better off choosing Halladay and Lee. But thanks for trying.

Edited March 30, 2011 by Y2HH

[LVSoxFan]

Mark Buehrle is the last person I'm going to be concerned with when it comes to the Sox.

 

I think the time would be better spent focusing on players like Beckham, Pierre, CQ... guys who need to step up big-time this year if we're going to top the Twins for the Central.

 

Their consistency is in question. Buehrle's is not.