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ESPN in Shape for 2011


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QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Mar 30, 2011 -> 08:48 PM)
Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Beckett, Matsuzaka will be enough for that lineup.

 

I can easily see Beckett bouncing back with a Beckett-like year. He clearly wasn't healthy last year. And his peripheral stats were still plenty good. Much the same with Lackey. He had what could be considered an off-year and still posted a solid 4.0 WAR (our two best pitchers from a year ago posted WARs of 4.3 each). He should be better in his second go-around in the AL east. I'd love to be wrong, of course. I just don't see it.

Edited by Jordan4life
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QUOTE (PeavyTime @ Mar 30, 2011 -> 10:38 PM)
I've give you the 09 Yankees, but they are more an exception than the rule. 2008 Phillies were pitching.

 

Ehh, I don't know.

 

Hamels

Moyer

Myers

Kendrick

Eaton/Blanton

 

Hamels was the only one with a great year. Moyer had an above-average year, Myers had an average year, while Kendrick, Eaton, and Blanton all had pretty bad years.

 

And a loaded offense with Burrel, Howard, and Utley with 33+ HR.

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QUOTE (PeavyTime @ Mar 30, 2011 -> 09:38 PM)
I've give you the 09 Yankees, but they are more an exception than the rule. 2008 Phillies were pitching.

 

You're right for the most part. Teams with subpar pitching rarely end up winning it all. But you're assuming guys like Beckett/Lackey, two guys with a number of years of proven performance, will be as bad (and in Lackey's case he wasn't bad) as they were last year. If they are, then Boston won't win it all. But if they bounce back, and there's plenty of reason to believe they will, they're most definitely the team to beat.

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QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Mar 30, 2011 -> 10:07 PM)
You're right for the most part. Teams with subpar pitching rarely end up winning it all. But you're assuming guys like Beckett/Lackey, two guys with a number of years of proven performance, will be as bad (and in Lackey's case he wasn't bad) as they were last year. If they are, then Boston won't win it all. But if they bounce back, and there's plenty of reason to believe they will, they're most definitely the team to beat.

 

Well that's exactly it, teams with sub-par pitching don't pitch well, but teams with OK pitching or even just good pitching can do just fine. And beyond even that, it's simply a matter of playing really good baseball and the right time.

 

As pretty much the perfect example of this, the 2001 Diamondbacks won the World Series against a vaunted Yankees team that was playing with a ton of emotion behind them (and for my money, that was my second favorite World Series that I've witnessed and the absolute best overall World Series). That 2001 Diamondbacks team were led by Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson. Their numbers from that year...

 

Schilling - 2.98 ERA, 256.2 IP, 7.3 bWAR

Johnson - 2.49 ERA, 249.2 IP, 8.4 bWAR

 

I'm not going to do any complicated math, but those two combined for 500+ IP. That was 1/3 of the innings that the Diamondbacks pitching staff threw that year (which is pretty f'ing remarkable). Their starting pitchers' ERA that year 3.88; their bullpen ERA was 3.88, which is good but not fantastic.

 

I think the general point has been made. It's late and I'm rambling and the Red Sox have enough pitching talent to win a World Series. So do the White Sox and Athletics and Yankees and quite a few other teams around the league.

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QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Mar 30, 2011 -> 09:22 PM)
I can easily see Beckett bouncing back with a Beckett-like year. He clearly wasn't healthy last year. And his peripheral stats were still plenty good. Much the same with Lackey. He had what could be considered an off-year and still posted a solid 4.0 WAR (our two best pitchers from a year ago posted WARs of 4.3 each). He should be better in his second go-around in the AL east. I'd love to be wrong, of course. I just don't see it.

he obviously could, but if memory serves me right the issue with him is a bad back, that could also linger/flare up for the rest of his career, especially with the New England springs and falls.

Edited by SoxFan562004
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QUOTE (hi8is @ Mar 29, 2011 -> 05:40 AM)
Speaking of baseball networks - anyone else fell that Al Liter on MLB Network is a *bit* too - ummm... enthusiastic?

B)

he can be a bit of a spaz, but IMO he is very good on MLBN, so was Larkin, but he went to the darkside and is now on ESPN.

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QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ Mar 31, 2011 -> 08:57 AM)
he obviously could, but if memory serves me right the issue with him is a bad back, that could also linger/flare up for the rest of his career, especially with the New England springs and falls.

Yes, a lot of miles on Lackey and Beckett, too. They were both stud power pitchers at a very early age.

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QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Mar 31, 2011 -> 11:02 AM)
Yes, a lot of miles on Lackey and Beckett, too. They were both stud power pitchers at a very early age.

 

I worked with Beckett in the minors. He was a live version of Nuke Laloosh right out of high school. I swear he almost hit the mascot once. Good guy but he does have alot of miles on that arm.

 

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QUOTE (chw42 @ Mar 31, 2011 -> 12:58 PM)
I'm surprised that so many people picked the Sox to win the Central. Everyone at ESPN usually picks the Twins and I thought the Tigers were a popular pick amongst a lot of the "experts".

Tigers defense and bull-pen are likely a major concern for people making predictions

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