Billingsley extended for 3/35, is Danks next?

[joeynach]

Today the Dodgers extended Chad Billingsley for 3 years with an option for a 4th year. Billingsley, like Danks, is in his 2nd year his second of three seasons as an arbitration eligible player. Under his new extension, the right-hander will then earn $9MM in 2012, $11MM in 2013, $12MM in 2014 and either $14MM or a $3MM buyout in 2015. The deal includes a clause which allows Billingsley to block trades to ten teams. He posted a 3.57 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 191 2/3 innings last year and is set to earn 6.275M this year through his 2nd year of arbitration elibilibilty. He posted a 3.57 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 191 2/3 innings last year. His career numbers - 59-41 record, 3.55 ERA, 825 2/3 innings, 8.2 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9.

 

Danks has basically had a near identical career. Last year Danks was 15-11 with a 3.72 ERA, and posted a 6.8 K/9 and 3 BB/9 rate in 213IP. This lead Danks to a $6M contract for this year, his 2nd year of arbitration elibility. Danks owns a career line of 46-44 with a 3.96 ERA, 7.0 K/9, and 3.1 BB/9 in 741.1 IP. There are a few small differences, Billingsley has a better ERA and slightly better K rate, this has led to a better career record as well, but he has also pitched basically an extra season on Danks. The point being I believe this extensions serves as the perfect example for the White Sox and Danks. Something like this contract would provide Danks good guranteed money, a smaller commitment for the Sox, and still allow Danks to become a free agent at a young age. Thoughts?

[Rowand44]

Would've been done already.

[Jordan4life_2007]

So if my math is correct, that's two FA years bought out by the Dodgers. That's another equal or better pitcher than Danks extended by their club. Only one left is Kershaw. And I'm fairly confident the Dodgers will take care of him soon. I still stand by my stance that if something can't get done with Danks after this season that you trade him for the absolute best possible package.

[joeynach]

So if my math is correct, that's two FA years bought out by the Dodgers. That's another equal or better pitcher than Danks extended by their club. Only one left is Kershaw. And I'm fairly confident the Dodgers will take care of him soon. I still stand by my stance that if something can't get done with Danks after this season that you trade him for the absolute best possible package.

 

100% agree

[Jordan4life_2007]

Jerry is going to have to swallow his pride and get off this little 3-year rule when it comes to pitchers. He went 4 years with Mark because of '05. But Danks will command a minimum of 5 years. So something will have to give.

[witesoxfan]

Jerry is going to have to swallow his pride and get off this little 3-year rule when it comes to pitchers. He went 4 years with Mark because of '05. But Danks will command a minimum of 5 years. So something will have to give.

 

I would say that the best compromise would be to go 4 years with a vesting option that should be easily reached if Danks stays healthy. It becomes a regular team option with a large buyout if not reach so that, assuming it isn't reached which would also assume that Danks did not pitch particularly well, he would still go into free agency with a bit of change so he can still get a 1-year deal and not need to make a killing on it.

 

Somewhere around $16 mill a year at full value, so like...

 

'12 - $12 mill

'13 - $15 mill

'14 - $16 mill

'15 - $17 mill

'16 - $20 mill or $4 mill buyout, vests with 90 starts between '13-'15 or 25 starts in '15

 

Total guaranteed value is $64 mill over 4 years while the 5th year, if reached, pushes the total value to $80 million (maintaining the $16 mill per year value).

 

If Danks is healthy and pitching well, he's worth that contract and, again assuming health and all that jazz, he is still young enough that he can secure another pretty sizable deal and push his career earnings well over $100 mill.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I would say that the best compromise would be to go 4 years with a vesting option that should be easily reached if Danks stays healthy. It becomes a regular team option with a large buyout if not reach so that, assuming it isn't reached which would also assume that Danks did not pitch particularly well, he would still go into free agency with a bit of change so he can still get a 1-year deal and not need to make a killing on it.

 

Somewhere around $16 mill a year at full value, so like...

 

'12 - $12 mill

'13 - $15 mill

'14 - $16 mill

'15 - $17 mill

'16 - $20 mill or $4 mill buyout, vests with 90 starts between '13-'15 or 25 starts in '15

 

Total guaranteed value is $64 mill over 4 years while the 5th year, if reached, pushes the total value to $80 million (maintaining the $16 mill per year value).

 

If Danks is healthy and pitching well, he's worth that contract and, again assuming health and all that jazz, he is still young enough that he can secure another pretty sizable deal and push his career earnings well over $100 mill.

 

Wow, that sounds perfect to me. Almost too perfect. But I'm not going to stress about Danks until next offseason.

[joeynach]

I would say that the best compromise would be to go 4 years with a vesting option that should be easily reached if Danks stays healthy. It becomes a regular team option with a large buyout if not reach so that, assuming it isn't reached which would also assume that Danks did not pitch particularly well, he would still go into free agency with a bit of change so he can still get a 1-year deal and not need to make a killing on it.

 

Somewhere around $16 mill a year at full value, so like...

 

'12 - $12 mill

'13 - $15 mill

'14 - $16 mill

'15 - $17 mill

'16 - $20 mill or $4 mill buyout, vests with 90 starts between '13-'15 or 25 starts in '15

 

Total guaranteed value is $64 mill over 4 years while the 5th year, if reached, pushes the total value to $80 million (maintaining the $16 mill per year value).

 

If Danks is healthy and pitching well, he's worth that contract and, again assuming health and all that jazz, he is still young enough that he can secure another pretty sizable deal and push his career earnings well over $100 mill.

 

So why does danks get $16M over 4 years while Billingsley gets around $11M for 3 years with a $3M buyout. And Billingsley has a lower career ERA, higher K/9, and better W-L figure.

[Kalapse]

So why does danks get $16M over 4 years while Billingsley gets around $11M for 3 years with a $3M buyout. And Billingsley has a lower career ERA, higher K/9, and better W-L figure.

Handedness. It means an awful lot.

[witesoxfan]

That, and the fact that he's better. Chad Billingsley has pitched his home games at Chavez Ravine for the duration of his career, which has played as a pitcher's park for pretty much the entirety of Billingsley's career. He's also pitched in the NL, which has been a weaker and generally more diluted talent wise throughout his career as well. Meanwhile, Danks has pitched his home games at USCF, which has been incredibly hitter friendly largely due to the short fences. He's also pitched in the AL, which has generally had far more talent than the NL and is tougher to pitch in simply due to the DH (for quick comparison's sake, DH's put up a .758 OPS last year; pitchers put up a .353 OPS).

 

I would say that John Danks is, at the very least, in the conversation as one of the 10 best left handed starters in the game and he's probably one step below being an overall "Ace," like a Roy Halladay, Jon Lester, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, whatever. And I think you can probably argue that Danks is a top 5 lefty in the game based on the "proven" factor and durability, which rule out guys like Liriano, Price, Santana, Wilson.

 

John Danks is really good, and if the Sox don't pay him as if he's really good, then he's going to sign with someone else.

 

[Kalapse]

That, and the fact that he's better. Chad Billingsley has pitched his home games at Chavez Ravine for the duration of his career, which has played as a pitcher's park for pretty much the entirety of Billingsley's career. He's also pitched in the NL, which has been a weaker and generally more diluted talent wise throughout his career as well. Meanwhile, Danks has pitched his home games at USCF, which has been incredibly hitter friendly largely due to the short fences. He's also pitched in the AL, which has generally had far more talent than the NL and is tougher to pitch in simply due to the DH (for quick comparison's sake, DH's put up a .758 OPS last year; pitchers put up a .353 OPS).

 

I would say that John Danks is, at the very least, in the conversation as one of the 10 best left handed starters in the game and he's probably one step below being an overall "Ace," like a Roy Halladay, Jon Lester, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, whatever. And I think you can probably argue that Danks is a top 5 lefty in the game based on the "proven" factor and durability, which rule out guys like Liriano, Price, Santana, Wilson.

 

John Danks is really good, and if the Sox don't pay him as if he's really good, then he's going to sign with someone else.

ERA+ -- while flawed -- at least attempts to equalize data skewed by the home ballpark and has John Danks at 126 over the past 3 seasons and Chad Billingsely at 112. For as much as people have gotten on Danks for his lack of IP he has 20 more than Billingsley over that span and 213 last season.

 

Of course FIP and xFIP are not as kind, Danks' lack of K's tend to hurt him here. Though looking at the data just now it's interesting to learn that his peripherals are nearly identical to Pettitte's over the past 3 seasons.

[joeynach]

That, and the fact that he's better. Chad Billingsley has pitched his home games at Chavez Ravine for the duration of his career, which has played as a pitcher's park for pretty much the entirety of Billingsley's career. He's also pitched in the NL, which has been a weaker and generally more diluted talent wise throughout his career as well. Meanwhile, Danks has pitched his home games at USCF, which has been incredibly hitter friendly largely due to the short fences. He's also pitched in the AL, which has generally had far more talent than the NL and is tougher to pitch in simply due to the DH (for quick comparison's sake, DH's put up a .758 OPS last year; pitchers put up a .353 OPS).

 

I would say that John Danks is, at the very least, in the conversation as one of the 10 best left handed starters in the game and he's probably one step below being an overall "Ace," like a Roy Halladay, Jon Lester, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, whatever. And I think you can probably argue that Danks is a top 5 lefty in the game based on the "proven" factor and durability, which rule out guys like Liriano, Price, Santana, Wilson.

 

John Danks is really good, and if the Sox don't pay him as if he's really good, then he's going to sign with someone else.

 

After looking through a lot of information for fantasy drafts I actually think John Danks is very similar to Ricky Romero when trying to compare top left handed pitchers. I understand Danks has a few more seasons under his bealt, but the perphrials are strikingly similar. Romero is 27-18 with a 3.99 ERA, 7.3K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 over the course of 2 seasons. Those are very similar to Danks and Romero has recieved a 5 year 30M deal. I think Romero is a better comparison than Billingsley becuase of factors liked Kalapse mentioned. Romero pitches in the AL (and AL East at that) and pitches in a hitter friendly park as well.

[Kalapse]

After looking through a lot of information for fantasy drafts I actually think John Danks is very similar to Ricky Romero when trying to compare top left handed pitchers. I understand Danks has a few more seasons under his bealt, but the perphrials are strikingly similar. Romero is 27-18 with a 3.99 ERA, 7.3K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 over the course of 2 seasons. Those are very similar to Danks and Romero has recieved a 5 year 30M deal. I think Romero is a better comparison than Billingsley becuase of factors liked Kalapse mentioned. Romero pitches in the AL (and AL East at that) and pitches in a hitter friendly park as well.

Well, that's only if you can truly ignore Danks' prolonged success compared to Romero and of course service time, which you unfortunately can not. If only it were March of 2009 it'd be so much easier. The sucky thing is that the only good comparable to Danks pitching right now that I can think of would be Lester and he's just flat out better and signed a long term deal 2 seasons back. The unfortunate thing is that only 4 lefties have thrown at least 500 innings in the AL the last 3 seasons with ERA's under 4 and they're Lester, Sabathia, Danks and Buehrle. Makes it hard to find strict comparables.

[LittleHurt05]

$16 mil a year for just seems like a lot of money for Danks. I guess that might be a going rate nowadays but that just seems like a bit of an overpay to me.

[Balta1701]

$16 mil a year for just seems like a lot of money for Danks. I guess that might be a going rate nowadays but that just seems like a bit of an overpay to me.

Which is why that deal hasn't been done yet.

 

If the Sox were willing to offer that kind of deal over say, 6 years, that'd probably be enough to get it done. But we're crazy if we think a pitcher who will get $100 million if he becomes a FA in 2 years is going to extend for $40-$50 million.

[southsider2k5]

I would say that the best compromise would be to go 4 years with a vesting option that should be easily reached if Danks stays healthy. It becomes a regular team option with a large buyout if not reach so that, assuming it isn't reached which would also assume that Danks did not pitch particularly well, he would still go into free agency with a bit of change so he can still get a 1-year deal and not need to make a killing on it.

 

Somewhere around $16 mill a year at full value, so like...

 

'12 - $12 mill

'13 - $15 mill

'14 - $16 mill

'15 - $17 mill

'16 - $20 mill or $4 mill buyout, vests with 90 starts between '13-'15 or 25 starts in '15

 

Total guaranteed value is $64 mill over 4 years while the 5th year, if reached, pushes the total value to $80 million (maintaining the $16 mill per year value).

 

If Danks is healthy and pitching well, he's worth that contract and, again assuming health and all that jazz, he is still young enough that he can secure another pretty sizable deal and push his career earnings well over $100 mill.

 

If it was that easy, I think it would have been done already.

[Steve9347]

I have a hard time seeing Danks stick around with the Sox... he seems determined to find his way to free agency and get what will be a huge payday the White Sox can't match.

 

Either way, I will enjoy watching him pitch until that moment... because he is awesome.

[caulfield12]

I wouldn't give it to him...at least not the contract witesoxfan quoted.

 

I know, I know, we don't have (at the moment) any pitching prospects in our system. Daniel Hudson's gone, etc.

 

For some reason, I just have a sneaking suspicion either Edwin Jackson or Buehrle will end up staying, and that Sale will be successful in the rotation. Now it's hard to imagine what kind of salary cut Buehrle would not be insulted by, not to mention actually wanting to have Jackson back at the dollars he might command if he pitches as well for ONE entire season as he did with the White Sox (with Boras as his agent).

 

There's also no doubt that Floyd could end up pitching like anywhere from a 1-5...for indeterminate lengths of time in the season.

 

I guess I'd rather pay Buehrle $8-10 million for 2-3 more years than Danks a contract averaging $16 million. I don't dislike Danks at all...I'm just not quite sure he's going to get significantly better (anything more than a 5-10% uptick) from what he's been from 2008-2010. He's pretty darned consistent, but I just don't quite see him as the type of pitcher you build your staff around for the future. Maybe it's because he's really wet the bed in a number of starts against the Twins. Yes, there was the now-famous Black Out Game 163 victory in 2008, but since then it's been, at best, a mixed bag against Minnesota and certainly not a positive trend line.

 

Maybe if we weren't stuck with Peavy's contract going forward, we'd be able to feel a LOT more comfortable allocating that money to Danks for a long term deal extending in free agency.

 

 

[AWhiteSoxinNJ]

Danks should make no wheres close to Billingsley.

Edited March 30, 2011 by AWhiteSoxinNJ

[Steve9347]

Danks should make know wheres close to Billingsley.

This sentence... this is a sentence.

Edited March 30, 2011 by Steve9347

[witesoxfan]

After looking through a lot of information for fantasy drafts I actually think John Danks is very similar to Ricky Romero when trying to compare top left handed pitchers. I understand Danks has a few more seasons under his bealt, but the perphrials are strikingly similar. Romero is 27-18 with a 3.99 ERA, 7.3K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 over the course of 2 seasons. Those are very similar to Danks and Romero has recieved a 5 year 30M deal. I think Romero is a better comparison than Billingsley becuase of factors liked Kalapse mentioned. Romero pitches in the AL (and AL East at that) and pitches in a hitter friendly park as well.

 

But you can't compare them from a contract point of view because Ricky Romero exchanged the risk for future earnings by capitalizing on guaranteed money from the blue Jays, which is exactly what Evan Longoria did too. Had anyone suggested that the Whtie Sox resign Alexei Ramirez based on Evan Longoria's contract, they would have been laughed out of the room.

 

So sure, they may be comparable pitchers, but the contract doesn't make sense. I would also say that the future value they agreed to is about $13.1 mill - the value of his club option in 2016. Perhaps Romero keeps improving and proves that he is a better pitcher than Danks, but I tend to think that he's slightly worse due to his command issues. Either way, we can't compare his contract to the one Danks is eventually going to get.

 

If it was that easy, I think it would have been done already.

 

I wouldn't necessarily say that. I think it's possible that that the White Sox are dead set on giving him 3 years and/or far less than $16 mill at this point and Danks' side has been dead set on getting 5-6 years plus more than $16 mill. The fact of the matter is, that would be the biggest contract the White Sox have ever given to a pitcher, and it could be quite a bit more than Buehrle's contract, which is currently the biggest (at 4/$56). In base value alone, it's like 14% bigger than Buehrle's contract, and it could ultimately be like 43% bigger in value and a year longer. It's not a small contract, and not something that Reinsdorf might easily approve (especially because Danks hasn't won him a World Series...only half joking).

 

We'll just have to see how it plays out. If he won't compromise, I hope Jesus Montero ends up with the White Sox.

[Soxfest]

Danks wants alot more than Lester got and CB

[Jordan4life_2007]

But you can't compare them from a contract point of view because Ricky Romero exchanged the risk for future earnings by capitalizing on guaranteed money from the blue Jays, which is exactly what Evan Longoria did too. Had anyone suggested that the Whtie Sox resign Alexei Ramirez based on Evan Longoria's contract, they would have been laughed out of the room.

 

So sure, they may be comparable pitchers, but the contract doesn't make sense. I would also say that the future value they agreed to is about $13.1 mill - the value of his club option in 2016. Perhaps Romero keeps improving and proves that he is a better pitcher than Danks, but I tend to think that he's slightly worse due to his command issues. Either way, we can't compare his contract to the one Danks is eventually going to get.

 

 

 

I wouldn't necessarily say that. I think it's possible that that the White Sox are dead set on giving him 3 years and/or far less than $16 mill at this point and Danks' side has been dead set on getting 5-6 years plus more than $16 mill. The fact of the matter is, that would be the biggest contract the White Sox have ever given to a pitcher, and it could be quite a bit more than Buehrle's contract, which is currently the biggest (at 4/$56). In base value alone, it's like 14% bigger than Buehrle's contract, and it could ultimately be like 43% bigger in value and a year longer. It's not a small contract, and not something that Reinsdorf might easily approve (especially because Danks hasn't won him a World Series...only half joking).

 

We'll just have to see how it plays out. If he won't compromise, I hope Jesus Montero ends up with the White Sox.

 

That would be rather sweet.