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2011-2012 NCAA Basketball Thread


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QUOTE (Brian @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 12:59 PM)
Seems Illinois is fine on offense but giving up almost 40 to a Michigan team that probably doesn't belong in the top 25 is not good.

Shooting 38.9% from the field isn't all that great. Offensive rebounds were the only reason the illini were able to not lose by 30 or so. The team is playing poorly defensively and inefficiently offensively. It looks pretty clear that there will be a coaching change at the season's end, unless the illini go on a ridiculous run.

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QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 07:08 PM)
Blah that would have been a huge W for NW. Their resume actually is pretty decent for a bubble team but they got some work to do.

 

I know they added a few spots, but man does it seem like the bubble cut-off keeps getting worse & worse.

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I see people talking about ISU's chances at the tourney coming down to their last 3 conf games - have to disagree. They are currently 18-7/8-4, with this remaining schedule:

 

Mon 2/13 @ BAY (#6)

Sat 2/18 vs OKLA

Wed 2/22 vs TTech

Sat 2/25 @ KSU

Wed 2/29 @ Mizzou (#4)

Sat 3/3 vs BAY (#6)

 

Even if they just win 2 (home against OU and Tech for example), they finish 20-11/10-8, and I have little doubt that gets them in. They'd be top 4 in the conference, over .500 in what is currently looking like the 2nd or 3rd toughest conference, 20 wins, and at least one win against a top 10 team. So barring a collapse, this team is in.

 

Now, if they can pull off a win at KSU or an upset against Baylor, that just helps their seeding. They may also help themselves with a win in the B12 tourney. But they are on the inside right now, and will only fall out if they fail to win 2 of those remaining 6.

 

Big 12 will likely send 5 teams, and possibly even 6 if Texas continues its climb.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 13, 2012 -> 10:53 AM)
I see people talking about ISU's chances at the tourney coming down to their last 3 conf games - have to disagree. They are currently 18-7/8-4, with this remaining schedule:

 

Mon 2/13 @ BAY (#6)

Sat 2/18 vs OKLA

Wed 2/22 vs TTech

Sat 2/25 @ KSU

Wed 2/29 @ Mizzou (#4)

Sat 3/3 vs BAY (#6)

 

Even if they just win 2 (home against OU and Tech for example), they finish 20-11/10-8, and I have little doubt that gets them in. They'd be top 4 in the conference, over .500 in what is currently looking like the 2nd or 3rd toughest conference, 20 wins, and at least one win against a top 10 team. So barring a collapse, this team is in.

 

Now, if they can pull off a win at KSU or an upset against Baylor, that just helps their seeding. They may also help themselves with a win in the B12 tourney. But they are on the inside right now, and will only fall out if they fail to win 2 of those remaining 6.

 

 

Big 12 will likely send 5 teams, and possibly even 6 if Texas continues its climb.

Their overall profile would be extremely weak if they just beat OU and Tech. That being said I wouldn't put it by the committee to put them in the field just because of their conference record.

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QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Feb 13, 2012 -> 11:23 AM)
Their overall profile would be extremely weak if they just beat OU and Tech. That being said I wouldn't put it by the committee to put them in the field just because of their conference record.

Exactly on both parts. Plus, 10-8 would be an issue because they'd enter the B12 tourney on a 3-game losing streak. I'm not saying Iowa State needs to win out or even close, but winning one of those three final games makes them a lock.

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QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Feb 13, 2012 -> 11:23 AM)
Their overall profile would be extremely weak if they just beat OU and Tech. That being said I wouldn't put it by the committee to put them in the field just because of their conference record.

 

 

QUOTE (danman31 @ Feb 13, 2012 -> 11:27 AM)
Exactly on both parts. Plus, 10-8 would be an issue because they'd enter the B12 tourney on a 3-game losing streak. I'm not saying Iowa State needs to win out or even close, but winning one of those three final games makes them a lock.

 

So, do you two think the B12 - whose power numbers put them as the 2nd or 3rd strongest conference this year - is only going to send 3 teams to the Tourney? I just really, really doubt that. My guess is 5, with the obvious three, Iowa State and one of KSU or Texas. 4 would surprise me, and I think 3 is out of the question.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 13, 2012 -> 12:23 PM)
So, do you two think the B12 - whose power numbers put them as the 2nd or 3rd strongest conference this year - is only going to send 3 teams to the Tourney? I just really, really doubt that. My guess is 5, with the obvious three, Iowa State and one of KSU or Texas. 4 would surprise me, and I think 3 is out of the question.

That's not the point when Iowa State has such a crap non-conference resume.

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QUOTE (danman31 @ Feb 13, 2012 -> 12:47 PM)
That's not the point when Iowa State has such a crap non-conference resume.

Of course that is the point. Forget Iowa State for the moment (and I don't even disagree with you about the crappy OOC resume, by the way)... The B12 lost the two cellar-dwellers, making it an awfully tough conference. One of the three strongest this year certainly, maybe one of the two. I think there is zero chance the selction committee leaves 7 of the 10 out of the field. You can say it is irrelevant, but it won't be to them, and that is what matters.

 

Also, remember, the selection committee tends to like teams getting stronger near the end. Now, that could cut both ways for ISU; if they get creamed in all their last three games, that looks bad... but their overall success has been in the latter half of the season.

 

Or... are you saying that as of this moment, KSU or Texas make a better case? I for one think the conference games are more meaningful as a whole than the early season OOC games. And history seems to indicate the selection people do as well.

 

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 13, 2012 -> 12:23 PM)
So, do you two think the B12 - whose power numbers put them as the 2nd or 3rd strongest conference this year - is only going to send 3 teams to the Tourney? I just really, really doubt that. My guess is 5, with the obvious three, Iowa State and one of KSU or Texas. 4 would surprise me, and I think 3 is out of the question.

What I think is going to happen and what I think deserves to happen are two different things. If ISU finishes by beating just OU and Tech then they're going to have an extremely weak profile, granted I'll have to compare them to everyone else before I can say if they deserve to be in or out. That being said if we're going to compare them to a say 9-9 or 10-8 KSU team then the Cats get the advantage because of their ooc wins against LBSU and a full strength Alabama.

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And for the record NSS, last 10 games and conference rpi are two things the committee has supposedly dropped from the selection process.

 

Also, I swear it's just a coincidence that ISU happens to be the team I'm picking on this year. I'm actually rooting for them, their whole body of works just lacks quality.

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 13, 2012 -> 01:36 PM)
Also, remember, the selection committee tends to like teams getting stronger near the end. Now, that could cut both ways for ISU; if they get creamed in all their last three games, that looks bad... but their overall success has been in the latter half of the season.

 

Or... are you saying that as of this moment, KSU or Texas make a better case? I for one think the conference games are more meaningful as a whole than the early season OOC games. And history seems to indicate the selection people do as well.

That potentially weak finish is what does it for me. It's kind of unlucky scheduling. If those last 3 games are split up the resume probably looks better, but when you're in/on the bubble like Iowa State currently appears and lose your last 3 regular season games that becomes a bit of a red flag no matter who the losses were to. If the selection committee picks today they're in. I just think they're gonna need to win one of those 3 games or make the Big 12 semis to avoid their resume taking a hit at the time of year when they can least afford that.

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I think when it's all said and done Texas will be in the tourney. They are young and getting better and Barnes can only do so much to keep that talent down. But yes, I think you have it right when you talk about how tough the Big 12 is this year due to losing colorado and nebraska. Because as we've seen, even marginal teams are really tough to beat at home. Anyhoo, my production is kstate rights the ship, and them and texas finish strong and make it.

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