4/8/11 - Sox vs. Rays - 7:10 (WCIU)

[caulfield12]

I'll amend what I said. When you don't have a lefty closer and have two other capable lefty relievers, Ohman should not be in your bullpen.

 

Edwards wasn't THAT great (although he was part of StickMan, right?)...but Radinsky was absolutely nasty before injuries and Hodgkin's Disease took their toll.

 

Danks is reminding me more of Greg The Bulldog Hibbard and less someone who should be paid $16-17 million per year. WALKS!!!!

[scotty22hotty]

ugh 2 blown saves against two below average teams already...

I hope this doesn't turn into another year of live or die by the bullpen.

Especially with all of the FA bullpen help that was available.

[Soxbadger]

Ive seen Matt pitch as many times as anyone, I know that most nights he can get away with throwing just fastballs. But if you watched TONIGHT, his fastball wasnt really fooling anyone. Yes there were 2 errors, but the 3 run home run wasnt an error and that was what killed the Sox. Bad things are going to happen, but giving up 5 runs in an inning is a pretty horrifically bad thing. Im about the last person to overreact, but if you didnt watch the game tonight and feel a real sense of unease about how those fastballs were being picked up by the other teams hitters, I dont know what to say.

 

You can get away with being a 1 pitch pitcher a lot more in the 7th or 8th inning. Its an entirely different game in the 9th, when the other team is willing to pinch hit much more often.

 

There is a reason that not every player who has been a great reliever can close. Because of Matt's great previous performances Im willing to give him some time to adjust to the role, just in my opinion as closer, he will need to feature his other pitches more often to keep hitters honest.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I missed the game. Can somebody explain to me how we gave up 9 runs to this offense?

[fathom]

Danks is reminding me more of Greg The Bulldog Hibbard and less someone who should be paid $16-17 million per year. WALKS!!!!

 

I wouldn't pay Danks more than 4/48 million, but maybe that's just me. I know he'll get more than that, and it's why I can totally see him getting traded to Texas this offseason for some of their big prospects.

[Melissa1334]

And if the gun was accurate, his fastball was 94 mph tonight. Maybe AJP should leave him alone when he's getting treatment??

yea i went to the game and according to the gun he just kept throwing 94 and 95 mph fastballs, it was awful, everyone in the park knew what he was going to throw, awful

[chw42]

I think people are going more by "looks," body language, their own assumptions (positive and negative) about Thornton as closer, with most having pre-conceived notions of his ability to do the job.

 

Sometimes that ERA has been misleading, because he's given up a lot of runs over the course of his career that were inherited but not attributed to him.

 

Do you have his inherited runners scored numbers with the Sox?

 

I agree Ozzie and the team aren't panicking, but the fans and media definitely will be sounding the alarm bells. He's got to get right back out there tomorrow or Sunday and close another game or they'll have to shake things up for a week or two and see what happens.

 

Minnesota and Detroit aren't off to great starts either, but the White Sox (before last year) are a traditionally front-running team that doesn't chase teams down in the 2nd half.

 

One look at his FIP solves whatever issues you're talking about.

 

Thornton's FIP in the 9th is 2.78, even lower than his ERA (this actually doesn't care what errors were made behind him). His FIP in save situations is 3.11.

 

His career FIP is 3.5, so it's not like he's been absolutely terrible in these kind of situations.

[fathom]

I missed the game. Can somebody explain to me how we gave up 9 runs to this offense?

 

To be honest, this was a horribly disappointing loss. We should have been up by 5 or 6 runs after 5 innings, as Shields was terrible. Danks then lost it in the 6th and 7th, and was left in way too long by Ozzie. Crain saved us, but Thornton's fastball was flat as can be.

[fathom]

One look at his FIP solves whatever issues you're talking about.

 

Thornton's FIP in the 9th is 2.78, even lower than his ERA (this actually doesn't care what errors were made behind him). His FIP in save situations is 3.11.

 

His career FIP is 3.5, so it's not like he's been absolutely terrible in these kind of situations.

 

Huge difference in mentality between getting situational save opps and 9th and being the designated "closer". No one is saying that Thornton is done with as a reliever, but his closer mentality should be in question.

[caulfield12]

ugh 2 blown saves against two below average teams already...

I hope this doesn't turn into another year of live or die by the bullpen.

Especially with all of the FA bullpen help that was available.

 

You hardly ever have great bullpens just by spending on FA's. Crain was great tonight, was close to great for most of last season...but you just never know from year to year. Linebrink was one of the best set-up guys in baseball for nearly a decade, too. They did get to the playoffs in 08 with big contributions from Linebrink (first half) and Dotel to a lesser extent, but it's a crap shoot and they definitely needed to add that DH to the offense.

 

I remember the Orioles spending millions on 3-4 FA relievers and it blew up in their faces...I think it was Baez, Walker and Bradford?

Edited April 9, 2011 by caulfield12

[Soxbadger]

Here is a stat 8

 

That is the most amount of games that Thornton has saved in his entire career in a single season.

 

You can say FIP and stats as much as you want, but most of those stats were not as a closer. And closer seems to be one of those positions where not everyone can handle it. Im not saying that Thornton is a failure at all, just he was far to predictable. I personally think he can be a great closer, I just think as a closer he needs to use his other pitches more often to keep the hitters off balance. Every single guy up there was just sitting fastball and there arent many successful pitchers in the history of the game who have gotten away with only throwing 1 pitch.

 

Statistics be damned.

Edited April 9, 2011 by Soxbadger

[Melissa1334]

To be honest, this was a horribly disappointing loss. We should have been up by 5 or 6 runs after 5 innings, as Shields was terrible. Danks then lost it in the 6th and 7th, and was left in way too long by Ozzie. Crain saved us, but Thornton's fastball was flat as can be.

this. i noticed when i was there, it was flat. it didnt have that pop/zip. i was like wow, that 1st pitch didnt look fast at all, i saw it was 95 but it was really flat as were the other ones

[Jordan4life_2007]

Huge difference in mentality between getting situational save opps and 9th and being the designated "closer". No one is saying that Thornton is done with as a reliever, but his closer mentality should be in question.

 

I know one thing...I'll never question those that play the 'mentality' card when it comes to closer ever again if Thornton ultimately fails. I never thought for a second he couldn't handle the role. But it's still early. Will see.

[chw42]

Ive seen Matt pitch as many times as anyone, I know that most nights he can get away with throwing just fastballs. But if you watched TONIGHT, his fastball wasnt really fooling anyone. Yes there were 2 errors, but the 3 run home run wasnt an error and that was what killed the Sox. Bad things are going to happen, but giving up 5 runs in an inning is a pretty horrifically bad thing. Im about the last person to overreact, but if you didnt watch the game tonight and feel a real sense of unease about how those fastballs were being picked up by the other teams hitters, I dont know what to say.

 

You can get away with being a 1 pitch pitcher a lot more in the 7th or 8th inning. Its an entirely different game in the 9th, when the other team is willing to pinch hit much more often.

 

There is a reason that not every player who has been a great reliever can close. Because of Matt's great previous performances Im willing to give him some time to adjust to the role, just in my opinion as closer, he will need to feature his other pitches more often to keep hitters honest.

 

Depends. These are some successful closer's fastball usage in the past 3 seasons (not including this one).

 

Feliz - 79%

Papelbon - 77%

Capps - 75%

Broxton - 75%

Jenks - 73% (half-way kidding on this one)

Soria - 71%

Bell - 71%

Soriano - 69%

 

 

And of course, Rivera uses the cutter 87% of the time.

 

A lot of good closers depend on their fastballs. It is true that fastballs tend to be used more in the 7th and 8th innings, but the difference is not gigantic. BTW, Thornton throws his fastball 87% of the time. I'm sure the 8% difference between that and Feliz's fastball isn't drastic enough to say that closers can't just rely on one pitch to be successful.

[flavum]

I'd say it's three strikes and you're out. Thornton's got two strikes.

 

And weren't you happy when the Sox got the two extra runs so he'd have a 3-run cushion to get that first save?

 

Oh well. Get 'em tomorrow.

[Soxbadger]

Id be thrilled if Thornton would throw something other than a fastball 20% of the time.

 

That is 1 out of every 5 pitches, look at the stats from tonight and then you will see the answers you seek.

 

You just proved my argument, he wasnt even 1 for 10 (and Rivera is a freak and throwing something other than a fastball doesnt count as his cutter is his "other" pitch)

[greg775]

[

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Apr 9, 2011 -> 04:14 AM)

I know one thing...I'll never question those that play the 'mentality' card when it comes to closer ever again if Thornton ultimately fails. I never thought for a second he couldn't handle the role. But it's still early. Will see.

 

I thought he had it tonight when he threw a hard one at the letters on the outside corner that was called a strike. And that curveball that got the guy who swung at ball four.

 

I do think it's unfair we're burying him considering the pathetic defense behind him, though. I mean that was a f***ing pop up to left.

And Lexi had PLENTY of time to make a good throw.

It really is unfair to blame this on Matt, though I do think he's a bad choice to close.

Sergio baby.

 

p.s. Blaming him for this one is truly unfair.

Edited April 9, 2011 by greg775

[fathom]

Some of those closers with high fastball percentages also have lights out secondary pitches they use for strike outs, like Bell and Broxton with their sliders.

[Soxbadger]

Let me be clear, Im not blaming tonight on Thornton at all.

 

Im just really concerned he exclusively featured the fastball while giving up 5 runs, and the fastball wasnt really popping like usual. Its a game like that where you need to use your other pitches at least to keep the guy from zeroing in on the fastball.

[chw42]

Here is a stat 8

 

That is the most amount of games that Thornton has saved in his entire career in a single season.

 

You can say FIP and stats as much as you want, but most of those stats were not as a closer. And closer seems to be one of those positions where not everyone can handle it. Im not saying that Thornton is a failure at all, just he was far to predictable. I personally think he can be a great closer, I just think as a closer he needs to use his other pitches more often to keep the hitters off balance. Every single guy up there was just sitting fastball and there arent many successful pitchers in the history of the game who have gotten away with only throwing 1 pitch.

 

Statistics be damned.

 

I don't think you can just say hitters sit on one pitch in the 9th exclusively. They've been sitting on that one pitch for years and they haven't had much success with it.

 

If you think it's a mental thing, that's fine. But Thornton's been in much higher leverage situations throughout his career where the game was even more so on the line than starting the 9th inning with no outs and nobody on. I don't think you can really call Thornton weak minded after all the situations he's been in where there was absolutely no room for error.

 

[fathom]

I don't think you can just say hitters sit on one pitch in the 9th exclusively. They've been sitting on that one pitch for years and they haven't had much success with it.

 

If you think it's a mental thing, that's fine. But Thornton's been in much higher leverage situations throughout his career where the game was even more so on the line than starting the 9th inning with no outs and nobody on. I don't think you can really call Thornton weak minded after all the situations he's been in where there was absolutely no room for error.

 

I hate the cliche, but everyone who's ever pitched/manaaged in the majors talks about how hard getting outs 25/26/27 are compared to every other out.

[Soxbadger]

I disagree that there are more high leverage situations than being the pitcher to have to make the last 3 outs.

 

Sure there is a lot of pressure with the bases loaded and no outs in the 8th. But if you fail, your team still at minimum has 2 chances to pick you up. Not to mention the manager is more likely to make a switch if you get a bad match up.

 

As a closer you are the last line, it lives and dies with you.

 

Its a different situation and there is a reason where there are numerous examples of guys who were great as closers and bad as relievers or vice versa.

 

Furthermore, statistics are only good at telling you what has happened in the past. If you watched the game tonight, his fastball was pretty hittable and a guy that had no business beating Thornton hit a HR off him.

 

That wasnt the defense, that was Thornton's best pitch being destroyed by a left handed hitter.

 

Im a huge Thornton fan, but what I saw tonight was a concern, the past isnt going to change what happened tonight.

[fathom]

Well, I'm done talking about tonight's game and Thornton as a closer. Unlike last year, there's no doubt in my mind that Ozzie will be proactive in making any needed changes. Still a lot of positives about how the offense looks so far this year, but we need Humber to earn his spot on the roster tomorrow.

[chw42]

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.ph...amp;prevDate=48

 

He threw 33 pitches today, 29 fastballs, 3 sliders, 1 change. 88% fastballs is right in-line with his career average. My train of thought is...if it worked for the past three years, why not keep doing it?

 

The only problem with that today was Thornton's fastball was about a mile or two slower than what it usually is.

[chw42]

I hate the cliche, but everyone who's ever pitched/manaaged in the majors talks about how hard getting outs 25/26/27 are compared to every other out.

 

I've heard of this, I've experienced it. Believe it or not, I have played baseball before...lol.

 

But if you ask me, my heart pounds a lot more when the bases are loaded with two outs in the 8th with the tying run on third instead of starting the ninth with nobody on and a one run lead.