StrangeSox Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 GOP might not have the votes to stave off a shutdown. Democrats are opposed because the proposed bill doesn't include a DACA fix and they might not have enough Republican votes to do it on their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 (edited) https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/18/g...ublicans-345532 13 Dem votes in the Senate seems an impossible get after last week...insulting Durbin and Graham Edited January 18, 2018 by caulfield12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 looks like they don't even have 50 votes in the Senate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 04:04 PM) looks like they don't even have 50 votes in the Senate Down already 2-4 votes on the GOP side, and then McCain/Flake are always wildcards, McCain especially over military spending. Then you have Collins/Murkowski. If they have truly drawn the line on DACA, it’s going to be a crazy week ahead of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 18, 2018 Author Share Posted January 18, 2018 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 05:14 PM) Down already 2-4 votes on the GOP side, and then McCain/Flake are always wildcards, McCain especially over military spending. Then you have Collins/Murkowski. If they have truly drawn the line on DACA, it’s going to be a crazy week ahead of us. Um, there's a slightly larger issue for McCain's vote than military spending right now. He's in Arizona undergoing cancer treatment and thus cannot easily make a vote called in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 They're also holding CHIP funding hostage on this one. Might not even have the votes in the House at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 (edited) That’s not really hostage any more, with the government report recently arguing that the Program more than pays for itself...saving money over time. Every politician should be FOR that. It’s the DACA arguments that will split The GOP Congress, Trump and his base. As soon as he legalizes those 700,000, Trump is afraid he’ll lose 1/4th to 1/3rd of his core base. Then you have the hawks who can’t stand CRs and would have you believe the military’s on the verge of collapse with this short term funding strategy. Edited January 18, 2018 by caulfield12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 18, 2018 Author Share Posted January 18, 2018 QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 05:34 PM) They're also holding CHIP funding hostage on this one. Might not even have the votes in the House at this point. They were going to include that as a way to get enough Democrats to vote for this for it to pass until today when Donald Trump tweeted he did not want that included as part of a short term spending bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 What the Freedom Caucus got in exchange for supporting the CR (per HFC source): 1. Assurances the House will vote on a Pentagon funding bill that busts the military $ caps. 2. Assurances the House will work on and vote on a “conservative immigration bill” to send the Senate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 A clean DACA bill would pass right now. A clean CHIP bill would pass right now. A CR with CHIP and DACA would pass right now Why won't McConnell and Ryan bring these up for a vote? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 (edited) In the end, the pressure is going to fall on Trump on his one year anniversary. They’ll just play his comments about Obama’s lack of leadership around the 2013 shutdown on an endless loop. McConnell has twice promised to deal with DACA, as did Trump a year ago. There’s just no trust. Looks like Donnelly, Heitkamp, Manchin, McCaskill, Jones and maybe Tester crossed over, all from red states up for re-election this fall. GOP lost Graham, Flake and Paul. McCain didn’t vote. 51-48. 9 votes short. Lee from Utah, so 5 Dems vs. 4 Republicans defecting. GOP could have dealt with CHIP numerous times. Republicans honestly don’t want a DACA deal, just pretend to pay lip service to it and hope the Dems keep blinking. Dem base wants this fight, now. GOP has seven Republican cosponsors at least on the Durbin/Graham compromise bill. Edited January 20, 2018 by caulfield12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 (edited) Hot take: Trump never wanted to make a DACA deal because he fears losing his base. The far right wing of the GOP (Cotton, Goodlatte from VA, Freedom Caucus) actually wants to send all those kids and young adults back to Mexico and declare victory. I’m guessing none of them have ever even met or talked a Dreamer, nor have a desire to do so. This tweet will be hammered upon over and over from last May... Mr. Trump tweeted: “The reason for the plan negotiated between the Republicans and Democrats is that we need 60 votes in the Senate which are not there! We…” he continued, “either elect more Republican Senators in 2018 or change the rules now to 51%. Our country needs a good “shutdown” in September to fix mess!” Edited January 20, 2018 by caulfield12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mac9001 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 The longer this goes the more blame will fall on Trump, Ryan and McConnell. It's astonishing a party holding the presidency and both chambers of congress would allow their window of governance to be limited because of a funding bill. Every day this goes on significantly reduces their chances of passing any legislation of substance. You don't get opportunities like this often and wasting months just to keep the government funded instead of using your majority position to advance conservative policy is just an epic failure. They should have taken the political hit, made some deals and moved on to bigger policy goals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 QUOTE (mac9001 @ Jan 19, 2018 -> 09:59 PM) The longer this goes the more blame will fall on Trump, Ryan and McConnell. It's astonishing a party holding the presidency and both chambers of congress would allow their window of governance to be limited because of a funding bill. Every day this goes on significantly reduces their chances of passing any legislation of substance. You don't get opportunities like this often and wasting months just to keep the government funded instead of using your majority position to advance conservative policy is just an epic failure. They should have taken the political hit, made some deals and moved on to bigger policy goals. Bigger policy deals are going to be tough to pull off with all the infrastructure money given away to tax cuts for corporations and the Top 1%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mac9001 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 12:09 AM) Bigger policy deals are going to be tough to pull off with all the infrastructure money given away to tax cuts for corporations and the Top 1%. There's no shortage of buyers for US treasury debt. You can give away 10 trillion more and it won't stop a trillion dollar infrastructure plan if policy and politics align. The GOP doesn't have to worry about our fiscal state 10 years from now, they just need to get 50 votes in the senate, add trillion more to the debt and maybe you can at least hold onto the senate come the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 20, 2018 Author Share Posted January 20, 2018 QUOTE (mac9001 @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 12:16 AM) There's no shortage of buyers for US treasury debt. You can give away 10 trillion more and it won't stop a trillion dollar infrastructure plan if policy and politics align. The GOP doesn't have to worry about our fiscal state 10 years from now, they just need to get 50 votes in the senate, add trillion more to the debt and maybe you can at least hold onto the senate come the fall. They need to get 60 votes to keep the government open. They had 2 bills that could pass, guaranteed, with 50 votes, per Senate rules. They could have structured them any way they want if they were budget-neutral after 10 years. Those were the 2018 and 2017 budget resolutions. The GOP used the 2017 Budget resolution bill, stripped the details out, and put their Affordable Care Act repeal bill in that hulk. It only got 49 votes. The GOP used the 2018 Budget Resolution bill, stripped the details out, and put their tax cut package in that bill. That left them with no 50 vote budget resolution bill that could be used to pass a budget. So, they now need 10 Democratic votes + 1 for every one they lose of their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mac9001 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 12:20 AM) They need to get 60 votes to keep the government open. They had 2 bills that could pass, guaranteed, with 50 votes, per Senate rules. They could have structured them any way they want if they were budget-neutral after 10 years. Those were the 2018 and 2017 budget resolutions. The GOP used the 2017 Budget resolution bill, stripped the details out, and put their Affordable Care Act repeal bill in that hulk. It only got 49 votes. The GOP used the 2018 Budget Resolution bill, stripped the details out, and put their tax cut package in that bill. That left them with no 50 vote budget resolution bill that could be used to pass a budget. So, they now need 10 Democratic votes + 1 for every one they lose of their own. What I was trying to say is they should held off on budget reconciliation until they got everything they wanted (including obamacare repeal) and made a deal with Democrats to fund the government. Instead the they blew their load and now have to figure out how to govern with a party that's that has little interest in running a functional government. Throwing the Dens DACA would have been a low price to pay. The one person in all of this I would have expected to do his best keep the government open was Trump, but he seems content sitting on the sidelines to watch this dumpster fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 (edited) Essentially our government now is being run by a general with no political experience (Kelly), Mick Mulvaney, Marc Short (only on the job since November), Stephen Miller and Javanka, with a large helping of immigration advice from Sen. Cotton. Is it any wonder it’s totally dysfunctional? Edited January 20, 2018 by caulfield12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 2013 Trump, the blame on a government shutdown is at the top. It is a terrible thing to have on a resume. In 100 years ,nobody will blame Boehner or Reid, it is all on Obama. The right guy would get everyone in a room and make a deal. 2018 The dealmaker has the job, but now if there is a shutdown blame the democrats. I really want to know where republicans get off crying about dems not "working with them". In 8 years did they ever once work with Obama? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Kelly sunk the deal that Schumer and Trump had worked out earlier in the day. https://twitter.com/samstein/status/9545862...src=twsrc%5Etfw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 (edited) QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 07:01 AM) Kelly sunk the deal that Schumer and Trump had worked out earlier in the day. https://twitter.com/samstein/status/9545862...src=twsrc%5Etfw https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/20/i...ss-trump-352222 When it comes down to it, Kelly, Cotton and Stephen Miller are the 3 most responsible for the hardline on immigration. Mulvaney’s probably #4, with Marc Short #5. https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/19/g...18-blame-349398 Nonetheless, the failed vote led to the first official shutdown since October 2013. It came after Trump summoned Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to the White House earlier Friday in hopes of an agreement. But the New York Democrat returned without one, saying he and Trump discussed “all the areas” on which the two sides disagree. On the floor, Schumer spoke of that lunch, telling the chamber that "in my heart," he thought he had brokered a tentative agreement. "That was how far we had come. That's how positive our discussion felt," Schumer said. But "even though President Trump seemed to like an outline of the deal in the room, he did not press his party in Congress to accept it." Schumer pointed the finger squarely at the White House: "There is no one ... who deserves the blame for the position we find ourselves in more than President Trump." Edited January 20, 2018 by caulfield12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 20, 2018 Author Share Posted January 20, 2018 QUOTE (mac9001 @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 02:41 AM) What I was trying to say is they should held off on budget reconciliation until they got everything they wanted (including obamacare repeal) and made a deal with Democrats to fund the government. Instead the they blew their load and now have to figure out how to govern with a party that's that has little interest in running a functional government. Throwing the Dens DACA would have been a low price to pay. The one person in all of this I would have expected to do his best keep the government open was Trump, but he seems content sitting on the sidelines to watch this dumpster fire. Wait am I reading this right or did you describe the Democrats as "little interest in running a functional government"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mac9001 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 11:40 AM) Wait am I reading this right or did you describe the Democrats as "little interest in running a functional government"? Republicans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Seriously, is there any politician that you guys like? Someone that you really identify with and want to succeed? IMO these guys are all scum. I dont see one guy that I think really has our interests in his/her heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 (edited) QUOTE (RockRaines @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 09:32 PM) Seriously, is there any politician that you guys like? Someone that you really identify with and want to succeed? IMO these guys are all scum. I dont see one guy that I think really has our interests in his/her heart. Sanders, except he’s too old and disinterested in foreign policy. Cheri Bustos, local Congresswoman. Will Hurd and Amash from the Republican side. Jeff Flake is growing on me. I’d almost argue for Biden, but he’s also Mr. Generation Gap and the country needs a leader who can understand what it’s like for Millennials and 30-something’s today while not forgetting to respect the older generation. Pontificates way too much. Blowhard tendencies. Strong understanding of world, diplomacy, military, though. LA Mayor Eric Garcetti, maybe. Sherrod Brown. Paul Wellstone, back in the day. Howard Schultz from Starbucks, on most issues. Edited January 21, 2018 by caulfield12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts