Stat question

[BigSqwert]

Is there a stat out there that takes into account partial runs given up by pitchers? Meaning, lets say a guy gives up a base runner late in the game. The guy on first is that pitcher's responsibility but he gets pulled for a relief pitcher. The relief pitcher gives up a 2 run shot; The 1st run is charged to the first pitcher and the 2nd run is charged to the reliever.

 

What I'm looking for is a stat that would charge 0.75 to the first pitcher and 1.25 to the 2nd pitcher. The reliever should be partially penalized for giving up the inherited runner. Basically every base is worth 0.25 so if the bases were loaded we would see:

 

Man on 3rd is worth 0.25

Man on 2nd is 0.50

Man on 1st is 0.75

 

The reliever would get charged the amount above for any guys on those bases and the pitcher who put the men on base would get charged as well.

Edited April 14, 2011 by BigSqwert

[T R U]

Isn't there already enough stupid ass stats in baseball?

[chw42]

Isn't there already enough stupid ass stats in baseball?

 

Somebody's frustrated that he's falling behind.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Somebody's frustrated that he's falling behind.

 

lol. I knew you would come to the defense of Saber. It's like picking on your kid brother.

[qwerty]

Isn't there already enough stupid ass stats in baseball?

 

Im wondering why you think they still make the playoffs when no team has ever gone 0-6 and made the playoffs, much less even finished with a winning record

 

There is a better chance they finish with a winning record, but I am gonna stick with the "they aint making the playoffs" I believe in the numbers..

 

[almagest]

Inherited runners vs inherited runners allowed to score is already tracked, I believe.

[qwerty]

Inherited runners vs inherited runners allowed to score is already tracked, I believe.

 

 

Sure... but not in the way he was looking for.

[T R U]

qwerty that has nothing to do with THESE stats.. this is pointless crap that guys like chw42 beat off to

[chw42]

qwerty that has nothing to do with THESE stats.. this is pointless crap that guys like chw42 beat off to

 

 

Here's a question for you, do you beat off to your avatar?

 

Just so you know, there is nothing sabermetric about whatever sqwert brought up, so you can take off those ignorance glasses and relax.

Edited April 19, 2011 by chw42

[T R U]

Here's a question for you, do you beat off to your avatar?

 

Just so you know, there is nothing sabermetric about whatever sqwert brought up, so you can take off those ignorance glasses and relax.

 

haha relax about what? I didn't bring up sabermetrics, J4L did.. I was just pointing out that this is another stupid stat like the nonsense that you try to shove down everyone's throats every other post..

[BigSqwert]

Inherited runners vs inherited runners allowed to score is already tracked, I believe.

 

 

Sure... but not in the way he was looking for.

 

You're right qwerty. I want to see a variation of ERA that assigns inherited runners to both the original pitcher and his reliever(s).

[southsider2k5]

You would also have to find a way to weight situations. A pitcher leaving the bases loaded and two outs, versus no outs is very different to a reliever coming into a game. The inherited runners expecations are completely different.

[chw42]

haha relax about what? I didn't bring up sabermetrics, J4L did.. I was just pointing out that this is another stupid stat like the nonsense that you try to shove down everyone's throats every other post..

 

This is nothing like the stats that I use, but you wouldn't know anyways.

[Texsox]

I'm one of those that prefers to watch baseball without a math lesson and decimals to the .00001. But I do like this discussion.

 

And what would be the benefit? A human manager determined that the odds of that runner(s) scoring was greater with the starter than with the relief pitcher. If the manager is making the correct call more than half the time, it could be argued that the current system does lower the starters era because he would have given up even more runs than what a relief pitcher does.

 

Still I am drawn to the idea. SS added a great point. I think the way the stat could be compiled would fall along the lines of a + or - from probability of scoring. How far down you want to drill would be a function of computing power and building the software. Basically the simplest way would be X% of runners on 2nd with 2 outs score. What % of runners in that situation did reliever A allow? Sample size becomes a problem. But you could go so far as building in likelihood based on the batters the reliever faces. That would work out the difference in a reliever facing the 6-7-8 hitters and one facing their 2-3-4 hitters.

 

 

 

 

[BigSqwert]

I'm one of those that prefers to watch baseball without a math lesson and decimals to the .00001. But I do like this discussion.

 

And what would be the benefit? A human manager determined that the odds of that runner(s) scoring was greater with the starter than with the relief pitcher. If the manager is making the correct call more than half the time, it could be argued that the current system does lower the starters era because he would have given up even more runs than what a relief pitcher does.

 

Still I am drawn to the idea. SS added a great point. I think the way the stat could be compiled would fall along the lines of a + or - from probability of scoring. How far down you want to drill would be a function of computing power and building the software. Basically the simplest way would be X% of runners on 2nd with 2 outs score. What % of runners in that situation did reliever A allow? Sample size becomes a problem. But you could go so far as building in likelihood based on the batters the reliever faces. That would work out the difference in a reliever facing the 6-7-8 hitters and one facing their 2-3-4 hitters.

Then you'd have to figure in PHs as well.

[Texsox]

Then you'd have to figure in PHs as well.

 

Yes, it would be based on whomever was hitting. With the computing power available, how about figuring what the hitter's probability is based on what they have done in their career with that situation. If the guy achieves an RBI rate of 25% of the time and another player only 5%, that should be factored in as well.

 

[BigSqwert]

Yes, it would be based on whomever was hitting. With the computing power available, how about figuring what the hitter's probability is based on what they have done in their career with that situation. If the guy achieves an RBI rate of 25% of the time and another player only 5%, that should be factored in as well.

Wow. Talk about advanced statistics!

[chw42]

Wow. Talk about advanced statistics!

 

If you guys want to take situational run expectancy into account, then this should be useful: http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html (these are not updated for today's scoring standards, BTW)

 

So for instance, if the starter allows a single with nobody out in the 7th. Then the relevancy of this stat Sqwert is thinking of is pretty low. If you look at the run expectancies with nobody out, it's just like the way ERA is currently calculated anyway with some slight variations here or there. If you take the number of outs into consideration, then it changes the stat completely. So there's something else to take into account as well. So if Buehrle leaves the game with a guy on first and two out, and Will Ohman allows a two run home run, then Mark should really be charged for 1/4 of a run, not the whole run, mostly because the he a) pitched 2/3 of the inning anyway and b) he shouldn't be penalized completely for Will Ohman being bad.

 

As for taking hitter performances in certain situations into account, that will be extremely difficult. It's a sample size issue. Just because Brent Morel might be 1/2 with the bases loaded in the 7th doesn't mean he's a great hitter in these situations. You might be able to do it with say, Paul Konerko, because he's probably been in that situation at least 50-100 times in his career. But it's not something that could be done for everyone.

 

BTW, I think RBI and advanced statistics should never be mentioned together.

Edited April 25, 2011 by chw42

[witesoxfan]

If you guys want to take situational run expectancy into account, then this should be useful: http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html (these are not updated for today's scoring standards, BTW)

 

So for instance, if the starter allows a single with nobody out in the 7th. Then the relevancy of this stat Sqwert is thinking of is pretty low. If you look at the run expectancies with nobody out, it's just like the way ERA is currently calculated anyway with some slight variations here or there. If you take the number of outs into consideration, then it changes the stat completely. So there's something else to take into account as well. So if Buehrle leaves the game with a guy on first and two out, and Will Ohman allows a two run home run, then Mark should really be charged for 1/4 of a run, not the whole run, mostly because the he a) pitched 2/3 of the inning anyway and b) he shouldn't be penalized completely for Will Ohman being bad.

 

As for taking hitter performances in certain situations into account, that will be extremely difficult. It's a sample size issue. Just because Brent Morel might be 1/2 with the bases loaded in the 7th doesn't mean he's a great hitter in these situations. You might be able to do it with say, Paul Konerko, because he's probably been in that situation at least 50-100 times in his career. But it's not something that could be done for everyone.

 

BTW, I think RBI and advanced statistics should never be mentioned together.

 

And really, even 50-100 times isn't enough to prove significance. James Click has an article about something similar (that I'm sure you've read) entitled "What does Mike Redmond know about Tom Glavine?" that talks about sample size issues. Mike Redmond doesn't know anything the rest of the league doesn't know already, he just had more success against him than most did. If given enough plate appearances, he'd put up what he typically does against left handed pitching. Same thing pretty much applies to bases loaded situations, though you would expect IsoD to go down as pitchers are more likely to throw strikes, so average and slugging may go up as well, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that specifically.