The GREAT Daniel Hudson

[Jordan4life_2007]

I wish we played in the National League too.

 

Edwin doesn't. Last time he was there his ERA was well over 5.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Edwin doesn't. Last time he was there his ERA was well over 5.

 

Edwin is amazingly inconsistent. Not even the National League can save him.

Edited July 25, 2011 by JoeCoolMan24

[chw42]

The best stats there is the fact that he rarely walks people and gets a fair number of strikeouts. The walks indicate that his minor league numbers were no mirage and he really does have good control and the K's show that he really does have swing and miss stuff (which I saw in that short run he had with the Sox).

 

All around fail on our coaching staff/scouts for undervaluing him.

 

Even Coop thought he had messy mechanics. It wouldn't be the first time this organization screwed up in prospect evaluation.

[Quin]

Well, we better get a Rasmus type for Jackson.

[Paulstar]

I wish we played in the National League too.

That is easily the worst argument anyone can make.

 

A good pitcher is good in any league, and his 4 games vs. the AL this year have been just as good as his season stats.

 

And even if his numbers are inflated (which I see as highly unlikely unless he pitched in Petco), he'd still be able to put up more than serviceable numbers in the AL, which would be gladly welcomed for 5 years of him being under team control.

Edited July 26, 2011 by Paulstar

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

That is easily the worst argument anyone can make.

 

A good pitcher is good in any league, and his 4 games vs. the AL this year have been just as good as his season stats.

 

And even if his numbers are inflated (which I see as highly unlikely unless he pitched in Petco), he'd still be able to put up more than serviceable numbers in the AL, which would be gladly welcomed for 5 years of him being under team control.

 

A DH is generally a better hitter than the team's pitcher, but that's just my personal opinion.

[GoodAsGould]

A DH is generally a better hitter than the team's pitcher, but that's just my personal opinion.

 

Adam Dunn probably can be outhit by a few pitchers these days.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Adam Dunn probably can be outhit by a few pitchers these days.

 

Unfortunately true.

[Paulstar]

A DH is generally a better hitter than the team's pitcher, but that's just my personal opinion.

There are obviously different sets of advantages and disadvantages for pitchers in each league.

 

If your logic was correct, why haven't Halladay and Lee just completely dominated the NL with the Phillies?

[Balta1701]

There are obviously different sets of advantages and disadvantages for pitchers in each league.

 

If your logic was correct, why haven't Halladay and Lee just completely dominated the NL with the Phillies?

They do have the best record in baseball and the largest lead of any division leader.

[Paulstar]

They do have the best record in baseball and the largest lead of any division leader.

Yeah, but Lee and Halladay have not gotten any better from switching leagues. They have both continued their domination of major league hitters.

[kjshoe04]

Yeah, but Lee and Halladay have not gotten any better from switching leagues. They have both continued their domination of major league hitters.

Halladay's two years in the NL would be his second and third best ERA's of his career. Lee is having his second best year ERA wise. You could say in fact that they have gotten better in the NL.

[LittleHurt05]

Yeah, but Lee and Halladay have not gotten any better from switching leagues. They have both continued their domination of major league hitters.

 

See the below post about their ERAs in the NL. There have been numerous studies and comparisons that have shown most pitchers ERA drops when they enter the NL. (Edwin Jackson being a rare exception) I'm not saying at all that Hudson would be awful in the AL, but the difference between facing a DH or a pitcher does have an effect on a pitchers numbers over time.

[Paulstar]

Halladay's two years in the NL would be his second and third best ERA's of his career. Lee is having his second best year ERA wise. You could say in fact that they have gotten better in the NL.

Look at Halladay's numbers from 2008 till now. If you see any significant differences in domination, please let me know.

 

And lets get real. Lee has never had numbers in the NL near the numbers he put up in 08 with CLE.

[Balta1701]

See the below post about their ERAs in the NL. There have been numerous studies and comparisons that have shown most pitchers ERA drops when they enter the NL. (Edwin Jackson being a rare exception) I'm not saying at all that Hudson would be awful in the AL, but the difference between facing a DH or a pitcher does have an effect on a pitchers numbers over time.

This has been quantified though. At the peak of the steroid era it was worth about 0.9 runs on ERA. It's declined to less than that as offense and DH production have declined and it's more like a 0.6 run difference on ERA today. He'd be a starter with an ERA in the low 4's in the AL with a normal transition.

 

The advance stats also calculate things like what a pitcher's ERA would look like without these league adjustments, and that for Jackson is excellent. FIP = 2.87, suggesting he's had his ERA hurt by bad defense and a hitter's park, xFIP = 3.5.

[caulfield12]

Jackson's clearly been a much better pitcher at USCF than on the road.

 

ERA difference of nearly 2, better K/BB ratio (not even close), better IP/H ratio, all the metrics show he's better at home than away.

 

Essentially, the best case scenario is that Hudson would have put up the same numbers as Jackson (had he stayed with the Sox)...but not sure how many are buying that. It's 2012-2015 that was always where we'd get burned on this trade, but KW did come up with Humber out of thin air, and there's simply ZERO possibility Hudson would have put up Phil's consistent numbers, right?

 

The problem has never been losing Hudson/Richard. It has always been Dunn/Rios/Peavy, moreso than anything else.

 

There are very few teams in MLB that could compete in their divisions with 3 of their top 5 payroll guys having abysmal seasons statistically.

 

 

[kjshoe04]

I wish this thread would just end. With Edwin gone now, it's over. We lost the trade, no use dwelling on it.

[bigruss]

Jackson's clearly been a much better pitcher at USCF than on the road.

 

ERA difference of nearly 2, better K/BB ratio (not even close), better IP/H ratio, all the metrics show he's better at home than away.

 

Essentially, the best case scenario is that Hudson would have put up the same numbers as Jackson (had he stayed with the Sox)...but not sure how many are buying that. It's 2012-2015 that was always where we'd get burned on this trade, but KW did come up with Humber out of thin air, and there's simply ZERO possibility Hudson would have put up Phil's consistent numbers, right?

 

The problem has never been losing Hudson/Richard. It has always been Dunn/Rios/Peavy, moreso than anything else.

 

There are very few teams in MLB that could compete in their divisions with 3 of their top 5 payroll guys having abysmal seasons statistically.

Ugh, no. The reason why that Hudson/Jackson trade was bad was the contracts. Jax had 1.5 seasons left at about $8 per. Hudson had 6 seasons of team control, 3 of them league min. So for the trade to be anything close to even then Jax would have to pitch like a HOFer and Hudson (and Holmberg) would have to blow their arms out and not even pitch at all in the bigs.

[Balta1701]

I wish this thread would just end. With Edwin gone now, it's over. We lost the trade, no use dwelling on it.

There's a solid chance that in 5 years we'll look back on this deal and say it was hands down the worst deal of the KW regime. If it gets on your nerves, then step away.

[bigruss]

I wish this thread would just end. With Edwin gone now, it's over. We lost the trade, no use dwelling on it.

The biggest problem I see with the trade is that it really shows how much KW acts and thinks like a fan. This can be a good thing, as it makes you agressive, but you will get worked over by other GMs most of the time. Many fans STILL don't understand why that trade was bad.

[kjshoe04]

There's a solid chance that in 5 years we'll look back on this deal and say it was hands down the worst deal of the KW regime. If it gets on your nerves, then step away.

It's going to be either this or the Swisher trade, but it comes up in every thread around here. It's done with. I hope somehow Zach Stewart becomes awesome just so I don't have to hear the name Dan Hudson ever again.

[caulfield12]

Ugh, no. The reason why that Hudson/Jackson trade was bad was the contracts. Jax had 1.5 seasons left at about $8 per. Hudson had 6 seasons of team control, 3 of them league min. So for the trade to be anything close to even then Jax would have to pitch like a HOFer and Hudson (and Holmberg) would have to blow their arms out and not even pitch at all in the bigs.

 

 

But if you just say the trade was Humber/Frasor/Stewart for Hudson/Holmberg, that doesn't sound nearly as bad.

 

It's a very creative way to look at it....and obviously if we go to a $85-105 million payroll, it will be even more abundantly clear (how much losing Hudson is costing us from a financial flexibility standpoint), but let's not project Holmberg as being special (yet) until he repeats his 2011 success at the AA level.

 

 

[Balta1701]

but let's not project Holmberg as being special (yet) until he repeats his 2011 success at the AA level.

If nothing else, he now holds substantially higher trade value than when we used him as a throwin. He could have been dealt on his own as a key piece in a deal right now if we still had him.

[bigruss]

But if you just say the trade was Humber/Frasor/Stewart for Hudson/Holmberg, that doesn't sound nearly as bad.

 

It's a very creative way to look at it....and obviously if we go to a $85-105 million payroll, it will be even more abundantly clear (how much losing Hudson is costing us from a financial flexibility standpoint), but let's not project Holmberg as being special (yet) until he repeats his 2011 success at the AA level.

Humber should NOT be included in this evaluation. He was developed by the Sox outside of this trade, and if they liked him enough beforehand then they would've kept him anyways.

 

And no, Frasor/Stewart is crap value for Hudson/Holmberg.

[southsider2k5]

There's a solid chance that in 5 years we'll look back on this deal and say it was hands down the worst deal of the KW regime. If it gets on your nerves, then step away.

 

You have been saying for about 365 days so far, I'm sure not expecting that to change.