Thornton + Sale's struggles

[joeynach]

Obviously these two guys have really been struggling lately. The simple eye test can tell neither looks right, they are pitching way too many balls and always seem behind in the count, the gun on the TV shows their velocity down from what we are used to, and everytime they come in they seem to get hit hard right. Well I took a look at Fangraphs PitchFX data and Saber data to take a closer look and the results are pretty sick.

 

Thornton's FB velocity is down from 96.1 in 2010 to 95.5 MPH so far this year. His slider velocity is up from 83.4 in 2010 to 84.2 this year. So just stuff wise Thornton's FB velocity is down 0.6 MPH, and the difference between his FB velocity and SL velocity has narrowed by 1.4 MPH. So that alone explains performing worse than last year right. Wait till you see his periphrials.

 

Thornton's K Rate is down about from his awesome 12K/9 from 2010, hes at 10.8/9, but his BABIP is crazy. His BABIP in 2010 was .286, for his career its .294, this year its somehow .406. Thats INSANE!! Furthermore, his GB% is actually up this year too (a good thing), its at 48.5%, up from 39.2% last year. The most amazing thing yet, his HR/FB% is 28.6%!! Thats absolutly crazy, no pitcher on earth gives up a HR about 1/3 fly balls, its almost not possible.

 

Now look at Chris Sale, his FB velocity is down from 95.9 to 94.2 MPH this year, thats a nice healthy 1.7 MPH drop. Definately a reason he is worse this year. Sale's GB% is basically the same at 51%, his HR/FB% is up from 11.1% last year to 16.7% this year. His BABIP is also way up from .277 to .344, thats a huge difference. No wonder he has been bad too

 

FanGraphs says Sale should post an ERA around 3.17 (his XFIP) based on his periphrials this year. His real ERA is 5.91. Fangraphs says Thornton should post an ERA of 3.72 (XFIP) his ERA is 8.64.

 

So how can you go from having a career of being lights out to all of a sudden sucking? Lose velocity on your FB for some unknown reason, get really unlucky, and also give up a lot of HR's in a small sample size. BOOM...Thornton and Sale.

Its

Edited May 3, 2011 by joeynach

[macsandz]

It's May 2nd. Slow down.

[greg775]

I do agree with you on the eye test part. Sale and Thornton do not pass the eye test at this point of the season.

It's no fun watching either guy pitch.

 

How bout they take the approach of throwing strikes maybe?

[joeynach]

Also check this out. PitchFX data in Fangraphs shows that Thornton is featuring a ChangeUp 9.8% of the time after throwing 0 change's in 2009 or 2010. How can that be. Did Thronton really try and come out and feature a change? Or is this an error in the way the PitchFX algorithms determine pitch type from the data and its actually his slider?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?play...&position=P

[chw42]

Obviously these two guys have really been struggling lately. The simple eye test can tell neither looks right, they are pitching way too many balls and always seem behind in the count, the gun on the TV shows their velocity down from what we are used to, and everytime they come in they seem to get hit hard right. Well I took a look at Fangraphs PitchFX data and Saber data to take a closer look and the results are pretty sick.

 

Thornton's FB velocity is down from 96.1 in 2010 to 95.5 MPH so far this year. His slider velocity is up from 83.4 in 2010 to 84.2 this year. So just stuff wise Thornton's FB velocity is down 0.6 MPH, and the difference between his FB velocity and SL velocity has narrowed by 1.4 MPH. So that alone explains performing worse than last year right. Wait till you see his periphrials.

 

Thornton's K Rate is down about from his awesome 12K/9 from 2010, hes at 10.8/9, but his BABIP is crazy. His BABIP in 2010 was .286, for his career its .294, this year its somehow .406. Thats INSANE!! Furthermore, his GB% is actually up this year too (a good thing), its at 48.5%, up from 39.2% last year. The most amazing thing yet, his HR/FB% is 28.6%!! Thats absolutly crazy, no pitcher on earth gives up a HR about 1/3 fly balls, its almost not possible.

 

Now look at Chris Sale, his FB velocity is down from 95.9 to 94.2 MPH this year, thats a nice healthy 1.7 MPH drop. Definately a reason he is worse this year. Sale's GB% is basically the same at 51%, his HR/FB% is up from 11.1% last year to 16.7% this year. His BABIP is also way up from .277 to .344, thats a huge difference. No wonder he has been bad too

 

FanGraphs says Sale should post an ERA around 3.17 (his XFIP) based on his periphrials this year. His real ERA is 5.91. Fangraphs says Thornton should post an ERA of 3.72 (XFIP) his ERA is 8.64.

 

So how can you go from having a career of being lights out to all of a sudden sucking? Lose velocity on your FB for some unknown reason, get really unlucky, and also give up a lot of HR's in a small sample size. BOOM...Thornton and Sale.

Its

 

 

The problem with Thornton is that he's falling behind. He has been getting unlucky (due to Pierre, mostly), but the fact of the matter is that he's getting behind, becoming incredibly predictable, and hitters can just sit on his fastball. They were also doing that before, but Thornton was usually getting ahead, not falling behind. An 0-2 fastball at 97 is probably a whole lot different than a 96 MPH fastball in a 2-0 count.

 

Both should progress back to the mean, but there needs to be some fixing before that happens.

[jenksycat]

fire cooper

[joeynach]

It's May 2nd. Slow down.

 

Exactly the wrong attitude to have in May when your 10 games behind the division leader and have 19 losses in 30 games. Sure "Slow Down" is fine for like week 1 or 2 of the season, some guys get off to hot or slow starts. Not only is this team sinking with a gigantic financial risk for the year, but its beyond a poor start. We have our 2 "go to" guys in the pen posting down velocities for no reason (no injuries), awful luck, and inability to do basic things like throw strikes. Thats not quite the same as relax dude its game 10 in early April.

[macsandz]

Exactly the wrong attitude to have in May when your 10 games behind the division leader and have 19 losses in 30 games. Sure "Slow Down" is fine for like week 1 or 2 of the season, some guys get off to hot or slow starts. Not only is this team sinking with a gigantic financial risk for the year, but its beyond a poor start. We have our 2 "go to" guys in the pen posting down velocities for no reason (no injuries), awful luck, and inability to do basic things like throw strikes. Thats not quite the same as relax dude its game 10 in early April.

 

There are more than 5 months left in this season. Check yourself.

[Leonard Washington]

What worries me the most is their confidence.

[joeynach]

What worries me the most is their confidence.

 

Im not worried about their confidence, If I can see from their stats on Fangraphs that they have been unlucky and bad in a small sample size then so can they. My concern is why have consistent strike throwers struggled throw strikes and why have consistent fastball throwers posted lower than normal velocities this year without any mention of injury.

[witesoxfan]

For most of the Pitch F/X data, the changes are pretty much meaningless. A fastball being less than a mile per hour worse is nothing to worry about, as that will usually come back as the season progresses. The .406 BABIP is completely unsustainable and is mostly unpredictable. The main culprit is his control, as chw alluded to. He's walked 6 already and getting behind in counts will either lead to walks or balls being hit really hard, which would explain why his LD% is at 30%.

 

I'm not worried about Sale at all. He needs to improve his control a bit, but he's throwing more strikes, is striking guys out, and is throwing a ton of ground balls. He's allowed a couple homers, which he won't do as much into the future, and a few of the base hits that have been finding holes will be finding gloves into the future.

 

Really, the bullpen has gone back to not being a concern. They've been getting the job done quite a bit more recently. It would be nice if Tony Pena hit the road soon, because he is really, really bad.

[witesoxfan]

You think the Tigers are concerned about Max Scherzer's velocity? His fastball is down a full mile an hour, his slider down four miles an hour, and his changeup down 2.

 

Velocity, especially this early in the season (and yes, a month into the season is early, though not enough to worry about a 9.5 game deficit nor the factors surrounding it). That will come up as pitchers continue to get stronger and stronger.

[Andrew]

You think the Tigers are concerned about Max Scherzer's velocity? His fastball is down a full mile an hour, his slider down four miles an hour, and his changeup down 2.

 

Velocity, especially this early in the season (and yes, a month into the season is early, though not enough to worry about a 9.5 game deficit nor the factors surrounding it). That will come up as pitchers continue to get stronger and stronger.

 

 

According to chw42 in another thread - much of our team's suckitude can be explained by fan graphs and less than a 1mph difference in fastballs by Mark Buehrle and Matt Thornton.

 

So you know - there's that to think about.

Edited May 3, 2011 by Andrew

[Leonard Washington]

Im not worried about their confidence, If I can see from their stats on Fangraphs that they have been unlucky and bad in a small sample size then so can they. My concern is why have consistent strike throwers struggled throw strikes and why have consistent fastball throwers posted lower than normal velocities this year without any mention of injury.

 

Wasn't the whole thing that turned Thornton's career around is growing confidence in his stuff, and not trying to do anything fancy? To me, it looks like he's lost that. He doesn't have the same confidence in his fastball that he used to. He's trying to finesse, when that's not his style, and it looks like he's nibbling too much and he's falling behind in the count too often. I don't worry about his stuff. The velocity might be down a tick, but not by anything absurd. Sale's is down a bit more, but still not enough to have me worrying just yet, especially early in the season. As the weather warms up and they build a bit more arm strength their velocity will be fine.

 

 

[Leonard Washington]

Danks' FB is down 0.3mph

Floyd's is down 1.8mph

Buehrle's is down 0.5mph

Santos is down 1.2mph

Ohman is down 0.7mph

Jackson is down 0.8mph

Crain is down 0.9mph

 

Notice a trend? Fastball velocities are almost always down at the start of the season. That's not the problem.

[Andrew]

Danks' FB is down 0.3mph

Floyd's is down 1.8mph

Buehrle's is down 0.5mph

Santos is down 1.2mph

Ohman is down 0.7mph

Jackson is down 0.8mph

Crain is down 0.9mph

 

Notice a trend? Fastball velocities are almost always down at the start of the season. That's not the problem.

 

I really don't notice one...that jumped out anyway.

 

Santos is down???? LOL...ok.

 

Edited May 3, 2011 by Andrew

[witesoxfan]

Danks' FB is down 0.3mph

Floyd's is down 1.8mph

Buehrle's is down 0.5mph

Santos is down 1.2mph

Ohman is down 0.7mph

Jackson is down 0.8mph

Crain is down 0.9mph

 

Notice a trend? Fastball velocities are almost always down at the start of the season. That's not the problem.

 

Floyd's is down the furthest, but I think his stuff has the highest fluctuation. I seem to recall a start or two last year where he ended up topping out at around 96 too.

 

As the season goes on, pitchers' arms get in better shape and they start throwing harder.

 

Oh, and you will find similar trends to that all around baseball. I can pretty much guarantee it.

[Andrew]

Floyd's is down the furthest, but I think his stuff has the highest fluctuation. I seem to recall a start or two last year where he ended up topping out at around 96 too.

 

As the season goes on, pitchers' arms get in better shape and they start throwing harder.

 

Oh, and you will find similar trends to that all around baseball. I can pretty much guarantee it.

 

I watch like a fiend and I don't think I EVER saw Santos get over 95 on the gun until this year.

Edited May 3, 2011 by Andrew

[Leonard Washington]

As the season goes on, pitchers' arms get in better shape and they start throwing harder.

 

Oh, and you will find similar trends to that all around baseball. I can pretty much guarantee it.

Exactly.

[Leonard Washington]

I watch like a fiend and I don't think I EVER saw Santos get over 95 on the gun until this year.

I remember him being 95, 96 pretty consistently last year.

 

And I think you might have mistook my post about velocities being down. The whole point was there's no reason to worry about that this time of year unless it's massive. It's cold, guys arms aren't as loose, and they don't have the muscle strength/memory built up yet.

 

So I'm not worried about Thornton or Sale's velocity being down. That's not the issue. It's location and confidence, which are almost definitely intertwined.

[Milkman delivers]

There are more than 5 months left in this season. Check yourself.

 

I can't even fathom how stupid this train of thought is, especially after last season.

[chw42]

I remember him being 95, 96 pretty consistently last year.

 

And I think you might have mistook my post about velocities being down. The whole point was there's no reason to worry about that this time of year unless it's massive. It's cold, guys arms aren't as loose, and they don't have the muscle strength/memory built up yet.

 

So I'm not worried about Thornton or Sale's velocity being down. That's not the issue. It's location and confidence, which are almost definitely intertwined.

 

He's averaging 94.7 on the fastball.

[soxrwhite]

Sale came from a small college. Had success and immediately went to the majors. He confused hitters who only got to see him once for 1/3 of a season. I think he needs some time in the minors to become a professional pitcher.

 

Thornton? Use him in non pressure situations and get him back to where he has had success. Setting up.

 

It is too early to call this season lost but not too early to be concerned about falling any further behind. Time to start creeping to 5 or so games back by the end of this month.

[Balta1701]

Sale came from a small college. Had success and immediately went to the majors. He confused hitters who only got to see him once for 1/3 of a season. I think he needs some time in the minors to become a professional pitcher.

Sale was not confusing hitters last year, he was overpowering them.

 

I think they're more confused this year. As in "Why is this guy throwing pitches 7 feet above home plate".

 

It's all about control right now. Maybe he can find his control/release point/consistency in the minors, maybe he can find it in the big leagues, but that's the issue.

[witesoxfan]

Sale came from a small college. Had success and immediately went to the majors. He confused hitters who only got to see him once for 1/3 of a season. I think he needs some time in the minors to become a professional pitcher.

 

Thornton? Use him in non pressure situations and get him back to where he has had success. Setting up.

 

It is too early to call this season lost but not too early to be concerned about falling any further behind. Time to start creeping to 5 or so games back by the end of this month.

 

Small college or not, Chris Sale has ridiculous stuff. He's going to have success for a long time. He's not some junkballer like Ehren Wasserman or Shingo Takatsu or John Ely that came up and dominated their first time through and then they started struggling. He is seriously just having troubles with his command. Outside of last night, he had been pitching much, much better lately. I think that will continue, as opposed to him being mediocre.

 

Oh, and Thornton is in the same boat. Pitching better, still just struggling a bit with his command. He'll be fine too.