Balta1701 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (BigSqwert @ May 9, 2011 -> 03:26 PM) I don't think he gets to 500. That sorta misses the point of the thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WCSox Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (BigSqwert @ May 9, 2011 -> 12:26 PM) I don't think he gets to 500. Even if he did, I don't think that it's a magic number that will automatically get him in. There's still a good chance that he'd be in Jeff Bagwell territory at the end of his career. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 9, 2011 -> 02:35 PM) That sorta misses the point of the thread. Just saying it'll be a moot point since that's his only hope for a glimmer of a chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (BigSqwert @ May 9, 2011 -> 03:38 PM) Just saying it'll be a moot point since that's his only hope for a glimmer of a chance. "Debate topic: if unlikely event x happens, do you think correlated event y will happen or not?" "X won't happen so I'm going to remind everyone that it's unlikely." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Good discussion everyone. One of the better threads we've had here in awhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 9, 2011 -> 02:39 PM) "Debate topic: if unlikely event x happens, do you think correlated event y will happen or not?" "X won't happen so I'm going to remind everyone that it's unlikely." Leave your algebra to the math thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleHurt05 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 9, 2011 -> 02:39 PM) "Debate topic: if unlikely event x happens, do you think correlated event y will happen or not?" "X won't happen so I'm going to remind everyone that it's unlikely." If Brent Lillibridge hits 500 career home runs, do you think he will make the HOF? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (BigSqwert @ May 9, 2011 -> 02:41 PM) Leave your algebra to the math thread. A math thread? Damn can we just go back to every other thread being about firing people? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 (edited) And I'm betting there will be plenty of writers who vote deliberately/spitefully against Sheffield despite his having over 500 homers. I don't think it's the magic number it used to be. Once upon a time, Dale Murphy was thought to be a lock, but things have changed. Bagwell ended up fairly close and there's no way he makes it now. Konerko kind of falls into that Bert Blyleven category IF IF IF he can put up 500+ homers. Bert never won a Cy Young (I think a 2nd and 3rd in his best seasons?) but the long-term consistency is what did it, but it took nearly 20 years to convince the voters. However, he was known for having one of the best pitches in the game, the curveball. Paulie played on the second tier team and was in the shadow of Sosa/Frank Thomas for most of his younger years, then Magglio/C-Lee. If it wasn't for 2005, very few baseball fans, except for the hardcore ones and scouts, would be talking about him. I do agree with the Todd Helton comparison, although you have to throw out/correct for a lot of Helton's numbers because of Coors Field, at least perception wise. Granted, it's probably just as easy to hit homers and doubles at USCF, but I think a player coming from COL has an even higher numerical standard/benchmark to climb because of that field. Edited May 9, 2011 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (BigSqwert @ May 9, 2011 -> 02:26 PM) I don't think he gets to 500. To me a more interesting question is does he pass Frank as the all-time Sox homer leader? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ May 9, 2011 -> 01:47 PM) If Brent Lillibridge hits 500 career home runs, do you think he will make the HOF? Or Gordon Beckham? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scenario Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 9, 2011 -> 02:52 PM) To me a more interesting question is does he pass Frank as the all-time Sox homer leader? Or who ends up with more career homeruns... Konerko or Dunn? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ May 9, 2011 -> 03:47 PM) If Brent Lillibridge hits 500 career home runs, do you think he will make the HOF? Yes, because at his age, it would take him suddenly becoming a 40+ HR a year player for a decade, which would put him as one of the best players in baseball for several years. See, considered the hypothetical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 9, 2011 -> 03:52 PM) To me a more interesting question is does he pass Frank as the all-time Sox homer leader? If he stays healthy, yes I think he will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 I'm about 40% yes on passing Frank and about 10% on 500 homers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (scenario @ May 9, 2011 -> 03:55 PM) Or who ends up with more career homeruns... Konerko or Dunn? If Dunn averages 36+ HR/year over this contract, he gets to 500. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilliamTell Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (iamshack @ May 9, 2011 -> 02:39 PM) Good discussion everyone. One of the better threads we've had here in awhile. This is a good discussion. If he were to get to 500 home runs it'll be interesting to see what happens. Right now I'd put in in the Buehrle route. Definitely a White Sox Hall of Famer and should get his number retired. But I think he has a better shot than Buehrle at making the Hall of Fame. Not that it matters much but PK has 4 All-Star appearances and an ALCS MVP!!!!!! What a great trade it was to get Konerko for Cameron. Konerko 1854 hits, 366 homers, 1154 RBI's, .283 BA., .359 OBP, .505 SLG. I'm not going to figure out Cameron's stats, but I would've never thought Konerko would be here this long and contribute this much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (WilliamTell @ May 9, 2011 -> 03:12 PM) This is a good discussion. If he were to get to 500 home runs it'll be interesting to see what happens. Right now I'd put in in the Buehrle route. Definitely a White Sox Hall of Famer and should get his number retired. But I think he has a better shot than Buehrle at making the Hall of Fame. Not that it matters much but PK has 4 All-Star appearances and an ALCS MVP!!!!!! What a great trade it was to get Konerko for Cameron. Konerko 1854 hits, 366 homers, 1154 RBI's, .283 BA., .359 OBP, .505 SLG. I'm not going to figure out Cameron's stats, but I would've never thought Konerko would be here this long and contribute this much. That's because Mark has zero chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (BigSqwert @ May 9, 2011 -> 04:14 PM) That's because Mark has zero chance. Let me put it this way...M-56 getting to 300 wins would make him a much more sure thing than Konerko getting to 500 HR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleHurt05 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (scenario @ May 9, 2011 -> 02:55 PM) Or who ends up with more career homeruns... Konerko or Dunn? Dunn only has 16 less homers and is 4 years younger. As long he finally breaks out of this slump, he should easily finish with more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleHurt05 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 9, 2011 -> 03:00 PM) Yes, because at his age, it would take him suddenly becoming a 40+ HR a year player for a decade, which would put him as one of the best players in baseball for several years. See, considered the hypothetical. Well played. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 9, 2011 -> 03:16 PM) Let me put it this way...M-56 getting to 300 wins would make him a much more sure thing than Konerko getting to 500 HR. And the odds of that happening are much, much less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 9, 2011 -> 04:19 PM) And the odds of that happening are much, much less. I'd reply that they're only less because I don't think M-56 wants to try for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 9, 2011 -> 03:22 PM) I'd reply that they're only less because I don't think M-56 wants to try for it. Even if you assume Mark tried to pitch until his 40's, his career arc isn't looking as pretty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleHurt05 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 9, 2011 -> 03:03 PM) If Dunn averages 36+ HR/year over this contract, he gets to 500. There's a question for you, if Dunn gets to 500, is he in the HOF? He's one of the best power hitters of the era, but that's all he was good at. Career average of .250, bad defender, gonna be a DH the next few seasons. He has never been in the playoffs, has never even finished top 20 in MVP voting. But he will hit that 500 homer mark and he's never been directly accused of PEDs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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