witesoxfan Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Scary times in the upper midwest right now. Due to record snowfalls and the subsequent snow melts in eastern Montana as well as the continuing snowfalls and rains from here on out, the Missouri River will continue to rise. Currently, it's only coming down stream at like 75,000 cubic feet per second and the water is already pretty high, and that will increase to 120,000 on Thursday and possibly up to 150,000 at some point down the line. If it gets to 150,000, the water level is expected to reach 23 feet. Our garage gets water at 21 feet. So, in the next couple days that I have off from work, we will be building a 2 foot sandbag wall around our house in hopes of preventing any of the water from seeping to the house. Fun, fun, fun. It's possible that the rate of the current will actually scour the river floor and shore, so it may not get up to 23 feet, but that creates its own set of problems as well - possible homes being washed away, though I think that's absolutely worst case scenario. The second problem that occurs is, even if the flooding doesn't reach our neighborhood, the storm drains are currently shut to prevent any further flooding in the area. If we get a heavy rain, we'll encounter flooding due to that as well because none of the precipitation will be able to go anywhere. I do believe they have some pumps set up to hopefully divert much of that stuff away from the area, but it wont change the fact that there will certainly be areas of standing water everywhere. Pierre and Fort Pierre are going to have it much worse. Bismarck is used to having about 60,000 CFS come through at pretty much all times, so while this increase will cause flooding, it shouldn't effect the greater Bismarck area but instead only a few homes that are along the river. The flooding in Pierre could possibly reach halfway into the town and cause a ton of damage to many of the hotels around the area, including the nicest hotel in town which naturally is on the river. Fort Pierre has it worse than that because 90% of the town is at the same elevation, which is just above the level of the river. All I can ask of you guys is that you pray. It's a bit surreal, seeing a dry backyard and dry surrounding areas and knowing that in 2 weeks, all of this s*** could be completely underwater. It's not much fun and it's more than a bit scary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted May 30, 2011 Author Share Posted May 30, 2011 (edited) Here's an article describing some of it with an image of the Oahe Dam near Pierre/Ft. Pierre http://www.argusleader.com/article/2011053...e-river-s-wrath Edited May 30, 2011 by witesoxfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted May 30, 2011 Author Share Posted May 30, 2011 Pierre's newspaper has a Flickr that can be followed as well. It's a bit scary seeing the water where it's at, knowing full well that it's going to rise way, way beyond that. http://www.flickr.com/photos/capitaljournal/ Gov Dennis Daugaard is going to have constant updates on the flooding in South Dakota - http://twitter.com/#!/sdgovdaugaard This is a TV station within Bismarck/Mandan that is going to have constant updates too. http://www.kxnet.com/?setCity=bis& oh, and apparently not 75,000 but 80,000 CFS currently in the Missouri River Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Is this as bad as it was two years ago? Or worse? Best of luck - hopefully all the hard work will keep your home safe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lostfan Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Balta called this, this past winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted May 30, 2011 Author Share Posted May 30, 2011 QUOTE (kapkomet @ May 30, 2011 -> 03:58 PM) Is this as bad as it was two years ago? Or worse? Best of luck - hopefully all the hard work will keep your home safe. Way worse than it was two years ago. As far as I can tell, two years ago it was water in the streets and storm drains backing up. This is going to do some serious damage to homes all along the river. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted May 30, 2011 Author Share Posted May 30, 2011 QUOTE (lostfan @ May 30, 2011 -> 04:14 PM) Balta called this, this past winter. Oh, and my dad was wondering why in March when things started to thaw and they knew how much snow melt was to come why they didn't gradually increase the flow of the river during that time frame. It seems that they just let it go and now it's going to have its way with several communities along the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ May 30, 2011 -> 07:46 PM) Oh, and my dad was wondering why in March when things started to thaw and they knew how much snow melt was to come why they didn't gradually increase the flow of the river during that time frame. It seems that they just let it go and now it's going to have its way with several communities along the way. Are there control dams on that river? Otherwise, the early melts saturated the aquifers, so that this years la Nina rains had no where to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 30, 2011 -> 09:42 PM) Are there control dams on that river? Otherwise, the early melts saturated the aquifers, so that this years la Nina rains had no where to go. Both the Garrison and Oahe Dams are supposed to be monitoring flood control as well as electrical output. I don't know if that's the answer you're looking for, but that's what I got. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ May 31, 2011 -> 12:24 AM) Both the Garrison and Oahe Dams are supposed to be monitoring flood control as well as electrical output. I don't know if that's the answer you're looking for, but that's what I got. Apparently they're now opening the Garrison dam for the first time in its 57 year history Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ May 30, 2011 -> 07:46 PM) Oh, and my dad was wondering why in March when things started to thaw and they knew how much snow melt was to come why they didn't gradually increase the flow of the river during that time frame. It seems that they just let it go and now it's going to have its way with several communities along the way. Here's an on-topic reply with info from the WSJ. They were doing increased releases for a while. You've just gotten as much rain in 3 weeks as you normally get in a year and that would have overwhelmed any conceivable flood control system. "We've never seen anything like this," said Jim Scarlett, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service office in Aberdeen, S.D. "The flooding is going to be all the way to St. Louis, and it's going to be high all summer." .... Col. Bob Ruch, commander of the Corps's Omaha, Neb., district, said engineers had been releasing water from the reservoirs at a measured pace to clear way for snowmelt. But rains in eastern Montana over the last three weeks equaled a full year's normal total, he said, and "it filled up the space we created to take on the snowmelt, which still sits up in the mountains." Now, the real danger is a rapid melt. To prepare for that, the Corps must act quickly. It began warning communities last week and is slowly increasing the amount of water in the river to give them time to prepare. The dam at Gavins Point, on the Nebraska-South Dakota border, is the lowest of the six dams in the system. It is already releasing water at a rate of 81,000 cubic feet a second, above its record of 70,000 cubic feet a second in 1993. Col. Ruch said that by June 15, the Corps expected to be sending 150,000 cubic feet a second through the dam, which was completed in 1957. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Thoughts are with ya wite Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 2, 2011 -> 11:49 AM) Apparently they're now opening the Garrison dam for the first time in its 57 year history The one thought that's been bouncing around the back of my mind for a few days now is wondering if there are going to be any complications with the dams holding at full capacity for as long as they have. I'm going to assume that they won't simply just give and that we get about 6 hours to head for the hills, but that can't be good for them. I also didn't realize how big the Garrison Dam was. I know that the Oahe Dam was the 2nd largest earthen dam in the world (next to the Aswan in Egypt), but I had no idea that the Garrison was the 4th largest. The river has officially gone above flood stage - 16.66 ft as of 30 minutes ago and that's going to continue to rise for a while. Have to hope that the levees hold up, that they can pump rain water out as fast as they say they can (they are saying they can pump out 5 inches of water an hour), and that there's not too much groundwater infiltration. Oh, and for fun's sake, here's the link to the water elevation. http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph....&gage=biwn8 It should update continuously as they take the levels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Fort Peck, further up the river from Garrison Dam, was 14 feet higher in April this year than it was in April 2010 according to this article from the Billings Gazette. Two interesting little blurbs from the piece... Oahe releases averaged 13,900 cfs in March. which affects Pierre/Ft. Pierre. They could have released more starting in March, as Pierre can handle anywhere between 30-45 relatively comfortably. The note which is more interesting to me is this... Garrison releases were lowered from 26,000 cfs to 15,000 cfs during March. Releases will remain near 15,000 during the month of April. So in March and April, they were releasing water at 15,000 cfs. From about mid-June until probably August, they will be running at 10 times that. During the flood scare from 2 years ago when they had water on the road, the biggest problem was an ice jam down the river which created a mini-dam which then created a mini-reservoir behind it. We didn't have those jams this year, partly, I'm sure, because the flows were so slow, but it seems to me if you know that you can break those jams up, then you should do so if they present themselves and you should prepare yourself for this scenario. It seems to me that there was going to be some flooding no matter what, especially with the record rainfalls in eastern Montana. It also seems to me that the Corps of Engineers really screwed the pooch in doing everything they could to prevent as much flooding as possible. They can't just run water at 60,000 cfs at their own desire because that obviously affects flows downstream, but getting in coordination with everyone and running it around 35-40K cfs seems like it may have at least been a possibility and would have created some extra room within the reserves so they could be running water at 70-80K cfs right now as opposed to the 110-120K cfs they are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 On June 3rd, the height of the river was 15 feet in Pierre. As of right now, it's 18.28. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Some town in SW Iowa is being evacuated due to an earthen dam breaching. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 (edited) QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jun 6, 2011 -> 02:11 PM) Some town in SW Iowa is being evacuated due to an earthen dam breaching. That is really scary stuff. The whole purpose of having dams in this situation is to cause controlled flooding. If the dam can't hold the water back, then that town is in some very serious trouble. A few images and a video... Garrison Dam opened for the first time ever. It's actually gorgeous. Wish it didn't mean what it did. Couple of a whirlpool/vortex that has formed north of Pierre. This is the legion cabin right off the river in Pierre. There is usually a huge beach and tons of people and lots of beer to be had. Atleast there's still a little beach left. Ampitheater in Steamboat Park in Pierre. There is normally a 3 foot jump from the edge of the stage to the ground. Gives a whole new meaning to the term crowd surfing. Just by the spillway at the Oahe Dam in Pierre. It's hard to make out, but the water is rushing out at 140K cfs in this video (assuming it shows, I don't know if it will for everybody). 140 cfs is more than a million gallons of water per second. (hoping it works) http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=...34&comments Edited June 8, 2011 by witesoxfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 Rumor has it that at some point during the next 3 weeks, Garrison Dam is supposed to let out ~180 cfs. Rumor has it. "Fact" says that sustainted periods of 150 cfs puts the river at 21.5 (without considering river scouring, which will surely take away some river floor, but also take away some property, sandbags bedamned). 120 puts it at about 19. 90 was about 15-17...I'd guess it's normally around 30-60 around here, but who keeps track when it's not a threat and when it's not noticeable?. 180 cfs will do damage. Over an extended period, (I would guess) it will exceed the levee already put in place, which would make me wonder why they had the Nat Guard put a levee up in the first place. Overall, 180 cfs would f*** a lot of s*** up. That's why it's rumor, instead of fact (hopefully). It's eery driving over the river right now. Motherf***er is so wide right now. Wish Thoreau was alive. He'd have great s*** to write about it before he was swept away. If it DOES go to 180 for a sustained period of time, the river itself might/will get close to my (parents') house. They/I live 1/3 mile away. When they bought the house in 2003, the last thing on their minds was "but what if the river floods?" f***. Oh, and it's been raining south of here, from 10 miles south of Bismarck to 10 miles south of Pierre, for the better part of the night. That increased waterflow will do nothing good for Pierre, nor any of the cities below it on the Missouri (nor any of those on the Mississippi, though I'm sure this is generally small to them due to the number of tributaries). Thankfully it got them instead of us You know that feeling you get, when you drive over a river and the water seems like it's like a mile below you, and you wonder, "why did they build this bridge so high?" (in Chicago, I don't know; for lost, the Chesapeake may do justice; for Heads and all other Iowans and those in Western Illinois, you may have a much, much better grasp) it's like that river or body of water, that was always so far below, but now, it's about a half a mile closer, and, oh, it's twice as wide. The half a mile closer isn't exactly accurate (that's all perception), but to suggest it is twice as wide, well...we can thank the National Guard and anybody else that put levees in that it only seems twice as wide and isn't actually 3 times as wide. (as of now...it has already flooded the golf course next to it) I say some of that like it's over. F***. It's just begun. We've just done all we can do. It's going to get to 21 feet. All we can do is hope that it doesn't get past 22, because then about 1/6 of Bismarck has water on their living rooms. Pierre is already f***ed, and that rain tonight hurt like hell. Any rain in eastern Montana isn't going to help. Any snow in East-Central Montana is not going to help. All that is going to help is an early July. The absolute worst part is, I can do nothing about this. I was contemplating going to Pierre to help out them out last Sunday, but didn't have Monday off...wasn't going to matter. Even if I do have Monday off this week, it's better off treating it like normal Bismarck until it isn't normal Bismarck again. Hope the garden grows well! (f***) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigklita Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 When I flew into Omaha is was scary because all you saw was water, water, water and then all of the sudden it runway popped out of all the water. It is very close to flooding the airport here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted June 23, 2011 Author Share Posted June 23, 2011 Bismarck lost its first house today. Hopefully it's the last, but I have my doubts. Oh, and due to the most recent rains in eastern Montana, river levels have spiked in Minot, ND and there is immediate evacuation for several homes in the area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkman delivers Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 I've been reading this thread with a lot of interest/concern. It's weird how I can care how this turns out for a person I've never actually met. I hope everything goes well for you guys, wite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted June 23, 2011 Author Share Posted June 23, 2011 Thanks Milk. It's messed up. Oh, and here's Minot's hydrology outlook. Expected to raise 4 feet in a weeks' period. That is messed up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkman delivers Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Anything new? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 Starting to decrease the outputs along the river around here. After running at 150 cfs in Bismarck and 165 in Pierre, they are down to 140 and 150 respectively. The river is down a bit as a result, but they are weaning off like they are instead of dropping a ton due to some problems they had in Fargo. They ran the river at like 120 cfs and then once they saw the worst of it was behind, they decreased it to like 75 or something. That drastic of a shift actually caused all of the loose debris and silt within the river itself to settle very quickly and the lack of flow down the river caused for some river backup and flooding. So they continue to go slow until the threat has passed, and hopefully we don't have to deal with the flooding again. They are planning on going down to 135 on July 12th here and hope to be down to 120 by the end of the month. That would be nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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