Wow, Humber. You fo' realz?

[iamshack]

I just wanted to point out that I've seen a lot of pitchers come around over the years, and plenty of guys with the makeup and stuff of Humber have had sustained success. He looks like a legit 3rd or 4th option.

I think he can be a 2 actually.

 

What do his peripherals suggest? I know he hasn't been striking out a lot of guys, but isn't his FIP pretty solid still?

[Steve9347]

I think he can be a 2 actually.

 

What do his peripherals suggest? I know he hasn't been striking out a lot of guys, but isn't his FIP pretty solid still?

Low BABIP suggest some luck, but no one's saying he's a sub 3 era. A WHIP under 1.00 is hard to sustain over this amount of time with some level of legit talent.

[BearSox]

Well the scouting report when he was drafted says comfort zone 91-93. So he's maybe lost 1-2 mph off of that?

 

I'm not buying the stuff argument. His stuff looks pretty sharp to me.

Are we watching the same guy? Plus curve, below average to average change, and below average fastball. However, his command has been solid, he changes speeds, and works fast. He's like a less polished, right handed Buehrle, except he has a plus pitch (but also a screw in his elbow). He could be a solid 3 or 4 guy. But I tend to think this is more of a hot streak/first time around the league than anything else.

 

Would I trade him if someone in need like the Yankees offered something good? Yes. But I would have no problem letting him pitch while he's hot and hold onto him in the future as well to see what he is all about.

 

Also, either I have bad eyes, or it looks to me that Humber's frame has changed quite a bit since Rice/TJS. He looks relatively skinny with not much in the legs. Not exactly a work horse frame (not to say he can't be a work horse).

[iamshack]

Are we watching the same guy? Plus curve, below average to average change, and below average fastball. However, his command has been solid, he changes speeds, and works fast. He's like a less polished, right handed Buehrle, except he has a plus pitch (but also a screw in his elbow). He could be a solid 3 or 4 guy. But I tend to think this is more of a hot streak/first time around the league than anything else.

 

Would I trade him if someone in need like the Yankees offered something good? Yes. But I would have no problem letting him pitch while he's hot and hold onto him in the future as well to see what he is all about.

 

Also, either I have bad eyes, or it looks to me that Humber's frame has changed quite a bit since Rice/TJS. He looks relatively skinny with not much in the legs. Not exactly a work horse frame (not to say he can't be a work horse).

See, I see him more as Gavin Floyd-lite but with a better mental makeup. No deer in the headlights bs.

[Milkman delivers]

Didn't Loaiza pitch decently for a few years after that great season? I don't expect Humber to continue this forever, but I see no reason why he can't go on to have a few average seasons. And an average pitcher is nice to have.

[danman31]

His FIP is 3.49. xFIP is 4.16. Those numbers aren't as pretty as his ERA, but I don't think anyone would complain with either of those ERAs over a full season. Obviously if he finishes with an ERA above 4 this year that means he got pounded pretty good to finish the year, but you know what I mean.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I think he can be a 2 actually.

 

What do his peripherals suggest? I know he hasn't been striking out a lot of guys, but isn't his FIP pretty solid still?

 

lol. Based on 10 starts you think he can be a legit #2? Ala Matt Cain, Cole Hamels or Max Scherzer? Please let me get some of what you're drinking/smoking.

[iamshack]

lol. Based on 10 starts you think he can be a legit #2? Ala Matt Cain, Cole Hamels or Max Scherzer? Please let me get some of what you're drinking/smoking.

Why do you always have to go COMPLETELY to the most extreme perspective you possible can? I mean on our staff, I think he can be our #2. I did not say the #2 for the Phillies, or the Giants, or the Tigers. And yes, based on 10 starts. Based on being a former #3 overall draft pick. Based on him shutting down the Yankees and Red Sox fairly well.

 

If I can't base it on the starts he has had, his draft position, his stuff, his scouting report, what the hell are you basing your opinion on?

[greg775]

Are we watching the same guy? Plus curve, below average to average change, and below average fastball. However, his command has been solid, he changes speeds, and works fast. He's like a less polished, right handed Buehrle, except he has a plus pitch (but also a screw in his elbow). He could be a solid 3 or 4 guy. But I tend to think this is more of a hot streak/first time around the league than anything else.

 

Would I trade him if someone in need like the Yankees offered something good? Yes. But I would have no problem letting him pitch while he's hot and hold onto him in the future as well to see what he is all about.

 

Also, either I have bad eyes, or it looks to me that Humber's frame has changed quite a bit since Rice/TJS. He looks relatively skinny with not much in the legs. Not exactly a work horse frame (not to say he can't be a work horse).

 

At the very least Humber looks like he can make a living in the big leagues in some capacity if he stays healthy.

There are a lot of awful, awful middle relievers and set up guys in the bigs. He should be able to hang around if he stays healthy.

He's definitely been great. I see the AP story led with asking him if he should be on the all star team. That could be the kiss of death for Mr. Humber, who answered it beautifully.

 

By JIMMY GOLEN

AP Sports Writer

BOSTON (AP) — The way he’s been pitching, a reporter told Phil Humber, people are starting to talk about him making the All-Star game.

The White Sox right-hander just shook his head.

“You don’t hear me talking about it,” he said after shutting the Boston batters down for seven innings Tuesday night to lead Chicago to a 10-7 victory over the Red Sox. “I don’t really have any comment on that (the All-Star game). I’m just thankful for the results so far.”

Edited June 1, 2011 by greg775

[Jordan4life_2007]

Why do you always have to go COMPLETELY to the most extreme perspective you possible can? I mean on our staff, I think he can be our #2. I did not say the #2 for the Phillies, or the Giants, or the Tigers. And yes, based on 10 starts. Based on being a former #3 overall draft pick. Based on him shutting down the Yankees and Red Sox fairly well.

 

If I can't base it on the starts he has had, his draft position, his stuff, his scouting report, what the hell are you basing your opinion on?

 

On our staff? Then you obviously don't think much of it. Unless you're saying going into next year if we trade Danks and Jackson/Buehrle walk.

[iamshack]

On our staff? Then you obviously don't think much of it. Unless you're saying going into next year if we trade Danks and Jackson/Buehrle walk.

I think he can pitch to a 3.5 ERA or so.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

We have this guy already through his prime, and the start of his declining years. We already have the perfect contract on Humber right now.

Edited June 1, 2011 by JoeCoolMan24

[caulfield12]

I don't get it.

 

Just because we're all a little like KW and fall in love with guys like Verlander or Edwin Jackson (last year) throwing in the high 90's or even 99-102 late in games (well, Verlander mostly), that doesn't mean we should totally dismiss Humber.

 

Can someone look at his average FB velocity when he started a couple of games for the Mets and Royals in the past?

 

PERHAPS he has let up a little bit on the fastball in order to get both better command and movement?

 

Remember that old tried and true theory that there needs to be a 10+ MPH differential between the fastball and offspeed stuff?

 

As long as that exists, there's no reason he shouldn't be able to be successful. So much of pitching, as we all know, is based on confidence. Obviously, it could all be a mirage, like Jams Baldwin in the first half of 2000, where he had a tremendous amount of balls hit into play were turned into outs before the ASB and later in the season, they became base hits.

 

I remember Jon Garland throwing 92-93 and sometimes 94, but he was always much more successful with the two-seam sinker at 89-91 MPH. Danks, at times, has gotten his FB into the 93-94 MPH range as well, but he usually pitches more effectively when he doesn't overthrow and sacrifices velocity for command.

 

What good is having the highest average fastball on the team if you can't harness your offspeed stuff, like Edwin?

 

He doesn't have that "devastating" type of knockout pitch like Loaiza's cutter or Contreras' forkball, but his curveball is definitely a "plus" pitch right now and that will work with an average fastball (with movement) and one other pitch...every time.

 

By the way, when exactly did Humber have the TJ surgery? Does anyone know?

 

Philip Humber, RHP: With a strong spring, Humber could factor into the wide-open, but still competitive, battle for a Twins rotation spot. Drafted out of Rice University with the third-overall pick in 2004 and signed for a $3 million bonus, his pro career got off to a sluggish start as he posted a 4.99 ERA at Class A Advanced St. Lucie in 2005 before undergoing Tommy John surgery in July. He's yet to really come back in pre-surgery form, but his trademark curveball is still a plus pitch. He spent most of '07 in New Orleans, where he was 11-9 with a 4.27 ERA in 25 starts, striking out 120 batters in 139 innings. He finished the summer with three games in New York, posting a 7.71 ERA in seven innings. He is no longer the untouchable can't-miss prospect he was when he signed in '04, but at 25 years old and now two years removed from his surgery, 2008 could be a big one for him. - Lisa Winston --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

So he had TJ in July of 2005 and made it to the big leagues with the Mets two years later...before being included in the Santana deal.

 

It would be interesting to see why a team so noted for their pitching/development (Minnesota) gave up on him so quickly. KC, well, they've always had pitching issues.

 

 

Edited June 1, 2011 by caulfield12

[iamshack]

July 19, 2005.

[qwerty]

I think he can pitch to a 3.5 ERA or so.

 

Year in, year out?

[caulfield12]

Year in, year out?

 

 

To my knowledge, we've never had a starter pitch that well on a consistent basis since Alvarez, Alex Fernandez and McDowell, I'd guess Buehrle earlier in his career or Danks 08-10 are closest.

 

Not in the steroids age.

 

I would think pitching at a 4.00-4.50 clip would be GREAT for Humber. Anything below 4.00 is simply gravy.

 

[iamshack]

Year in, year out?

Well, that would be a bit aggressive I suppose. Especially in our ballpark. Perhaps a 3.75 - 4.00 or so would be a safer guess. I do think he has the stuff to do it. And I do think if he were to pitch to that it's fair to say he could be a #2.

 

Put it this way...I think he's closer to a #2 than a #4.

 

Let's assume for a moment that he can fulfill the potential he had when he was drafted. #4 starters are not normally drafted #3 overall in the draft. #1-#2 pitchers normally are.

 

Call me a believer.

[----------]

Sometimes, pitchers figure it out late. Look at colby lewis. He didn't figure it out until last year.

[caulfield12]

Well, that would be a bit aggressive I suppose. Especially in our ballpark. Perhaps a 3.75 - 4.00 or so would be a safer guess. I do think he has the stuff to do it. And I do think if he were to pitch to that it's fair to say he could be a #2.

 

Put it this way...I think he's closer to a #2 than a #4.

 

Let's assume for a moment that he can fulfill the potential he had when he was drafted. #4 starters are not normally drafted #3 overall in the draft. #1-#2 pitchers normally are.

 

Call me a believer.

 

 

I'll split the difference with you and call him a 3.

 

There have been a lot of arguments about Danks and Floyd, and what they legitimately should be defined as...there are probably 10-20 statistics you could throw at it, but I have always preferred to think for a 1 or 2 starter that as a fan, you always feel about 80-85% confident they'll win every time they go out on the mound.

 

With Humber, you're starting to feel that same level of confidence he'll throw a quality start and/or keep the ballclub in the game, but I think there's no way you can begin calling him a 2 until he's had 30 starts under his belt.

 

Could he be a 2? Perhaps. You'd like to see a higher strikeout rate...but he does pitch pretty efficiently, compared to Danks this season especially.

 

And you keep waiting for that BABIP number to level out...the Blue Jays' announcers compared him to a "poor man's Pat Hentgen" in terms of his build, his uniform # and his stuff, so anything resembling that would be awesome.

 

 

 

 

[Quin]

Sometimes, pitchers figure it out late. Look at colby lewis. He didn't figure it out until last year.

 

Cliff Lee was mediocre (1 good season) before his Cy Young season.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?play...&position=P

 

His velos have stayed the same basically. His cutter has gained a few MPH, but everything else is pretty much the same.

 

However, this year he is throwing his fastball 6% less than career avg, his cutter slightly less, his changeup 9% more than any other year, and his slider almost 5x as much.

 

AJ must call a better game than he ex-battery mates.

[caulfield12]

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?play...&position=P

 

His velos have stayed the same basically. His cutter has gained a few MPH, but everything else is pretty much the same.

 

However, this year he is throwing his fastball 6% less than career avg, his cutter slightly less, his changeup 9% more than any other year, and his slider almost 5x as much.

 

AJ must call a better game than he ex-battery mates.

 

If AJ has anything to do with turning things around with Humber this year, he's pretty much worth his salary. Although I'm guessing most would prefer to give credit to Don Cooper.

 

Also, does anyone believe that Tyler Flowers would have had the same effect? I guess we'll never know. But you can be pretty sure that KW wasn't willing to risk it in an "All In" year, so to speak. On that subject, has anyone seen quotes from Humber about who he credits for his turnaround? Just having the confidence of being presented the opportunity to have a regular slot in a rotation?

 

He's probably never going to put up a 725 OPS again, but AJ has been a lot better recently.

 

 

 

It took until last year, when he was with the Kansas City Royals, for Humber to believe again.

 

‘‘I think I turned a corner last year with Kansas City,’’ Humber said. ‘‘They gave me a chance. I felt comfortable. It’s about relaxing. Sometimes I put too much pressure on myself. It’s relaxing and letting things work for you. I don’t think I shook off A.J. [Pierzynski] more than once or twice.’’

 

Pierzynski said Humber, whom the Sox claimed from the Oakland Athletics in January, made it easy.

 

‘‘He was great,’’ Pierzynski said. ‘‘The way the game ended Friday [a ninth-inning loss] especially, he just shut them down. He was the story of the game.’’

Toni Ginetti, Chicago Sun-Times

Edited June 1, 2011 by caulfield12

[witesoxfan]

Sometimes, pitchers figure it out late. Look at colby lewis. He didn't figure it out until last year.

 

Colby Lewis went to Japan and totally changed the way he pitched. Colby Lewis is an apple, Phil Humber is an orange.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?play...&position=P

 

His velos have stayed the same basically. His cutter has gained a few MPH, but everything else is pretty much the same.

 

However, this year he is throwing his fastball 6% less than career avg, his cutter slightly less, his changeup 9% more than any other year, and his slider almost 5x as much.

 

AJ must call a better game than he ex-battery mates.

 

FGs page is confusing. They are talking about curveballs and changeups on his PitchFX page, but his main page shows fastball at just above 40, slider and change both at 16, and curveball at 22. And his slider and changeup have the same velocity. He's not an easy guy to hit right now.

 

---

 

I'm getting a weird flashback to 2008 Gavin Floyd. Floyd was amazing ERA wise in the first half of that season, but all of the peripherals said he'd come back to earth. Then in the second half, those peripherals improved quite a bit, but due to mere regression, he was getting "unlucky." I think something similar will happen to Humber as well. You absolutely have to keep him in the rotation.

 

I really didn't like the guy nor did I think he had a shot in hell at keeping this job, but at this point, you have to stick with him. And you can't go to a 6 man rotation permanently, otherwise the pitchers' bodies will adjust to that schedule and they won't be able to convert back to pitching on 4 days rest. That creates a monstrosity of a problem.

 

Either Jackson goes for a minor package or Danks goes for a major one. That's something that actually sorta does have to happen relatively soon.

[Texsox]

Perhaps the hardest thing in baseball is evaluating a hot pitcher. And after watching so many come and go, I am the most pessimistic person when it comes to long range predictions.

[southsider2k5]

Are we watching the same guy? Plus curve, below average to average change, and below average fastball. However, his command has been solid, he changes speeds, and works fast. He's like a less polished, right handed Buehrle, except he has a plus pitch (but also a screw in his elbow). He could be a solid 3 or 4 guy. But I tend to think this is more of a hot streak/first time around the league than anything else.

 

Would I trade him if someone in need like the Yankees offered something good? Yes. But I would have no problem letting him pitch while he's hot and hold onto him in the future as well to see what he is all about.

 

Also, either I have bad eyes, or it looks to me that Humber's frame has changed quite a bit since Rice/TJS. He looks relatively skinny with not much in the legs. Not exactly a work horse frame (not to say he can't be a work horse).

 

For the record, 91-93 is not "below average fastball".