Slumps and Adam Dunn: they've met before

[witesoxfan]

Cmon it's June 3. It's more than a slump. The man has been horrific.

If he turns it around, great for our team, but I wouldn't assume anything.

 

Jesus Greg, you don't f***ing get it. It's a slump. I'm going to assume that you looking at a sample size that is 3.4% the size of the sample size I'm looking at says you're wrong. The sample size I look at says that Adam Dunn is a good hitter who strikes out a lot, walks a lot, and hits a lot of home runs, making him a big time Three True Outcome player. You even thinking that he's going to be this bad for the rest of the season is a joke in itself.

 

There's a stretch in 2008 from March 31 to May 12 - .209/.352/.400/.752, 36 G (all starts). Only 4 doubles and 6 home runs. Compared to those other stretches which I mentioned earlier, he hit for a bit of power and walked more, and hit for a slightly better average...that's about it.

 

Shortly thereafter, from June 2 to June 30th, Dunn put up this - .155/.336/.393/.729, 26 G, 25 GS. Again, walking and running into a few, and nothing else whatsoever. Seriously...he had 13 hits that month - 3 singles, 5 doubles, 5 homers.

 

That's two 25+ game slumps within the same half of the same season where Dunn wasn't garbage, but was not good at all. The difference between those and the slump he is currently in is that he found a way to make himself useful during those ones. He hasn't done that yet. It was also in the first half for those of you concerned about it being late in the year.

 

He's pressing right now and it's causing him to miss a lot of balls and to be overly aggressive at the plate. I think he'll calm down and he'll figure it out and he'll end up OPSing around .925 in the second half. He'll realize that being a DH really isn't that bad and that you actually get to rest as opposed to beating up your body on a regular basis and it's simply a matter of keeping busy and warm while staying in tune with the game itself.

 

BTW, his OPS in 2008 ended up at .898.

Edited June 3, 2011 by witesoxfan

[typewritermender]

Isn't Slumps & Dunn a Country duo?

[southsider2k5]

ChuckGarfien

This is insane. RT @ckamka Adam Dunn this season in 213 PA: 71 K. Nellie Fox 5-yr span 1958-62 in 3478 PA: 61 K

 

[greg775]

Jesus Greg, you don't f***ing get it. It's a slump. I'm going to assume that you looking at a sample size that is 3.4% the size of the sample size I'm looking at says you're wrong. The sample size I look at says that Adam Dunn is a good hitter who strikes out a lot, walks a lot, and hits a lot of home runs, making him a big time Three True Outcome player. You even thinking that he's going to be this bad for the rest of the season is a joke in itself.

 

There's a stretch in 2008 from March 31 to May 12 - .209/.352/.400/.752, 36 G (all starts). Only 4 doubles and 6 home runs. Compared to those other stretches which I mentioned earlier, he hit for a bit of power and walked more, and hit for a slightly better average...that's about it.

 

Shortly thereafter, from June 2 to June 30th, Dunn put up this - .155/.336/.393/.729, 26 G, 25 GS. Again, walking and running into a few, and nothing else whatsoever. Seriously...he had 13 hits that month - 3 singles, 5 doubles, 5 homers.

 

That's two 25+ game slumps within the same half of the same season where Dunn wasn't garbage, but was not good at all. The difference between those and the slump he is currently in is that he found a way to make himself useful during those ones. He hasn't done that yet. It was also in the first half for those of you concerned about it being late in the year.

 

He's pressing right now and it's causing him to miss a lot of balls and to be overly aggressive at the plate. I think he'll calm down and he'll figure it out and he'll end up OPSing around .925 in the second half. He'll realize that being a DH really isn't that bad and that you actually get to rest as opposed to beating up your body on a regular basis and it's simply a matter of keeping busy and warm while staying in tune with the game itself.

 

BTW, his OPS in 2008 ended up at .898.

 

Look I hope you are right. All I see is a big guy who strikes out a ton and hasn't earned a penny of his salary yet, has fewer homers than a stick named Lillibridge and makes me sick watching him on MLB.com.

Edited June 3, 2011 by greg775

[Iwritecode]

Being more of a student of the game than a stat-man, the interesting part of that conversation was Frank talking about how the mental part of the game changes when you DH. That podcast is a must-listen.

 

Frank became a full-time DH in 1998 and his stats were pretty bad compared to prior years.

 

But on the other hand Jim Thome wasn't a full-time DH until he came to the Sox in 06 and had a pretty typical year.

[Balta1701]

Frank became a full-time DH in 1998 and his stats were pretty bad compared to prior years.

 

But on the other hand Jim Thome wasn't a full-time DH until he came to the Sox in 06 and had a pretty typical year.

Wasn't the Hurt, you know, hurt for a couple years prior to 2000?

[TheBigHurt]

You even thinking that he's going to be this bad for the rest of the season is a joke in itself.

 

Dammit wite, you BETTER be right. How DARE you set up a scenario where greg could possibly end up being right??? If Dunn never comes out of this this season... the moment the season is over, I'll be paying you a visit.

 

[southsider2k5]

1-41. The fuse is lit.

[LittleHurt05]

Can we now stop b****ing about his last 40 ABs vs. LHPs and look at the 1600 at-bats against lefties before that???

[Leonard Washington]

I'm torn on my thoughts about Dunn. My initial thoughts were as follows:

 

Adam Dunn brings a ton to this team, but it's totally possible there's going to be a fairly significant adjustment period to the new league and the new position (or lack thereof). We've seen plenty of guys have trouble changing leagues, and we've seen plenty of hitters have trouble shifting to DH. Hopefully Dunn doesn't suffer from a double whammy of the two, because that could get ugly. His tendencies to strike out a lot and hit for low average already leave him susceptible to unfair scorn from a statistically traditional fanbase. Any struggles that magnify those issues could make for a terrible first impression.

 

My post was here in a blog that I haven't had any time to update with a new job. http://southsidemanifesto.blogspot.com/201...-im-debbie.html

 

The other predictions are pretty accurate too, unfortunately. But I still expect a turnaround from Dunn.

[greg775]

His tendencies to strike out a lot and hit for low average already leave him susceptible to unfair scorn from a statistically traditional fanbase.

 

I may be statistically traditional but I know strikeout totals when I see them and my eyes tell me he hasn't done squat and it's June 4.

Yes I know he's drawn some walks.

[whitesoxfan101]

Can we now stop b****ing about his last 40 ABs vs. LHPs and look at the 1600 at-bats against lefties before that???

 

Umm no. He's not going to continue sucking like this, but the trend says he's inept against lefties right now. Nobody is saying don't let him hit against them ever, we're just saying don't let him hit against them in close and late scenarios. Particularly as a pinch hitter.

[Leonard Washington]

I may be statistically traditional but I know strikeout totals when I see them and my eyes tell me he hasn't done squat and it's June 4.

Yes I know he's drawn some walks.

Well, I posted that under the assumption he'd remain somewhat consistent in his ISO. Traditional or not, he's been horrible. But I'm still holding out some hope (although it's depleting) that we didn't sign Pat Burrell.

[Real]

better pitching in the AL is kicking his ass. I suspect he'll show improvement next season.

 

the pitching in the AL is better than the pitching Morel faced in AAA, yet he's sporting a decent average.

 

NL > AL transition is NOT an excuse for Dunn

[Balta1701]

the pitching in the AL is better than the pitching Morel faced in AAA, yet he's sporting a decent average.

 

NL > AL transition is NOT an excuse for Dunn

I don't know that anyone is "Making excuses" for Dunn. At this point, everyone knows we need him hitting...but we're all sorta wondering if its just mental and something that will correct or if Adam Dunn is genuinely physically incapable of being where he was last year...which would be...bad.

[Real]

I don't know that anyone is "Making excuses" for Dunn. At this point, everyone knows we need him hitting...but we're all sorta wondering if its just mental and something that will correct or if Adam Dunn is genuinely physically incapable of being where he was last year...which would be...bad.

 

are you serious? lol, everyone is making excuses for him

[southsider2k5]

are you serious? lol, everyone is making excuses for him

 

Giving reasons why something is happening isn't making excuses. It is having a rational conversation without worthless hyperbole.

[Real]

Giving reasons why something is happening isn't making excuses. It is having a rational conversation without worthless hyperbole.

 

reasons without factual basis are excuses

[Jordan4life_2007]

reasons without factual basis are excuses

 

Didn't you read Wite's initial post? He gave us facts. Plenty of them. No human being alive will deny that Dunn has been anything but bad so far. Wite showed us a consistent history of Dunn struggling over a sustained period of time only to get his numbers in the end. Now he's not hitting 40 HRs. More than likely not even 35. But there's still reason to believe he can turn it around and be a major factor for this team the rest of the way.

[southsider2k5]

reasons without factual basis are excuses

 

All of those things have a factual basis.

[Jordan4life_2007]

There has to be a word out there that eludes me in describing Dunn. Pathetic? No. Disgusting? No. Deplorable? No. Despicable? No. Abomination? No. Heinous? No. I will come up with something soon. Something that really sticks.

[Balta1701]

There has to be a word out there that eludes me in describing Dunn. Pathetic? No. Disgusting? No. Deplorable? No. Despicable? No. Abomination? No. Heinous? No. I will come up with something soon. Something that really sticks.

From now until he snaps out of it I'm just going to refer to him as "Boo."

[Jordan4life_2007]

Atrocity? Damnit. Not good enough. I will resume my search.

[Felix]

There has to be a word out there that eludes me in describing Dunn. Pathetic? No. Disgusting? No. Deplorable? No. Despicable? No. Abomination? No. Heinous? No. I will come up with something soon. Something that really sticks.

Dunn is Dunn.

[Yoda]

There’s perhaps one or two posters out there that still believe Dunn will make it well enough where this 1/3 of baseball will be balanced out when it’s all said and done. I wholeheartedly believe they must be drinking something that should be outlawed and be prohibited from making such assumptions until they are hazed with an intervention on how to “accept things as they are”. If serious attention is not received then harm to that person’s health or psyche can be at risk.