New blog post about Hawk, "Moneyball," Sabermetrics, etc

[3GamesToLove]

http://whatkindofbloghasitbeen.wordpress.c...on-is-an-idiot/

 

This is my first baseball-related piece on my blog, but I was pretty satisfied with it. I'm sure I wasn't the only one who rolled his eyes at Hawk's random shot at "Moneyball" during today's telecast. Check it out, let me know what you think.

 

[Cali]

I don't think you can discredit the fact that Beane's A's choked EVERY YEAR in the playoffs. I'm sure there are plenty of A's fan (and if I were one I image I'd fall into this category as well) that are kinda sick of the whole Moneyball thing cause it brought them nothing but heartbreak. I swear, if I only had two choices and two choices ALONE: Miss the playoffs or Get in the ALDS and get eliminated every time like the A's, no fantasy scenario where one of those times you win--you're out every time by the first round, I'd take miss the playoffs.

 

The A's and more recently the Twins have kinda proven that in the playoffs big slugging and 100 mph fastballs win out in the end over the scrappy guys who play the "right way"/.OBP heavy teams.

 

And in some cases (Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies...) Money wins come October.

[iamshack]

http://whatkindofbloghasitbeen.wordpress.c...on-is-an-idiot/

 

This is my first baseball-related piece on my blog, but I was pretty satisfied with it. I'm sure I wasn't the only one who rolled his eyes at Hawk's random shot at "Moneyball" during today's telecast. Check it out, let me know what you think.

 

Nice job!

 

I would love to hear Hawk elaborate on this topic.

[bigruss]

I don't think you can discredit the fact that Beane's A's choked EVERY YEAR in the playoffs. I'm sure there are plenty of A's fan (and if I were one I image I'd fall into this category as well) that are kinda sick of the whole Moneyball thing cause it brought them nothing but heartbreak. I swear, if I only had two choices and two choices ALONE: Miss the playoffs or Get in the ALDS and get eliminated every time like the A's, no fantasy scenario where one of those times you win--you're out every time by the first round, I'd take miss the playoffs.

 

The A's and more recently the Twins have kinda proven that in the playoffs big slugging and 100 mph fastballs win out in the end over the scrappy guys who play the "right way"/.OBP heavy teams.

 

And in some cases (Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies...) Money wins come October.

Most of the teams that win have some big time OBP players though.

 

And if I was going to choose between playoffs or no playoffs, well that's pretty easy imo, you always go to the playoffs. You may not be as talented, but if your hot you can win it all.

[Cali]

Those 2001/2002 Oakland team's were RIDICULOUS. I thought for sure one of those would at least MAKE the Series and probably win, but in crunch time they choked. Kinda crazy cause they had Hudson, Mulder and Zito in their PRIME. Scary s***....

[lostfan]

I feel like so many people miss the point of advanced stats so the entire "controversy" for lack of a better word is a misnomer. Baseball has ALWAYS been a game that's heavy into stats so it's not like it's anything new... all the percentages and things that you see are the result of actual games being played and the marking of trends and whatnot. Without them, you'd basically just be pulling stuff out of your ass. Some of the more "mainstream" sabermetric stats are pretty straightforward, not even hard to understand at all. They're not different stats, they're better stats. And yes I understand how stat geeks can really come off as treating stats as gospel, and I roll my eyes too when it's obvious to the world that Player X has sucked hardcore and someone tries to make an excuse for him with his BABIP but that's not what I'm talking about. To just flat-out reject them just because you don't like them so you can just stubbornly go with your "gut" or whatever (the whole "clutch hitting" thing comes to mind) doesn't make any sense at all.

[lostfan]

Also, the Red Sox are a pretty SABR-oriented team, like the blog says (nice job, btw). The difference between them and the A's is the budget.

 

I'm not sure how it's even really arguable that getting guys on base is a big factor in scoring runs and winning games, though.

[southsider2k5]

Steroids sure help that Moneyball, don't they?

[greg775]

I feel like so many people miss the point of advanced stats so the entire "controversy" for lack of a better word is a misnomer. Baseball has ALWAYS been a game that's heavy into stats so it's not like it's anything new... all the percentages and things that you see are the result of actual games being played and the marking of trends and whatnot. Without them, you'd basically just be pulling stuff out of your ass. Some of the more "mainstream" sabermetric stats are pretty straightforward, not even hard to understand at all. They're not different stats, they're better stats. And yes I understand how stat geeks can really come off as treating stats as gospel, and I roll my eyes too when it's obvious to the world that Player X has sucked hardcore and someone tries to make an excuse for him with his BABIP but that's not what I'm talking about. To just flat-out reject them just because you don't like them so you can just stubbornly go with your "gut" or whatever (the whole "clutch hitting" thing comes to mind) doesn't make any sense at all.

 

Good post.

I don't mind the new stats, but s***, sometimes batting average deserves to be cited as a worthy stat.

Juan Pierre's batting average doesn't suggest he should be DFA'ed. Brent Morel's OBP suggests he might learn how to draw a few more walks.

[witesoxfan]

I'd also like to point out that while the Red Sox are a SABR team, they are not run in a Moneyball fashion. The entire point of Moneyball is getting an obtaining assets that are undervalued. The A's haven't forgotten about OBP - no team should - but Coco Crisp would not have been a member of the A's 10 years ago, and he sure as hell wouldn't have 24 steals (Ray Durham is quoted in Moneyball saying something like "In Chicago, you were applauded if you stole a base and applauded if you were caught stealing so long as it was a good attempt. In Oakland, if you steal, you better be safe because you are scolded if you are caught, close or not"). Right now, it seems that defense and doubles hitters are undervalued by baseball. The problem is that the translation of defense statistics (which are very subjective and are somewhat dependent) to actual results varies wildly. There are better ways to track defense, but there is nothing that translates as well as offensive numbers do. Pitching is similar to that as well, but pitching numbers translate too, though ERA can be a bit misleading at times.

[The Ginger Kid]

I feel like so many people miss the point of advanced stats so the entire "controversy" for lack of a better word is a misnomer. Baseball has ALWAYS been a game that's heavy into stats so it's not like it's anything new... all the percentages and things that you see are the result of actual games being played and the marking of trends and whatnot. Without them, you'd basically just be pulling stuff out of your ass. Some of the more "mainstream" sabermetric stats are pretty straightforward, not even hard to understand at all. They're not different stats, they're better stats. And yes I understand how stat geeks can really come off as treating stats as gospel, and I roll my eyes too when it's obvious to the world that Player X has sucked hardcore and someone tries to make an excuse for him with his BABIP but that's not what I'm talking about. To just flat-out reject them just because you don't like them so you can just stubbornly go with your "gut" or whatever (the whole "clutch hitting" thing comes to mind) doesn't make any sense at all.

well said. You're right, stats have always been around and always valued. Hell, trading cards with stats are damn near as old as the game itself.

[clyons]

That blog entry was well written. I'm sure Hawk probably does qualify, but as some have pointed out in this thread, not all Moneyball critics are blinders-wearing, old-timer Traditionalists.

[Chicago White Sox]

Juan Pierre's batting average doesn't suggest he should be DFA'ed.

What the f*** are talking about? Juan Pierre's .262 BA tells you he is a below average contact hitter and that advanced stats and scouting are necessary to tell the whole story. Even a basic stat like SLG will tell you that is one of the emptiest batting averages in baseball. Add in his .321 OBP and a roughly 50% CS rate and we can quickly conclude that Juan Pierre is one of the worst hitters in baseball. Whether you DFA is if you think he can get significantly better, both offensively and defensively fairly soon, and that comes down to scouting. IMO, he looks like he's lost a step, which can be the beginning of the end for a speed based player. I think most scouts would agree and I seriously doubt any team would trade anything of value for him, be it talent or finacial considerations.

 

Regardless, batting average tells you nothing about Juan Pierre but to investigate further.

[YASNY]

What the f*** are talking about? Juan Pierre's .262 BA tells you he is a below average contact hitter and that advanced stats and scouting are necessary to tell the whole story. Even a basic stat like SLG will tell you that is one of the emptiest batting averages in baseball. Add in his .321 OBP and a roughly 50% CS rate and we can quickly conclude that Juan Pierre is one of the worst hitters in baseball. Whether you DFA is if you think he can get significantly better, both offensively and defensively fairly soon, and that comes down to scouting. IMO, he looks like he's lost a step, which can be the beginning of the end for a speed based player. I think most scouts would agree and I seriously doubt any team would trade anything of value for him, be it talent or finacial considerations.

 

Regardless, batting average tells you nothing about Juan Pierre but to investigate further.

 

I read Greg's remark as it should have had "but he still should be" at the end and that it was so obvious he didn't need to elaborate further. I could be wrong, but that's how I took it.

 

ETA: I see that I was wrong. Oh well.

 

[Kyyle23]

I'd also like to point out that while the Red Sox are a SABR team, they are not run in a Moneyball fashion. The entire point of Moneyball is getting an obtaining assets that are undervalued. The A's haven't forgotten about OBP - no team should - but Coco Crisp would not have been a member of the A's 10 years ago, and he sure as hell wouldn't have 24 steals (Ray Durham is quoted in Moneyball saying something like "In Chicago, you were applauded if you stole a base and applauded if you were caught stealing so long as it was a good attempt. In Oakland, if you steal, you better be safe because you are scolded if you are caught, close or not"). Right now, it seems that defense and doubles hitters are undervalued by baseball. The problem is that the translation of defense statistics (which are very subjective and are somewhat dependent) to actual results varies wildly. There are better ways to track defense, but there is nothing that translates as well as offensive numbers do. Pitching is similar to that as well, but pitching numbers translate too, though ERA can be a bit misleading at times.

 

 

That is exactly what I thought. The A's were running a tight budget and had to go after low value, high OBP guys. The Red Sox throw money at the best SABR players available. Not quite the same thing. Moneyball didnt win two world series in Boston. Money did

[Disco72]

That is exactly what I thought. The A's were running a tight budget and had to go after low value, high OBP guys. The Red Sox throw money at the best SABR players available. Not quite the same thing. Moneyball didnt win two world series in Boston. Money did

 

You and lostfan are right on the "money" aspect of moneyball. The stats approach was used to identify undervalued assets in baseball so that Oakland could compete with a subpar payroll.

 

I actually think among actual baseball fans (those that watch or go to games consistently and read about their teams, especially on message boards), a lot of the "newer" stats are pretty well established. Sure, the casual fan may not know what WAR is, but I'm pretty sure 90% of the posters here do.