Sox scouting Brandon Beachy

[Eminor3rd]

Like I said, he's a nice player, but despite the speed (stolen bases), I would really prefer a leadoff guy with an OBP better than that. As Balta mentioned before, it "feels" like another Lee for Podsednik, but it really doesn't make any sense for the Sox to do this.

 

I would too, I just don't know that there's one available.

[Disco72]

I would too, I just don't know that there's one available.

 

I agree, there probably isn't a high OBP, "traditional" leadoff hitter available. I would rather the Sox not spend ($ or talent) to acquire a traditional leadoff guy and just find someone with a high OBP that can handle the role.

[elrockinMT]

Where is Scott Podesednik? Injured?

[chw42]

Isn't Beachy's upside pretty minimal?

 

If his upside is his 10 K/9 and 2 BB/.9 ratios, that's pretty damn good.

[Balta1701]

If his upside is his 10 K/9 and 2 BB/.9 ratios, that's pretty damn good.

Beachy is a guy that the Braves seem to suddenly love who just came out of no where.

[chw42]

Beachy is a guy that the Braves seem to suddenly love who just came out of no where.

 

His stuff isn't dominating either. But results are results. From the looks of it, he's got incredibly good control to go along with a good fastball.

[Balta1701]

His stuff isn't dominating either. But results are results. From the looks of it, he's got incredibly good control to go along with a good fastball.

Legitimate UDFA.

If I used the word “stud” to describe Beachy, odds are most owners would be surprised and argumentative. A stud they may have never heard of? Ridiculous. If you don’t want to believe that Beachy has been ever so studly, you should look at where he ranks amongst NL starters in key pitching categories. Better yet, let me look at those numbers for you, the busy reader, and break them down in an easily digestible fashion.

 

 

Strikeouts and Walks

When it comes to strikeouts, we can’t just look at raw totals when evaluating Beachy since he missed time with an oblique injury. Using K/9 instead of raw strikeouts, we can see that Beachy ranks second in the NL, behind only the magnificent Zack Greinke. You read that right, America, Beachy ranks ahead of aces like Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw, and the Braves’ own Tommy Hanson.

 

Just like we did above, it makes more sense to use a rate stat like BB/9 to gauge Beachy’s place among pitchers in the National League. If my fifth-grade counting skills are still intact, Beachy has the 26th best BB/9 in the NL, which doesn’t seem all that impressive until you remember his strikeout totals. His walk rate is good enough to land him in fifth place in K/BB, behind the aforementioned Greinke, along with Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Cliff Lee.

 

FIP

Putting his strikeouts, walks, and home runs together, we see that Beachy has a top-20 FIP in the NL. Why so low on the list? Well, Beachy likes to pitch up in the zone, resulting in a good deal of fly balls and thus, homers.

 

Today, he went up against the Brewers – you know, the team with the best offense in the National League last year. The knocks against Beachy have been that his stuff is pedestrian. He lacks an obvious knockout pitch, and while he’s listed at 6’2/210, that seems generous, so there’s not a lot of projection there. However, Beachy shoved his “pedestrian” stuff right down the Brewers’ throats today, and ended up giving up just one run on four hits over six innings, striking out seven Milwaukee hitters in the process. He made one mistake to Rickie Weeks, but besides that, he dominated a really good Brewers offense.

 

And honestly, he showed off the kind of repertoire that makes the “pedestrian” stuff label seem obsolete. His fastball was 90-93 and he showed the same average velocity as the likes of Matt Cain, Chad Billingsley, and oft-hyped teammate Tommy Hanson in their first starts of the season. He threw 14 change-ups of varying speed, ranging from 78 to 84, and mixed them in with great effectiveness. He threw two breaking balls – a curve and what PitchFx classified as a cutter but is really more of a slider. The curve showed good break, and while it’s not a power hook (averaging around 74 MPH), it gets good enough movement and he commands it well.

 

How many major leaguer pitchers can sit in the low-90s, throw four pitches for strikes consistently, and feature two different breaking balls that are each effective in different ways? And how many of those are routinely knocked for lacking the stuff necessary to get hitters out on a regular basis? I’m going to go with zero.

 

Beachy is quickly transforming from a nice underdog story into a how-did-we-all-miss-the-boat-on-him type. He’s been getting professional hitters out since the day he signed, and at this point, there’s far more evidence to support the idea that Beachy is going to be a quality Major League starter than there is that he’s an overachiever who is going to get exposed against good competition. He faced some really good competition today, and he destroyed them.

LLink

[Eminor3rd]

I agree, there probably isn't a high OBP, "traditional" leadoff hitter available. I would rather the Sox not spend ($ or talent) to acquire a traditional leadoff guy and just find someone with a high OBP that can handle the role.

 

I'm all about that, IF we fire Ozzie so he doesn't insist on making whoever that person is steal every time.

[GreenSox]

Yeah, because we all know getting Podsednik was a horses*** acquisition.

He's not worth Quentin -that's the issue. We gave away far more in talent for Pods than we received in return: but we took the salary savings and signed Iguchi and AJ. And we had a lot more power on the team then. Totally different circumstance.

 

[caulfield12]

Yeah, that's the problem with trading Quentin.

 

We were able to discard Magglio, C-Lee AND Valentin (and basically get by without Frank Thomas) because we 1) signed Dye, 2) had a number of players with "good" pop like Crede, Rowand, AJ, Everett, Uribe, etc.

 

That would leave the majority of power numbers coming from Dayan, Konerko (who's certainly going to cool off at some point) and THEORETICALLY Adam Dunn.

 

They're at least one hitter short, if not 2.

 

Bourn would be an upgrade, but how he helps long-term isn't clear, because basically he's getting more and more expensive (just like Quentin) and unless 2012 is another "All In" year, which seems impossible at this point, renting Bourn for just a season makes little sense in the big picture perspective.

 

QUentin for Beachy, that makes a TON of sense. But a move I'm sure the Braves are hesitating on more and more.

 

 

[Balta1701]

Yeah, that's the problem with trading Quentin.

 

We were able to discard Magglio, C-Lee AND Valentin (and basically get by without Frank Thomas) because we 1) signed Dye, 2) had a number of players with "good" pop like Crede, Rowand, AJ, Everett, Uribe, etc.

 

That would leave the majority of power numbers coming from Dayan, Konerko (who's certainly going to cool off at some point) and THEORETICALLY Adam Dunn.

 

They're at least one hitter short, if not 2.

 

You're down a hitter? Allow myself to introduce myself.

[GreenSox]

The Sox basically gave away Ryan Sweeney. The only difference between Sweeney and Bourne is 40 or so steals. Trade Quentin for 40 steals? Uh, no.

We need a Pierre upgrade...but it doesn't cost your best (or 2nd to best) power guy to gain that.

 

And those guys who slap-hit, if their OBP falls much below .340, as it does for most of them on a regular basis (including Bourne), their value erodes.

Edited July 13, 2011 by GreenSox

[caulfield12]

Looks like with Beltran available that will cool down the CQ market a bit.

 

The White Sox are one of the teams being listed as potentially interested in paying Mr. Beltran $6 million to play out the remainder of the season. Guess he'd have to play CF again in that scenario...which would continue to the trend of the White Sox acquiring veteran CFers who aren't really fit for everyday play at that position anymore (Mackowiak, Erstad, Griffey Jr., etc.)

[Eminor3rd]

The Sox basically gave away Ryan Sweeney. The only difference between Sweeney and Bourne is 40 or so steals. Trade Quentin for 40 steals? Uh, no.

We need a Pierre upgrade...but it doesn't cost your best (or 2nd to best) power guy to gain that.

 

And those guys who slap-hit, if their OBP falls much below .340, as it does for most of them on a regular basis (including Bourne), their value erodes.

 

Everyone seems to be overlooking the fact that it doesn't make financial sense to keep Quentin past this season. Viciedo is the same player and he needs a home, and Quentin's All-Star season will make him very expensive in arbitration. In this instance, it makes a lot of sense to trade him while his value is at its peak. There are a number of teams that need corner OF bats for the stretch run and CQ is getting colder at the plate with each passing day. You have to take the context into consideration. You need to move the guy, and if you can fill a need like leadoff with a quality player, you have to do it. It isn't as simple as "is Quentin better than Bourne/Beachy/etc." in a vacuum

[caulfield12]

Except we also know that Quentin is one of the few guys that seem capable of carrying this team offensively right now...we know his streakiness, and usually when you're about to give up on him, he'll put up another hot streak and look like the CQ of 2008 and you feel silly to even think about moving him.

 

I don't know how we can say that we can't afford to pay Quentin $7.5-8 million when we want to pay Danks the same amount...and we're paying Juan Pierre the same as Carlos this year. Maybe you're right. Dunn/Rios/Peavy force us into this cost-cutting mode, but I think it's not sound decision-making unless the player we get back in return will be with the White Sox for at least 4-6 seasons.

 

And we have to remember we're committed to paying AJ $6 million next year.

 

Seems silly to be forced into giving up your second best player offensively (at USCF no less) when offense is the MAIN issue standing between the White Sox and being a competitive team again.

 

We're not even close to being able to count on Dunn and Konerko's due for a return to mean AT SOME POINT, and Quentin's also due to get hot again...so I'm not buying that KW will actually pull the trigger unless it is for Beachy or a similar pitcher.

Edited July 13, 2011 by caulfield12

[Baron]

Looks like with Beltran available that will cool down the CQ market a bit.

 

The White Sox are one of the teams being listed as potentially interested in paying Mr. Beltran $6 million to play out the remainder of the season. Guess he'd have to play CF again in that scenario...which would continue to the trend of the White Sox acquiring veteran CFers who aren't really fit for everyday play at that position anymore (Mackowiak, Erstad, Griffey Jr., etc.)

 

 

I like Beltran but we have to decide if we are going to be able to contend or not and go from there. These next few series will tell which one were going to do. I have absolutely no problem trying to upgrade if where right back in the division race. But if we continue to lose to AL Central teams then forget it.

[caulfield12]

You also have the "readjusting to AL pitchers" dilemma with Beltran.

 

He's been out of the AL Central so long, he would be behind the 8 ball catching up...and you know with how good our scouting is, well, it would seem a better fit to add players who are already familiar with the opposition, since the advantge almost always goes to the pitchers.

[Baron]

You also have the "readjusting to AL pitchers" dilemma with Beltran.

 

He's been out of the AL Central so long, he would be behind the 8 ball catching up...and you know with how good our scouting is, well, it would seem a better fit to add players who are already familiar with the opposition, since the advantge almost always goes to the pitchers.

 

 

Right but hey we've had so much bad luck so far something has to go right for us. But if we absolutely bomb these next few series against the Royals and Indians whats the point? Who would the Mets want from us anyway for Carlos?

[Eminor3rd]

Except we also know that Quentin is one of the few guys that seem capable of carrying this team offensively right now...we know his streakiness, and usually when you're about to give up on him, he'll put up another hot streak and look like the CQ of 2008 and you feel silly to even think about moving him.

 

I don't know how we can say that we can't afford to pay Quentin $7.5-8 million when we want to pay Danks the same amount...and we're paying Juan Pierre the same as Carlos this year. Maybe you're right. Dunn/Rios/Peavy force us into this cost-cutting mode, but I think it's not sound decision-making unless the player we get back in return will be with the White Sox for at least 4-6 seasons.

 

And we have to remember we're committed to paying AJ $6 million next year.

 

Seems silly to be forced into giving up your second best player offensively (at USCF no less) when offense is the MAIN issue standing between the White Sox and being a competitive team again.

 

We're not even close to being able to count on Dunn and Konerko's due for a return to mean AT SOME POINT, and Quentin's also due to get hot again...so I'm not buying that KW will actually pull the trigger unless it is for Beachy or a similar pitcher.

 

I still maintain that we're pigeon-holed with Dunn/Rios, and if both of them continue to play like AAA veterans, we aren't going to win anyway, CQ or not. We have to assume/hope that they'll improve, we don't have any other choice. Trying to replace their production while they're still here is an exercise in futility. I think you need to put the pieces around them that will work when they work.

[southsider2k5]

Looks like with Beltran available that will cool down the CQ market a bit.

 

The White Sox are one of the teams being listed as potentially interested in paying Mr. Beltran $6 million to play out the remainder of the season. Guess he'd have to play CF again in that scenario...which would continue to the trend of the White Sox acquiring veteran CFers who aren't really fit for everyday play at that position anymore (Mackowiak, Erstad, Griffey Jr., etc.)

 

Unless we dump an equal or greater amount of salary, it ain't happening.

[Baron]

Unless we dump an equal or greater amount of salary, it ain't happening.

 

I just read that the Mets would be willing to eat more salary depending on the players given. Now that they got K Rod off the books they are able to do that.

[dyuen]

Unless we dump an equal or greater amount of salary, it ain't happening.

or an undisciplined AAA guy with a lot of power

[bigruss]

or an undisciplined AAA guy with a lot of power

If we trade Vicedo (who btw, is not that undisciplined) for Beltran than Im done with the Sox, as much as it would pain me to be that way (atleast until KW is gone).

[caulfield12]

I don't think they would acquire Beltran because that means KW admitting:

 

1) Pierre/Dunn/Rios are failures

2) With Pierre being THE leadoff guy with Ozzie, probably that Dunn or Rios would be sitting the majority of time

3) It puts him closer and closer to declaring Rios a dead weight or anchor

4) Without Viciedo, this team has zero future hitters in the pipeline...would JR sign off on it after the Hudson trade backfired (so far)?

Edited July 13, 2011 by caulfield12

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I think if you are gonna move Quentin for a pitcher that you need to have a secondary move that sends pitching to either the Yankees or Astros for Gardner or Bourn.

 

Quentin for Beachy would be pretty one-sided for the Braves though, the Sox give up an All-Star caliber OF for a guy who projects as career back of the rotation guy, so there would need to be more pieces than that from a Sox perspective.

Braves fans seem to think Q for Beachy is lopsided in our favor. After all Heyward is in right for them. Beachy is looking pretty damn good and is cheap. Q is only signed through 2012. Braves also need a right handed utility guy (Lillibridge) and a relief pitcher (Santiago) so maybe they can work something out involving any or all the players I mentioned. Throw Pierre and McLouth into the mix as well or any of the other studly Braves minor league pitchers.