Greg Hibbard Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 (edited) I've heard a lot of people recently say that they won't be fooled by this year's resurgence, because the resurgence last year ended up in a typical late-season fade. I thought it would be prudent at this point to compare the two streaks and illustrate why I think they are so different. It's especially apt because this recent surge is on game number 53, and that number is very relevant when looking at the 2010 data. The 2011 Sox are now 32-21 in their last 53 games, a .604 winning percentage. Last season, the White Sox were 24-33 on June 8th. Over their next 53 games they went 39-14, a .750 winning percentage, surging to the top of the AL central with a 63-47 record. On the very next day, they would begin a 7-13 slide that would ultimately cost them the division. So can we expect a similar fade starting today? I don't think so. Although both streaks contain roughly the same number of road and home games, 31 road/22 home during 2010 and 30 road/21 home during 2011, there are many differences that are worth emphasizing. Overall, the weighted winning percentage of the teams faced are quite different (I used the last day of each "streak" for the winning percentages calculated for each team, and then weighted the total winning percentage by calculating the proportion of games played vs. the respective winning percentages and summing the totals. For example, Baltimore had a .370 winning percentage on August 8th, 2010, so for the 2010 data I used that percentage. For the 2011 data, I used today's winning percentages. I felt this was the only fair way to extrapolate each, since there was no way of "knowing" the winning percentages past the last day of each streak at the time each would have been calculated). 2010 weighted winning percentage during the 39-14 streak: .459849 2011 weighted winning percentage during the 32-21 streak: .484472 This is a gigantic difference, almost 25 percentage points. What accounts for it? The 2010 team played 27 of those 53 in their streak against teams sporting a .442 winning percentage or less (a 71 win season on a 162 game schedule). They won those games at a 21-6 clip. They were 5-1 against teams from .443-.500, 7-3 against teams with a .500-.510 winning percentage, and just 6-4 vs. teams over .510. 6-4 is a good mark, but it's not a particularly large number of games played vs. an above-mediocre percentage during a 53-game segment. This season, the White Sox have played just 17 of the 53 games against such teams with a .442 or worse winning percentage, sporting a healthy 12-5 record in those games (as we would expect). They are 7-7 against teams from .443-.500 (not great), 1-2 vs. teams from .500-.510, but they are 12-7 against teams above .510, and to this point all those teams are actually above a .523 winning percentage. So a much greater proportion of this streak has been played against teams with a healthier winning percentage, and the greatest proportion of games has been played against teams with a +.523 winning percentage than any other category. What's more, most of those games have been on the road, where the White Sox are 8-4 against good teams during this streak. This is why I'd expect the 2011 edition of the White Sox to do better than the 2010 one did. It's one thing to wallop teams that are headed for 90-100 losses at a .800 clip. It's quite another to win road series against playoff-bound teams. Moreover, the sample size against the division is still particularly small, and we all know the danger of small sample sizes. Here's to a win in game 54... Edited July 5, 2011 by Greg Hibbard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lord chas Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 good post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco72 Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Jul 5, 2011 -> 12:41 PM) I've heard a lot of people recently say that they won't be fooled by this year's resurgence, because the resurgence last year ended up in a typical late-season fade. I thought it would be prudent at this point to compare the two streaks and illustrate why I think they are so different. It's especially apt because this recent surge is on game number 53, and that number is very relevant when looking at the 2010 data. Here's to a win in game 54... Good stuff bulldog. The really amazing thing is that the Sox have really played pretty crappy during this streak, at least on offense. Humber aside, the pitching hasn't been playing way over their heads either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Real Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 IMO, with the fluctuation/unpredictability of the Sox across different opponents win% (Sox will struggle against low win% teams, win against high win% teams, and then float around .500 against teams with similar records), its hard for me to put any weight into the point you're trying to make. It's a valid arguement I suppose, however the Sox have proven to me that on a day to day standpoint, it doesn't matter how good or bad their opponent is...i've seen this team lose a lot of games against bad teams and then beat the crap out of a healthy Red Sox team Predicting outcomes based on opp. win% with the Sox is as unpredictable as their chances of winning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KnoxSox Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Here's to hoping the bullpen can help close these games out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maggsmaggs Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 If I have learned one thing about White Sox teams, it's that they are completely fickle. Who would have thunk last year they would go on that crazy hot streak? Who would have thought in 2006, we would sink faster than the Titanic post All-Star break? With our pitching rounding into form, I think we are safe from another 10-20 stretch. But it will be up to our offense to see if we can find a nice hot streak. We get consistent starting pitching almost every year (we have been top 10 in quality starts for almost every year the last 10). To me the last 70 games are so will be about the White Sox's offense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 (edited) QUOTE (Real @ Jul 5, 2011 -> 12:20 PM) IMO, with the fluctuation/unpredictability of the Sox across different opponents win% (Sox will struggle against low win% teams, win against high win% teams, and then float around .500 against teams with similar records), its hard for me to put any weight into the point you're trying to make. It's a valid arguement I suppose, however the Sox have proven to me that on a day to day standpoint, it doesn't matter how good or bad their opponent is...i've seen this team lose a lot of games against bad teams and then beat the crap out of a healthy Red Sox team Predicting outcomes based on opp. win% with the Sox is as unpredictable as their chances of winning I think the surge from last season was somewhat predictable, in hindsight. Maybe not as hot as they were, but certainly I expected a team with that talent to clobber awful competition, particularly in the NL. Look at this season-long distribution compared to 2010: 2011 .442 or less 15-11 .443-.499 7-10 (7-7 since May 6th) .500-.519 1-2 .520+ 20-20 (12-7 since May 6th) The Sox have played almost half of their games to this point against teams that currently sport a .520+ winning percentage. 38 of our last 75 games (that makeup in minny has never been scheduled, has it?) are against below .500 teams. Of the games against above .500 opponents, we only have 14 road games left this season against above .500 teams. Hard to believe isn't it? 2010 .442 or less 37-22 .443-.499 13-5 .500-.519 12-15 .520+ 26-32 Last year's team beat the snot out of terrible teams, did pretty well against other below .500 teams, and couldn't beat good teams consistently. Edited July 5, 2011 by Greg Hibbard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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