Golfing Thread

[Jenksismyhero]

You have to think about where most opportunities for improvement lie. Like you said, the 90 golfer isn't a hack. And the easiest clubs to hit in one's bag are? Wegdes. He's obviously not likely to be Justin Rose with his wedges, but he is going to hit it near the green most of the time with a wedge in his hand. On the other hand, what are the most difficult clubs to hit in the bag, or where does the pro have a huge advantage over the average golfer? Pros hit their long-irons like you and I can only dream of. They also drive the ball much further than most 90 golfers.

 

Think about par 5's and par 3's. If the pro is hitting your shots outside of 100 yards, he's going to be hitting the approach into almost every par 3 out there. He's also going to be getting you on or near the green in 2 on most par 5's. You might even have him layup on short par 4's so he can hit your approach shot in for you .

 

I don't have a great short game by any means, but the worst I am going to do on most greens is 3 putt, and I am going to have the same amount of putts on the vast majority of greens anyways. I wouldn't get up and down nearly as much as a pro, but the difference there is usually going to only be 1 shot. Whereas if we're going tee to 100 yards short of the green, I might hit it OB, I might hit it into that lateral hazard, I might shank a few. I might make a 9 on a hole because I hit not one, but two balls in the water.

 

Ok, I read it wrong. I thought you meant the pro literally gets you to about the 100 yard marker and then it's your turn.

 

But that's kind of a silly hypothetical because the pro would basically get you on the green 60-70% of the time in regulation, so of course you would take that.

[iamshack]

Ok, I read it wrong. I thought you meant the pro literally gets you to about the 100 yard marker and then it's your turn.

 

But that's kind of a silly hypothetical because the pro would basically get you on the green 60-70% of the time in regulation, so of course you would take that.

Well within the parameters of the normal game...you're not going to have to hit another shot from 100 yards because you had him hit from 130 yards. But yeah, now think about the inverse. Take your game, and think of how many shots you take from inside 100 yards each round. Now imagine a pro is hitting them all. Most people think of it that way and think how many stokes could be shaved off.

[Jenksismyhero]

How many fairways and greens do you think he is hitting?

 

Well as-is with one shot he hits about 61% of greens in regulation, which is about 11 holes. So I think for 11 holes, played with two balls, you're still talking absolute worst score is even par because it'd be rare that he three putts any of them. He would then have 7 holes to scramble around. And I still think he's at or near the green most of the time, so you're talking a chip and a putt or two for most holes.

 

4-5-6 over might be reasonable for him. But I just don't see a 90 score guy improving 12-15 shots by getting a second shot at it.

[iamshack]

Well as-is with one shot he hits about 61% of greens in regulation, which is about 11 holes. So I think for 11 holes, played with two balls, you're still talking absolute worst score is even par because it'd be rare that he three putts any of them. He would then have 7 holes to scramble around. And I still think he's at or near the green most of the time, so you're talking a chip and a putt or two for most holes.

 

4-5-6 over might be reasonable for him. But I just don't see a 90 score guy improving 12-15 shots by getting a second shot at it.

I don't think you understand...if he hits 11 of 18 greens with one ball, if he has to hit two balls, he's only going to hit 5.5 greens with both balls. So now he is scrambling on 12-13 holes instead of 7. He gets up and down about 61% of the time, which is pretty solid. But if he has to do it twice, he's only going to do it about 30% of the time. So now he's making bogeys on 7-9 of those 12-13 greens he missed.

 

Edit: Now granted, it won't exactly play out that way...there are certain holes that are easier and he is going to hit two good shots because the skill required is just not that difficult. There are also holes that are going to be difficult and he is going to hit two bad shots because the skill level required is high. So he probably makes a higher percentage of pars on easy holes with both balls but also a higher percentage of bogeys with both balls on hard holes...which leads to him being right around where you had him...6 over for 78.

 

 

Edited August 13, 2014 by iamshack

[Jenksismyhero]

I don't think you understand...if he hits 11 of 18 greens with one ball, if he has to hit two balls, he's only going to hit 5.5 greens with both balls. So now he is scrambling on 12-13 holes instead of 7. He gets up and down about 61% of the time, which is pretty solid. But if he has to do it twice, he's only going to do it about 30% of the time. So now he's making bogeys on 7-9 of those 12-13 greens he missed.

 

But you're ignoring the big chance that he would improve on the first shot with his second, which I think any pro would do the vast majority of the time.

[SnB]

WTF did this thread turn into?

[BigHurt3515]

Finally get to go golfing tomorrow.. Haven't golfed in over a year and only have done it a handful of times. I'm not that good but I want to start golfing more often and try and get better. The main problem I have is having a huge slice when driving or hitting the ball from a far distance.. I feel like it has to do with me playing baseball all my life.

[RockRaines]

Finally get to go golfing tomorrow.. Haven't golfed in over a year and only have done it a handful of times. I'm not that good but I want to start golfing more often and try and get better. The main problem I have is having a huge slice when driving or hitting the ball from a far distance.. I feel like it has to do with me playing baseball all my life.

Coming outside in or over the top. Try hitting the ball to the RF'er.

 

 

[BigHurt3515]

Coming outside in or over the top. Try hitting the ball to the RF'er.

 

I literally have to turn my body to the left just to try and get it on the fairway.

[iamshack]

But you're ignoring the big chance that he would improve on the first shot with his second, which I think any pro would do the vast majority of the time.

HE CANNOT USE HIS SECOND SHOT. HE MUST USE HIS WORST BALL ON EVERY SHOT

[RockRaines]

I literally have to turn my body to the left just to try and get it on the fairway.

Youre probably just coming in steep. Try making sure your left shoulder is higher than your right when you set up with your driver, your head should be behind the ball. Then try to finish with the clubhead pointing at Right Center field. Another drill I do is keep the driver head as low to the ground as possible in my backswing, this forces you to rotate with your body instead of taking the club straight up with your arms.

Edited August 13, 2014 by RockRaines

[iamshack]

I literally have to turn my body to the left just to try and get it on the fairway.

You are likely making it worse by doing that. When you turn your body left it encourages an even bigger slice because you are likely increasing the amount you are cutting across the ball.

 

There could be any number of reasons you are slicing the ball...could be your swing path, could be you are leaving the face of your club open, most likely it is both.

 

Look up ball flight laws on google...that will help you understand what your problem is. Then you can google those problems and look at tips for addressing them.

[BigHurt3515]

Youre probably just coming in steep. Try making sure your left shoulder is higher than your right when you set up with your driver, your head should be behind the ball. Then try to finish with the clubhead pointing at Right Center field. Another drill I do is keep the driver head as low to the ground as possible in my backswing, this forces you to rotate with your body instead of taking the club straight up with your arms.

 

Thanks, I will give it a shot tomorrow!

[southsider2k5]

HE CANNOT USE HIS SECOND SHOT. HE MUST USE HIS WORST BALL ON EVERY SHOT

 

You are totally missing what he is saying.

 

If he has a 55% chance at hitting the fairway on his first swing, that goes up on the second swing. So it isn't .55 times .55 to get a %. It is something more like .55 times .70 (or something higher than 55% if he gets better on his second swing).

[iamshack]

You are totally missing what he is saying.

 

If he has a 55% chance at hitting the fairway on his first swing, that goes up on the second swing. So it isn't .55 times .55 to get a %. It is something more like .55 times .70 (or something higher than 55% if he gets better on his second swing).

But if he misses the fairway with his first swing, it doesn't matter what he does with his second swing. If he hits the fairway with his first swing, then he still has to hit the fairway again with his second swing, or else he has to use that ball.

 

The second swing is irrelevant unless it is worse than his first swing. If he improves every time with experience over his first ball, guess what? He will get to use that second ball 0 times, so it will have 0% effect on his score.

[iamshack]

Youre probably just coming in steep. Try making sure your left shoulder is higher than your right when you set up with your driver, your head should be behind the ball. Then try to finish with the clubhead pointing at Right Center field. Another drill I do is keep the driver head as low to the ground as possible in my backswing, this forces you to rotate with your body instead of taking the club straight up with your arms.

I've always been told this is what you need to do with you have an early release and are hooking the ball...you're need to emphasize keeping your swing "down the line" of the target.

 

The last sentence is what is known as "bringing the club back wide." You'll see Rickie Fowler practice this takeaway before every swing. It helps you avoid bringing the club back on the inside with your arms or cocking your wrists early.

[Chisoxfn]

HE CANNOT USE HIS SECOND SHOT. HE MUST USE HIS WORST BALL ON EVERY SHOT

Yeah, which will usually be his first shot. Meaning you can't just split the percentages because his 2nd shot, by and large will be better, so worse case he plays his first shot 90% of the time, which is what he would have to do on tour, etc. These guys are such good putters, that while I think he'll give up some with the having to make puts twice, I still don't think he's going to miss that many puts to make up the difference cause I don't think the normal 90 is making up more then 10 strokes. Usually (and I have pretty close to a 90 average) when I have a bad shot and rehit from the same place, I follow it up with the same terrible shot. Less so when I get closer to the green but off the tees, certainly, and that tends to be where I lose a lot of shots. I do agree I'd get some back in these scenario, specifically near the greens, but again, I'm not making up the difference.

[southsider2k5]

I don't think you understand...if he hits 11 of 18 greens with one ball, if he has to hit two balls, he's only going to hit 5.5 greens with both balls. So now he is scrambling on 12-13 holes instead of 7. He gets up and down about 61% of the time, which is pretty solid. But if he has to do it twice, he's only going to do it about 30% of the time. So now he's making bogeys on 7-9 of those 12-13 greens he missed.

 

Edit: Now granted, it won't exactly play out that way...there are certain holes that are easier and he is going to hit two good shots because the skill required is just not that difficult. There are also holes that are going to be difficult and he is going to hit two bad shots because the skill level required is high. So he probably makes a higher percentage of pars on easy holes with both balls but also a higher percentage of bogeys with both balls on hard holes...which leads to him being right around where you had him...6 over for 78.

 

 

But if he misses the fairway with his first swing, it doesn't matter what he does with his second swing. If he hits the fairway with his first swing, then he still has to hit the fairway again with his second swing, or else he has to use that ball.

 

The second swing is irrelevant unless it is worse than his first swing. If he improves every time with experience over his first ball, guess what? He will get to use that second ball 0 times, so it will have 0% effect on his score.

 

This is your post on the matter. You assumed static percentages for each attempt in % of greens in regulation. What he is trying to tell you is that if the % goes up with the second attempt, that 30% number is too low. Instead of being a 55% chance times a 55% chance, it is a 55% chance times a higher percent chance the second time, which reduces the average number of times he misses. The second swing is relevant for as many times as he doesn't improve. If he improves 70% of the time, that means 30% of the time, his second shot is still worse than his first, and is relevant to the counter-factual at hand.

 

[Jenksismyhero]

HE CANNOT USE HIS SECOND SHOT. HE MUST USE HIS WORST BALL ON EVERY SHOT

 

I understand that, but his "first" shot, good or bad, ends up with him scoring at a 70 something clip. He doesn't get a redo when he plays on tour, that's just his skill level. That's his baseline.

 

You're assuming that he'll shoot worse, or at least on average be worse just because he has to take a second shot. I'm saying that's not necessarily true. More often than not that 2nd shot is going to be better than the first, regardless of whether the first shot is bad or good. He's able to see how the wind affects the shot, how the ground affects the shot, if he's turning over his wrist, if he has some kink in his swing, if he ends up short or long etc. etc. He has more info on that 2nd shot. You're ignoring this by just saying "well he has a 60% GIR rate normally, so in two shots that's cut to 30%."

 

Really, his "worst case scenario" is most likely going to be his first "bad" shot. And again, he's able to scramble from that bad shot more often than not and still shoot a 70 something on average.

 

Yes, there is the possibility that he'll hit a good shot first, and THEN a bad shot. And that's where I agree he'll probably shoot a few shots worse than he normally does. That and his putting, which is bound to drop off if he's forced to make a 10+ footer more than once. I just don't see that happening nearly as much as you are claiming because of a pro's ability to adjust immediately.

 

[iamshack]

Yeah, which will usually be his first shot. Meaning you can't just split the percentages because his 2nd shot, by and large will be better, so worse case he plays his first shot 90% of the time, which is what he would have to do on tour, etc. These guys are such good putters, that while I think he'll give up some with the having to make puts twice, I still don't think he's going to miss that many puts to make up the difference cause I don't think the normal 90 is making up more then 10 strokes. Usually (and I have pretty close to a 90 average) when I have a bad shot and rehit from the same place, I follow it up with the same terrible shot. Less so when I get closer to the green but off the tees, certainly, and that tends to be where I lose a lot of shots. I do agree I'd get some back in these scenario, specifically near the greens, but again, I'm not making up the difference.

I just don't agree with that logic. Maybe in terms of chipping and putting, because your ball is actually traveling on top of a physical surface (the green). But when you are hitting drives or irons or any shot that doesn't involve the ball rolling on the ground, these guys are hitting the ball through the air. There isn't much to be learned that they don't already know. A good drive is more the result of executing a swing optimally, not the result of not understanding where to land the ball on the fairway. If this was the case, we would almost always see scores improve in tournaments with each subsequent round as a result of experience gained. This simply is not the case.

[iamshack]

I understand that, but his "first" shot, good or bad, ends up with him scoring at a 70 something clip. He doesn't get a redo when he plays on tour, that's just his skill level. That's his baseline.

 

You're assuming that he'll shoot worse, or at least on average be worse just because he has to take a second shot. I'm saying that's not necessarily true. More often than not that 2nd shot is going to be better than the first, regardless of whether the first shot is bad or good. He's able to see how the wind affects the shot, how the ground affects the shot, if he's turning over his wrist, if he has some kink in his swing, if he ends up short or long etc. etc. He has more info on that 2nd shot. You're ignoring this by just saying "well he has a 60% GIR rate normally, so in two shots that's cut to 30%."

 

Really, his "worst case scenario" is most likely going to be his first "bad" shot. And again, he's able to scramble from that bad shot more often than not and still shoot a 70 something on average.

 

Yes, there is the possibility that he'll hit a good shot first, and THEN a bad shot. And that's where I agree he'll probably shoot a few shots worse than he normally does. That and his putting, which is bound to drop off if he's forced to make a 10+ footer more than once. I just don't see that happening nearly as much as you are claiming because of a pro's ability to adjust immediately.

No, I'm assuming the results will be the same on each shot. If he hits 60% if fairways normally, he will continue to hit 60% of fairways normally. So if he has to hit 28 drives in a round instead of 14, he'll hit the fairway 16.8 times. That means he will miss the fairway 11.2 times. Now I have conceded that he may miss the same fairway twice on one hole or hit the same fairway twice on one hole, and the ones he misses with both shots on he is more likely to make bogeys on.

 

But he's also going to suffer on holes where he hits a killer drive on a relatively easy hole but then cannot duplicate that and has to use the lesser drive he hit. That is the difference between birdies and pars.

 

Edit: As for the scrambling...you have to remember, he is going to have to scramble from there twice, not just once. If we know his scrambling rate is only 60%, then we know that 40% of the time he does not pull it off...if we make him do it with two balls, odds are that he isn't going to be able to pull it off again with any regularity.

 

I do see your point in terms of being able to use experience in order to duplicate his earlier success when it comes to the short game, but when you look at the stats, I just think you're giving too much credit to the unknown and not enough towards execution and randomness. I think seeing a putt go in the first time may improve his chances to do it again versus if he had never seen it occur, to your point and to ssk's point, but I do not believe it would be significant by any means.

 

 

Edited August 13, 2014 by iamshack

[RockRaines]

I've always been told this is what you need to do with you have an early release and are hooking the ball...you're need to emphasize keeping your swing "down the line" of the target.

 

The last sentence is what is known as "bringing the club back wide." You'll see Rickie Fowler practice this takeaway before every swing. It helps you avoid bringing the club back on the inside with your arms or cocking your wrists early.

Works for guys that swing across their bodies as well. Trying to keep the swing plane and force the hands over.

[iamshack]

This is your post on the matter. You assumed static percentages for each attempt in % of greens in regulation. What he is trying to tell you is that if the % goes up with the second attempt, that 30% number is too low. Instead of being a 55% chance times a 55% chance, it is a 55% chance times a higher percent chance the second time, which reduces the average number of times he misses. The second swing is relevant for as many times as he doesn't improve. If he improves 70% of the time, that means 30% of the time, his second shot is still worse than his first, and is relevant to the counter-factual at hand.

BTW, I didn't just make up the results...this is what the computers say after millions and millions of simulations utilizing actual shotlink data.

 

It has been proven anecdotally as well...a lot of pro golfers will play worst ball to prepare themselves for a major...Greg Norman said the best he ever remembered scoring in a worst ball round was 72.

 

Lanny Wadkins lost a match against an 8 handicap in this format back in 1991 when he was a top 10 player in the world.

Edited August 13, 2014 by iamshack

[IlliniKrush]

Someone just call Ernie Els and arrange a round. Who shoots a 90 here?

[LittleHurt05]

I literally have to turn my body to the left just to try and get it on the fairway.

 

I played with a guy once with the same problem. He was a lefty and instead of fixing the problem, he would just aim 45 degrees to the right of the fairway, just grip it and rip it. It was ridiculous to watch. We played a course where one hole was next to a neighborhood and it looked like he was aiming at a house.