Golfing Thread

[RockRaines]

Ernie Els.

It would be close depending on his bad misses. I've played two ball before by myself and you can get into the 70's but you arent going that much lower.

[iamshack]

I would say Els. A professionals worst shot is going to be better than a 18 handicapper's best shot 95% of the time. They will be much more consistent and accurate. A guy like Els will see very little difference between his two attempts.

Remember, a guy who shoots 90 on average is not an 18...he's likely a 11-12 or so...handicap is more a measure of a golfers better rounds, not his average score.

[Jenksismyhero]

Ok, so two golfers...on an average, 6,500 yard course....one golfer shoots about 90 on average, the other golfer is Ernie Els.

 

Each golfer gets to hit two balls on every shot, including putts.

 

The 90 golfer gets to play his best ball every time. Ernie Els has to hit his worst ball every time.

 

Who shoots the better score?

 

Ernie Els and I don't think it's that close.

 

A 90 golfer, roughly bogey golf, is still inconsistent. You can give him two shots and he's likely to still mess up. At best you're looking at something like a 10 stroke improvement. At best.

 

Els is going to shoot around par with only one shot. I figure that's the worst case scenario because a 2nd shot he'll adjust and get it "right." Even if he does do worse a second time, maybe he's 3-4 shots worse than normal. So again, something in the 72-75 range.

[southsider2k5]

Remember, a guy who shoots 90 on average is not an 18...he's likely a 11-12 or so...handicap is more a measure of a golfers better rounds, not his average score.

 

Yeah, I still think the general point stands. Pro's are pro's because they are able to repeat their shots with a very high level of consistency. A guy like Els hitting the same shot twice is still going to cluster those shots very close to each other on a high percentage of occasions.

[iamshack]

Ok, so they would each win about half the time. Average score of about 78.

Edited August 13, 2014 by iamshack

[iamshack]

Ernie Els and I don't think it's that close.

 

A 90 golfer, roughly bogey golf, is still inconsistent. You can give him two shots and he's likely to still mess up. At best you're looking at something like a 10 stroke improvement. At best.

 

Els is going to shoot around par with only one shot. I figure that's the worst case scenario because a 2nd shot he'll adjust and get it "right." Even if he does do worse a second time, maybe he's 3-4 shots worse than normal. So again, something in the 72-75 range.

Remember, he has to play the worst of his two shots every time...

[Chisoxfn]

Remember, he has to play the worst of his two shots every time...

I would presume the worst shot, more often then not, would be his first shot. Give a pro two chances and they are going to do even more damage. However, a pro on his worst shot will still be a very good golfer. A guy shooting 90 (which is probably my average) is not getting into the 70's with a 2nd shot on a regular basis and I wouldn't expect Els to shoot much lower then normal.

[iamshack]

I would presume the worst shot, more often then not, would be his first shot. Give a pro two chances and they are going to do even more damage. However, a pro on his worst shot will still be a very good golfer. A guy shooting 90 (which is probably my average) is not getting into the 70's with a 2nd shot on a regular basis and I wouldn't expect Els to shoot much lower then normal.

What would you guess an average tour pro's fairways hit % is? Greens in regulation? Sand saves?

[RockRaines]

Putting is the X factor. Pro's gain a lot of shot on amateurs on the greens.

[LittleHurt05]

What are the rules for Ernie on the green? Does he have to make both putts? Or his first putt? Or can he make either of the two?

[RockRaines]

What are the rules for Ernie on the green? Does he have to make both putts? Or his first putt? Or can he make either of the two?

if he makes one and misses one he has to play the miss.

[iamshack]

Putting is the X factor. Pro's gain a lot of shot on amateurs on the greens.

Putting is huge in this hypothetical format, because the pro has to make BOTH putts, not just one.

 

But pros actually gain more shots getting to the greens than they do on the greens (in real golf in relation to amateurs)

[iamshack]

Another one for you...would the average amateur benefit more from having an average touring pro hit all his shots up to 100 yards short of the hole, or all his shots with less than 100 yards to the hole?

[Jenksismyhero]

Putting is huge in this hypothetical format, because the pro has to make BOTH putts, not just one.

 

But pros actually gain more shots getting to the greens than they do on the greens (in real golf in relation to amateurs)

 

I still don't think it matters. You're talking worst case he misses a few tough birdies and has to settle for par. The 90 score player still has difficulty getting the ball anywhere near the hole to make birdies and pars, even with two shots.

 

And that second point is also big. Els has a 290 driving average. An average golfer is probably closer to 225-230. And he's a comfortable 6-7 iron from 200+ away. Huge advantage on long par 4's and par 5's.

[Jenksismyhero]

Another one for you...would the average amateur benefit more from having an average touring pro hit all his shots up to 100 yards short of the hole, or all his shots with less than 100 yards to the hole?

 

I'll go with 100 yards and in. If you can hack it up to a green in 2 or 3, the pro is going to be able to chip/pitch and one putt the majority of the time. Way more accurate than an amateur.

[iamshack]

I still don't think it matters. You're talking worst case he misses a few tough birdies and has to settle for par. The 90 score player still has difficulty getting the ball anywhere near the hole to make birdies and pars, even with two shots.

 

And that second point is also big. Els has a 290 driving average. An average golfer is probably closer to 225-230. And he's a comfortable 6-7 iron from 200+ away. Huge advantage on long par 4's and par 5's.

Ok...let's think it through...

 

Let's take a look at some of Els' stats...Ernie is 181st on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy. He hits 53.52% of his drives in the fairway. So the odds of him hitting 2 balls in the fairway is slightly more than 1 in 4 (26.76 %). So on 3 out of every 4 holes basically, he's starting from the rough. Granted, he averages 290.9 yards a drive, but he's starting from the rough. Ernie hits 60.85 % of his greens in regulation. I'm fairly certain this % decreases when he is in the rough versus the fairway, but not assuming where his ball is, he is only going to hit the green in regulation on 6 out of every 10 shots. So the odds of him hitting the green with both balls are not great...he will do it about 30% of the time. When Ernie does miss the green, he is fairly decent...his average proximity he gets the ball to the hole from around the green is 6 feet 11 inches. If he was to hit it in the sand, his sand save % is just under 50. So the odds of doing that on two shots is about 25%.

 

I don't have the exact percentage in front of me, but the average pro makes about 50% of his 8 footers. For 7 footers, it is undoubtedly higher, maybe 55%. To make two in a row, that number might be more like 27.5%.

 

So you start to see how difficult it is for a pro to make a birdie....it is incredibly difficult...and it becomes fairly easy for him to make bogeys.

[iamshack]

I'll go with 100 yards and in. If you can hack it up to a green in 2 or 3, the pro is going to be able to chip/pitch and one putt the majority of the time. Way more accurate than an amateur.

Obviously it depends on the particular amateur, but on average, the better choice would be to allow the pro to get you to within 100 yards and then take over from there.

[LittleHurt05]

Ok...let's think it through...

 

Let's take a look at some of Els' stats...Ernie is 181st on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy. He hits 53.52% of his drives in the fairway. So the odds of him hitting 2 balls in the fairway is slightly more than 1 in 4 (26.76 %). So on 3 out of every 4 holes basically, he's starting from the rough. Granted, he averages 290.9 yards a drive, but he's starting from the rough. Ernie hits 60.85 % of his greens in regulation. I'm fairly certain this % decreases when he is in the rough versus the fairway, but not assuming where his ball is, he is only going to hit the green in regulation on 6 out of every 10 shots. So the odds of him hitting the green with both balls are not great...he will do it about 30% of the time. When Ernie does miss the green, he is fairly decent...his average proximity he gets the ball to the hole from around the green is 6 feet 11 inches. If he was to hit it in the sand, his sand save % is just under 50. So the odds of doing that on two shots is about 25%.

 

I don't have the exact percentage in front of me, but the average pro makes about 50% of his 8 footers. For 7 footers, it is undoubtedly higher, maybe 55%. To make two in a row, that number might be more like 27.5%.

 

So you start to see how difficult it is for a pro to make a birdie....it is incredibly difficult...and it becomes fairly easy for him to make bogeys.

 

The 90 golfer also doesn't play in more difficult courses set up for the PGA Tour in front of thousands of spectators like Ernie does.

 

Given the need for Ernie to make both putts, I think the 50/50 split and 78 average sounds right though. Each time he has to pick the further ball on the green, then make both putts, that's a big difference there.

[iamshack]

The 90 golfer also doesn't play in more difficult courses set up for the PGA Tour in front of thousands of spectators like Ernie does.

 

Given the need for Ernie to make both putts, I think the 50/50 split and 78 average sounds right though. Each time he has to pick the further ball on the green, then make both putts, that's a big difference there.

Well this is on an average 6,500 yard course we're talking here...as the course length and setup becomes more difficult, the advantage goes to the professional.

 

Edit: And I realize those statistics I cited would increase as a result of Ernie playing an easier course...but that goes to show you that pros aren't necessarily as automatic as we think...we tend to see the best shots from the best players in any given tournament, because that is what is relevant. They don't often show much else. But there is a lot of other shots happening out there from week to week.

Edited August 13, 2014 by iamshack

[Jenksismyhero]

Ok...let's think it through...

 

Let's take a look at some of Els' stats...Ernie is 181st on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy. He hits 53.52% of his drives in the fairway. So the odds of him hitting 2 balls in the fairway is slightly more than 1 in 4 (26.76 %). So on 3 out of every 4 holes basically, he's starting from the rough. Granted, he averages 290.9 yards a drive, but he's starting from the rough. Ernie hits 60.85 % of his greens in regulation. I'm fairly certain this % decreases when he is in the rough versus the fairway, but not assuming where his ball is, he is only going to hit the green in regulation on 6 out of every 10 shots. So the odds of him hitting the green with both balls are not great...he will do it about 30% of the time. When Ernie does miss the green, he is fairly decent...his average proximity he gets the ball to the hole from around the green is 6 feet 11 inches. If he was to hit it in the sand, his sand save % is just under 50. So the odds of doing that on two shots is about 25%.

 

I don't have the exact percentage in front of me, but the average pro makes about 50% of his 8 footers. For 7 footers, it is undoubtedly higher, maybe 55%. To make two in a row, that number might be more like 27.5%.

 

So you start to see how difficult it is for a pro to make a birdie....it is incredibly difficult...and it becomes fairly easy for him to make bogeys.

 

You can't look at the stats that way. Those are stats over rounds of golf, not one shot right after the other. You're giving a tour player the option to re-hit a "bad" shot. I'd say 85-90% of the time he's going to hit it right the 2nd time. Els getting one shot is, for the most part, going to be his "worst" because if given a second chance he will adjust properly. Not all the time, which is why he may shoot slightly worse if he's always forced to take his worst shot, but it's not nearly as significant as an amateur. Even with those figures, he's still average par or better. Whereas you're asking an amateur to take two shots and massively improve from one to the next. That's something he/she doesn't have the skill for.

 

I think your putting numbers are wrong. The % of makes are WAY more for a pro than the amateur. Pros are nearly automatic from 5' in, and their lag putting is significantly better.

[Jenksismyhero]

Obviously it depends on the particular amateur, but on average, the better choice would be to allow the pro to get you to within 100 yards and then take over from there.

 

I guess I was assuming the 90 scorer again. That's not someone who is hacking their way around the course. They're playing bogey golf, which means get it on in 3-4 and putt it a couple of times. I think the pro's ability to chip, pitch, hit sand shots, lag putt and putt gives a far greater advantage than driving the ball farther and straighter.

 

The difficulty with this hypothetical is the 100 yard line. That's not really THAT much of an advantage unless you're talking straight off the drive. Let's say we have a par 4 of 450 yards. A pro is getting you within 100 yards in two shots. Most 90 scoring amateurs can do that too.

[iamshack]

You can't look at the stats that way. Those are stats over rounds of golf, not one shot right after the other. You're giving a tour player the option to re-hit a "bad" shot. I'd say 85-90% of the time he's going to hit it right the 2nd time. Els getting one shot is, for the most part, going to be his "worst" because if given a second chance he will adjust properly. Not all the time, which is why he may shoot slightly worse if he's always forced to take his worst shot, but it's not nearly as significant as an amateur. Even with those figures, he's still average par or better. Whereas you're asking an amateur to take two shots and massively improve from one to the next. That's something he/she doesn't have the skill for.

 

I think your putting numbers are wrong. The % of makes are WAY more for a pro than the amateur. Pros are nearly automatic from 5' in, and their lag putting is significantly better.

But in this hypothetical the player can't use the shot he re-hit. He HAS to play the worst of his two shots...So say he misses his first 8 foot putt. Will he likely have a better chance to make the next one because he's going to get a read from the first? Yes. But guess what, it doesn't matter, because he can't use that putt! He has to take the one he's already missed. The opposite applies for the 90 golfer...he CAN use the better shot, so he can use the information gained from the first shot to adjust on the second shot.

 

As for the putting statistics, the 55% for a 7 footer may not be right on, because I don't have them in front of me at the moment, but for 8 foot putts, the average is right at 50%. Anything less than 3 feet, they are almost automatic. They do miss 4 and 5 footers though.

[iamshack]

I guess I was assuming the 90 scorer again. That's not someone who is hacking their way around the course. They're playing bogey golf, which means get it on in 3-4 and putt it a couple of times. I think the pro's ability to chip, pitch, hit sand shots, lag putt and putt gives a far greater advantage than driving the ball farther and straighter.

 

The difficulty with this hypothetical is the 100 yard line. That's not really THAT much of an advantage unless you're talking straight off the drive. Let's say we have a par 4 of 450 yards. A pro is getting you within 100 yards in two shots. Most 90 scoring amateurs can do that too.

You have to think about where most opportunities for improvement lie. Like you said, the 90 golfer isn't a hack. And the easiest clubs to hit in one's bag are? Wegdes. He's obviously not likely to be Justin Rose with his wedges, but he is going to hit it near the green most of the time with a wedge in his hand. On the other hand, what are the most difficult clubs to hit in the bag, or where does the pro have a huge advantage over the average golfer? Pros hit their long-irons like you and I can only dream of. They also drive the ball much further than most 90 golfers.

 

Think about par 5's and par 3's. If the pro is hitting your shots outside of 100 yards, he's going to be hitting the approach into almost every par 3 out there. He's also going to be getting you on or near the green in 2 on most par 5's. You might even have him layup on short par 4's so he can hit your approach shot in for you .

 

I don't have a great short game by any means, but the worst I am going to do on most greens is 3 putt, and I am going to have the same amount of putts on the vast majority of greens anyways. I wouldn't get up and down nearly as much as a pro, but the difference there is usually going to only be 1 shot. Whereas if we're going tee to 100 yards short of the green, I might hit it OB, I might hit it into that lateral hazard, I might shank a few. I might make a 9 on a hole because I hit not one, but two balls in the water.

[Jenksismyhero]

But in this hypothetical the player can't use the shot he re-hit. He HAS to play the worst of his two shots...So say he misses his first 8 foot putt. Will he likely have a better chance to make the next one because he's going to get a read from the first? Yes. But guess what, it doesn't matter, because he can't use that putt! He has to take the one he's already missed. The opposite applies for the 90 golfer...he CAN use the better shot, so he can use the information gained from the first shot to adjust on the second shot.

 

As for the putting statistics, the 55% for a 7 footer may not be right on, because I don't have them in front of me at the moment, but for 8 foot putts, the average is right at 50%. Anything less than 3 feet, they are almost automatic. They do miss 4 and 5 footers though.

 

I guess I don't see that as a huge deal. He's hitting fairways and hitting greens and giving himself great scoring chances most of the round. Not making the birdie or par putts from long range means at worst he's dropping one shot. But he's still going to make a fair number of those putts twice simply based on the distance and percentage from 5-6 feet and in.

 

 

[iamshack]

I guess I don't see that as a huge deal. He's hitting fairways and hitting greens and giving himself great scoring chances most of the round. Not making the birdie or par putts from long range means at worst he's dropping one shot. But he's still going to make a fair number of those putts twice simply based on the distance and percentage from 5-6 feet and in.

How many fairways and greens do you think he is hitting?