Cali Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 I was thinking about this yesterday with Jeter hitting #3000... Will a player EVER top Pete Rose's hits record? About 5-6 years ago I thought Jeter had a shot. He was constantly getting 200 hits a season, and just seemed like one of those guys that was so consistent making contact and was never really injured. But now he's 37 and just got #3000, and is regressing. Ichiro was another idea, but like Jeter is regressing and getting older. He might not even crack 3000 if he continues this drop. Had he joined the MLB a few years earlier he might have had a chance. To even get to 3,000 or 4,000 for that matter you're gonna need to be very healthy. Be great from the start of your career. Gonna have to average 200 hits a year at least. Can't be much more than a singles doubles guy, someone with big power won't make enough contact... and probably going to have to play 20+ years.... That's a tough task right there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lostfan Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Of active players, the only one who would even come close is Ichiro if you counted all his hits from Japan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 if ichiro started his career in the US instead of Japan, i think he would have come damn close Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cali Posted July 10, 2011 Author Share Posted July 10, 2011 (edited) If anyone could play until they're in their mid-40's it'd be Ichiro. He may be regressing this season, it may just be one down season we wont really know until next year, but he's out there every day and is extremely healthy. He could keep it going for another 6-7 years and reach 3,000 if he can stay healthy. Ichiro combined between Japan and MLB: 3,623 hits. That is pretty amazing. He'll definitely get to a combined 4,000 before all is said and done and possibly reach Rose's number... Edited July 10, 2011 by Cali Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitesoxbrian Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Jeter has more hits now than Rose did at this age. Jeter has a shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 QUOTE (Cali @ Jul 10, 2011 -> 11:53 AM) If anyone could play until they're in their mid-40's it'd be Ichiro. He may be regressing this season, it may just be one down season we wont really know until next year, but he's out there every day and is extremely healthy. He could keep it going for another 6-7 years and reach 3,000 if he can stay healthy. Ichiro combined between Japan and MLB: 3,623 hits. That is pretty amazing. He'll definitely get to a combined 4,000 before all is said and done and possibly reach Rose's number... Ichiro is going to have a tough time reaching 3000, let alone 4000. He'll be about 3 years away after this year and 38 years old. That isn't to say he won't, but he has zero chance at 4000. Jeter could put up another couple years and break into the top 10 in hits, but nothing more. The guy who could have had a shot was Arod but he's had tons of injuries and doesn't hit for the average he once did. Rose's record is going to be really tough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texsox Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I don't see anyone in my lifetime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I legitimately think someone will make a run at this mark in our lifetimes. People have made the 2 points already in this thread...if Jeter keeps up his current pace he'll get there...but the thing that will likely stop him is that he'd have to go play somewhere else to get that last season or two in. Ichiro of course is on the pace and would have gotten there had all his Japanese hits been US hits. The fact that we have 2 guys who *could* have done it in the right circumstances means its not unbreachable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zirc Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 11, 2011 -> 03:55 PM) I legitimately think someone will make a run at this mark in our lifetimes. People have made the 2 points already in this thread...if Jeter keeps up his current pace he'll get there...but the thing that will likely stop him is that he'd have to go play somewhere else to get that last season or two in. Ichiro of course is on the pace and would have gotten there had all his Japanese hits been US hits. The fact that we have 2 guys who *could* have done it in the right circumstances means its not unbreachable. What about Pujols? He's already around 2000 and is only 31. If he plays until 43 or 44 (which is a big if, naturally) he might have a shot at 4000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chetkincaid Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 (edited) Omar Vizquel is 44 years old. If he can play that long then I think Ichiro could too. Edited July 17, 2011 by Chet Kincaid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balfanman Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 (edited) QUOTE (Tex @ Jul 10, 2011 -> 08:53 PM) I don't see anyone in my lifetime. Viciedo! Edited July 18, 2011 by balfanman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danman31 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Career marks are so iffy because it's not as much about the quality of the player, but the fact that they played well into their 40s. I never liked the idea of someone's legacy changing when they are well past their prime. To me, Ichiro is a better contact hitter than Rose and the numbers support that. I don't need him to play until he's 45 and break some record for me to realize that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlackSox8 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Cabrera is going to be close to 1600 hits by the end of the season...he's only 28. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JorgeFabregas Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 (edited) QUOTE (danman31 @ Jul 18, 2011 -> 08:57 PM) Career marks are so iffy because it's not as much about the quality of the player, but the fact that they played well into their 40s. I never liked the idea of someone's legacy changing when they are well past their prime. To me, Ichiro is a better contact hitter than Rose and the numbers support that. I don't need him to play until he's 45 and break some record for me to realize that. Where would you peg the end of Rose's prime atthough? He led the league in OBP at age 38. He put up a .391 OBP at age 40. Pretty amazing stuff. http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playe...1&type=full Edited July 22, 2011 by JorgeFabregas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitekrazy Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 QUOTE (JorgeFabregas @ Jul 21, 2011 -> 10:13 PM) Where would you peg the end of Rose's prime atthough? He led the league in OBP at age 38. He put up a .391 OBP at age 40. Pretty amazing stuff. http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playe...1&type=full If any of the "roids" players make in into the Hall, how unfitting to deny Rose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitekrazy Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 QUOTE (danman31 @ Jul 18, 2011 -> 08:57 PM) Career marks are so iffy because it's not as much about the quality of the player, but the fact that they played well into their 40s. I never liked the idea of someone's legacy changing when they are well past their prime. That's why I can't stand the DH. It allows players to pad their stats to get into the Hall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 QUOTE (kitekrazy @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 01:20 PM) That's why I can't stand the DH. It allows players to pad their stats to get into the Hall. When did Pete Rose DH? Frank Thomas's career was probably extended by the better part of a decade thanks to the DH. I'd say there's a good shot he would not be a hall of famer without it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitekrazy Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 11:43 AM) When did Pete Rose DH? Frank Thomas's career was probably extended by the better part of a decade thanks to the DH. I'd say there's a good shot he would not be a hall of famer without it. If that's all he was, I wouldn't put him in the Hall. You never know, he might not make it if he is recognized as a DH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clyons Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 12:43 PM) Frank Thomas's career was probably extended by the better part of a decade thanks to the DH. I'd say there's a good shot he would not be a hall of famer without it. Maybe, but I'd say more like just the last few years, after he broke his foot in '04. He had suffered foot problems before that, but Frank was a DH mainly because he was BAD First Baseman and the White Sox acquired a pretty good one in 1999. He was a pretty tough guy and at one point had a consecutive game streak second only to Ripken. I think he could have and would have found playing time at 1B longer, if there was no DH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 QUOTE (PlaySumFnJurny @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 05:22 PM) Maybe, but I'd say more like just the last few years, after he broke his foot in '04. He had suffered foot problems before that, but Frank was a DH mainly because he was BAD First Baseman and the White Sox acquired a pretty good one in 1999. He was a pretty tough guy and at one point had a consecutive game streak second only to Ripken. I think he could have and would have found playing time at 1B longer, if there was no DH. There's another thing to think about though...Thomas started having health problems fairly early in his career, right? 2000 was a "return to health form" season, then he tore something up pretty bad in 2001. If he had to play 1b, it's hard to figure out how he would have stayed healthy long enough to put up the career numbers that got him to the HOF. He might well have been an incredible 5 year stretch guy who started getting hurt because of his insane body type and never returned to form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 04:58 PM) There's another thing to think about though...Thomas started having health problems fairly early in his career, right? 2000 was a "return to health form" season, then he tore something up pretty bad in 2001. If he had to play 1b, it's hard to figure out how he would have stayed healthy long enough to put up the career numbers that got him to the HOF. He might well have been an incredible 5 year stretch guy who started getting hurt because of his insane body type and never returned to form. Or he could have been the next Sandy Kofax Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 06:00 PM) Or he could have been the next Sandy Kofax If Frank's career had ended at the end of 1999, he'd have left with 301 HR and a 1.013 OPS, 2 MVP's but only with 6 seasons of an OPS above 1.000 in an "offensive" era. He'd be no where close to 500 HR's, 81 fewer than Jim Rice. His last 2 seasons would have had sub-.900 OPS's. Some people might bring him up because of how great his top 3-4 seasons were, but I don't think he ensured himself a spot until he got to 500 HR's and the steroid thing blew up, putting him in an even better light. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 05:28 PM) If Frank's career had ended at the end of 1999, he'd have left with 301 HR and a 1.013 OPS, 2 MVP's but only with 6 seasons of an OPS above 1.000 in an "offensive" era. He'd be no where close to 500 HR's, 81 fewer than Jim Rice. His last 2 seasons would have had sub-.900 OPS's. Some people might bring him up because of how great his top 3-4 seasons were, but I don't think he ensured himself a spot until he got to 500 HR's and the steroid thing blew up, putting him in an even better light. The HOF has made judgments just like that where players careers have been ended very early. I could see Frank being a guy to do it for sure. He was one of the best players in the game during his time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitekrazy Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 04:31 PM) The HOF has made judgments just like that where players careers have been ended very early. I could see Frank being a guy to do it for sure. He was one of the best players in the game during his time. Longevity should not be a major factor, but then again most of them had careers over 12 years. Outside of a pitcher I don't think the Hall should have one dimensional players like DH. Frank wasn't that bad of a 1st baseman. He was better than Lamar Johnson. If Frank left the planet before he became a DH, he would have a good shot. It will be interesting if Munson gets in. I just can't stand the DH. Back in the 80's guys like Eddie Murray would go have a 2nd career in the NL. Now the NL players instead of retiring can swing a bat in the AL and get paid well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danman31 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 QUOTE (JorgeFabregas @ Jul 21, 2011 -> 10:13 PM) Where would you peg the end of Rose's prime atthough? He led the league in OBP at age 38. He put up a .391 OBP at age 40. Pretty amazing stuff. http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playe...1&type=full 38 is one thing. He played until he was 45. Generally, what's the difference between a 31-year-old and a 36-year-old? Quite a lot. Those five years from him being a solid player to him being awful just to get the record is my point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.