4,256 hits

[Cali]

I was thinking about this yesterday with Jeter hitting #3000... Will a player EVER top Pete Rose's hits record?

 

About 5-6 years ago I thought Jeter had a shot. He was constantly getting 200 hits a season, and just seemed like one of those guys that was so consistent making contact and was never really injured. But now he's 37 and just got #3000, and is regressing.

 

Ichiro was another idea, but like Jeter is regressing and getting older. He might not even crack 3000 if he continues this drop. Had he joined the MLB a few years earlier he might have had a chance.

 

To even get to 3,000 or 4,000 for that matter you're gonna need to be very healthy. Be great from the start of your career. Gonna have to average 200 hits a year at least. Can't be much more than a singles doubles guy, someone with big power won't make enough contact... and probably going to have to play 20+ years....

 

That's a tough task right there.

[lostfan]

Of active players, the only one who would even come close is Ichiro if you counted all his hits from Japan.

[Kyyle23]

if ichiro started his career in the US instead of Japan, i think he would have come damn close

[Cali]

If anyone could play until they're in their mid-40's it'd be Ichiro. He may be regressing this season, it may just be one down season we wont really know until next year, but he's out there every day and is extremely healthy. He could keep it going for another 6-7 years and reach 3,000 if he can stay healthy.

 

Ichiro combined between Japan and MLB: 3,623 hits.

 

That is pretty amazing. He'll definitely get to a combined 4,000 before all is said and done and possibly reach Rose's number...

Edited July 10, 2011 by Cali

[whitesoxbrian]

Jeter has more hits now than Rose did at this age. Jeter has a shot.

[Chisoxfn]

If anyone could play until they're in their mid-40's it'd be Ichiro. He may be regressing this season, it may just be one down season we wont really know until next year, but he's out there every day and is extremely healthy. He could keep it going for another 6-7 years and reach 3,000 if he can stay healthy.

 

Ichiro combined between Japan and MLB: 3,623 hits.

 

That is pretty amazing. He'll definitely get to a combined 4,000 before all is said and done and possibly reach Rose's number...

Ichiro is going to have a tough time reaching 3000, let alone 4000. He'll be about 3 years away after this year and 38 years old. That isn't to say he won't, but he has zero chance at 4000. Jeter could put up another couple years and break into the top 10 in hits, but nothing more.

 

The guy who could have had a shot was Arod but he's had tons of injuries and doesn't hit for the average he once did.

 

Rose's record is going to be really tough.

[Texsox]

I don't see anyone in my lifetime.

[Balta1701]

I legitimately think someone will make a run at this mark in our lifetimes. People have made the 2 points already in this thread...if Jeter keeps up his current pace he'll get there...but the thing that will likely stop him is that he'd have to go play somewhere else to get that last season or two in.

 

Ichiro of course is on the pace and would have gotten there had all his Japanese hits been US hits.

 

The fact that we have 2 guys who *could* have done it in the right circumstances means its not unbreachable.

[zirc]

I legitimately think someone will make a run at this mark in our lifetimes. People have made the 2 points already in this thread...if Jeter keeps up his current pace he'll get there...but the thing that will likely stop him is that he'd have to go play somewhere else to get that last season or two in.

 

Ichiro of course is on the pace and would have gotten there had all his Japanese hits been US hits.

 

The fact that we have 2 guys who *could* have done it in the right circumstances means its not unbreachable.

What about Pujols? He's already around 2000 and is only 31. If he plays until 43 or 44 (which is a big if, naturally) he might have a shot at 4000.

[chetkincaid]

Omar Vizquel is 44 years old. If he can play that long then I think Ichiro could too.

Edited July 17, 2011 by Chet Kincaid

[balfanman]

I don't see anyone in my lifetime.

 

Viciedo!

Edited July 18, 2011 by balfanman

[danman31]

Career marks are so iffy because it's not as much about the quality of the player, but the fact that they played well into their 40s. I never liked the idea of someone's legacy changing when they are well past their prime. To me, Ichiro is a better contact hitter than Rose and the numbers support that. I don't need him to play until he's 45 and break some record for me to realize that.

[TheBlackSox8]

Cabrera is going to be close to 1600 hits by the end of the season...he's only 28.

[JorgeFabregas]

Career marks are so iffy because it's not as much about the quality of the player, but the fact that they played well into their 40s. I never liked the idea of someone's legacy changing when they are well past their prime. To me, Ichiro is a better contact hitter than Rose and the numbers support that. I don't need him to play until he's 45 and break some record for me to realize that.

Where would you peg the end of Rose's prime atthough? He led the league in OBP at age 38. He put up a .391 OBP at age 40. Pretty amazing stuff.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playe...1&type=full

Edited July 22, 2011 by JorgeFabregas

[kitekrazy]

Where would you peg the end of Rose's prime atthough? He led the league in OBP at age 38. He put up a .391 OBP at age 40. Pretty amazing stuff.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playe...1&type=full

 

If any of the "roids" players make in into the Hall, how unfitting to deny Rose.

 

[kitekrazy]

Career marks are so iffy because it's not as much about the quality of the player, but the fact that they played well into their 40s. I never liked the idea of someone's legacy changing when they are well past their prime.

 

That's why I can't stand the DH. It allows players to pad their stats to get into the Hall.

 

[Balta1701]

That's why I can't stand the DH. It allows players to pad their stats to get into the Hall.

When did Pete Rose DH?

 

Frank Thomas's career was probably extended by the better part of a decade thanks to the DH. I'd say there's a good shot he would not be a hall of famer without it.

[kitekrazy]

When did Pete Rose DH?

 

Frank Thomas's career was probably extended by the better part of a decade thanks to the DH. I'd say there's a good shot he would not be a hall of famer without it.

 

If that's all he was, I wouldn't put him in the Hall. You never know, he might not make it if he is recognized as a DH.

 

 

[clyons]

Frank Thomas's career was probably extended by the better part of a decade thanks to the DH. I'd say there's a good shot he would not be a hall of famer without it.

 

Maybe, but I'd say more like just the last few years, after he broke his foot in '04. He had suffered foot problems before that, but Frank was a DH mainly because he was BAD First Baseman and the White Sox acquired a pretty good one in 1999. He was a pretty tough guy and at one point had a consecutive game streak second only to Ripken. I think he could have and would have found playing time at 1B longer, if there was no DH.

[Balta1701]

Maybe, but I'd say more like just the last few years, after he broke his foot in '04. He had suffered foot problems before that, but Frank was a DH mainly because he was BAD First Baseman and the White Sox acquired a pretty good one in 1999. He was a pretty tough guy and at one point had a consecutive game streak second only to Ripken. I think he could have and would have found playing time at 1B longer, if there was no DH.

There's another thing to think about though...Thomas started having health problems fairly early in his career, right? 2000 was a "return to health form" season, then he tore something up pretty bad in 2001.

 

If he had to play 1b, it's hard to figure out how he would have stayed healthy long enough to put up the career numbers that got him to the HOF. He might well have been an incredible 5 year stretch guy who started getting hurt because of his insane body type and never returned to form.

[southsider2k5]

There's another thing to think about though...Thomas started having health problems fairly early in his career, right? 2000 was a "return to health form" season, then he tore something up pretty bad in 2001.

 

If he had to play 1b, it's hard to figure out how he would have stayed healthy long enough to put up the career numbers that got him to the HOF. He might well have been an incredible 5 year stretch guy who started getting hurt because of his insane body type and never returned to form.

 

Or he could have been the next Sandy Kofax

[Balta1701]

Or he could have been the next Sandy Kofax

If Frank's career had ended at the end of 1999, he'd have left with 301 HR and a 1.013 OPS, 2 MVP's but only with 6 seasons of an OPS above 1.000 in an "offensive" era. He'd be no where close to 500 HR's, 81 fewer than Jim Rice. His last 2 seasons would have had sub-.900 OPS's.

 

Some people might bring him up because of how great his top 3-4 seasons were, but I don't think he ensured himself a spot until he got to 500 HR's and the steroid thing blew up, putting him in an even better light.

[southsider2k5]

If Frank's career had ended at the end of 1999, he'd have left with 301 HR and a 1.013 OPS, 2 MVP's but only with 6 seasons of an OPS above 1.000 in an "offensive" era. He'd be no where close to 500 HR's, 81 fewer than Jim Rice. His last 2 seasons would have had sub-.900 OPS's.

 

Some people might bring him up because of how great his top 3-4 seasons were, but I don't think he ensured himself a spot until he got to 500 HR's and the steroid thing blew up, putting him in an even better light.

 

The HOF has made judgments just like that where players careers have been ended very early. I could see Frank being a guy to do it for sure. He was one of the best players in the game during his time.

[kitekrazy]

The HOF has made judgments just like that where players careers have been ended very early. I could see Frank being a guy to do it for sure. He was one of the best players in the game during his time.

 

Longevity should not be a major factor, but then again most of them had careers over 12 years. Outside of a pitcher I don't think the Hall should have one dimensional players like DH. Frank wasn't that bad of a 1st baseman. He was better than Lamar Johnson. If Frank left the planet before he became a DH, he would have a good shot. It will be interesting if Munson gets in.

 

I just can't stand the DH. Back in the 80's guys like Eddie Murray would go have a 2nd career in the NL. Now the NL players instead of retiring can swing a bat in the AL and get paid well.

 

[danman31]

Where would you peg the end of Rose's prime atthough? He led the league in OBP at age 38. He put up a .391 OBP at age 40. Pretty amazing stuff.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playe...1&type=full

38 is one thing. He played until he was 45. Generally, what's the difference between a 31-year-old and a 36-year-old? Quite a lot. Those five years from him being a solid player to him being awful just to get the record is my point.