How valuable is SLG when evaluating leadoff?

[Greg Hibbard]

Bear with me here - I'm assuming Pierre can still run SOME. This is not a wild assumption, it does appear as though he had a bad April but is back to stealing bases at a reasonable % since then. Certainly he hasn't lost the ability to go 1st to 3rd. Also, this does not come from my recent need to over-defend Pierre's value to the team, but merely a curiosity about statistics.

 

I've seen a lot of asides in threads recently mentioned upgrades to OPS by 100-200 points in using Viciedo over Pierre. Even if I assume that Viciedo will perform at the level he has previously, I think this overstates the replacement value of Viciedo. I think the slugging component of OPS is a misguided component in evaluating a leadoff hitter's worth, and so I think OPS is the wrong statistic to evaluate our leadoff hitter. I think a modified version of OPS might be ok, but the fact of the matter is that slugging has less to do with the leadoff hitter's traditional role than any other position in a lineup card.

 

Sure, when you have Alfonso Soriano, or some other freakish home run-hitting guy leading off, it's ok to use OPS. However, when you have Scott Podsednik, Juan Pierre, or another little guy with no pop and some wheels, is OPS really telling us the whole story?

 

Slugging is predicated on the concept of a home run, triple and double being worth four times, three times and twice as much respectively as a single. In other places, this has already been challenged ad nauseum, but I'd like to add an additional point. In the case of a slow hitter who can't run, its' is not too poor of an assumption to assume a home run is four times as valuable. There is no intangible way for Paul Konerko or Jim Thome to get from 1st base to 3rd on a single to right field. There is no way they will steal bases. They are not candidates for hit and runs. There is no way to distract the pitcher and maybe have a pickoff throw sail wide anyway.

 

In the case of any leadoff hitter who can run, even a little, there is a component in their game that is not measured by OPS. For example, Juan stole 4 bases in May, with 1 CS. 3 of those SB were after singles and 1 was after a BB. Juan had 39 singles and walks combined in May. Slugging measured those exactly as 1 total base, and yet in 5 of those cases, Juan was actually standing on second base with no completed action from the player behind him. Is SLG then accurately measuring these events? Additionally, if a one-out single is hit into right field, while Paul Konerko might be held at 2nd, a speedy leadoff guy might make third and give the team an opportunity at a sac fly. What is the offensive worth of this?

 

I think because of these factors, merely looking at a .650 or .675 or .700 OPS for a player like Pierre/Podsednik is a misuse of the statistic.

 

 

 

 

[Eminor3rd]

You're correct that OBP is a much better statistic when evaluation a leadoff hitter. But SLG is good in any position. Leadoff hitters that get onbase hitting doubles are better than those that get onbase hitting singles.

[chw42]

SLG is uesful anywhere. But if you want a lineup that produces more runs, you'd much rather have that SLG down in the 4 and 5 spots.

 

OPS is misleading in that it treats SLG and OBP as equals. wOBA corrects for that. OBP is more important than slugging for any hitter.

[BigSqwert]

SLG is uesful anywhere. But if you want a lineup that produces more runs, you'd much rather have that SLG down in the 4 and 5 spots.

 

OPS is misleading in that it treats SLG and OBP as equals. wOBA corrects for that. OBP is more important than slugging for any hitter.

Where do I find a player's wOBA? I can't seem to find it anywhere on baseball reference.

[chw42]

Where do I find a player's wOBA? I can't seem to find it anywhere on baseball reference.

 

FanGraphs.

[BigSqwert]

FanGraphs.

Ah thanks.

[knightni]

The leadoff hitter only leads off once normally. Being able to drive the 7-8-9 guys in would be helpful.

[Balta1701]

The leadoff hitter only leads off once normally. Being able to drive the 7-8-9 guys in would be helpful.

Almost by definition, the 789 guys aren't going to be on base nearly that often. It'd be nice, but what you really want is guys to be on in front of the 345 hitters.

[Eminor3rd]

Extra base hits are good, regardless of whether or not the bases are empty. Every time Jose Reyes leads off with a triple, it makes it easier to drive him in. SLG is great everywhere, but OBP is more important in front of big hitters.

[chw42]

Leadoff men only have guys on base in 36-37% of their plate apperances. Most of that comes from leading off the game (20% of your PAs to begin with), but having a power hitter there kind of wastes his ability to drive in runs with that power.

[gatnom]

Leadoff men only have guys on base in 36-37% of their plate apperances. Most of that comes from leading off the game (20% of your PAs to begin with), but having a power hitter there kind of wastes his ability to drive in runs with that power.

 

Regardless, being able to actually put yourself into position to score with one swing is never a bad thing, even if it's in the form of a solo home run.

 

 

[almagest]

Leadoff men only have guys on base in 36-37% of their plate apperances. Most of that comes from leading off the game (20% of your PAs to begin with), but having a power hitter there kind of wastes his ability to drive in runs with that power.

Giving a guy on your team with lots of power the most at-bats is never a bad idea.

 

[lostfan]

SLG is nice to have, but on a leadoff hitter if he can stay at or near .400 I think I'll be ok with that most of the time. If he has that and an average OBP of .350 that means his OPS is .750, which is respectable.

 

If your leadoff hitter's OPS is higher than .800 and he still steals a lot of bases he's probably something like an All-Star.

[witesoxfan]

Leadoff men only have guys on base in 36-37% of their plate apperances. Most of that comes from leading off the game (20% of your PAs to begin with), but having a power hitter there kind of wastes his ability to drive in runs with that power.

 

At some point though, you need to have a good hitter leading off because they will receive the most plate appearances. Juan Pierre is a perfect 9 hitter because he gets on base fairly well, has good contact skills (those work particularly well in hit and run situations, which is actually when you want to run those to try to creatively score runs) , and has the speed to "scare" a pitcher, if you will.

 

Understanding what I do about Viciedo, he seems like a perfect 5 hitter. That leaves Pierre, Rios, or Dunn on the bench. I think there is a timeshare that goes on, but knowing all of that, I think Quentin makes the most sense leading off. He runs well enough, gets on base well, is in scoring position quite often, has instant production possibilities, and may perhaps relax when he doesn't have anyone in front of him potentially trying to steal. He has a great eye but loves to drill the first pitch. He will have that opportunity because pitchers love to start a take with a strike.

 

My thoughts.

[chw42]

At some point though, you need to have a good hitter leading off because they will receive the most plate appearances. Juan Pierre is a perfect 9 hitter because he gets on base fairly well, has good contact skills (those work particularly well in hit and run situations, which is actually when you want to run those to try to creatively score runs) , and has the speed to "scare" a pitcher, if you will.

 

Understanding what I do about Viciedo, he seems like a perfect 5 hitter. That leaves Pierre, Rios, or Dunn on the bench. I think there is a timeshare that goes on, but knowing all of that, I think Quentin makes the most sense leading off. He runs well enough, gets on base well, is in scoring position quite often, has instant production possibilities, and may perhaps relax when he doesn't have anyone in front of him potentially trying to steal. He has a great eye but loves to drill the first pitch. He will have that opportunity because pitchers love to start a take with a strike.

 

My thoughts.

 

Oh I'm not saying good hitters shouldn't lead off. I'm saying that ideally, you don't want a 30 HR guy in the leadoff spot (like Soriano a couple years back) if you have better options. For instance, I'd much rather have Alexei leadoff than Quentin. Given that the majority of Quentin's value as a hitter comes from his ability to get extra base hits. With Alexei's mediocre walk-rate and his ability to hit for a good average, his OBP is at least average for a leadoff hitter when he's hitting well.

 

If I could have my way, I'd use this lineup.

 

1. SS Ramirez

2. C Pierzynski

3. LF Viciedo

4. 1B Konerko

5. RF Quentin

6. DH Dunn

7. 2B Beckham

8. CF Rios

9. 3B Morel

 

At this point, there's nobody that's hitting well enough to hit second, which is one of the most important spots in the lineup. Of course I'd love to have Konerko or Quentin hitting 2nd, but then you're risking a lot of run production. So A.J. gets that spot by default. Konerko is by far your best hitter with the most power, thus you give him the best chance at driving in runs with the 4th spot (nearly half of the cleanup hitter's PAs are with men on base). Quentin and Viciedo are interchangeable. I assume Viciedo's going to hit for a higher average, so it'd be smarter to hit him 3rd. Dunn has to hit somewhere. Out of Rios, Beckham, Morel, and Dunn, I feel like Dunn is still the most dangerous out of the bunch. Beckham has been far better than Rios and Morel this year and with a history of hitting well in the second half, I feel like he should be given the 7th spot. Morel is probably the worst overall hitter on the team. No power, no patience, so he'd naturally be hitting last.

[chw42]

Giving a guy on your team with lots of power the most at-bats is never a bad idea.

 

The idea of lineup optimization is to get the most out of the guys you're dealt with. If your team only has two good power hitters like the Sox do, it's not smart to hit one of them in the leadoff spot. Solo homers are fine to me too, but I'd rather see a 2 run home or a 3 run homer, wouldn't you?

[WHITESOXRANDY]

Slugging is very valuable especially in the AL ! The leadoff guy only starts the game once. And, in the NL he always follows the pitcher - not so in the AL.

 

That's why it was nice having Pods here in 2009. He had some pop and was a cluth hitter and drove in a lot of big runs. I believe he had 50 some RBI's and that was with missing some games.