southsider2k5 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/7/22/2288555/...ox-indians-news Who Will Win The AL Central (or, Why This Weekend Is Huge For Four Teams) Minnesota Twins' Joe Mauer hits a single, advancing Alexi Casilla to third base, against Cleveland Indians pitcher Tony Sipp in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Genevieve Ross) Bookmark and Share By Marc Normandin - Contributor With four teams fighting for supremacy in the American League Central facing off this weekend, now is the time to wonder just who will come out on top in the race for October baseball. Follow @sbnbaseball on Twitter, and Like Baseball Nation on Facebook. Jul 22, 2011 - The American League Central is a mess. The Royals are out of it, but the fourth-place Twins are just six back and facing the division-leading Tigers this weekend -- and at the same time that the half-game-out, second-place Indians take on the third-place White Sox. These two series won't answer all the Central's questions, but they could change the dynamic in a hurry. The Twins looked dead in the water, not long ago. Despite expectations they would contend, injuries to key players and ineffectiveness from others dropped them to 17-37 on June 1, 16-1/2 games out of first place. Since then, Minnesota has gone 29-15. Alexi Casilla, who struggled early, has hit .281/.337/.404 during that stretch to stabilize second base. Joe Mauer hasn't hit for power (.370 slugging), but he's batted .324 with nearly a .400 OBP since June 1. The real star on offense for the Twins has been Michael Cuddyer and his .342/.426/.596 line. He has been the centerpiece for an offense that hasn't hit nearly as much as it was expected to, thanks to Mauer's problems and little production from Justin Morneau. It's the pitching that has brought them back into this, though. The highest Run Average since June 1 is Nick Blackburn's 5.36, but everyone else is contributing: Carl Pavano (3.37), Francisco Liriano (4.13), Brian Duensing (3.42) and ace Scott Baker (2.57) have been strong. The bullpen has also been solid, especially now that Joe Nathan has his velocity and control back. The Twins have a legitimate chance in the Central. That just goes to show you how wide open the division is. The Indians have gone in the opposite direction since June 1. They were 33-20 then, but have gone 18-26 since. This isn't a shock, as Cleveland never looked like they had the horses to stay in this race. Look no further than their starters for proof: the rotation is Justin Masterson (2.97 RA, 2.5 K/BB, and the lowest HR/9 in the league courtesy of 56 percent grounders) and then ... well, nothing. Fausto Carmona hasn't been dependable since 2007. Even with a 1.1 BB/9, Josh Tomlin's ERA+ is jut 92 -- an increase in free passes would mean disaster for an already below-average hurler. Carlos Carrasco may be the team's second-best starter, and that's because he's the only one besides Masterson within striking distance of the league-average K-rate. Mitch Talbot? Well, he's Mitch Talbot. Those 51 wins are already in the books, though. The way the Central is going, .500 ball the rest of the way might be enough. The White Sox are betting on that strategy, too. Their offense is as awful as Cleveland's pitching, but they have arms to lean on. Jake Peavy's injuries and 5.19 ERA make him look like a waste, but his peripherals are solid (3.4 K/BB); if he can stay on the mound, there's plenty to like. The White Sox are first in the AL in Fair Run Average. They have mostly hovered around .500, but a seven-game losing streak in mid-April helped push them to 11 games under .500 on May 6. They are 36-29 since, a pace that could be good enough to win the division on the strength of their pitching alone. The team most likely to come away with the division crown is the one leading it today, though. The Tigers have the fourth-highest TAv in the majors, and are above-average by wRC+ as well. The offense has some holes, but their productive hitters have been fantastic: Rk Pos G PA 2B 3B HR BA OBP SLG OPS+ 1 C Alex Avila* 82 314 19 3 10 .279 .365 .487 139 2 1B Miguel Cabrera 98 414 23 0 20 .315 .432 .561 179 4 SS Jhonny Peralta 88 343 17 3 15 .317 .364 .533 151 8 RF Brennan Boesch* 90 375 24 0 14 .297 .352 .491 136 9 DH Victor Martinez# 83 334 24 0 6 .318 .365 .456 131 Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 7/22/2011. Throw in that Brandon Inge (38 OPS+) has been pushed to the minors after the Wilson Betemit trade (110 OPS+) and the offense figures to be even better down the stretch. The Tigers also pitch well enough to win with that offense. They are middle-of-the-pack in FRA, but have Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer to lead the rotation. Scherzer's peripherals indicate he is better than his poor 4.53 ERA, but Brad Penny (3.8 K/9, 1.4 K/BB) and Rick Porcello (5.2 K/9, 2.1 K/BB) haven't inspired the same confidence in a second-half rebound. The fifth spot has been troublesome, too, with Phil Coke, Charlie Furbush, Andy Oliver, and now Duane Below all getting shots in the slot. As long as they continue to hit, they should be able to overcome that, but wrapping up the division would be easier if they could depend on more than two starters each time through the rotation. Between their high-powered offense and average pitching, the Tigers seem the easy pick for the Central title. The White Sox are the only other team with a stellar component, but their pitching has to make up for an anemic offense, while the Tigers' hitting just has to carry an average staff, giving Detroit an edge over the rest. They have a chance to widen the lead this weekend, with all four of these clubs facing each other, and if they start to pull away, they might never look back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soxsoxsoxsox Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 good read. here's hoping we do some work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maggsmaggs Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 I am fairly confident the Tigers will win the division. In my opinion, it's: 50% - Tigers 30% - Indians 15% - Twins 05% - White Sox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Jul 22, 2011 -> 08:59 PM) I am fairly confident the Tigers will win the division. In my opinion, it's: 50% - Tigers 30% - Indians 15% - Twins 05% - White Sox The Twins seem to get rejuvenated only when they play us. Because we keep revitalizing them I'll give my rankings. Tigers 45 percent. Twins 40 percent Tribe 10 percent Sox 5 percent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elrockinMT Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 We will win the division Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vote4Pedro Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jul 22, 2011 -> 06:30 PM) We will win the division thats a big negative we will finish 4th in the division it will be Detroit 65% Cleveland 25% Minnesota 10% Chicago -10%......if that is at all possible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jul 23, 2011 -> 12:30 AM) We will win the division That would be nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 23, 2011 Author Share Posted July 23, 2011 The one thing I am sure of is that Detroit will not win the division. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 22, 2011 -> 10:54 PM) The one thing I am sure of is that Detroit will not win the division. And that would be kinda sad. Considering the other three teams in the running suck ass. It'll be like a bye week for the Yankees or Red Sox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 23, 2011 Author Share Posted July 23, 2011 QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jul 22, 2011 -> 11:07 PM) And that would be kinda sad. Considering the other three teams in the running suck ass. It'll be like a bye week for the Yankees or Red Sox. Detroit sucks ass just as much as anyone else in this division. They have Verlander and Cabrera and 23 levels of suck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleHurt05 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 22, 2011 -> 10:54 PM) The one thing I am sure of is that Detroit will not win the division. Really? Then who will? I'd say the Sox but they are 4-5 games back of DET and they will have trouble making that up and DET is better than the tribe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleHurt05 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 22, 2011 -> 11:12 PM) Detroit sucks ass just as much as anyone else in this division. They have Verlander and Cabrera and 23 levels of suck. Yeah, but they have a lead over the other two good teams in the division. The Twins & the Sox need to make up those deficits to win it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 22, 2011 -> 11:12 PM) Detroit sucks ass just as much as anyone else in this division. They have Verlander and Cabrera and 23 levels of suck. They could throw Verlander out there twice in the ALDS. That alone gives them a chance against anybody. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleHurt05 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jul 22, 2011 -> 11:15 PM) They could throw Verlander out there twice in the ALDS. That alone gives them a chance against anybody. Yeah, but they still have to win the divison with Penny, D. Below, and whoever else to make the playoffs. Luckily for them, the Sox offense isnt putting up much of a fight anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swingandalongonetoleft Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 (edited) I like percentages. Tigers- 40% Twins- 35& Indians- 20% Carolina Panthers- 4% Royals- .9% White Sox- negative infinity I actually hate percentages, and all math, in fact- but giving a s***ty team that has for the most part kept pace in a s***ty division a 5% chance of winning is nothing else but contrived, and it's a pretty tired thing to do. I'm disappointed the team is where it is as much as anyone, but until the Twins finally leapfrog everyone, I'm not too worried, cause they all suck. If it isn't the Twins, whoever it is will stumble like a blacked out drunk into the playoffs. For the record I think the Twins or Tigers win it. Edited July 23, 2011 by Swingandalongonetoleft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulstar Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 22, 2011 -> 11:12 PM) Detroit sucks ass just as much as anyone else in this division. They have Verlander and Cabrera and 23 levels of suck. They probably have the best offense in the Central. .300 hitter after .300 hitter. Pitching, however, is another story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 QUOTE (Paulstar @ Jul 23, 2011 -> 06:10 AM) They probably have the best offense in the Central. .300 hitter after .300 hitter. Pitching, however, is another story. Yes, but you don't need good pitching to beat us? If you can score 4 runs, you beat us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 They don't have .300 hitters stacked up in their line-up. They do have the best hitter in baseball, Cabrera, and V-Mart (whose power is down but so was Juan Gonzalez in that park). The All-Star catcher in Avila hitting 8th, Boesch and then Peralta and we know how good Carlos Guillen can be against us when he's actually healthy. That leaves 3B (which they're in the process of addressing), Magglio Ordonez and Austin Jackson as the 3 "weak" points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soxrwhite Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Piching wins and the white sox have the best in this division. White Sox pull away easy by the end. Ok I'm a sentimental Sox fan and probably dreaming, but............could happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleHurt05 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 QUOTE (Paulstar @ Jul 23, 2011 -> 01:10 AM) They probably have the best offense in the Central. .300 hitter after .300 hitter. Pitching, however, is another story. They had three .300 hitters in their lineup Friday. (I'm not including Guillen since he has 21 ABs) Their top 3 hitters had averages of .243, .218, .240 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 23, 2011 Author Share Posted July 23, 2011 QUOTE (Paulstar @ Jul 23, 2011 -> 01:10 AM) They probably have the best offense in the Central. .300 hitter after .300 hitter. Pitching, however, is another story. All hitting and no pitching... That usually doesn't work out well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulstar Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 23, 2011 -> 05:55 AM) They don't have .300 hitters stacked up in their line-up. They do have the best hitter in baseball, Cabrera, and V-Mart (whose power is down but so was Juan Gonzalez in that park). The All-Star catcher in Avila hitting 8th, Boesch and then Peralta and we know how good Carlos Guillen can be against us when he's actually healthy. That leaves 3B (which they're in the process of addressing), Magglio Ordonez and Austin Jackson as the 3 "weak" points. They have 3 guys currently above .300 (Cabrera, VMart, and Peralta), 3 more on the border (Boesch, Avila, and Betemit), and 2 more who are usually damn good hitters when healthy (Ordonez and Guillen). And Ordonez has risen his average I think 30 points already since the Sox played the Tigers. Honestly, if they get Beltran (I don't see it happening, but who knows) or Austin Jackson gets healthy and breaks out of the sophomore slump... they could wind up with the best offense in the league come August. And with Verlander, they need two or three starters to get hot to be scary, and that is a legit possibility with the talent they have in that rotation with Porcello and Scherzer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 23, 2011 Author Share Posted July 23, 2011 QUOTE (Paulstar @ Jul 23, 2011 -> 03:09 PM) They have 3 guys currently above .300 (Cabrera, VMart, and Peralta), 3 more on the border (Boesch, Avila, and Betemit), and 2 more who are usually damn good hitters when healthy (Ordonez and Guillen). And Ordonez has risen his average I think 30 points already since the Sox played the Tigers. Honestly, if they get Beltran (I don't see it happening, but who knows) or Austin Jackson gets healthy and breaks out of the sophomore slump... they could wind up with the best offense in the league come August. And with Verlander, they need two or three starters to get hot to be scary, and that is a legit possibility with the talent they have in that rotation with Porcello and Scherzer. You can't make excuses for their guys as a part of their overall projection, and then dismiss our own guys who are in the same boats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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