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Ken Williams considers youth movement


whitesoxfan101

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http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/...h-movement-team

 

I think this is just a bunch of hot air from Kenny since he isn't much for firesales or youth movements, not to mention his job (among many others) very well may be on the line based on how the rest of this season goes. To me, this is just KW trying to motivate the team. Maybe you disagree, though. Either way, interesting read.

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QUOTE (whitesoxfan101 @ Jul 25, 2011 -> 10:51 PM)
http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/...h-movement-team

 

I think this is just a bunch of hot air from Kenny since he isn't much for firesales or youth movements, not to mention his job (among many others) very well may be on the line based on how the rest of this season goes. To me, this is just KW trying to motivate the team. Maybe you disagree, though. Either way, interesting read.

 

I figure that they go on a little run this week and he trades Viciedo and reed for some vet. KW doesn't believe in youth movements. He didn't in 07, he won't now.

Edited by southsideirish71
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QUOTE (southsideirish71 @ Jul 25, 2011 -> 09:55 PM)
I figure that they go on a little run this week and he trades Viciedo and reed for some vet. KW doesn't believe in youth movements. He didn't in 07, he won't now.

 

Yeah, I already have some anger saved, bottled, and ready to be released for the inevitable Dayan for a crappy veteran past his prime trade.

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QUOTE (southsideirish71 @ Jul 25, 2011 -> 10:55 PM)
I figure that they go on a little run this week and he trades Viciedo and reed for some vet. KW doesn't believe in youth movements. He didn't in 07, he won't now.

I'd cry. Doubtful though. Kenny's not dumb.

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QUOTE (southsideirish71 @ Jul 25, 2011 -> 10:55 PM)
I figure that they go on a little run this week and he trades Viciedo and reed for some vet. KW doesn't believe in youth movements. He didn't in 07, he won't now.

 

He's had plenty of chances to trade Dayan. The whole "He's gonna trade Dayan" is just trite.

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With Rios, Dunn and Konerko and Peavy on the books for a couple of years and AJ probably impossible to move with his $6 million coming next year, a full blown youth movement isn't happening. He may try to step back a bit and diminish expectations, but IMO the only reason why would be to buy himself some time. I think he's starting to feel the heat. If you've ever listened to his "as long as I sit in this chair" speeches, rebuilding isn't mentioned. Its reloading. I also agree, he isn't trading Viciedo unless its for something huge.

 

 

Edited by Dick Allen
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 26, 2011 -> 07:17 AM)
With Rios, Dunn and Konerko and Peavy on the books for a couple of years and AJ probably impossible to move with his $6 million coming next year, a full blown youth movement isn't happening. He may try to step back a bit and diminish expectations, but IMO the only reason why would be to buy himself some time. I think he's starting to feel the heat. If you've ever listened to his "as long as I sit in this chair" speeches, rebuilding isn't mentioned. Its reloading. I also agree, he isn't trading Viciedo unless its for something huge.

 

Dunn may be the only player of that group that is unmovable. The rest could be moved depending on the amount of money the Sox are willing to take on. If you are getting pre-arb players in return it would make sense to eat some money, especially in the case of AJ.

 

If KW were to hold a firesale -

 

Konerko is the top 1B on the market - SF could desparately use him, Yanks need a DH, Rangers, Braves and Dbacks all need a 1B

MB and Danks are the top two LHP's - Yanks, Cardinals, Rangers, Reds, Red Sox all need help

Quentin is the top Corner outfielder - mostly due to his contract status - Phillies, Braves, Rangers, Pirates and Giants all need OF help - Yanks need a DH

Edwin Jackson is a top 10 SP on the market - Brewers, Yanks and Red Sox could use a rental

Thornton is the top LHRP on the market - See the return George Sherrill got for the O's in his walk year

Crain would be very valuable to teams worried about the skewed stats of SD relievers

AJP would be the best offensive catcher available - Pirates need a C

 

 

Beckham would be one of the top 2B on the market (thin crop) but it would be selling low - not getting moved

Alexi (wont be traded) would be far and away the best SS on the market - going nowhere

 

If they were to turn over the roster I would imagine that Santos. Ramirez and Beckham would stay. Dunn would probably remain as DH or 1B as well because of his contract situation and the reality that you would only get pennies back on your dollar of investment. Lilli could play CF, De Aza in LF and Viciedo in RF. The team probably is the worst in the Central this season but depending on what level of talent KW gets back they might not be that far away.

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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jul 26, 2011 -> 09:48 AM)
Dunn may be the only player of that group that is unmovable. The rest could be moved depending on the amount of money the Sox are willing to take on. If you are getting pre-arb players in return it would make sense to eat some money, especially in the case of AJ.

 

If KW were to hold a firesale -

 

Konerko is the top 1B on the market - SF could desparately use him, Yanks need a DH, Rangers, Braves and Dbacks all need a 1B

MB and Danks are the top two LHP's - Yanks, Cardinals, Rangers, Reds, Red Sox all need help

Quentin is the top Corner outfielder - mostly due to his contract status - Phillies, Braves, Rangers, Pirates and Giants all need OF help - Yanks need a DH

Edwin Jackson is a top 10 SP on the market - Brewers, Yanks and Red Sox could use a rental

Thornton is the top LHRP on the market - See the return George Sherrill got for the O's in his walk year

Crain would be very valuable to teams worried about the skewed stats of SD relievers

AJP would be the best offensive catcher available - Pirates need a C

 

 

Beckham would be one of the top 2B on the market (thin crop) but it would be selling low - not getting moved

Alexi (wont be traded) would be far and away the best SS on the market - going nowhere

 

If they were to turn over the roster I would imagine that Santos. Ramirez and Beckham would stay. Dunn would probably remain as DH or 1B as well because of his contract situation and the reality that you would only get pennies back on your dollar of investment. Lilli could play CF, De Aza in LF and Viciedo in RF. The team probably is the worst in the Central this season but depending on what level of talent KW gets back they might not be that far away.

If we're turning over the roster with a firesale...and the best outfield we end up with is Lilli, deAza and viciedo...I'm pissed. We better get some better talent to throw out there even this year.

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QUOTE (heirdog @ Jul 26, 2011 -> 10:31 AM)
If we're turning over the roster with a firesale...and the best outfield we end up with is Lilli, deAza and viciedo...I'm pissed. We better get some better talent to throw out there even this year.

If you completely turn over the roster, that's pretty much what you actually want to do...you put the guys out there that are either cheap/developmental or are guys who for whatever reason no one else wanted. We don't have an obvious star to put out there, so let's see what these guys can do...if 1 of the 2 of them puts up solid numbers in a full season, then you've found yourself a cheap starting OF off the scrap heap, and you can use the savings from that guy to fill in the other hole when you're in a better place to compete.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 26, 2011 -> 10:36 AM)
If you completely turn over the roster, that's pretty much what you actually want to do...you put the guys out there that are either cheap/developmental or are guys who for whatever reason no one else wanted. We don't have an obvious star to put out there, so let's see what these guys can do...if 1 of the 2 of them puts up solid numbers in a full season, then you've found yourself a cheap starting OF off the scrap heap, and you can use the savings from that guy to fill in the other hole when you're in a better place to compete.

 

But wouldn't all the major talent the Sox give up (konerko, buehrle, quentin, etc) net at least some higher ceiling players than Lilli or DeAza...I would want to see those types (I.e. Rasmus) or even Jordan Danks, Mitchell etc. Lilli is a nice utility player and DeAza a decent 4th OF.

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QUOTE (heirdog @ Jul 26, 2011 -> 10:42 AM)
But wouldn't all the major talent the Sox give up (konerko, buehrle, quentin, etc) net at least some higher ceiling players than Lilli or DeAza...I would want to see those types (I.e. Rasmus) or even Jordan Danks, Mitchell etc. Lilli is a nice utility player and DeAza a decent 4th OF.

Not necessarily...if you do the sale right, you don't necessarily target MLB-ready players, because MLB-ready-ness has a higher price than total talent.

 

Teams get far bigger steals targeting low level players who won't arrive for a few years, or guys who are otherwise undervalued. That's how the Twins got so much for Pierzynski; Liriano was an injury risk in the low minors and no one thought Nathan was a closer. That's how the Indians got Carlos Santana for Casey Blake, Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez, etc.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 26, 2011 -> 10:45 AM)
Not necessarily...if you do the sale right, you don't necessarily target MLB-ready players, because MLB-ready-ness has a higher price than total talent.

 

Teams get far bigger steals targeting low level players who won't arrive for a few years, or guys who are otherwise undervalued. That's how the Twins got so much for Pierzynski; Liriano was an injury risk in the low minors and no one thought Nathan was a closer. That's how the Indians got Carlos Santana for Casey Blake, Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez, etc.

 

Great point, thanks. Then I will patiently await Jon gilmore's rise and hope he is the steal of the Vasquez deal with ATL.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 26, 2011 -> 09:45 AM)
Not necessarily...if you do the sale right, you don't necessarily target MLB-ready players, because MLB-ready-ness has a higher price than total talent.

 

Teams get far bigger steals targeting low level players who won't arrive for a few years, or guys who are otherwise undervalued. That's how the Twins got so much for Pierzynski; Liriano was an injury risk in the low minors and no one thought Nathan was a closer. That's how the Indians got Carlos Santana for Casey Blake, Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez, etc.

 

The strikeout rate is WAY higher for those kind of guys though. The Sox would be set back 10 years plus if they guys they got didn't produce quickly.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 26, 2011 -> 11:07 AM)
The strikeout rate is WAY higher for those kind of guys though. The Sox would be set back 10 years plus if they guys they got didn't produce quickly.

Really, the more I think about it, the more I'm uncertain about the bust rate on AAA guys. How many top level guys have we seen be the key parts of trades over the past few years but then wind up not producing once they reach the show? LaPorta comes immediately to mind. Delmon Young took years before he wound up putting up an .800 OPS. Justin Smoak is hitting .227 with a .720 OPS. Kyle Drabek put up a 1.79 WHIP.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 26, 2011 -> 10:11 AM)
Really, the more I think about it, the more I'm uncertain about the bust rate on AAA guys. How many top level guys have we seen be the key parts of trades over the past few years but then wind up not producing once they reach the show? LaPorta comes immediately to mind. Delmon Young took years before he wound up putting up an .800 OPS. Justin Smoak is hitting .227 with a .720 OPS. Kyle Drabek put up a 1.79 WHIP.

dont forget Andy Marte. that guy was supposed to be a monster

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 26, 2011 -> 10:11 AM)
Really, the more I think about it, the more I'm uncertain about the bust rate on AAA guys. How many top level guys have we seen be the key parts of trades over the past few years but then wind up not producing once they reach the show? LaPorta comes immediately to mind. Delmon Young took years before he wound up putting up an .800 OPS. Justin Smoak is hitting .227 with a .720 OPS. Kyle Drabek put up a 1.79 WHIP.

 

Versus the bust rate on A ball guys? That doesn't even make sense.

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