The Physics of Dunn's Swing

[witesoxfan]

Then why aren't the Orioles winning right now?

 

This is a fun debate, even if a lot of it is rehashed. The Sox are very much in a stage of limbo right now, and the next 2 months are pretty much going to dictate the next 5 years of the organization.

 

But, to this point, I truly believe that the Orioles are the one organization I can pretty much say without a doubt are worse at developing players than the Sox. Even Nick Markakis, who looked like a surefire star, if not superstar, has become a glorified singles hitter. How? Why? Some organization that knows how to get results out of players is going to pick him up and turn him back into a 25 homer threat, and Baltimore is going to be none the wiser because they are not going to have any idea why it happened. If Texas can find the money, they might be the perfect destination for him.

 

To develop any sort of sustainable success in today's game, you do need to develop from within. That is true of most major sports today (with the NBA being the lone possible exception...even then, there has to be some sort of foundation before you can bring in the superstar talent). You simply cannot build a team through free agency and big time acquisitions - it has to be a slow and steady process, trying to get better and better each and every year in both developing the minor league system, the major league team, and finding a happy medium where the organization can still end in the black at the end of the year. And, along that same line of thought, there has to be enough talent that you can have replacements from within for the major league team but enough value in the minors that you can make a trade if need be.

[SoxAce]

He has been back plenty to brag. I don't know how you missed it honestly.

 

As he should be. In fact... IMO he hasn't bragged enough on this board.

[JohnCangelosi]

As he should be. In fact... IMO he hasn't bragged enough on this board.

Now the curiosity is driving me nuts. Who was it?

[Jordan4life_2007]

Now the curiosity is driving me nuts. Who was it?

 

WHITESOXRANDY! I don't know if it was a case of him just throwing s*** at the wall...but he looks like a genius so far. He wanted no part of Dunn from the moment we signed him.

[JohnCangelosi]

WHITESOXRANDY! I don't know if it was a case of him just throwing s*** at the wall...but he looks like a genius so far. He wanted no part of Dunn from the moment we signed him.

Thanks. Yes, indeed, he looks like a genius. I'd say everyone on this board loved the move, and based on stats, why wouldn't you?

[LittleHurt05]

WHITESOXRANDY! I don't know if it was a case of him just throwing s*** at the wall...but he looks like a genius so far. He wanted no part of Dunn from the moment we signed him.

 

I'm sure even he didn't predict the worst batting season in recent MLB history.

[LittleHurt05]

I only caught the last 3 innings, but that 8th inning AB vs. Sabathia may have been the ugliest AB I have ever seen in my life.

[LVSoxFan]

Does anybody have whitesoxrandy's original post about this? I would love to see that. I do remember some people were saying nooooooo! but the consensus was total excitement about Dunn.

 

I would have to say: well-played, Sir! I can say that my baseball freak co-worker had doubts too, although those were mostly about him being NL.

[southsider2k5]

@Buster_ESPN Most 3-strikeout games in majors this year: Adam Dunn, 18; Austin Jackson, 9, Ryan Raburn 9; Curtis Granderson, Miguel Olivo 8.

[TheBlackSox8]

@Buster_ESPN Most 3-strikeout games in majors this year: Adam Dunn, 18; Austin Jackson, 9, Ryan Raburn 9; Curtis Granderson, Miguel Olivo 8.

Thanks.....just threw up in my mouth a little.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Does anybody have whitesoxrandy's original post about this? I would love to see that. I do remember some people were saying nooooooo! but the consensus was total excitement about Dunn.

 

I would have to say: well-played, Sir! I can say that my baseball freak co-worker had doubts too, although those were mostly about him being NL.

 

Here's the original thread. I'm not about to look through it to find his posts. http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=79910

 

I will say there were more than a few that weren't crazy about the signing. But Randy was the most vocal.

[Steve9347]

@Buster_ESPN Most 3-strikeout games in majors this year: Adam Dunn, 18; Austin Jackson, 9, Ryan Raburn 9; Curtis Granderson, Miguel Olivo 8.

[LVSoxFan]

Found it!

 

Here's his original post:

 

I don't mind Dunn being the DH but I can't believe how much the Sox overpaid for him. s***.

 

When you consider that the Sox could get a much better hitter like Vlad Guerrero on a two or three year deal at $ 6-7 mil per or even Thome on a 1 year deal for $ 4-5 mil. and Thome's better at 41 than Dunn is at 31.

 

There's just no way that Dunn as a DH and not even close to being one of the best hitters in baseball or even a valuable player should command $ 14 mil. per year. Pujols will get $ 25 mil. per and if he was only a DH he would get much less and he's three times the hitter.

 

It's just a huge overpayment. And, now how do the Sox convince Konerko to take less money than Dunn when he is clearly a far better baseball player.

 

It's pretty sad to flip through that thread about the Dunn trade--how excited people were about it, and what it turned out to be.

[southsider2k5]

That is way tamer than I remembered. He just said we overpayed, not that Dunn sucked. He even said he didn't mind him being the DH.

[LVSoxFan]

Maybe it was on another thread? I went through all 50 pages and this was all I found. Man, the overpaying part couldn't have been more right-on though.

[JohnCangelosi]

Found it!

 

Here's his original post:

 

I don't mind Dunn being the DH but I can't believe how much the Sox overpaid for him. s***.

 

When you consider that the Sox could get a much better hitter like Vlad Guerrero on a two or three year deal at $ 6-7 mil per or even Thome on a 1 year deal for $ 4-5 mil. and Thome's better at 41 than Dunn is at 31.

 

There's just no way that Dunn as a DH and not even close to being one of the best hitters in baseball or even a valuable player should command $ 14 mil. per year. Pujols will get $ 25 mil. per and if he was only a DH he would get much less and he's three times the hitter.

 

It's just a huge overpayment. And, now how do the Sox convince Konerko to take less money than Dunn when he is clearly a far better baseball player.

 

It's pretty sad to flip through that thread about the Dunn trade--how excited people were about it, and what it turned out to be.

I recall a quote along the lines of "mark my words, this will be the biggest bust in White Sox history" type of thing. I could be wrong, but I remember a statement along those lines.

[LVSoxFan]

Maybe I missed it or maybe somebody else said it? Because I manually searched all 50 pages.

 

But yes, I do remember the naysayers and unfortunately, if he never turns it around not only would this be the biggest bust in WS history but probably one of the worst in BASEBALL history.

[southsider2k5]

I recall a quote along the lines of "mark my words, this will be the biggest bust in White Sox history" type of thing. I could be wrong, but I remember a statement along those lines.

 

that is much more along the lines of what I was thinking too.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I recall a quote along the lines of "mark my words, this will be the biggest bust in White Sox history" type of thing. I could be wrong, but I remember a statement along those lines.

 

You're probably right. But there's no way to know what thread in which Randy totally let it go. I assumed it was the original Adam Dunn thread.

[elgonzo4sox]

The physics of the swing are that the longer the arc of the swing, the longer it takes the bat to travel to and through the hitting zone.

The length of the arc is determined in part by the length of the batter’s arms and the length of his bat. The longer his arms and his bat, the longer the arc.

A tall player, with long arms, can reduce the length of the arc by choking up.

Choking up also provides that added advantage of increasing the hitter’s control of the bat.

 

A big strong guy like Dunn could choke up, reduce the length of the arc, increase his bat control, and still hit the ball a very long way.

 

The greater number of times that a guy that big and strong can make contact, the greater the number of times a ball has a chance to leave the park.

 

Why is this not obvious to baseball people?

 

He should choke up, and then emulate Konerko’s short and quick swing.

 

This thread is interesting but I'll return to the original topic, the physics of Dunn's swing, to offer my view. I think the physics of his swing are a huge contributor to his problems. The solutions are easy (see below) if Dunn were a kid or instructable, but since he is a veteran with many prior seasons of success, I don't know if Dunn's problems can be fixed. The Sox are not trying the solutions you'd use with a kid.

 

You are absolutely right - Dunn has possibly the longest swing in the major leagues, measuring the total distance traveled by the end of his bat from the start of his swing through the hitting zone (follow through doesn't matter because once the bat leaves the hitting zone nothing more can happen). He's very tall, has long arms, stands away from the plate (unlike Q), uses a long bat, holds it at the knob, and swings with full arm extension. He starts with the bat way back and swings in a huge on-plane arc.

 

Dunn's swing is properly termed a "long" swing. Some people mistakenly say Dunn's bat is slow, because it takes him so long to get his bat from the starting position through the hitting zone (and yes, this is indeed a huge problem for Dunn). However, "bat speed" refers to the speed of the bat as measured when it is in the hitting zone. Dunn's bat speed is plenty high when it is in the hitting zone, which is why he can hit 450 foot home runs if/when he actually makes contact.

 

Dunn also waggles the bat downward (below horizontal) at the start of the swing, a "signature" move that is nearly as bad as Rios's hands-held-low stance, because it means they have to get the bat out of this poor position when they start their swings, which also takes time. Dunn and Rios would say their signature moves are for their comfort and timing purposes, but I would say that moving out of those positions determines the start of their swing, so they've lengthened their swings.

 

A super long swing like Dunn's has only one benefit: when he connects solidly with the ball, the bat speed is great and the ball goes a long distance. It has multiple drawbacks, some obvious, some less so:

 

-- The most obvious drawback is the amount of time it takes to get Dunn's bat into the hitting zone. The longer this time, the earlier Dunn has to make the decision to swing at a pitch, and the earlier Dunn has to judge where the ball is going to be when the ball enters the hitting zone. The result: many more swings and misses, or swings and fouls, or swings and weirdly hit balls that spin wildly into the field of play - and far fewer balls that are hit solidly (one can argue that every time Dunn hits a ball solidly that it should go over the fence, so he's only hit 10 balls solidly so far this season).

 

-- This also creates a huge hole in Dunn's swing: he becomes very susceptible to pitchers with deceiving off-speed stuff, because Dunn has to decide very early to swing. Pitchers know this, and can easily set Dunn up, as CC Sabathia did three times last night, by striking Dunn out on outside sliders nearly in the dirt which Dunn missed by a foot because he had already decided to swing very early in the pitch.

 

-- Dunn's swing is also completely on-plane, which is good for generating bat speed but bad for adjusting to how the pitch is coming towards the plate - in fact he doesn't adjust at all. If the ball isn't exactly where Dunn thought it was going to be when he started his swing, he has 0% chance of hitting it. Many, many other hitters are able to follow the ball to a certain degree and try to make contact - in fact this is exactly what good contact hitters do, sometimes by even throwing their bat at the ball if the hit-and-run is on - but they sacrifice bat speed to do this adjustment during the swing.

 

-- Dunn never varies his swing no matter what the count or the game situation. He doesn't shorten his swing with two strikes. He doesn't try to go to the opposite field when the shift is on. He swings one way, all the time, every time. The opposing pitcher and defense know this, and take advantage of it by putting on the shift.

 

For connoisseurs of hitting, the contrast between Dunn and a good power hitter like Paulie is night and day. Dunn's swing is a simple-minded power swing that never varies. Paulie is a much smarter hitter with completely different mechanics and much better results. Paulie is often able to work the count into his favor by making better judgments on what pitches to swing at, which gets him into more hitter's fastball counts. If behind, Paulie adjusts his swing to try to go to the opposite field or take what the pitcher gives him. AJ also adjusts well to the count, the game situation and the pitch, and he able to get more hits because of his adjustments. Dunn neither adjusts for the count or the game situation (by changing the stance or swing he decides to use) or during the pitch (by changing the bat path during the swing to make better contact).

 

I coach kids, and the solutions to Dunn's problems are easy:

 

1. SHORTEN THE SWING. Get rid of the waggle. Try starting with the bat 1/4th of the way towards the plate from Dunn's current starting position and only move the bat forward, never backward. Stand closer to the plate and choke up, especially with two strikes. Don't swing for the fences. Watch the ball and move the bat to meet the ball as the ball comes towards the plate.

 

There's no way to turn Adam Dunn into Rod Carew, and these changes will decrease bat speed and power. Dunn doesn't need to do all of these, but he should try some of them to certain degrees. 320 foot home runs into the right field porch at Yankee Stadium count every bit as much as 450 foot ones and are actually better, since a shorter swing gives you a better chance of actually connecting and hitting the ball 320 feet instead of 450.

 

It's been four months, and if there have been any changes or adjustments to Dunn's swing, I haven't seen them.

 

2. REDUCE THE PRESSURE ON DUNN BY BATTING HIM LOWER IN THE LINEUP AND SITTING HIM AGAINST PITCHERS HE HAS TROUBLE WITH (i.e. lefties). When you're struggling, the added pressure of coming to the plate in key game situations with men on base and a skeptical crowd aggravates the hitter's struggles. No Little League, high school, college or even AAA manager would continue to bat Dunn in the cleanup position after four months of nearly constant struggles and no signs of improvement.

 

So why aren't the Sox doing any of this?

 

I think the Sox and Dunn are afraid to make any fundamental swing changes for fear of causing greater problems (which is hard to imagine) and for fear of losing Dunn's power. Instead the approach taken by Dunn and Greg Walker has been to try to tweak things (like balance) to try to get Dunn back to the ideal Adam Dunn simple-minded long power swing that worked in the past. It's been four months, and it hasn't worked yet. Every single pitcher in the AL knows Dunn is struggling, and they are taking advantage of it.

 

I think the Sox are also afraid of the hit to Dunn's psyche if Ozzie were to bat him lower in the lineup. Yes confidence is very important in hitting and a necessary component of even being able to stand in a batter's box while Justin Verlander throws 100 mph fastballs within a foot of your torso. But I think Dunn has proven that he doesn't react well to pressure (all his prior success has been on second-tier NL teams with zero expectations for winning), so I would move to reduce the pressure and give him the opportunity to start building up some confidence by having some minor successes.

 

 

I wish the Sox and Dunn would change something. Right now I fear we're doomed for another month of Dunn's struggles until Viciedo finally comes up when the rosters expand, and then Ozzie will finally sit Dunn a little bit.

 

[LVSoxFan]

GREAT post. But your point about moving him in the lineup and Ozzie's refusal to do that, for the sake of Dunn's psyche?

 

For f***'s sake, most people have talked about benching him or sending him down (not gonna happen I know) and his psyche can't handle a simple drop in the order?

 

Another reason to question Ozzie.

[elgonzo4sox]

GREAT post. But your point about moving him in the lineup and Ozzie's refusal to do that, for the sake of Dunn's psyche?

 

For f***'s sake, most people have talked about benching him or sending him down (not gonna happen I know) and his psyche can't handle a simple drop in the order?

 

Another reason to question Ozzie.

 

You're right in that a fragile psyche is not a good sign about Dunn. Now we're moving out of the physical realm into the mental, but I do think it's a bad sign that the Sox are afraid of damaging Dunn's psyche. Contrast that with the Tiger's Brandon Inge, who was also struggling this year (hence Detroit's acquisition of Betemit), and who accepted going on waivers and being reassigned to AAA to try to straighten out his hitting problems.

 

However, I do think that Kenny and Ozzie discussed how to handle Dunn, and Dunn's continued presence in the 3-4-5 hole is a joint decision. Both have given Dunn public votes of confidence. Dunn's presence on the roster is certainly more Kenny's doing than Ozzie's, and although Ozzie does indeed fill out the lineup card, I think both he and Kenny decided keep him up in the lineup as a vote of confidence. There's no way to know for sure, of course, until one of them publishes a tell-all book about their White Sox career years from now. I do think that Adam Dunn is the #1 story of the 2011 season, and it's not a good one, unfortunately.

[LVSoxFan]

My point is that if his psyche is so fragile he can't handle a simple drop in the lineup, then he's mentally weak. So we're totally screwed.

 

At this point KW's and Ozzie's hesitance to drop him looks more like enabling.

[elgonzo4sox]

My point is that if his psyche is so fragile he can't handle a simple drop in the lineup, then he's mentally weak. So we're totally screwed.

 

At this point KW's and Ozzie's hesitance to drop him looks more like enabling.

 

I tend to agree, except I'll withhold final judgment for a bit longer. Dunn may not be Chicago Tough - he may be Chicago Fragile.

 

Kenny says he likes to get guys who are Chicago Tough, so I wonder how he decided that Dunn was.

[Paulie4Pres]

The White Sox: Where good hitters comes to die.

 

Most of this team has developed "long" swings. What happened to Beckham? You watch him when he first came up, and now, and his swing has regressed into the toilet. Main reason he can't catch up to fastballs. Dunn has always had a long swing, but it seems even longer this season... if that was even possible. Rios is an absolute disaster up at the plate, and I don't recall seeing him swing this way when he was raking a for half a season....

 

Really, Walker needs to go. If he's not actually having a negative effect on hitters with his advice, he's CERTAINLY not helping them.

Edited August 3, 2011 by Paulie4Pres